Bolsonaro loses power in Brazil.

[Cowley]

Well that was tight!

Lula da Silva narrowly beats Jair Bolsonaro to win Brazil election

The count was close - veteran leftist Mr da Silva polled 50.8% of votes, compared with 49.2% for Mr Bolsonaro, the far-right incumbent.

news.sky.com

I must admit that I’m quite relieved about this…

It has been Brazil's most polarised election in recent memory, pitting far-right incumbent President Bolsonaroagainst leftist former leader Lula da Silva.

On his victory, Mr da Silva tweeted a simple picture of his hand over the Brazilian flag and the word: "Democracy."

 

[Flying Snail]

It was looking more and more likely that dispicable scum would win, hopefully da Silva can roll back the worst of the awful damage Bolsonaro has done.

No doubt neither him or his supporters will accept the result and kick-off Trump style.

 

[Giugiaro]

50,8% is a scarily close call!

Is it me, or are we, more and more, having extremely important votes ending up like this?

 

[brad465]

If Trump or another like-minded President assumes power, prepare for a US-backed military coup to get Bolsonaro back in. The US have a history in meddling in South America in such a way, the most prominent perhaps being Pinochet in Chile.

 

[najaB]

If Trump or another like-minded President assumes power, prepare for a US-backed military coup to get Bolsonaro back in.

Not going to happen. While Bolsonaro has his supporters in the military, the generals are lukewarm to him at best.

Is it me, or are we, more and more, having extremely important votes ending up like this?

Yes, it's a symptom of increasing polarisation and the decline of the centre. There will be a reset soon, maybe within the next ten years. I just hope that it's not through another world war.

 

[GS250]

Not going to happen. While Bolsonaro has his supporters in the military, the generals are lukewarm to him at best.

Yes, it's a symptom of increasing polarisation and the decline of the centre. There will be a reset soon, maybe within the next ten years. I just hope that it's not through another world war.

I agree there will be some kind of political 'reset' in the future. Not so sure a war would create a reset to what are seen as the present 'centrist' values though. A non nuclear World War would very much decimate economies and lead to a very socialist outcome. Governments would be making complusary purchases, the tax dodging elite may finally get their comeuppance. They would also be very dictatorial towards citizens too. In effect you will be told what to do. When bombs are falling on the UK any 'rights' are secondary. Socially though....things would veer to the right. There would be little time for anti social behaviour or crime. The state would have to be severe and would probably implement martial law to reduce vigilante groups from forming. Any groups of people who were perceived to not be acting in the national interest would no doubt be targeted of which could increase racial or social boundaries and lead to extremist groups forming.

As far as Bolsonaro goes, definitely genuine hard right. His reaction to covid was one end of the spectrum and was seen as pretty poor really. However, his polar opposites that went totally overboard with restrictions may also suffer vote wise with their economies hit harder.

 

[DanNCL]

Good riddance. Trump - gone. Johnson - gone. Le Pen - kept out of power. Bolsonaro - gone. It's a huge relief to see the hard right no longer doing so well in elections across the globe.

 

[GS250]

Good riddance. Trump - gone. Johnson - gone. Le Pen - kept out of power. Bolsonaro - gone. It's a huge relief to see the hard right no longer doing so well in elections across the globe.

Johnson hard right?? Compared with who exactly.

Bolsonaro was probably genuine hard right. Trump obviously too. Johnson is nowhere near these two over virtually everything.

 

[DanNCL]

Johnson hard right?? Compared with who exactly.

All the UK PMs that came before him, or at least those in living memory.

Bolsonaro was probably genuine hard right. Trump obviously too. Johnson is nowhere near these two over virtually everything.

Johnson copied stuff straight out of the Trump handbook and adapted them to suit his needs. Illegally proroguing parliament, ignoring international treaties, allowing standards in public life to drop lower than they’ve been for decades. Many of his policies might not have as hard right as those of Trump and Bolsonaro (and for that matter Orban too), but he took a lot out of the Trump handbook in terms of actions.

 

[Bevan Price]

Good riddance. Trump - gone. Johnson - gone. Le Pen - kept out of power. Bolsonaro - gone. It's a huge relief to see the hard right no longer doing so well in elections across the globe.

I would not bet against Trump winning again in 2024. Much as many of us hate what he stands for, there are plenty of USA Republicans who love him and his policies.

 

[Busaholic]

Good riddance. Trump - gone.

If only - even his death, no matter how it occurred, almost inevitably would lead to outrages committed by those in thrall to his cult, whipped up by the criminals he surrounds himself with. The fact there is silence from Bolsonaro doesn't bode well: is he waiting for some incendiary remarks from Trump to be widely aired before he decides what to do next? It'll be Bolsonaro stooge ministers attending the COP summit in a few days time, so there might be indications there.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

All the UK PMs that came before him, or at least those in living memory.

Oh come off it! Johnson bore much responsibility for Brexit, which was something that tended to be supported by both the hard right and (to a lesser extent) the hard left. That seems to have got him a bad name in the political centre, but almost nothing about his policies was hard-right. There was very little politically in common between him and Trump/Bolsonaro apart from a belief in capitalism and the market economy.

Johnson copied stuff straight out of the Trump handbook and adapted them to suit his needs. Illegally proroguing parliament, ignoring international treaties, allowing standards in public life to drop lower than they’ve been for decades.

That makes him a populist and arguably somewhat dishonest. But it doesn't make him hard right. What defines someone as hard right is the policies s/he believes in and enacts, not whether she/he campaigns in a populist/dishonest manner.

50,8% is a scarily close call!

Is it me, or are we, more and more, having extremely important votes ending up like this?

Back to the thread topic I get the impression that the closeness of the result was because Lula is himself also a rather divisive figure, whom many believe to be corrupt. I'm guessing that the winning margin might've been bigger if the left had been able to come up with a more inclusive, centre-left, candidate. But I don't know enough about Brazilian politics to know if there were any suitable and sufficiently popular such candidates.

 

[gnolife]

Good riddance. Trump - gone. Johnson - gone. Le Pen - kept out of power. Bolsonaro - gone. It's a huge relief to see the hard right no longer doing so well in elections across the globe.

It's a shame that Orban's still in in Hungary.

 

[GS250]

It's a shame that Orban's still in in Hungary.

Why? Are Hungarians not fit to choose their own leader?

 

[brad465]

Why? Are Hungarians not fit to choose their own leader?

Hungarians probably are, but their democratic systems do not seem robust. The latest Democracy index reading scores them 6.5, towards the bottom end of "Flawed Democracy", compared to the UK's 8.1 "Full Democracy". Hungary has also been on a downward trend over the years; it was 7.53 in 2006.

Johnson hard right?? Compared with who exactly.

Bolsonaro was probably genuine hard right. Trump obviously too. Johnson is nowhere near these two over virtually everything.

All the UK PMs that came before him, or at least those in living memory.


Johnson copied stuff straight out of the Trump handbook and adapted them to suit his needs. Illegally proroguing parliament, ignoring international treaties, allowing standards in public life to drop lower than they’ve been for decades. Many of his policies might not have as hard right as those of Trump and Bolsonaro (and for that matter Orban too), but he took a lot out of the Trump handbook in terms of actions.

John Burn-Murdoch did an FT Opinion piece during Truss' short tenure that revealed she was even further to the right than not only Johnson, but US Republicans and Bolsonaro. He gave Johnson a score of around 7, Truss 9.5, US Reps just over 8 and Bolsonaro 9, where 1 is far-left and 10 is far-right:

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on.ft.com

Obviously Truss' far-right ideology didn't work, evidenced by the fact she isn't in office anymore and is now the PM with the shortest premiership in the UK.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Obviously Truss' far-right ideology didn't work, evidenced by the fact she isn't in office anymore and is now the PM with the shortest premiership in the UK.

The caption on that chart makes it clear that it is measuring how right wing a party is on economic policies. It doesn't say how it's measuring left-right, but on a quick glance at it, the results don't seem way out to me when seen in that light (although I'd question the US Democrats being economically more left wing than Labour). However, it says nothing about most of the stuff that you'd normally associate with the label 'far right' - cultural attitudes, social conservatism, lack of respect for democracy, militarism, etc. It seems highly misleading to talk about groups as being 'far right' if you're not considering those things - as illustrated by that Fidesz (a party that many would consider far right, and which considers itself right wing) is shown as about level with the UK Labour Party on the left-right spectrum!

 

[AlterEgo]

I would normally associate “far right” with extreme social and nationalistic policies, not bonkers economic libertarianism.

 

[brad465]

The caption on that chart makes it clear that it is measuring how right wing a party is on economic policies. It doesn't say how it's measuring left-right, but on a quick glance at it, the results don't seem way out to me when seen in that light (although I'd question the US Democrats being economically more left wing than Labour). However, it says nothing about most of the stuff that you'd normally associate with the label 'far right' - cultural attitudes, social conservatism, lack of respect for democracy, militarism, etc. It seems highly misleading to talk about groups as being 'far right' if you're not considering those things - as illustrated by that Fidesz (a party that many would consider far right, and which considers itself right wing) is shown as about level with the UK Labour Party on the left-right spectrum!

There was also this chart in the same article, which sort of covers "social values", but other than that it mainly covered economics:


It shows Labour in the left wing economic and generally having Libertarian/progressive social values, while the Conservatives are close to halfway between the two ends, although tilted more towards Authoritarian/traditional social values.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There was also this chart in the same article, which sort of covers "social values", but other than that it mainly covered economics:

View attachment 122947
It shows Labour in the left wing economic and generally having Libertarian/progressive social values, while the Conservatives are close to halfway between the two ends, although tilted more towards Authoritarian/traditional social values.

That seems plausible to me IF the 2022 Tory placement refers to the Liz Truss period. I'd put Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak pretty close to their 2019 point. It also seems to me to confirm that the Tories are not what you'd normally consider 'far right' since to my mind that term would imply something very close to the top of the graph on the right hand side, and with added anti-democratic tendencies (not measured).

On a side note, that I find it interesting that LibDem voters tend to be less libertarian/progressive than Labour voters. That suggests to me that the LibDems (who try to push themselves as very strongly progressive) are also out of touch with their supporters in that area. So basically none of the main parties are where their supporters are.

 

[GS250]

I would normally associate “far right” with extreme social and nationalistic policies, not bonkers economic libertarianism.

There was a great example of this in Germany many moons ago.

Economically very socialist but everything else very far right Indeed.

 

[Busaholic]

There was a great example of this in Germany many moons ago.

Economically very socialist but everything else very far right Indeed.

Just because a political party/movement describes itself as National Socialist doesn't mean the main tenets of socialism are followed: it just wants to control every aspect of society i.e. enforce a totalitarian state. The equivalent today are the so-called free speech 'libertarians' like Musk and Trump who demand free speech for themselves without limits and not subject to any laws moderating their content in any way, but wish to imprison, intimidate or worse anyone who disagrees with them or stands up to them.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Why? Are Hungarians not fit to choose their own leader?

If only there were fair elections there. Fidesz have built a system that is corrupt to the core, although they're now experiencing problems with the EU cash turned off. If the European Union suspends all payments to Hungary, then Orban will have serious problems. His entire political system is built on corruption, and it won't last if the Hungarian government has to pay for the corruption from the state budget.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Nov 2022 ==

But I don't know enough about Brazilian politics to know if there were any suitable and sufficiently popular such candidates.

The major issue is that there really isn't anyone with Lula's personal support. Having said that, Bolsonaro must be deeply, deeply afraid of what comes next: he imprisoned Lula in a kangaroo trial, and now the same will be coming for him.

Having said that, Bolsonaro really represented the worst of right wing politics: a constant obsession with alleged Christianity, but then doing everything against the religion that he claimed to support.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

From a UK perspective, what impact is 'Lula' da Silva's presidential election victory in Brazil likely to have for us?

 

[najaB]

From a UK perspective, what impact is 'Lula' da Silva's presidential election victory in Brazil likely to have?

Very little immediately. But in his last term his economic policies were very much focused on sustainable development and social justice. So expect the protections on the Amazon to be strengthened and for a reasonable approach to any trade negotiations with Brasil.

 

[Broucek]

Johnson hard right?? Compared with who exactly.

Agreed. I'm quite fed up with people using that term carelessly. Boris has faults but he's clearly not "far right" by any reasonable standard

 

[Cowley]

Just to say that there is actually a recent thread covering the politics in Hungary here:

Viktor Orban's Hungary

Inspired by the discussion elsewhere with @nw1 , I thought I'd start a thread on this. I was referring to Orban himself, and his Fidesz party, having these attitudes, not the Hungarian people. The impression I've got from people I know who have visited Hungary is that the people were friendly...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Cloud Strife]

As I wrote above: Bolsonaro is clearly terrified of what comes next. The Guardian says the same: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/01/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-election-silence-lula

Observers believe that after leaving power Bolsonaro could find himself exposed to a multitude of possible investigations and charges relating to fake news, anti-democratic behaviour, alleged corruption and his handling of a Covid pandemic which killed nearly 700,000 Brazilians.

“He is clearly afraid of prison … so what he’s trying to do is negotiate with the only card he has left, which is big street protests,” Traumann said.

On Tuesday night Bolsonaro was reportedly locked in talks with at least six members of the supreme court as part of that supposed negotiation. One prominent political journalist, Guilherme Amado, said the president planned to “request that neither he nor his family be persecuted” once he stepped down.

It is a sign of the strength of Brazil's democracy that Bolsonaro's allies have accepted the result quickly. I wasn't expecting it, but it shows that even a far-right strongman is only as strong as the people around him.

 

[Flying Snail]

As I wrote above: Bolsonaro is clearly terrified of what comes next. The Guardian says the same: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/01/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-election-silence-lula



It is a sign of the strength of Brazil's democracy that Bolsonaro's allies have accepted the result quickly. I wasn't expecting it, but it shows that even a far-right strongman is only as strong as the people around him.

I would say it's a sign of the weakness of the country's democracy if he gets the highest judges in the country to give him a get out of jail card and walk away from any consequences for his crimes.

 

[Broucek]

I would say it's a sign of the weakness of the country's democracy if he gets the highest judges in the country to give him a get out of jail card and walk away from any consequences for his crimes.

I have mixed feelings about this. In an ideal world there might be consequences. In the real world, a lack of severe consequences enables a bad leader to step away relatively peacefully which is usually a good thing for the country

 

[birchesgreen]

Few countries exist in this "ideal world", leaders and seldom politicians seldom face the consequences for their actions. Some even end up on reality shows...