Autumn 2022 Covid wave peaked earlier than predicted

[yorkie]

I see the latest Zoe data shows a significant reduction in estimated symptomatic cases:

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184,618
New symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on Oct 22, 2022

On the 14th October (using data from 12 October) the daily figure was 236,398 (source)

BBC are not reporting on this yet; they will probably wait until the reduction in cases eventually filters through to the ONS data.

The Government data showing cases in England does show a reduction, though so few people get tested these days, recent waves have barely registered. It's perhaps easier to see in the graph titled Percentage change in 7 day case rates by specimen date, which has been in decline in the last few days for which data is available

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

John Campbell and Tim Spector discuss this in a recent video update:

3:25 luckily for the rare bit of good news at
3:29 a lower Peak than we were anticipating
3:31 than the significantly the forecasters
3:34 had suggested so yeah so we peaked at
3:37 about 230 000 cases and you know I think
3:41 the previous total was around 350 000.
3:43 and most the forecasts had saying it was
3:46 going to be the highest ever and I think
3:48 that's what I've I reported that wasn't
3:50 my forecast but people I trusted uh had
3:54 actually worked that out so it's gonna
3:57 be a lower Peak and
3:59 that's good news ...

I don't agree with Tim that the reason is reduced mixing in this wave; I think increasing levels of immunity is the more likely reason.

It is interesting that the forecasters got this wrong.

We will continue to have waves and peaks but the proportion of people who get ill with Covid will continue to reduce over time and so these waves are reducing in significance / importance.

It's now time we accepted that these waves are inevitable but also no longer of any real significance; it is now time to treat Covid in a similar way that we treat influenza.

 

[duncanp]

The things that strikes me about that graph is that the peak of the latest wave, at about 60%, is lower than the three previous waves.

I would expect this to happen as COVID becomes more endemic, and the level of natural and vaccine acquired immunity in the general population increases.

Each future wave is likely to have a lower peak and higher trough, until eventually an equilibrium is reached, where it fluctuates within a relatively small range.

 

[BJames]

@yorkie I haven't watched the video but based on your comments if he has said it's reduced mixing, I definitely don't agree with that - just for a moment taking the subsection of the population that I know best (uni students), you've got hundreds of thousands of people travelling across the country to start terms at universities in cities all across the country with students from all other parts of the country, going out to bars and clubs regularly - and that's just one section. Shopping centres are busy, as are restaurants, gigs etc.

I wonder whether the BBC will indeed duly report it once it filters through ONS figures, and if so whether it gains front-page style headers or merely a mention in a lower ranked article.

I also note that the way ONS surveys are done has changed (again) and I have bowed out this time. When we moved properties I was the only student staying on, everyone else was going back to family homes or London so it made sense for me to close our participation, but they have scaled back participant numbers and no longer send study workers to homes to survey - everything is done online and test kits are posted out to people to be posted back within 14 days.

 

[PeterC]

I haven't watched the video but with regard to mixing I know that events that attract an older demographic are still running with much lower attendance levels.

 

[Sm5]

Theres always the possibility of remergence of a harder strain, or fading immunity.

Huge numbers of people are vaccinated, and since been exposed which jumps their immunity and results with smaller reactions.

However kids will grow older, under 12’s werent really vaccinated, so the gene pool of unvax will grow each year as covid presence falls, leading to a point where a jump in strain coupled with a drop in immunity could trigger another hard round, though I would suspect it wont be like its introduction.

 

[yorkie]

The things that strikes me about that graph is that the peak of the latest wave, at about 60%, is lower than the three previous waves.

I would expect this to happen as COVID becomes more endemic, and the level of natural and vaccine acquired immunity in the general population increases.

Each future wave is likely to have a lower peak and higher trough, until eventually an equilibrium is reached, where it fluctuates within a relatively small range.

I agree with this.

Theres always the possibility of remergence of a harder strain, or fading immunity.

There is only one strain of Sars-CoV-2 and no evidence that any other strain is likely to develop.

Immunity from infection is short lived, but immunity against severe outcomes seems strong; this is consistent with other Coronaviruses which have become endemic in human populations (such as OC43).

Huge numbers of people are vaccinated, and since been exposed which jumps their immunity and results with smaller reactions.

Agreed, plus natural infections too.

However kids will grow older, under 12’s werent really vaccinated, so the gene pool of unvax will grow each year as covid presence falls, leading to a point where a jump in strain coupled with a drop in immunity could trigger another hard round, though I would suspect it wont be like its introduction.

Kids are exposed to Coronaviruses at a young age, and are then re-exposed on a regular basis. It seems likely that Sars-CoV-2 will go the same way as other Coronaviruses which jumped to humans, and continually cause waves which result in milder infections over time.

 

[yorksrob]

Whatever the drop is, it's not due to lack of people mixing. Leeds seems as crowded as before the pandemic, much to my general irritation.

 

[greyman42]

I haven't watched the video but with regard to mixing I know that events that attract an older demographic are still running with much lower attendance levels.

Such as?

 

[Class 33]

This is what The i newspaper published online back on 21st September. I can't post the full article as it's behind a paywall. But the headline and the sub heading is enough to get the jist of what the article babbles on about.

UK Covid cases shoot up in matter of days with new record expected this Autumn

Experts predict Covid could reach levels far higher than anything we have seen before in the UK within a few weeks

inews.co.uk

UK Covid cases shoot up in matter of days with new record expected this Autumn​

EXCLUSIVE

Experts predict Covid could reach levels far higher than anything we have seen before in the UK within a few weeks​

These so called "experts" are absolutely pathetic! They said Covid levels could reach "far higher than anything we have seen before" by mid October! How wrong they were! Or are they just making this nonsense up to TRY and scare us all?

I'm certainly no expert on Covid. But I predicted(and posted so on the now very small Covid Support Discussion) at the start of the rise in cases last month, that the rise in cases would last barely only 3 to 4 weeks before falling again. And I was right!

There'll probably be another rise in cases again in a month or so, which will be nothing to worry about again. But I bet the online media will be up to their old scare mongering tactics yet again!

 

[The exile]

This is what The i newspaper published online back on 21st September. I can't post the full article as it's behind a paywall. But the headline and the sub heading is enough to get the jist of what the article babbles on about.

UK Covid cases shoot up in matter of days with new record expected this Autumn

Experts predict Covid could reach levels far higher than anything we have seen before in the UK within a few weeks

inews.co.uk

These so called "experts" are absolutely pathetic! They said Covid levels could reach "far higher than anything we have seen before" by mid October! How wrong they were! Or are they just making this nonsense up to TRY and scare us all?

I'm certainly no expert on Covid. But I predicted(and posted so on the now very small Covid Support Discussion) at the start of the rise in cases last month, that the rise in cases would last barely only 3 to 4 weeks before falling again. And I was right!

There'll probably be another rise in cases again in a month or so, which will be nothing to worry about again. But I bet the online media will be up to their old scare mongering tactics yet again!

The operative word is “could” -of course they “could” in the same way as I “could” win the lottery every Saturday till the end of the year. Suspect the issue lies more with the “click bait mongers” than anyone else.

 

[Dent]

The operative word is “could” -of course they “could” in the same way as I “could” win the lottery every Saturday till the end of the year. Suspect the issue lies more with the “click bait mongers” than anyone else.

If the "experts" didn't make these pronouncements which are actually meaningless but open to being used as scaremongering headlines then the "click bait mongers" wouldn't have anything use in their scary headlines. The issue is actually a combination of sensationalist journalism and "experts" making pronouncements for no good reason which give sensationalist journalists their material.

 

[nw1]

Whatever the drop is, it's not due to lack of people mixing. Leeds seems as crowded as before the pandemic, much to my general irritation.

Buses, for example, are certainly very crowded indeed (not helped by the current severe unreliability of course). Standing-room only on a double-decker on multiple occasions this month, which is not something I can recall in the past happening very often at all.

Shopping centres, pubs, bars and the like too. If there's no mixing going on it's news to me.

(Of course my first point about buses suggests we really need to wind the clock back to before 2020 when it comes to bus timetables, and run the full service again. And not try to deny that people commute in to work by bus, because they blatantly do. Not a Covid comment but a more general one...)

 

[yorksrob]

Buses, for example, are certainly very crowded indeed (not helped by the current severe unreliability of course). Standing-room only on a double-decker on multiple occasions this month, which is not something I can recall in the past happening very often at all.

Shopping centres, pubs, bars and the like too. If there's no mixing going on it's news to me.

(Of course my first point about buses suggests we really need to wind the clock back to before 2020 when it comes to bus timetables, and run the full service again. And not try to deny that people commute in to work by bus, because they blatantly do. Not a Covid comment but a more general one...)

Same with trains really, but that's probably been covered elsewhere on this forum !

 

[ashkeba]

The operative word is “could” -of course they “could” in the same way as I “could” win the lottery every Saturday till the end of the year. Suspect the issue lies more with the “click bait mongers” than anyone else.

Yes. None of the experts quoted in the report use "could", only the second headline. But it worked because it got linked and I clicked. But I am less likely to clink their links in future.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Oct 2022 ==

Buses, for example, are certainly very crowded indeed (not helped by the current severe unreliability of course). Standing-room only on a double-decker on multiple occasions this month, which is not something I can recall in the past happening very often at all.

Shopping centres, pubs, bars and the like too. If there's no mixing going on it's news to me.

(Of course my first point about buses suggests we really need to wind the clock back to before 2020 when it comes to bus timetables, and run the full service again. And not try to deny that people commute in to work by bus, because they blatantly do. Not a Covid comment but a more general one...)

Not no mixing, but less. Buses crowded are annoying and someone should tackle the driver shortage, but people are usually not on there long. Same in shop areas. It is the long indoor events which have reduced, from what I see. The weather is mild too and many cafes still have outdoor spaces, still fine in the daytimes when older more at risk people visit more, partly as buses stop even earlier now. It seems complicated and I think no one is studying it in near real time, but it seems unlikely the new government will change the approach anyway, withthe new Transport Minister an anti lockdown.

 

[30907]

Such as?

Churches, choirs, clubs and societies - volunteer-based organisations generally.

 

[greyman42]

Churches, choirs, clubs and societies - volunteer-based organisations generally.

That's all pretty vague. The people who went to these sort of events may be in the pub, judging by how busy they are.

 

[ChrisC]

Churches, choirs, clubs and societies - volunteer-based organisations generally.

I agree. So many of this type of organisation and groups are really struggling as many people have not returned to them. Following the lockdowns, because of the large numbers of elderly people attending, organisations like these were cautious and slow to return to normality. Lots of elderly people have lost the confidence to come out of their homes and mix with others. Many who had slight mobility issues now are even less mobile following months of inactivity. There are also those who were in the very early stages of conditions like dementia and the lockdowns resulted in a faster progression of these conditions. Some have lost the confidence to drive in the dark after a winter when everywhere was closed with no reason to drive in the evenings. Perhaps a somewhat obscure example to use but I know that in many areas bellringers are really struggling to get enough people together to ring at churches on any regular basis.
The consequences and affects of the lockdowns are quite long lasting in some organisations.

 

[Freightmaster]

I agree. So many of this type of organisation and groups are really struggling as many people have not returned to them. Following the lockdowns, because of the large numbers of elderly people attending, organisations like these were cautious and slow to return to normality. Lots of elderly people have lost the confidence to come out of their homes and mix with others..

Far too cautious/slow in many cases, so they only have themselves to blame if they are "really struggling" now??






MARK

 

[Horizon22]

I agree. So many of this type of organisation and groups are really struggling as many people have not returned to them. Following the lockdowns, because of the large numbers of elderly people attending, organisations like these were cautious and slow to return to normality. Lots of elderly people have lost the confidence to come out of their homes and mix with others. Many who had slight mobility issues now are even less mobile following months of inactivity. There are also those who were in the very early stages of conditions like dementia and the lockdowns resulted in a faster progression of these conditions. Some have lost the confidence to drive in the dark after a winter when everywhere was closed with no reason to drive in the evenings. Perhaps a somewhat obscure example to use but I know that in many areas bellringers are really struggling to get enough people together to ring at churches on any regular basis.
The consequences and affects of the lockdowns are quite long lasting in some organisations.

They may also be of poorer health generally as lower level concerns might not have been picked up over the past 2-3 years and have now become more severe.

 

[DustyBin]

Far too cautious/slow in many cases, so they only have themselves to blame if they are "really struggling" now??






MARK

I do a bit of (voluntary) work occasionally for a nearby museum as I have some specialist skills that are useful to them. Despite most of the volunteers being older (read elderly!) they returned to normal as soon as they were able to. I think it did them the world of good as quite a few told me that their wider social circles (outside of the museum) were very nervous and reluctant to do pretty much anything, whereas they quickly concluded life could and should go on.

I think it’s very sad that some peoples twilight years will be needlessly wasted as a result of project fear.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Churches, choirs, clubs and societies - volunteer-based organisations generally.

I wonder though some of it is people getting out of the habit of doing things rather than just being "scared" of Covid. Before Covid hit I would see a group of Ex University friends (all now in our 60s) about once a month or so. Although we still meet up it's usually once a quarter. No obvious reason.

 

[Pete_uk]

The radio club I run had a member with COVID a month ago. About six other members went down with it thereafter.

It's that time of year when people will meet indoors more so cases of everything will go up.

Just be sensible folks.

 

[yorkie]

The radio club I run had a member with COVID a month ago. About six other members went down with it thereafter.

It's that time of year when people will meet indoors more so cases of everything will go up.

Just be sensible folks.

SARS-CoV-2 infections are currently declining; being careful (whatever that entails?) isn't going to make any difference.

 

[davews]

In the past it would be just a common cold and we wouldn't all be testing willy nilly for the dreaded red line whether ill or not.

 

[nw1]

In the past it would be just a common cold and we wouldn't all be testing willy nilly for the dreaded red line whether ill or not.

Are many people testing now though? I suspect the fact that you have to pay would put people off. And even if it's negative, it might be flu, which you presumably don't want to spread if you can avoid it.

I'd have thought it would be better just to adopt the line of "if you have a fever, avoid going physically into work and avoid public transport". That would reduce the chance of spreading whatever it is, whether it be Sars-Cov-2, a bad cold or the flu.

 

[DustyBin]

Are many people testing now though? I suspect the fact that you have to pay would put people off. And even if it's negative, it might be flu, which you presumably don't want to spread if you can avoid it.

I'd have thought it would be better just to adopt the line of "if you have a fever, avoid going physically into work and avoid public transport". That would reduce the chance of spreading whatever it is, whether it be Sars-Cov-2, a bad cold or the flu.

You're not suggesting that people simply employ a bit of common sense are you?

 

[cuccir]

An obvious explanation for the earlier-than-expected decline is the booster campaign. I mean correlation is not causality, but it's a very plausible position to hold given that Covid started to drop 2-3 weeks after the Boosters were being rolled out. It would be hard to argue that it has had no impact, perhaps coinciding with a 'natural' downturn in numbers to increase the level of suppression.

Is there any talk of expanding the booster campaign? Long term the obvious future is as with flu - boosters for the vulnerable + others can buy them if they want - but as Covid "settles down" I'd have thought that another year or two of Boosters, particularly if they can target the newer variants, would have a positive impact? In past years the biggest peak has been Jan-Feb so a late November / early December extension of boosters would seem sensible.

 

[bramling]

In the past it would be just a common cold and we wouldn't all be testing willy nilly for the dreaded red line whether ill or not.

Exactly. For the past week or so I've had cold symptoms, which for a couple of days were pretty invasive. All I've kept hearing is "you want to get yourself a Covid test". Why would I need to?

 

[Pete_uk]

You're not suggesting that people simply employ a bit of common sense are you?

Ridiculous.

 

[Class 33]

This weeks Covid stats dashboard published today. Cases down 32%, deaths down 24%, and hospital admissions downs 26%! That "wave" which peaked a couple of weeks back was nothing! The next wave in maybe about a month or so will be similar, if not even even more minor than the one we just had! But I expect as soon as cases start rising again some of the online media outlets will be up to their old scare mongering nonsense again. I remember one of them publishing an article back in September saying "Covid cases are starting to rise again" when weekly cases had risen by just 0.5%!!! Yes you read that right, just 0.5%!! Absolutely ridiculous!! And then another saying something like "A TERRIFYING Autumn Covid wave has begun"!!!! Absolutely ridiculous!! I think the vast vast majority of people aren't falling for nonsense like that again now!!!!

I notice though that the mainstream TV news seemed to behave itself this time during this current "wave". Unlike the previous waves before that, I saw no mention of "Covid cases on the rise again" on the likes of ITV News and Good Morning Britain. Hopefully they've moved on from their previous obsession with Covid now.

It's high time though that the Covid stats are stopped completely now, to stop all this obsession with the Covid stats! The governent originally said they would be scrapped by Autumn 2021. That didn't happen! Then they said they would be scrapped by Easter 2022 as part of the "Living with Covid plan". That didn't happen!

A few months or so ago I thought that there was about a 50% chance that mandatory face covering laws would UNNECESSARILY return again temporarily this winter(like what happened last winter). But now I'm feeling much much more confident that nonsense won't be coming back again. I'd say there's only about a 1% chance it will happen now!