Aviation Discussion

[Tetchytyke]

a UK-based airline, IMO it is at much greater risk than its rivals Ryanair and Wizz Air, because of Brexit.

EasyJet have a Swiss subsidiary (and an Austrian one too, as @cactustwirly has pointed out) so if the ordure does hit the air cooling device then they can relatively easily transfer the bulk of the business there. The Brexit risk is that the inevitable recession will reduce demand, but that will affect the whole industry.

EasyJet will remain better placed to survive than many airlines, but the whole industry is suffering hugely.

 

[daodao]

All airlines are at risk. easyJet have got out of that, as they now have a Austrian subsidiary called easyJet Europe.

EasyJet Europe accounts for less than half of the easyJet operation, with 126 (out of 320) aircraft and about 30% of its routes. EasyJet Switzerland has just 29 (out of 320) aircraft. It is likely that Brexit will have a greater impact on easyJet than on its rivals Ryanair and Wizz Air.

 

[Tetchytyke]

EasyJet Europe accounts for less than half of the easyJet operation, with 126 (out of 320) aircraft and about 30% of its routes. EasyJet Switzerland has just 29 (out of 320) aircraft.

You miss the point, if Brexit causes logistical problems it is extremely easy to transfer planes and staff to the EU-based operations.

I wouldn't actually expect Brexit to cause many logistical issues. If the EU play silly buggers with Openskies access agreements then the UK will respond in kind. Ryanair's largest base is in the UK.

Brexit is more likely to reduce demand, and that will affect all airlines that fly to and from the UK.

 

[daodao]

You miss the point, if Brexit causes logistical problems it is extremely easy to transfer planes and staff to the EU-based operations. I wouldn't actually expect Brexit to cause many logistical issues. If the EU play silly buggers with Openskies access agreements then the UK will respond in kind. Ryanair's largest base is in the UK. Brexit is more likely to reduce demand, and that will affect all airlines that fly to and from the UK.

I am not missing the point. EasyJet has a higher percentage of its traffic on UK-Europe routes than Ryanair or Wizz Air, so will be hit harder by Brexit despite now having Austrian and Swiss based subsidiaries.

 

[Speed43125]

You miss the point, if Brexit causes logistical problems it is extremely easy to transfer planes and staff to the EU-based operations.

I wouldn't actually expect Brexit to cause many logistical issues. If the EU play silly buggers with Openskies access agreements then the UK will respond in kind. Ryanair's largest base is in the UK.

Brexit is more likely to reduce demand, and that will affect all airlines that fly to and from the UK.

They obviously already HAVE transferred all European bases to the Austrian Subsidiary, everything Intra Europe is either EJU or Topswiss already. The risk is obviously that the UK economy could suffer disproportionately due Brexit, and that affects their UK centred (generally speaking) operation more than comparable LCCs and ULCCs (are those a concept used for European airlines?).

I am not missing the point. EasyJet has a higher percentage of its traffic on UK-Europe routes than Ryanair or Wizz Air, so will be hit harder by Brexit despite now having Austrian and Swiss based subsidiaries.

You both make good points.

On the one hand they have bitten the bullet and accepted the one time cost of transferring assets and ops away from UK registered companies, on the other hand that alone may not be enough to avoid Brexit inflicted harm, especially compared to their EU registered competitors.

What I think is a more interesting issue is; will any of this matter given the state of world aviation and Covid's resurgence in Europe, pushing back any return to normality further?

 

[Tetchytyke]

I am not missing the point. EasyJet has a higher percentage of its traffic on UK-Europe routes than Ryanair or Wizz Air, so will be hit harder by Brexit despite now having Austrian and Swiss based subsidiaries.

Ah right, I thought you were just referring to the location of the airline not the routes they fly.

Certainly compared to WizzAir they do, with WizzAir having an Eastern Europe focus. Ryanair not so much, Rysnair's biggest bases are still in the UK, but Ryanair is bigger in every way.

It'll be interesting to see what the Brexit recession on top of the Covid recession does.

 

[Bald Rick]

How much of Wizz Air’s business is U.K. dependent? I should think that post Brexit the Eastern Europe routes will suffer more than Western Europe, and Wizz do much more business U.K. to the east than EZY or FR.

 

[Chester1]

Ah right, I thought you were just referring to the location of the airline not the routes they fly.

Certainly compared to WizzAir they do, with WizzAir having an Eastern Europe focus. Ryanair not so much, Rysnair's biggest bases are still in the UK, but Ryanair is bigger in every way.

It'll be interesting to see what the Brexit recession on top of the Covid recession does.

Assuming there is a brexit recession. My money is on a repeat of last year when the Tories agreed to a deal that was mostly on the EUs terms (but pushed to their absolute limit). If there is a free trade deal then any economic a damage from leaving the customs union and single market could easily be masked by an economic boost if the pandemic eases next year. A FTA would almost certainly include some stuff on aviation and the new passport requirements will be no more than a minor inconvenience. If there was major disruption during a no trade deal departure then Easyjet could pivot slightly away from the EU - UK market. This could mean more inter EU flights but also services from UK and EU to non European destinations. Easyjet already fly to Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel and Jordan.

 

[CC 72100]

EasyJet is reported to be "hanging by a thread", according to the BBC - see article at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54303379


Will Sleazyjet suffer the same fate as Flymaybe? As a UK-based airline, IMO it is at much greater risk than its rivals Ryanair and Wizz Air, because of Brexit.

I think one also has to consider the source this has come from - a union official. There is a natural conflict of interest there already.

One other thing is that with the base closures, the union may indeed may coming under pressure from its members for having not got them a 'better deal'. Painting an image of the company in an extremely fragile state could be a political move between the union and its members as a way of justifying what some members may have perceived as a bad deal.

 

[telstarbox]

An interesting article on the poor outlook for the aviation industry:

Inside the airline industry's meltdown

The long read: Coronavirus has hit few sectors harder than air travel, wiping out tens of thousands of jobs and uncountable billions in revenue. While most fleets were grounded, the industry was forced to reimagine its future

www.theguardian.com

Coronavirus has hit few sectors harder than air travel, wiping out tens of thousands of jobs and uncountable billions in revenue. While most fleets were grounded, the industry was forced to reimagine its future

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Definitely depressing to me as a frequent flyer who travels back to the UK regularly

 

[Tetchytyke]

It'll be interesting to see where airlines go from here.

I hope we move away from the low-cost race to the bottom as fewer people travel but are prepared to pay a bit more, and we go back to sensible seat widths and seat pitches in economy. But I suspect that airlines will just double down on things like 10-abreast seating in a 777.

 

[Meerkat]

It'll be interesting to see where airlines go from here.

I hope we move away from the low-cost race to the bottom as fewer people travel but are prepared to pay a bit more, and we go back to sensible seat widths and seat pitches in economy. But I suspect that airlines will just double down on things like 10-abreast seating in a 777.

Why do you think they will be prepared to pay more? The rise of low cost seems to show that price is almost everything - Ryanair deliberately spread negative stuff about the lack of frills to emphasise that it’s all about the cost!!

 

[Tetchytyke]

Why do you think they will be prepared to pay more?

I think the people who will be able to afford to fly, especially long haul, will be people prepared to pay a little bit more for a little bit of comfort. I think we're seeing that already with Covid seeing off the likes of Norwegian.

I could well be very very wrong.

As for short haul, Covid has shown the benefit of package holidays for bucket-and-spade stuff that was Ryanair's bread and butter. It'll be interesting how that pans out.

 

[cactustwirly]

I think the people who will be able to afford to fly, especially long haul, will be people prepared to pay a little bit more for a little bit of comfort. I think we're seeing that already with Covid seeing off the likes of Norwegian.

I could well be very very wrong.

As for short haul, Covid has shown the benefit of package holidays for bucket-and-spade stuff that was Ryanair's bread and butter. It'll be interesting how that pans out.

Norwegian were in big trouble way before Corona virus.

 

[scotrail158713]

Norwegian were in big trouble way before Corona virus.

With Covid ultimately being the straw that broke the camel’s back

 

[Butts]

Well I've been taking full advantage of BA's Sale which ends today.

Great news is that I am (FCO allowing) going to go from BA Blue straight through Bronze and onto Silver by the end of my points year in early November.

BA have reduced the qualification from 600 to 450 tier points.

Amazing how you can whack up 160 points on a lot of Mini Holidays from Edinburgh to Italy , Poland and Germany via LHR.

Once I hopefully get Silver I will revert to economy as it's Lounge and Free Seat Selection are the real benefits I seek.

If I can get fed and watered for free prior to departure, sit in an exit seat free of charge (better than most CE Seats) and traverse the world I will be as happy as a pig in sh*t !!

 

[Tetchytyke]

Norwegian were in big trouble way before Corona virus.

Oh definitely, the high debt/low margin model was fragile, but Covid finished the job.

I'm not convinced that long-haul cattle trucks will tempt people back to flying.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm not convinced that long-haul cattle trucks will tempt people back to flying.

My guess, and it is a guess, is that as and when the crisis is declared over* and foreign travel restrictions are all removed, there will be an almighty clamour to get abroad to see friends / relatives / take long planned holidays. Much of this will be long haul. I think the airlines are going to have a job on their hands to predict this, and get their fleets recommissioned quickly enough to accommodate it. I suspect they will be cautious, and fares will go through the roof initially, before coming back down as capacity come back on line, and the initial demand surge falls back.


* through a suitable proportion of the population being immune through a vaccine or having caught the virus.

 

[nlogax]

My guess, and it is a guess, is that as and when the crisis is declared over* and foreign travel restrictions are all removed, there will be an almighty clamour to get abroad to see friends / relatives / take long planned holidays. Much of this will be long haul.

Couldn't agree more. The pent-up demand for travel is going to stretch what's left of airlines once this sorry mess is resolved. If folks are in any doubt about this then google for 'revenge tourism'. China is already seeing it happen.

 

[BayPaul]

Oh definitely, the high debt/low margin model was fragile, but Covid finished the job.

I'm not convinced that long-haul cattle trucks will tempt people back to flying.

Is there that much difference between a long-haul low cost carrier and a long-haul legacy carrier? I don't see any kind of return to a golden age of flying, where people happily pay high premiums for a little more service. Low cost has proved its worth, and people are happy to get an acceptable product that they wouldn't otherwise be able to afford. If anything, I can see low-cost bouncing back quicker, as they will be a lot more flexible in getting capacity back where it is needed fast, if they can survive to the end that is.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Is there that much difference between a long-haul low cost carrier and a long-haul legacy carrier? I don't see any kind of return to a golden age of flying

I don't either. I more think that people are more mindful of personal space and the more egregious changes in recent years may well reverse. Maybe it's just a wishful hope that 9-abreast 787s disappear!

But yes, there's a difference between the Norwegian model and most legacy carriers. The difference does, in fairness, depend on the legacy carrier.

I think there will be a clamour to travel when people can. We even see it here, flights to Guernsey sell out in minutes because that's the only place we can go to without 14 days quarantine. I certainly will want to travel when I can.

 

[gsnedders]

Is there that much difference between a long-haul low cost carrier and a long-haul legacy carrier? I don't see any kind of return to a golden age of flying, where people happily pay high premiums for a little more service. Low cost has proved its worth, and people are happy to get an acceptable product that they wouldn't otherwise be able to afford. If anything, I can see low-cost bouncing back quicker, as they will be a lot more flexible in getting capacity back where it is needed fast, if they can survive to the end that is.

Many low-cost long-haul carriers include no food and no checked luggage with their fares. A few legacy carriers offer hand luggage only fares, but they're still pretty rare long-haul. That said, I wouldn't rule out legacy carriers: they have large existing freight networks which will help the viability of many routes.

As far as I'm aware, those looking for "a little more service" of decades past should be looking at premium economy on most airlines: it's comparable to early jet-age long-haul seat pitch/width, with better service, and priced much below (inflation adjusted) prices of economy travel back then. Airlines do still offer people the choice, but few people choose to take it: many more people choose to take the lower fare.

I don't expect we'll see any real increases in space in economy (potentially we could see marginal ones when seating is replaced with thinner-backed ones), but it doesn't seem implausible there might be some competition for quality of service, though it will inevitably all be weighted up against cost to the airline much more heavily in more premium classes.

 

[eoff]

Well I've been taking full advantage of BA's Sale which ends today.

Great news is that I am (FCO allowing) going to go from BA Blue straight through Bronze and onto Silver by the end of my points year in early November.

BA have reduced the qualification from 600 to 450 tier points.

Amazing how you can whack up 160 points on a lot of Mini Holidays from Edinburgh to Italy , Poland and Germany via LHR.

I thought you had to go quite far to get 160 points on a trip, Edinburgh to Helsinki for example.

 

[Bald Rick]

I thought you had to go quite far to get 160 points on a trip, Edinburgh to Helsinki for example.

Edinburgh to Rome is further than Edinburgh to Helsinki!

 

[nlogax]

Possible good news.

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/...-could-start-within-weeks-says-heathrow-chief

Covid testing for passengers arriving in the UK could begin within weeks, according to Heathrow chief executive John Holland-Kaye. The airport has been told by Boris Johnson that the government is aiming to begin trials by mid-October, with the potential for a New York-London route opening by the end of November.

The model is expected to use the two-test approach for those arriving from high-risk countries. In a system that would effectively cut the current 14-day quarantine at least in half, passengers will take one test before departure, and another five or seven days after arrival.

If it happens I'm planning to get myself back to NYC as soon as. Cannot wait.

 

[gsnedders]

I thought you had to go quite far to get 160 points on a trip, Edinburgh to Helsinki for example.

In Club Europe, each leg is 40 tier points, so EDI - LHR is 40, LHR to Rome is another 40, then double that for the return, and bingo you're at 160.

 

[eoff]

I forgot that you can now get a business fare on the domestic bit.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Help for the airline industry is being discussed in The House right now. Not got passed the senate yes or POTUS.

 

[fowler9]

Fortunately my sister is still working and flying with Easyjet as cabin crew. Unfortunately my flight to Porto was cancelled by Ryanair and my brother just found out he will have to quarantine for 14 days when he gets back from Poland.