Avanti's serial cancellations of last trains

[mmh]

One does have to ask, however, if having a 3tph EUS-MAN service, that can't be maintained with services being cancelled at random, is better or worse than a 2tph service that is mostly reliable.

And we should be asking what the point of super-fast, limited stop services between different parts of the country is.

 

[A0]

I always find this as a dangerous spiral. At the moment the rail service is unreliable so we drive (as the government prefer). Rail services are cut. More drive and so on. Congestion gets worse as those that never use the train have there road space taken up by those that used to. surely the government should be taking action to maximise their investment in rail? If I start driving then that does impacts someone that never uses the train.

100 people driving late at night makes pretty much no difference - the main roads and motorways are generally quiet after 7pm and very quiet after 10pm, so congestion really isn't an issue.

Rail is best as bulk transportation, so large flows ideally with trains at 80%+ capacity. Anything less is actually wasteful.

 

[Agent_Squash]

100 people driving late at night makes pretty much no difference - the main roads and motorways are generally quiet after 7pm and very quiet after 10pm, so congestion really isn't an issue.

Rail is best as bulk transportation, so large flows ideally with trains at 80%+ capacity. Anything less is actually wasteful.

Shouldn’t we be encouraging more people to use the railways so we can reach 80%+ capacity, rather than discouraging as Avanti do?

 

[A0]

Shouldn’t we be encouraging more people to use the railways so we can reach 80%+ capacity, rather than discouraging as Avanti do?

Not if that's being done by "giveaway" fares which don't cover the costs - it would be better to run fewer trains and increase their utilisation.

 

[Agent_Squash]

Not if that's being done by "giveaway" fares which don't cover the costs - it would be better to run fewer trains and increase their utilisation.

I’d rather subsidise give away fares to encourage increased rail travel - a loss leader if you will. Run the trains and people will come - look at the massively increased passenger numbers on Northern as services have become regular, and previously on Virgin when VHF was introduced.

 

[Failed Unit]

100 people driving late at night makes pretty much no difference - the main roads and motorways are generally quiet after 7pm and very quiet after 10pm, so congestion really isn't an issue.

Rail is best as bulk transportation, so large flows ideally with trains at 80%+ capacity. Anything less is actually wasteful.

But maybe someone travelling in the evening in one direction was in at busy period in the other.

i often choose to drive because I can’t find / rely on the train to get me home in the evening / weekend.

so if they are frequently cancelling the last train that could be passengers lost say at 1000 adding to the motorway congestion. If trains should be 80% full we might as well close the network down now. Every morning at WGC at about 0800 I see lots of trains heading south around 100% full but one’s going north at 5% full. Average out the loadings we should close the line.

 

[A0]

I’d rather subsidise give away fares to encourage increased rail travel - a loss leader if you will. Run the trains and people will come - look at the massively increased passenger numbers on Northern as services have become regular, and previously on Virgin when VHF was introduced.

Feel free to pay more tax - that's your right, just don't count me in on paying more tax so others can gallivant around the country at my expense.

 

[Class 170101]

But the taxpayer shouldn't be faced with the seemingly ever escalating of running a rail network.

And paying overtime to cover things is one such example. Perhaps allowing TOCs an easier route to reducing the timetable would be a sensible way forward.

But is overtime cheaper with its inherent risk of non availability or employing new staff, though these days the staff might also be difficult to find as well.

 

[Agent_Squash]

Feel free to pay more tax - that's your right, just don't count me in on paying more tax so others can gallivant around the country at my expense.

But don’t we equally have social obligations to support mobility? If we cut back services in the way you’re suggesting, all we’d do is reduce social mobility, reduce economic growth and prevent the modal shift to public transport that we need.

Rail has been proven to be a catalyst for social mobility and economic growth. Good public transport is part of a strong society and economy.

I’d rather introduce tolling on the roads to support modal shift - we need to actively be discouraging road transport and push for rail.

But this is going off topic now. The fact is Avanti is failing to operate the timetable that has driven growth on the WCML for many years - absolutely ridiculous.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Feel free to pay more tax - that's your right, just don't count me in on paying more tax so others can gallivant around the country at my expense.

But if the majority would be happy to pay more tax for better public transport, your point is moot and youd just have to deal with it.

 

[317 forever]

What happens when everyone available to work is already on, people in spare are allocated work within their hours and those wanting rest day working are in. What happens if that isn't sufficient?

Question for staff on here. When was the last time you were offered overtime or rest day working to sit spare so there was always additional cover available to cover for on the day sickness and disruption.

Quite apart from whether Avanti would pay staff to sit at the depot in case they are needed, there are people - potentially including some of us on this forum - who find sitting around doing nothing so futile that they prefer not to and are even willing to miss out on the pay as a result.

 

[the sniper]

100 people driving late at night makes pretty much no difference - the main roads and motorways are generally quiet after 7pm and very quiet after 10pm, so congestion really isn't an issue.

Rail is best as bulk transportation, so large flows ideally with trains at 80%+ capacity. Anything less is actually wasteful.

Shouldn’t we be encouraging more people to use the railways so we can reach 80%+ capacity, rather than discouraging as Avanti do?

Why are we talking as if some of these trains being cancelled aren't at 80% capacity? Some of them would be full and standing. My 100 people example, which I thought had been largely ignored, was an extreme example.

Feel free to pay more tax - that's your right, just don't count me in on paying more tax so others can gallivant around the country at my expense.

Problem is, you've come across a bit desperate in your argument with very little substance. You're just huffing and puffing.

 

[A0]

But don’t we equally have social obligations to support mobility? If we cut back services in the way you’re suggesting, all we’d do is reduce social mobility, reduce economic growth and prevent the modal shift to public transport that we need.

Yes, because "social mobility" relies on late at night trains which run half full.....

Better to run fewer trains at higher utilisation.

And *you* might want a modal shift to public transport - you can count me out on that aspiration as well.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jun 2022 ==

But if the majority would be happy to pay more tax for better public transport, your point is moot and youd just have to deal with it.

The "majority" will always say there should be more tax to pay for things - the reality is they usually expect that bill to be paid by somebody else. When asked to vote on tax rises which affect them, they tend to be much less enthusiastic.

 

[Agent_Squash]

And *you* might want a modal shift to public transport - you can count me out on that aspiration as well.

It’s a stated goal of this government to encourage modal shift. And honestly, it’s quite surprising that as member of a rail forum you don’t want to see improved rail services and modal shift as a result.

The governments last attitudes towards train services (2018) shows that 64% of the population travel by rail at least once a year: https://assets.publishing.service.g...s-towards-train-services-feb-2018-summary.pdf - while COVID may have changed commuting, leisure is still a very viable market which the railway should aim for.

The government has clearly stated its ‘ambition’ to increase usage of public transport. Cancelling late night services (which allow people to stay out later, and therefore spend more!) will have a negative social as well as economic impact. As evidenced previously in this thread, these last trains aren’t empty. It costs the tax payer more in delay repay and the money merry-go-round than it would do to pay overtime.

Europe’s rail system isn’t perfect - but I went from Pisa to Florence for 8.80EUR today, purchased at the station. The train was packed. Low fares drive up usage, meaning that the railway becomes less of a basket case.

I’m genuinely struggling to see your argument as you’re basically arguing for a managed decline.

 

[judethegreat]

The "majority" will always say there should be more tax to pay for things - the reality is they usually expect that bill to be paid by somebody else. When asked to vote on tax rises which affect them, they tend to be much less enthusiastic.

I don't think 'ordinary' people need to pay more tax. Just claw it from the rich and the corporations who avoid/evade, and cease and reverse this government's general looting of public assets and finances. There is plenty of money to go around.

 

[Watershed]

I’m genuinely struggling to see your argument as you’re basically arguing for a managed decline.

@A0wen seems to be advocating for the Serpell report to be enacted. Anything that doesn't meet those stringent criteria apparently warrants closure!

 

[ComUtoR]

I don't think 'ordinary' people need to pay more tax. Just claw it from the rich and the corporations who avoid/evade, and cease and reverse this government's general looting of public assets and finances. There is plenty of money to go around.

How much tax has been lost from the TOCs that are now under Government control ?

All that Corporation tax going to waste

 

[43066]

@A0wen seems to be advocating for the Serpell report to be enacted. Anything that doesn't meet those stringent criteria apparently warrants closure!

Indeed. An odd view for a railway enthusiast, you’d have thought.

 

[the sniper]

Does SABRE have such a dedicated anti-road contingent...?

 

[gazzaa2]

Chaos at Euston tonight. They shut the gates due to overcrowding. Avanti services have been rammed all day before this evening's disruption after a lot of earlier cancellations. Hopefully everyone can get home okay.

 

[A0]

@A0wen seems to be advocating for the Serpell report to be enacted. Anything that doesn't meet those stringent criteria apparently warrants closure!

No - where have I advocated route closures?

That's a typically lazy slur.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jun 2022 ==

Indeed. An odd view for a railway enthusiast, you’d have thought.

Enthusiast does not equal unquestioning support.

And saying that the rail network should not expect the taxpayer to simply keep opening the wallet is not unreasonable. Freight by contrast more than pays its way - fewer unremunative passenger services could enable more profitabl freight for example.

 

[Watershed]

No - where have I advocated route closures?

That's a typically lazy slur.

It's hardly a slur - what other conclusion do you expect people to draw from such comments as shown below?!

rail is best as bulk transportation, so large flows ideally with trains at 80%+ capacity. Anything less is actually wasteful.

it would be better to run fewer trains

I would imagine there is barely a single line or TOC in the entire country that averages 80% utilisation of seats. So if you are serious about that suggestion of running fewer trains because they're not all 80% full... we would need to shut most of the network down.

Have you tried being a bit less of a devil's advocate?

 

[A0]

I don't think 'ordinary' people need to pay more tax. Just claw it from the rich and the corporations who avoid/evade, and cease and reverse this government's general looting of public assets and finances. There is plenty of money to go around.

Thank you for proving my point - you want more tax to be spent, but you want sonebody else to pay.

Try offering to increase your tax bill by 10 or 20% before advocating that sonebody else's tax bill should go up first.

 

[142blue]

Quite apart from whether Avanti would pay staff to sit at the depot in case they are needed, there are people - potentially including some of us on this forum - who find sitting around doing nothing so futile that they prefer not to and are even willing to miss out on the pay as a result.

Very fair point but spare turns should still be available for these instances. If you've used the back up people and the job goes belly up then who have you got to help keep a service running.

I think the current unhappiness in the industry also doesn't motivate people. I've been at home today watching the railway fall down and thinking I'm glad I'm off

 

[A0]

I would imagine there is barely a single line or TOC in the entire country that averages 80% utilisation of seats. So if you are serious about that suggestion of running fewer trains because they're not all 80% full... we would need to shut most of the network down.

Have you tried being a bit less of a devil's advocate?

It's fairly simple - if you're running 3 tph at an average of 50% capacity, run 2 tph and you'll get over 80% capacity.

If you're running a half hourly service late at night which is half full, run an hourly service.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jun 2022 ==

Does SABRE have such a dedicated anti-road contingent...?

Even anti motorists aren't anti roads because they need something to cycle on or their bus to use. That's before they realise their local Co op needs roads so it can receive fresh supplies of organic produce and that day's Guardian.

 

[judethegreat]

Thank you for proving my point - you want more tax to be spent, but you want sonebody else to pay.

Try offering to increase your tax bill by 10 or 20% before advocating that sonebody else's tax bill should go up first.

Yes. But i have very little money. The rest of my comment?

 

[Horizon22]

Yes, because "social mobility" relies on late at night trains which run half full.....

Better to run fewer trains at higher utilisation.

And *you* might want a modal shift to public transport - you can count me out on that aspiration as well.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jun 2022 ==



The "majority" will always say there should be more tax to pay for things - the reality is they usually expect that bill to be paid by somebody else. When asked to vote on tax rises which affect them, they tend to be much less enthusiastic.

Not sure what "late at night trains" you've been on, but they are often very full, especially on a weekend. It's often the last passenger service before it goes to the depot, so tends to be a suitable destination so the train doesn't have to travel miles to get back (and considers the location of crew depots for the last job). The last train will always be busy simply because its the "last train" - you see this effect to a slightly lesser degree for the first train as well. There's alaways a section of people that want to be somewhere earlier / later can't and are artifically forced onto the first/last service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's fairly simple - if you're running 3 tph at an average of 50% capacity, run 2 tph and you'll get over 80% capacity.

Not if the reduction puts people off.

 

[Agent_Squash]

It's fairly simple - if you're running 3 tph at an average of 50% capacity, run 2 tph and you'll get over 80% capacity.

If you're running a half hourly service late at night which is half full, run an hourly service.

No you wouldn’t - you’d get 75%…

Your master plan also makes one big assumption - that everyone who would’ve travelled still would choose to go via rail. Frequency drives demand - so a reduction in frequency would likely surpress demand and make those who would’ve used a train take their car instead.

Of course we could run late night services with 153s - we’d be making full utilisation of the rolling stock then!

 

[DelayRepay]

Chaos at Euston tonight. They shut the gates due to overcrowding. Avanti services have been rammed all day before this evening's disruption after a lot of earlier cancellations. Hopefully everyone can get home okay.

There was some kind of incident between Watford and Milton Keynes leading to a line closure earlier this evening.