Birmingham to Manchester to Avanti?

[Topological]

Many threads have been written about the best way to solve the CrossCountry train lengths. The fact that Birmingham to Manchester is under wires often comes up.

Splitting services to run EMUs from Manchester requires two more terminating trains in Birmingham and presents a challenge.

However, could Avanti run the service as an extension of London trains?

Currently, there are Avanti from London arriving into Birmingham New Street at 27, 48* and 56 minutes past (though not every hour at all 3). Given the departures to Manchester are 30 and 01, these line up.

In the opposite direction there are arrivals from Manchester at 33 and 56 with the departures being at 17 21* and 47. The 33 lines up ok with the 47, but admittedly the other slot does not work as well.

* is the path usually from the North West/Scotland.

Manchester to Bristol is at xx:42
Manchester to Reading/Bournemouth is at xx:03

Bristol to Manchester arrives at xx:18
Bournemouth/Reading to Manchester arrives at xx:51

It would need a dedicated platform at Birmingham since you have the 51 forming the 03 and the 18 arrival forming the 42. It has been said that the 12 minutes turn around for the Reading would be too tight, so that may well be the biggest issue with this plan.

Is there a solution within this?

 

[The Planner]

Many threads have been written about the best way to solve the CrossCountry train lengths. The fact that Birmingham to Manchester is under wires often comes up.

Splitting services to run EMUs from Manchester requires two more terminating trains in Birmingham and presents a challenge.

However, could Avanti run the service as an extension of London trains?

Currently, there are Avanti from London arriving into Birmingham New Street at 27, 48* and 56 minutes past (though not every hour at all 3). Given the departures to Manchester are 30 and 01, these line up.

In the opposite direction there are arrivals from Manchester at 33 and 56 with the departures being at 17 21* and 47. The 33 lines up ok with the 47, but admittedly the other slot does not work as well.

* is the path usually from the North West/Scotland.

Manchester to Bristol is at xx:42
Manchester to Reading/Bournemouth is at xx:03

Bristol to Manchester arrives at xx:18
Bournemouth/Reading to Manchester arrives at xx:51

It would need a dedicated platform at Birmingham since you have the 51 forming the 03 and the 18 arrival forming the 42. It has been said that the 12 minutes turn around for the Reading would be too tight, so that may well be the biggest issue with this plan.

Is there a solution within this?

Bournemouth and Bristols interwork, unless its recently changed. Do Avanti have the units and you would have to join up 390 fast paths unless you are suggesting 800s run them.

 

[Topological]

Bournemouth and Bristols interwork, unless its recently changed. Do Avanti have the units and you would have to join up 390 fast paths unless you are suggesting 800s run them.

They do at Manchester, though as they would not reach Manchester that is less of a concern. It MAY also make it easier to keep double units on the Reading to Birmingham section if there is no interworking with the quieter Manchester to Bristols (where the xx:12 from Brimingham is the often doubled XC on the route).

Avanti, I am not sure. Depends on the second Liverpool I guess. I also did not calculate whether there would be any other options for interworking with the current Euston to Manchester to save a diagram. It is more an alternative to a dedicated Manchester to Birmingham EMU that I was exploring.

Can 80x keep time in the Cross Country paths between Birmingham and Manchester? (An outsider thought would be yes since XC do not use tilt).

 

[Bletchleyite]

If I was looking for something to do with 807s if the second Liverpool was off permanently, then I'd have Avanti take over Manchester to Scotland from TPE. The 5 car sets they use are way under capacity on many journeys.

Perhaps then chuck XC the 397s to use on Manchester-Birmingham as pairs.

Without the 807s being spare Avanti wouldn't have enough units to do this.

 

[185]

The big question is passenger numbers. Does Manchester - 'beyond Brum passengers' ie West Country or Oxford justify two trains per hour? I think not.

Thus, the other service on the half hour Manc-Birm & Cov should quickly be passed to another operator to resolve the XC overcrowding and staffing issue.

Either a new WMT service to mirror it's Liverpool, or an Avanti extension as suggested above.

Squat little 4-car (ie just 3 car of standard plus a handful of first class seats) DMUs do not belong in Manchester, (much the same as TFWs 2-car disasters on the Cardiffs).

 

[JamesT]

The big question is passenger numbers. Does Manchester - 'beyond Brum passengers' ie West Country or Oxford justify two trains per hour? I think not.

Thus, the other service on the half hour Manc-Birm & Cov should quickly be passed to another operator to resolve the XC overcrowding and staffing issue.

Either a new WMT service to mirror it's Liverpool, or an Avanti extension as suggested above.

Squat little 4-car (ie just 3 car of standard plus a handful of first class seats) DMUs do not belong in Manchester, (much the same as TFWs 2-car disasters on the Cardiffs).

But it's not 2tph from Manchester to Oxford. It's 1tph if we're lucky and often that's the only direct Oxford to Birmingham service.

It's mentioned above that Manchester to Bristol/Bournemouth interwork. If the Manchester to Birmingham part was hived off to another operator with electric rolling stock, could the XC turn into Bristol to Bournemouth via Birmingham to retain the connectivity and avoid having to terminate in New Street?

 

[185]

But it's not 2tph from Manchester to Oxford. It's 1tph if we're lucky and often that's the only direct Oxford to Birmingham service.

It's mentioned above that Manchester to Bristol/Bournemouth interwork. If the Manchester to Birmingham part was hived off to another operator with electric rolling stock, could the XC turn into Bristol to Bournemouth via Birmingham to retain the connectivity and avoid having to terminate in New Street?

Manchester-Oxford or Reading simply doesnt warrant an hourly train, therefore perhaps one Bristol one Reading every alternate hour.

If they were travelling beyond Reading, in most cases they would have to change anyway.

The high majority of passengers from Manc/Stpt/Macc/Stoke/Stafford are travelling to Wolves, Birmingham or Coventry. Direct trains should be retained, but reduced in frequency to make them fit for purpose, with the other large 'new' electric train used to take the weight off them.

 

[FlyingPotato]

Manchester-Oxford or Reading simply doesnt warrant an hourly train, therefore perhaps one Bristol one Reading every alternate hour.

If they were travelling beyond Reading, in most cases they would have to change anyway.

The high majority of passengers from Manc/Stpt/Macc/Stoke/Stafford are travelling to Wolves, Birmingham or Coventry. Direct trains should be retained, but reduced in frequency to make them fit for purpose, with the other large 'new' electric train used to take the weight off them.

Can I ask what data you used to come to this conclusion?
And remember that the trains go to Bournemouth not just Reading

 

[Topological]

But it's not 2tph from Manchester to Oxford. It's 1tph if we're lucky and often that's the only direct Oxford to Birmingham service.

It's mentioned above that Manchester to Bristol/Bournemouth interwork. If the Manchester to Birmingham part was hived off to another operator with electric rolling stock, could the XC turn into Bristol to Bournemouth via Birmingham to retain the connectivity and avoid having to terminate in New Street?

The present paths favour a return to where it came from approach. You can see in the OP.

It seems I have overestimated Avanti capacity to offer the service. Ordering more 807s is not a solution since that is basically the same as CrossCountry ordering an 80x and carrying on.

Whether London Midland could carry on through with the 350/2s that are going off lease is another open one.

Maybe one of each (Avanti and London Midland)?

 

[The Planner]

Manchester-Oxford or Reading simply doesnt warrant an hourly train, therefore perhaps one Bristol one Reading every alternate hour.

If they were travelling beyond Reading, in most cases they would have to change anyway.

The high majority of passengers from Manc/Stpt/Macc/Stoke/Stafford are travelling to Wolves, Birmingham or Coventry. Direct trains should be retained, but reduced in frequency to make them fit for purpose, with the other large 'new' electric train used to take the weight off them.

Based on what evidence?