Avanti Crisis: Would Virgin have fared better?

[Sorcerer]

So most of you probably don't need me to explain the current situation with Avanti West Coast involving the reduced timetable caused by staff shortages, but there's also been mention of poorer staff morale and worse industrial relations, especially between frontline staff and management. This has lead to many calling for Avanti to be stripped of the contract. But the speculative question I would like to ask here is whether or not Virgin would've fared any better. Let's assume that whether it be through winning the initial bid that later got disqualified or by retaining the franchise long enough to make it through to today, would Virgin Trains have honestly fared any better in the current situation?

What we need to remember is that Phil Whittingham who left over the issues currently plaguing the operator was also the managing director for Virgin Trains from 2015, so the management staff aren't much different, and combined with other issues such as the cost of living crisis, rail strikes, and major economic turmoil that has effect the railways amongst other things, the two questions I have here are whether or not Virgin would've been able to do any better (and if so how they would've done so) and whether or not they too would be facing calls to lose their contract for the West Coast Partnership? I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the matter.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

So most of you probably don't need me to explain the current situation with Avanti West Coast involving the reduced timetable caused by staff shortages, but there's also been mention of poorer staff morale and worse industrial relations, especially between frontline staff and management. This has lead to many calling for Avanti to be stripped of the contract. But the speculative question I would like to ask here is whether or not Virgin would've fared any better. Let's assume that whether it be through winning the initial bid that later got disqualified or by retaining the franchise long enough to make it through to today, would Virgin Trains have honestly fared any better in the current situation?

What we need to remember is that Phil Whittingham who left over the issues currently plaguing the operator was also the managing director for Virgin Trains from 2015, so the management staff aren't much different, and combined with other issues such as the cost of living crisis, rail strikes, and major economic turmoil that has effect the railways amongst other things, the two questions I have here are whether or not Virgin would've been able to do any better (and if so how they would've done so) and whether or not they too would be facing calls to lose their contract for the West Coast Partnership? I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the matter.

There was an interesting session at Transport Select Committee recently at which it was highlighted how much Virgin West Coast relied on West Day Working throughout their time and it was shocking how much they did.

Add in Covid, which would have affected any owning company bringing in a steady flow of retirements and little new crew passing out and then throw in a DfT led Cost Embargo meaning no pay offers and you have the current toxic mix. None of this would have been any different regardless of owning group.

Some of the ‘fluffy stuff’ around the edges might have been handled differently by a different management team but the core issues would have still been there.

 

[skyhigh]

But the speculative question I would like to ask here is whether or not Virgin would've fared any better.

I doubt it. There would still have been the training challenges that Covid caused, DfT would still be meddling in agreements and as you say similar managing staff. There may have been slightly better employee relations, but I can't see things would have been massively different.

Don't forget that even if the 'Virgin' name had carried on it wouldn't have still been the same Virgin. It would have been Stagecoach with a bit of Virgin branding. That didn't work out so well on the ECML (though the circumstances were different).

 

[RobShipway]

There was an interesting session at Transport Select Committee recently at which it was highlighted how much Virgin West Coast relied on West Day Working throughout their time and it was shocking how much they did.

Add in Covid, which would have affected any owning company bringing in a steady flow of retirements and little new crew passing out and then throw in a DfT led Cost Embargo meaning no pay offers and you have the current toxic mix. None of this would have been any different regardless of owning group.

Some of the ‘fluffy stuff’ around the edges might have been handled differently by a different management team but the core issues would have still been there.

I presume you mean rest day working rather than west day working! But people within the rail industry I have spoken to over many years, seem to suggest to me that many TOC's rely on people working on their rest days. Given costs for food and fuel going up I would not be surprised if it is natural for rail staff to be working on their rest days. It certainly happens within the NHS in which I work and without it many patients would not receive treatment for several days. So I suspect, that many passengers would not be able to travel without those rail staff working their rest days.

 

[TheBigD]

I suspect that the comms would have been a whole lot better.
Whilst I'm no fan of the virgin brand, they do PR pretty dam well (even if i personally find it cringy).

 

[Bald Rick]

It’s a good question.

My view is that it would still have happened, as the underling structural issues about Rest Day Working and the terms and conditions would be the same, as would be Government‘s determination to do something about them.

The interesting thing for me is what would Virgin have done. They were of course a partner with Stagecoach in the West Coast franchise, but the current issues would be very, very difficult for the brand. I suspect they would have sold up, or gone very public on what was happening.