AVP, EMD and COR: How successful has their first year been?

[starlightEXPRESS]

A number of new stations have been opened in the eighteen months or so. I was wondering how well they had fared in terms of passenger numbers, given that they have opened during a recession. Specifically I'm interested in Aylesbury Vale Parkway (AVP), East Midlands Parkway (EMD) and Corby (COR), given that EMD and COR have been given a relatively poor timetable and that the housing estate which AVP was due to serve has not yet been constructed. Mitcham Eastfields (MTC), Shepherd's Bush (SPB) and the Ebbw Valley line are also relatively recent openings/reopenings.

 

[The Planner]

Ebbw Vale beat its passenger forecasts by two years. East Midlands had tumbleweed blowing around the place when I last went, even if it is a well built and designed station with flash underfloor heating !!. Id imagine AVP to have done alright aswell, its catchment area is pretty vast even if the estates arent fully built (which is wasnt built to solely serve.)

 

[gingerheid]

I expect some of the people using AVP would have used Aylesbury before?

Not one of last year's new lines, but Stirling - Alloa continues to go from strength to strength too

 

[devon_metro]

Presumably Ebbsfleet International also has tumbleweed floating about!

 

[starlightEXPRESS]

The station usage figures for the year 2008-09 are now out and are available to download from here:

http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/server/show/nav.1529

Further to my earlier posts in this thread, here are the passenger numbers for the five stations which opened during the 08-09 year...

1) Alloa - 338,762 (New terminus for Croy Line, hourly off peak service to Glasgow Queen Street)
2) Shepherds Bush - 247,798 (3 tph in each direction on West London Line)
3) Mitcham Eastfields - 199,244 (2 tph to+from Victoria and 2 tph on FCC Wimbledon loop in each direction)
4) East Midlands Parkway - 48,420 (2 tph to+from St Pancras and 1 tph Leicester - Lincoln service in each direction)
5) Aylesbury Vale Parkway - 13,058 (1 tph to+from Marylebone off peak)

So Alloa is the runaway winner, despite having a relatively poor off peak service frequency. Interestingly Mitcham Eastfields seems to have had only a limited impact on Mitcham Junction (interchange with Tramlink and only a mile to the south). Passenger numbers at MIJ fell from 362,217 (in 07-08 ) to 316,466 (in 08-09) - a decrease of only 12.5%.

I imagine both EMT and Chiltern will be very disappointed with the performance of EMD and AVP, which goes to show that you can't build a new station in the middle-of-nowhere and expect people to pay to use it!

 

[Mojo]

AVP has opened before all the houses around it have been built, and several years ahead of plan, so I think that is to be expected.

I've always thought East Midlands Parkway was a stupid station and a bit of a ghost town, although when I was there last Sat quite a few (maybe about 20 people) got off an evening train from London, although there were delays.

 

[jopsuk]

Alloa is a simple one to explain, despite it being a half-hourly service- the train takes less than ten minutes to Stirling, compared to the over twenty for the buses. I think the train might even be cheaper? Amusingly though this is a case of First Scotrail competing (mainly) with First Bus.

 

[ChrisCooper]

It's quite funny considering all the talk there was on what effect East Midlands Parkway would have on Loughborough, less passengers, less trains, at very least the loss of the "fast" London trains, and almost certainly the loss of the "Skylink" bus to the airport. Just under 50,000 uses at the Parkway though is nothing to the over 1.5million uses at Loughborough, more than 30x less. That's with the same service (2TPH London, 1TPH Leicester-Lincoln). Hardly a surprise though. The few times I've been on a train that's stopped at the Parkway there have at most been a couple of people getting on or off. Other than late at night it's rare to see Loughborough station not very well used. Of cource people were never likely to go back on themselves to travel north to the parkway instead of using Loughborough. Perhaps more likely to be effected were Beeston and Long Eaton, but both of these show an increase from last year, as have Nottingham and Derby.

 

[starlightEXPRESS]

Interestingly I've found a BBC story which claims 250,000 passengers in EMD's first year. Five times more than the official ORR figures released last week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8480162.stm

Presumably the BBC article is written from an official EMT press release...? Which figure is correct? My feeling would be that the ORR statistics are probably more reliable!

 

[A60K]

Surely these ORR figures only cover a part year, depending on when the station opened, rather than being annualised projected numbers?

If not, then that would mean that Aylesbury Vale Parkway only had an average of one passenger arriving and one passenger departing per train - 13,058 passengers/365 days/18 hours.

 

[Greenback]

Surely these ORR figures only cover a part year, depending on when the station opened, rather than being annualised projected numbers?

If not, then that would mean that Aylesbury Vale Parkway only had an average of one passenger arriving and one passenger departing per train - 13,058 passengers/365 days/18 hours.

Yes, that's right, usage over whatever period the station was open.

 

[shinkansen1966]

The only times I have used East Midlands Parkway is with the Megabus plus service. Passengers change here between EM trains and Megabus connections to Yorkshire. And this is the impression I have of the station: the budget travel interchange.

 

[gingerheid]

Slightly OT, but would you mind me asking how many people using megabusplus change at EMD? Are the buses to it busy?

 

[swissrailpassion]

I read somewhere that Alloa was expected to have 100,000 journeys in it's first year and estimates of costs/benefits were based on that figure. So it is splendid that the actual figures are over 3 times higher.
This begs a few questions about the effectiveness of transport planning projections. If the Dft are getting it this wrong at Alloa and also Ebbw Vale, then how many more schemes are seen as financially unviable by the Dft when, in fact, they would stand a much better chance of progression with more accurate projections of passenger use.

 

[A60K]

That's a good question - I think many reopenings have had their potential passenger numbers underestimated, going back to the Bathgate line in 1986.

There have been a few reopening projects that attracted less passengers than forecast (original Corby for example), but most I think match or significantly exceed projected passenger numbers.

 

[Royston Vasey]

You didn't mention Stratford International, but when I was there in the morning rush hour a couple of weeks ago, there was fairly heavy footfall coming off the London-bound trains, although only a handful getting on country-bound.

 

[route:oxford]

I read somewhere that Alloa was expected to have 100,000 journeys in it's first year and estimates of costs/benefits were based on that figure. So it is splendid that the actual figures are over 3 times higher.
This begs a few questions about the effectiveness of transport planning projections. If the Dft are getting it this wrong at Alloa and also Ebbw Vale, then how many more schemes are seen as financially unviable by the Dft when, in fact, they would stand a much better chance of progression with more accurate projections of passenger use.

With the Alloa line, you have to wonder if estimates had been more accurate whether it would have been built as double rather than single track...

Certainly start to wonder what the patronage would be like if the line was reopened (for passenger use) all the way through to Dunfermline.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

Parkway stations do not need to be built near settlement. They need to be built near transport networks so that motorists are tempted away from driving into the congested areas. For this to work, a parkway station has to have a reasonably good frequency of trains. Unfortunately, East Midlands doesn't and passenger numbers will continue to be low until this is rectified despite the huge potential (Leicester, Derby, Nottingham, London, Sheffield) and the excellent transport links nearby (M1, M42, A50, A6, East Midlands airport).

 

[Geezertronic]

... and the excellent transport links nearby (M1, M42, A50, A6, East Midlands airport).

A42 to be pedantic