Austria (and perhaps other European countries?) return to full lockdown

[Bungle73]

If the objection is to the word 'experimental', I'm not sure how else to describe something that is still in phase 3 clinical trials, and will be for at least another year.

This old rubbish. It perfectly normal for a newly deployed vaccine to be monitored. It is STANDARD PROCEDURE!

 

[Cdd89]

Basically you are making the Fallacy of Relative Privation.

The fallacy doesn’t apply because those other restrictions/impositions — which I am highlighting as More Bad — are (or should be) direct outcomes of the hospitalisation (i.e. vaccination) rate.

It comes from a position of accepting that those other outcomes are already considered socially acceptable to the majority in response to high levels of hospitalisation, and that this position is not likely to change; they are therefore for the sake of this argument considered as fixed outcomes.

 

[yorkie]

If the objection is to the word 'experimental', I'm not sure how else to describe something that is still in phase 3 clinical trials, and will be for at least another year.

It's down to semantics. What exactly are you saying is "experiment" and how do you define it?

To the average person, these vaccines really aren't experimental in any meaningful sense of the term.

The data we have on the effectiveness of these vaccines in a relatively short time is huge. People may complain about how quickly the data has been but this is due to huge sums being thrown at it and huge amounts of data collected

I don't understand how anyone with any sense can object to these vaccines; the alternative would either be crippling lockdowns or an acceptance of many deaths.

 

[MikeWM]

This old rubbish. It perfectly normal for a newly deployed vaccine to be monitored. It is STANDARD PROCEDURE!

There is nothing normal about starting phase 4 trials (community rollout, with ongoing vigilance) before phase 3 is finished.

However, as I've pointed out before, I've no objection to this happening in this case, given the degree of (mostly irrational) panic over this particular virus, *as long as takeup is entirely voluntary*. But coercion, or even worse mandation, is totally unacceptable.

It's down to semantics. What exactly are you saying is "experiment" and how do you define it?

They're still in phase 3 clinical trials, as above. Until they are complete, as far as I am concerned, they are 'experimental'. I'm happy to start using a better term if someone can come up with one that adequately describes the circumstances.

I don't understand how anyone with any sense can object to these vaccines; the alternative would either be crippling lockdowns or an acceptance of many deaths.

I've no objection to them being available. I have significant and fundamental objections to coercion, and even stronger objections to mandation.

 

[SargeNpton]

Given how dodgy the 'hospitals at breaking point' stories from the UK are (i.e. media concentrating on specific hospitals where COVID patients tend to be sent in a region), I'm also inclined to take the Austria stories with a pinch of salt unless I see proof otherwise.

Talk to some doctors and nurses (or even the admin staff) at any UK hospital. Those I know are exhausted from working at their limit for nearly two years. Those not directly working with Covid patients have seen their workloads increase as some of their colleagues have been seconded to Covid duties.

 

[Bungle73]

There is nothing normal about starting phase 4 trials (community rollout, with ongoing vigilance) before phase 3 is finished.

However, as I've pointed out before, I've no objection to this happening in this case, given the degree of (mostly irrational) panic over this particular virus, *as long as takeup is entirely voluntary*. But coercion, or even worse mandation, is totally unacceptable.



They're still in phase 3 clinical trials, as above. Until they are complete, as far as I am concerned, they are 'experimental'. I'm happy to start using a better term if someone can come up with one that adequately describes the circumstances.



I've no objection to them being available. I have significant and fundamental objections to coercion, and even stronger objections to mandation.

Which part of phase 3 has not been finished?

 

[kristiang85]

Talk to some doctors and nurses (or even the admin staff) at any UK hospital. Those I know are exhausted from working at their limit for nearly two years. Those not directly working with Covid patients have seen their workloads increase as some of their colleagues have been seconded to Covid duties.

I've heard many saying the opposite too. The ones who I konw are off their feet were also the same way prior to COVID as well. One friend who works in a Nottingham hospital once said to me she was wondering why nobody ever made news that they were on 'red alert' (or whatever it was called, I can't remember) prior to 2020, yet now it is newsworthy.

There are some hospitals which are completely overrun more than normal, but there are also those who are fine.

 

[MikeWM]

Which part of phase 3 has not been finished?

The part where you work out how long the vaccine is effective for (rather important given the booster debate) and what short/medium-term side-effects the vaccine may have. That's why they don't complete for the Covid vaccines until late 2022/early 2023, because absent a time machine, you literally can't do it more quickly.

In any event, this is rather off-topic, and it is a very important topic, so I'd suggest moving this debate to a more appropriate thread.

 

[Kite159]

How long before some labour MPs demands Boris follow suit to "protect the NHS" etc?

 

[yorkie]

Talk to some doctors and nurses (or even the admin staff) at any UK hospital. Those I know are exhausted from working at their limit for nearly two years. Those not directly working with Covid patients have seen their workloads increase as some of their colleagues have been seconded to Covid duties.

Every year the NHS is under pressure; this year the pressure is mostly due to the usual autumn/winter pressures as well as the effects of lockdown measures, rather than Covid patients.

It's absolutely imperative we get back to normal and stay that way

And everyone who gets vaccinated helps with that; those who refuse the vaccine have the right to refuse but are absolutely not helping the situation and are going to have to be infected (probably more than once) in order to build up good immunity.

The only way out is through immunity, whether that be through vaccines or natural infection.

Lockdowns are counterproductive and vaccine scepticism isn't something I have time for either.

 

[duncanp]

How long before some labour MPs demands Boris follow suit to "protect the NHS" etc?

Probably about 5 minutes, if your're lucky.

But don't let said Labour MPs read the following article about anti lockdown Sweden having Western Europe's LOWEST INFECTION RATE.

Sweden now has Western Europe's LOWEST Covid infection rate

The Scandinavian nation - which was subject to international scrutiny last year when it refused to lockdown - is currently recording 85.4 cases per million people, compared to the UK's 580.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Anti-lockdown Sweden now has Western Europe's LOWEST Covid infection rate despite wave rolling across the continent — after Swedes were told they don't need to be tested if they're double-vaccinated​

• Oxford University-based research platform Our World in Data says there are 85.4 cases per million people
• This is 12 times the infection rate in the Netherlands, and almost seven times that in the UK and Germany
• But officials have told the double-vaccinated — which make up seven in ten people — not to get swabbed
• Critics say this has left Sweden 'in the dark' over the true extent of its current Covid wave

Sweden now has the lowest Covid infection rate in western Europe — after double-vaccinated nationals were told they don't have to test for the virus even if they get symptoms.

The Scandinavian nation — which was subject to international scrutiny last year when it refused to lockdown — is currently recording 85.4 cases per million people, according to Oxford University research site Our World in Data.

By comparison, the rate is nearly 1,400 per million in Europe's current Covid capital Austria, which today announced it is going back into a full lockdown from Monday.

Sweden's infection rate is far lower than other Western European countries like the Netherlands (1,048.7), Britain (581), Germany (536), and France (201).

And for the first time in the pandemic, Sweden is recording fewer cases per population size than its Scandinavian neighbours Denmark (655), Norway (351) and Finland (150).

But critics say Sweden has been left 'in the dark' over the true extent of its coronavirus wave because the double-vaccinated, equivalent to almost seven in ten people, are not being routinely swabbed.

Last week, Sweden broke ranks with its European neighbours once again and told Swedes they did not have to get tested if they were fully jabbed, even if they had symptoms. Covid swabbing rates plunged 35 per cent last week, compared to a month earlier.

But this week the policy was reversed in response to rising cases on the continent. A fresh wave of Delta is rolling across the continent and putting pressure on hospitals once again, which has forced most in the EU to bring back some form of curbs.

Latest figures show Sweden is only carrying out 1.26 tests per 1,000 people, which is also the lowest number in western Europe.

Boris Johnson warned this week that Europe's wave could spill onto Britain's shores, but virologists say that the continent is behind the UK which saw a surge in cases over the summer.

Sweden paused free Covid tests for the vaccinated last week but will restart the scheme from November 22.

At the time, its health agency argued the resources for testing could be better used elsewhere and that there was no need to test the fully vaccinated because they have a low risk of getting sick and are less likely to spread the disease.

It is currently carrying out just 1.26 tests per 1,000 people, the lowest number in western Europe. For comparison, the UK is carrying out 12 times more swabs, Austria 47 times more, and France almost four times more.

Swedes have complained that Covid tests are inconvenient because — unlike in Britain — they require people to submit their bank ID and speak to clinicians who decide whether they should be swabbed.

The Scandinavian nation became an international outlier last year when it defied scientific advice and refused to follow the rest of the world in shutting down society to curb the virus' spread.

Although Sweden chose not to lock down completely early in the pandemic, it did introduce stricter legally-binding curbs last winter as cases and deaths rose.

Sweden dropped its final Covid curbs on September 29, when it cancelled its recommendation to work from home.

Unlike other European countries it has never made face masks compulsory or enforced compulsory lockdowns.

But from December 1 the country is ramping up Covid restrictions to require everyone attending events of more than 100 people to confirm they are double-vaccinated.

Anders Tegnell — Sweden's chief epidemiologist and the architect of its no lockdown approach — has warned more restrictions may be needed to curb the spread of the virus.

He said yesterday: 'If we have the continued low pressure from the virus which we have just now, then maybe proof of vaccination [for larger public gatherings] would be enough.

'But experiences from many other European countries — the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria — suggest that if the spread of the virus increases, then this is not enough.'

Sweden is middle of the road when it comes to vaccine uptake in western Europe. Some 68.7 per cent of the entire population have had both doses of the virus.

This is slightly above the UK (67.5 per cent double-jabbed) but below other nations including Spain (80.2 per cent) and the Netherlands (73.5 per cent). In Austria vaccine uptake is 63.9 per cent.

Sweden is currently offering booster shots to all over-65s from six months after their second dose, and eventually plans to expand the roll out to all over-16s. It has also recently started offering jabs to 12 to 15-year-olds, although reports suggest uptake has been low.

For comparison, Britain is currently offering booster doses to all over-40s and first jabs to 12 to 15-year-olds. There have been suggestions this roll out could be expanded further.

Sweden has cut a different path to other European countries through out the pandemic, choosing to rely on citizens to make the right choices during the first wave instead of locking down.

Last winter it imposed more restrictions bringing more in line with the rest of Europe including limiting the number of people who could attend outdoor concerts, cinemas and markets, and curtailing opening hours for bars.

Dr Raghib Ali, an epidemiologist at Cambridge University, told MailOnline earlier this month: 'Whether you think Sweden's strategy was a success story comes down to which countries you compare it to.

'If you think it should have a similar rate [of Covid deaths] to its neighbours Finland, Norway and Denmark or other countries like Germany and the Netherlands?

'Whichever side you come down on decides whether it did better or worse.'

Dr Ali said that one takeaway from Sweden's voluntary lockdown system was that it shows the power of people's small behavioural changes.

'Although Sweden didn't have a Government-enforced lockdown, it did have a type of voluntary lockdown that was well-adhered to.

'What we've learned from Sweden - and the UK - is that people's voluntary behaviour can get countries over a peak without mandated restrictions, even though they alone cannot prevent big outbreaks.'

It comes after Austria today made Covid vaccines compulsory for all residents and imposed a full nationwide lockdown.

Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said that all 8.9million residents will need to have received both doses of the Covid vaccine or face 'penalties' by February 1. It is assumed under-12s are exempt from the requirement, as they are not currently being offered jabs in the country.

Lockdown measures in the country will see everyone barred from leaving their homes from Monday, with all non-essential shops closed along with most workplaces and schools.

Previously only unvaccinated residents had been barred from leaving their homes, or attending the workplace or schools.

Some 63.9 per cent of Austrians are vaccinated against the virus, one of the lowest uptakes of the jabs in western Europe.

The shock announcement comes as Europe is now in the midst of its biggest ever Covid wave with the continent's one-day infection tally hitting a record high on Wednesday of 310,000 cases. This topped the same time last year when there were 290,000 cases logged.

Ireland today placed its hospitals on a 'war footing' after imposing a night-time curfew for hospitality businesses. Routine operations have been shelved again to make way fro Covid patients amid a warning that intensive care facilities face 'unthinkable' choices over who to care for.

And in Germany almost 30million vaccines need to be administered before the end of the year to ward off the worst effects of the winter wave, which could see the number of shots dished out daily doubled.

 

[westv]

Probably about 5 minutes, if your're lucky.

But don't let said Labour MPs read the following article about anti lockdown Sweden having Western Europe's LOWEST INFECTION RATE.

Sweden now has Western Europe's LOWEST Covid infection rate

The Scandinavian nation - which was subject to international scrutiny last year when it refused to lockdown - is currently recording 85.4 cases per million people, compared to the UK's 580.

www.dailymail.co.uk

UK Covid tests per 1,000 people is around 12.7. Sweden's is around 1.3. No wonder their infection rate is low.

 

[MikeWM]

And everyone who gets vaccinated helps with that; those who refuse the vaccine have the right to refuse

The problem is that we're getting to the point where this 'right to refuse' is being alarmingly and swiftly removed. Fortunately not yet here in England, but we're increasingly alone in this.

but are absolutely not helping the situation and are going to have to be infected (probably more than once)

I agree everyone is going to be exposed to the virus (if they haven't already). But why would those naturally infected need to be so 'probably more than once'?

 

[Bantamzen]

Talk to some doctors and nurses (or even the admin staff) at any UK hospital. Those I know are exhausted from working at their limit for nearly two years. Those not directly working with Covid patients have seen their workloads increase as some of their colleagues have been seconded to Covid duties.

How about we dial back time to say 1994. At that time time I was dating a student nurse who often had to pull 12-18 hour shifts, whilst junior doctors had to stay on site for up to 72 hours, catching a bit of sleep when they could?

The point is that the NHS has these problems every single year for decades.

 

[brad465]

How long before some labour MPs demands Boris follow suit to "protect the NHS" etc?

Not so much Labour MPs, even though some probably will; it's any SAGE members who like this move by Austria demanding it who we need to be most worried about. Perhaps Neil Ferguson will substitute Italy with Austria in his "and I realised we could" quote.

 

[Fragezeichnen]

Every year the NHS is under pressure; this year the pressure is far worse than usual.

It's absolutely imperative we deal with the situation immediately.

And everyone who gets vaccinated helps with that; those who refuse the vaccine should not have the right to refuse because they are absolutely not helping the situation and are going to have to be infected (probably more than once) in order to build up good immunity.

The only way out is through use of all possible measures.

Lockdowns are productive and vaccine scepticism is something that must be taken into account.

 

[yorksrob]

It's worth remembering that Central government tightly controlls the number of people who are allowed to train in the medical profession, therefore any shortages of medical staff, long hours etc are entirely of successive Governments' own making.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2021 ==

Every year the NHS is under pressure; this year the pressure is far worse than usual.

It's absolutely imperative we deal with the situation immediately.

And everyone who gets vaccinated helps with that; those who refuse the vaccine should not have the right to refuse because they are absolutely not helping the situation and are going to have to be infected (probably more than once) in order to build up good immunity.

The only way out is through use of all possible measures.

Lockdowns are productive and vaccine scepticism is something that must be taken into account.

No, lockdown's time is done. We won't be complying any more.

 

[221129]

this year the pressure is far worse than usual.

Mainly due to the damage done in the previous 12 months.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2021 ==

The only way out is through use of all possible measures.

No. It isn't. And anybody with any semblance of sense would be able to see that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2021 ==

Lockdowns are productive

No. They are not.

 

[brad465]

Every year the NHS is under pressure; this year the pressure is far worse than usual.

It's absolutely imperative we deal with the situation immediately.

And everyone who gets vaccinated helps with that; those who refuse the vaccine should not have the right to refuse because they are absolutely not helping the situation and are going to have to be infected (probably more than once) in order to build up good immunity.

The only way out is through use of all possible measures.

Lockdowns are productive and vaccine scepticism is something that must be taken into account.

There's a difference between what's desirable and what can actually be achieved.

 

[yorksrob]

Mainly due to the damage done in the previous 12 months.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2021 ==


No. It isn't. And anybody with any semblance of sense would be able to see that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2021 ==


No. They are not.

Indeed, lockdowns have already done far too much damage to the nation's health, both in terms of delayed treatments and lack of exposure and immunity to normal seasonal viruses for them to be contemplated again

 

[Busaholic]

Given how dodgy the 'hospitals at breaking point' stories from the UK are (i.e. media concentrating on specific hospitals where COVID patients tend to be sent in a region), I'm also inclined to take the Austria stories with a pinch of salt unless I see proof otherwise.

Austria has fewer than a thousand Intensive Care beds and, in the last lockdown, had to send covid patients to Germany when they all got filled: this time, they won't be able to do that as Germany is experiencing their highest rate of infection yet. As for covid patients in the U.K. only being directed to specific hospitals, I can only comment on S.W. England where all the relatively few hospitals that offer, and are staffed for, 24 hours a day services have always had covid patients

 

[Yew]

, I can only comment on S.W. England where all the relatively few hospitals that offer, and are staffed for, 24 hours a day services have always had covid patients

And how exactly does this matter?

 

[initiation]

Austria has fewer than a thousand Intensive Care beds

Austria also has a small population - less than 9 million. Historically NHS England have had ~4,000 ICU beds, up to a maximum of 6,000 during various Covid waves.
So they are in really no worse position than us, and probably slightly better.

-

The Austrian move to lockdown could unfortunately start a chain reaction of lockdowns across Europe. We have seen this time and time again over the last 2 years.
I really hope Westminster continue to resist calls for any sort of restrictions.

 

[scarby]

The only way out is through use of all possible measures.

Lockdowns are productive...

No it is not, and no they are not.

You only have to look at the epidemic curve for Sweden last winter, which did not have a 'lockdown' and where masks have never been widely used, and one can see it is almost the same as the rise and fall of the curves in countries like France, Italy and Germany over the same period.

France had vicious restrictions right through from mid-October to mid-May, during which time bars and restaurants and other places of leisure were all completely shut, plus an overnight curfew, plus of course massive mask mandates, and yet its cases rose again in the New Year and did not come down until early May when they fell sharply - exactly the same pattern as Sweden at that same time of the year.

 

[bramling]

It's down to semantics. What exactly are you saying is "experiment" and how do you define it?

To the average person, these vaccines really aren't experimental in any meaningful sense of the term.

The data we have on the effectiveness of these vaccines in a relatively short time is huge. People may complain about how quickly the data has been but this is due to huge sums being thrown at it and huge amounts of data collected

I don't understand how anyone with any sense can object to these vaccines; the alternative would either be crippling lockdowns or an acceptance of many deaths.

I'd certainly regard them as rather novel when they first came out. Hence why many younger people I know have held back.

This seems eminently sensible for someone in their 20s or 30s, whereas for someone in their 60s or 70s I'd definitely have been taking it.

With time now having passed, the scales perhaps tip more towards younger people taking it. However I don't think anyone should be forced or coerced into taking it if they feel they don't want to.

Human nature being what it is, those holding out are more likely to take it through gentle persuasion rather than being forced to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2021 ==

Austria also has a small population - less than 9 million. Historically NHS England have had ~4,000 ICU beds, up to a maximum of 6,000 during various Covid waves.
So they are in really no worse position than us, and probably slightly better.

-

The Austrian move to lockdown could unfortunately start a chain reaction of lockdowns across Europe. We have seen this time and time again over the last 2 years.
I really hope Westminster continue to resist calls for any sort of restrictions.

I suspect there will almost certainly be a chain reaction across mainland Europe.

What counts in our favour here is furlough having finished. I think that makes a lockdown rather more difficult to implement now.

Perhaps we could have a voluntary one - the lockdown fanatics wall themselves up at home, and manage their own finances through it (i.e. living off any savings they may have, or perhaps sell their house to release a bit of cash to cover living costs). That might focus a few minds.

But we need to watch the "copycat effect" very closely. What's happening in Austria is deeply concerning IMO, on a number of perspectives.

 

[AlterEgo]

I do wonder if they have stopped to think for even a few minutes on where this is going.

Vaccines were always promised to be the way out. Countries cannot go flipping in and out of random lockdowns for all eternity.

Indeed. At least a mandatory vaccination law makes a tiny bit of sense even if it is very heavy handed. Lockdowns 19 months into the pandemic is a total failure of leadership in Europe.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2021 ==

Strange? Is it very different from Germany?

Go to Austria and say that and let me know how you get on!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2021 ==

Every year the NHS is under pressure; this year the pressure is far worse than usual.

It's absolutely imperative we deal with the situation immediately.

And everyone who gets vaccinated helps with that; those who refuse the vaccine should not have the right to refuse because they are absolutely not helping the situation and are going to have to be infected (probably more than once) in order to build up good immunity.

The only way out is through use of all possible measures.

Lockdowns are productive and vaccine scepticism is something that must be taken into account.

Lockdowns aren’t productive, although the only part of your post I agree with is that the main reason it’s come in again now is because people aren’t vaccinated (whether that is scientifically sound or not).

 

[yorkie]

Every year the NHS is under pressure; this year the pressure is far worse than usual.

Due to lockdowns; see my previous post on this subject.

It's absolutely imperative we deal with the situation immediately.

It is absolutely imperative we get back to normal immediately and stay there.

And everyone who gets vaccinated helps with that; those who refuse the vaccine should not have the right to refuse because they are absolutely not helping the situation and are going to have to be infected (probably more than once) in order to build up good immunity.

They are going to gain immunity through natural infection but we can't forcibly vaccinate someone.

The only way out is through use of all possible measures.

The way out is to use appropriate measures, not inappropriate measures as Austria is doing.

Lockdowns are productive and vaccine scepticism is something that must be taken into account.

Lockdowns cause many problems and are not constructive; they kick the can down the road and cause all sorts of other problems

 

[Cdd89]

At least a mandatory vaccination law makes a tiny bit of sense even if it is very heavy handed.

If a society is prepared to go into lockdown — which at this stage it absolutely shouldn’t — then I don’t think it’s heavy handed at all. Nothing will persuade me that lockdowns are less impactful than forced vaccination. And that’s despite thinking compulsory medical procedures are ethically awful.

This really should be a false equivalence, but Austria has made it a real one.

 

[SargeNpton]

Due to lockdowns; see my previous post on this subject.

It is absolutely imperative we get back to normal immediately and stay there.

They are going to gain immunity through natural infection but we can't forcibly vaccinate someone.

The way out is to use appropriate measures, not inappropriate measures as Austria is doing.


Lockdowns cause many problems and are not constructive; they kick the can down the road and cause all sorts of other problems

Or they are going to suffer the long-term consequences of the effects of repeated infection; or even die from the second/subsequent infection as their body was weakened after the first case.

 

[hst43102]

The mRNA vaccines could at a stretch be classed as "experimental", but the technology behind the AZ vaccine is almost as old as I am.

The very idea of an attempt at vaccinating every single person in the world within a couple of years is experimental, i.e. it's never been done before.

I wasn't anti-vaccine when it first appeared. Since then I'm finding myself agreeing more and more with the anti-vaccine campaigners.