ATW/Keolis Amey Wales stock shortages

[CardiffKid]

Shouldn't TfW Rail be panicking already?

TfW are "new" but the Welsh Government have known about both the need for PRM modifications and the shortage of seats for a while know and have gleefully done f**k all about it.

 

[PHILIPE]

TfW are "new" but the Welsh Government have known about both the need for PRM modifications and the shortage of seats for a while know and have gleefully done f**k all about it.

All 5 years

 

[CardiffKid]

All 5 years

5 years?

 

[Cardiff123]

5 years?

As in its widely known that Welsh Govt were warned by Porterbrook about the looming Welsh DMU crisis in 2013 if they didn't take immediate action then to implement a plan to start modifying the fleet.
They were warned in various committees repeatedly after that as well.

 

[CardiffKid]

As in its widely known that Welsh Govt were warned by Porterbrook about the looming Welsh DMU crisis in 2013 if they didn't take immediate action then to implement a plan to start modifying the fleet.
They were warned in various committees repeatedly after that as well.

Ah I see, yes the industry gave a ‘formal warning’ back in 2013, but the PRM issue has been known about for a decade now, as has the shortage of rolling stock and the ever increasing passenger count (plus the extra services the WG have insisted upon). The only thing the WG have done is the 769 project and that’s now six months late and counting.

Wales have had three transport ministers by the way since 2013.

 

[Gareth Marston]

This Saturday TfW have gone for not running services past Wolverhampton so its Aberystwyth to Wolverhampton (ATW) again! Officially its due to Storm Callum......but there is a game on in Cardiff...

Which in theory frees 4 units up.

 

[Cardiff123]

This Saturday TfW have gone for not running services past Wolverhampton so its Aberystwyth to Wolverhampton (ATW) again! Officially its due to Storm Callum......but there is a game on in Cardiff...

Which in theory frees 4 units up.

What have ATW go to do with it?

There's a Wales rugby international match in Cardiff every Saturday in November, although the storm Callum excuse will be wearing thin with passengers by the end of this month.

 

[tomuk]

What have ATW go to do with it?

Gareth is referring back to the early days of ATW. Originally the Aberystwyth to Birminghams went to New Street only with a short layover. This meant more often then not when running late they ran short and turned back at Wolverhampton to make up time.

 

[sw1ller]

Gareth is referring back to the early days of ATW. Originally the Aberystwyth to Birminghams went to New Street only with a short layover. This meant more often then not when running late they ran short and turned back at Wolverhampton to make up time.

I think Gareth was making a joke out of what the initials Aberystwyth to Wolverhampton make.....

 

[Gareth Marston]

What have ATW go to do with it?

.

Back in the day (2003 to 2008) when Arriva Trains Wales were suppose to run to Birmingham New St they turned around at Wolverhampton due to late running on a monotonously regular basis - often leaving passengers stranded at New St. Hence "Always Terminates Wolverhampton" - what fond memory's.......

 

[Welshman]

This Saturday TfW have gone for not running services past Wolverhampton so its Aberystwyth to Wolverhampton (ATW) again! Officially its due to Storm Callum......but there is a game on in Cardiff...

Which in theory frees 4 units up.

And tomorrow, Friday 9th Nov, for the second day running, that well-known quasi-TOC Llew Jones International is in charge of services down the Conwy Valley. Today, this was because of "a problem currently under investigation" - tomorrow it is because of "more trains than usual needing repairs at the same time"

 

[krus_aragon]

Llew Jones have ended up masters of the Conwy Valley recently, running both the 19 and X19 bus services and now the inevitable rail replacement services.

I wonder if there's any connection between their "Llew Jones International" title and Llanrwst's old motto of independence: "Cymru, Lloegr a Llanrwst" (Wales, England and Llanrwst)? :P

 

[Welshman]

They're also reminiscent of the old Central Trains in operating NX375 - Wales [Bangor] to Great Yarmouth

 

[Envoy]

Looks like Taf Valley Coaches are providing the Fishguard to Carmarthen 2E19 this morning:http://tafvalleycoaches.co.uk/vehicle_fleet.php

 

[krus_aragon]

A spot of conjecture:

The new Mk4 loco-hauled rakes are due to enter service in December 2019 (iirc) on the Cardiff-Holyhead route, replacing the two Mk3 rakes that currently run Cardiff-Holyhead and Manchester-North Wales. If, as we suspect, some of the sprinter fleet will still be awaiting PRM modifications, might the Mk3 rakes be retained (with derogations) on Manchester-North Wales to release more 175s to deputise for the 15x units still in the works? This might be preferable to summoning Pacers from Northern.

(Route clearance and staff training shouldn't be an issue, and the only stations not already served by the current rake are Shotton and the request stops west of Llandudno Junction. Timings and diagramming would need a look, though.)

 

[Dai Corner]

A spot of conjecture:

The new Mk4 loco-hauled rakes are due to enter service in December 2019 (iirc) on the Cardiff-Holyhead route, replacing the two Mk3 rakes that currently run Cardiff-Holyhead and Manchester-North Wales. If, as we suspect, some of the sprinter fleet will still be awaiting PRM modifications, might the Mk3 rakes be retained (with derogations) on Manchester-North Wales to release more 175s to deputise for the 15x units still in the works? This might be preferable to summoning Pacers from Northern.

(Route clearance and staff training shouldn't be an issue, and the only stations not already served by the current rake are Shotton and the request stops west of Llandudno Junction. Timings and diagramming would need a look, though.)

That sounds like a sensible idea. It would probably be more expensive than the Pacers, but worth 5he extra in my opinion.

 

[Gareth Marston]

A spot of conjecture:

The new Mk4 loco-hauled rakes are due to enter service in December 2019 (iirc) on the Cardiff-Holyhead route, replacing the two Mk3 rakes that currently run Cardiff-Holyhead and Manchester-North Wales. If, as we suspect, some of the sprinter fleet will still be awaiting PRM modifications, might the Mk3 rakes be retained (with derogations) on Manchester-North Wales to release more 175s to deputise for the 15x units still in the works? This might be preferable to summoning Pacers from Northern.

(Route clearance and staff training shouldn't be an issue, and the only stations not already served by the current rake are Shotton and the request stops west of Llandudno Junction. Timings and diagramming would need a look, though.)

The rake is paid for by Arriva (as part of the national deal to do with DB's takeover of Arriva) TfW have got it sub leased till Dec 19 - then i dare say that Chiltern have plans for it especially as there Oxford route esp Bicester Village is causing them capacity issues.

 

[Gareth Marston]

For the first time (??) since their takeover TfW have not got any cancellations due to "more trains than usual needing repair" today.

Hopefully with the Tonga game not being a sell out and with a 1430 kick off and a more dispersed journey home there wont be any need to terminate at Wolverhampton this Saturday.

And boosting demand into the West Midlands from Shropshire/Mid Wales we have

The Christmas Market starts in Birmingham on the 13th November.

At the NEC we have
Festive Gift Fair 15th to 18th
Art & Antique for Everyone 15th to 18th
Worldskills Live UK 15th to 17th
Motorcycle Live 2018 from 17th to 25th
MCM Comic Con 24th to 25th
Warley National Model Railway Exhibition 24th to 25th
Baby to Toddler 24th to 25th
The 2018 Birmingham International Tatoo 24th to 25th
BBC Good Food Show 29th to 2nd December.

 

[krus_aragon]

The rake is paid for by Arriva (as part of the national deal to do with DB's takeover of Arriva) TfW have got it sub leased till Dec 19 - then i dare say that Chiltern have plans for it especially as there Oxford route esp Bicester Village is causing them capacity issues.

What of the other Mk3 rake?

 

[Gareth Marston]

What of the other Mk3 rake?

Not sure of leasing arrangement on it but you would have to take out the First Class/Kitchen car and run as it 3 car rake on the North Wales Coast which isn't going to do peak into Manchester......

 

[1179_Clee2]

Not sure of leasing arrangement on it but you would have to take out the First Class/Kitchen car and run as it 3 car rake on the North Wales Coast which isn't going to do peak into Manchester......

Why would you need to do that ??? as no need to run a 3 car rake.

Coaches available to run current services
2 x RFB
10 x TSO
3 X DVT
If you used them on Manchester services 2 trains (4 x TSO's plus DVT) 2 spare TSO's and 1 spare DVT and don't use the RFB's.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Why would you need to do that ??? as no need to run a 3 car rake.

Coaches available to run current services
2 x RFB
10 x TSO
3 X DVT
If you used them on Manchester services 2 trains (4 x TSO's plus DVT) 2 spare TSO's and 1 spare DVT and don't use the RFB's.

Id take Wikipedia with a pinch of salt and your also appear to contain the North Wales Rake owned by Arriva in your calculations which are not available beyond Dec19.

 

[1179_Clee2]

Id take Wikipedia with a pinch of salt and your also appear to contain the North Wales Rake owned by Arriva in your calculations which are not available beyond Dec19.

FACT I use Platform 5's pocket books not Wikipedia
FACT You said use the WAG rake of coaches going to Manchester, without the the First class/Kitchen car (see your post #363)
FACT At some point next year the WAG will be replaced with MK 4 coaches
FACT All the MK 3 coaches listed in my post #264 (Arriva owned) would then be available by use for services to Manchester IF NEEDED or WANTED as they are subleased until the PRM deadline (see post #260)

 

[Gareth Marston]

FACT I use Platform 5's pocket books not Wikipedia
FACT You said use the WAG rake of coaches going to Manchester, without the the First class/Kitchen car (see your post #363)
FACT At some point next year the WAG will be replaced with MK 4 coaches
FACT All the MK 3 coaches listed in my post #264 (Arriva owned) would then be available by use for services to Manchester IF NEEDED or WANTED as they are subleased until the PRM deadline (see post #260)

Krus-Aragon post #258 was talking about the possibility of retaining the MK3 sets post December 2019 once the Mk4 sets are (hopefully) in the franchise. Not before.

All the info I have seen suggests the Mk4s are scheduled to be introduced in time for Dec 19 timetable change not before so I think your idea is a non starter unless you can point to a source that says an earlier introduction date for the MK4's?

Thankyou for looking at your Platform 5 and if there all owned by Arriva then the chances of them being retained in the Wales and Border franchise beyond Dec 19 are minimal due to the capacity problems Chiltern are experiencing on their Oxford route and also the Cross Country franchise extension and sourcing extra stock for it.

 

[43096]

FACT I use Platform 5's pocket books not Wikipedia
FACT You said use the WAG rake of coaches going to Manchester, without the the First class/Kitchen car (see your post #363)
FACT At some point next year the WAG will be replaced with MK 4 coaches
FACT All the MK 3 coaches listed in my post #264 (Arriva owned) would then be available by use for services to Manchester IF NEEDED or WANTED as they are subleased until the PRM deadline (see post #260)

FACT Platform 5 books are not always correct.

 

[Llanigraham]

For the first time (??) since their takeover TfW have not got any cancellations due to "more trains than usual needing repair" today.

Hopefully with the Tonga game not being a sell out and with a 1430 kick off and a more dispersed journey home there wont be any need to terminate at Wolverhampton this Saturday.

And boosting demand into the West Midlands from Shropshire/Mid Wales we have

The Christmas Market starts in Birmingham on the 13th November.

At the NEC we have
Festive Gift Fair 15th to 18th
Art & Antique for Everyone 15th to 18th
Worldskills Live UK 15th to 17th
Motorcycle Live 2018 from 17th to 25th
MCM Comic Con 24th to 25th
Warley National Model Railway Exhibition 24th to 25th
Baby to Toddler 24th to 25th
The 2018 Birmingham International Tatoo 24th to 25th
BBC Good Food Show 29th to 2nd December.

Think I might give going to Warley a break this year!!

 

[anamyd]

A spot of conjecture:

The new Mk4 loco-hauled rakes are due to enter service in December 2019 (iirc) on the Cardiff-Holyhead route, replacing the two Mk3 rakes that currently run Cardiff-Holyhead and Manchester-North Wales. If, as we suspect, some of the sprinter fleet will still be awaiting PRM modifications, might the Mk3 rakes be retained (with derogations) on Manchester-North Wales to release more 175s to deputise for the 15x units still in the works? This might be preferable to summoning Pacers from Northern.

(Route clearance and staff training shouldn't be an issue, and the only stations not already served by the current rake are Shotton and the request stops west of Llandudno Junction. Timings and diagramming would need a look, though.)

The PRM modifications on the 158s and 150s will take place during the rest of 2018 and the whole of 2019 so that's the period of time in which they need cover, so keeping the Mk3s in service in December 2019 only isn't really going to help, much less potentially not even the whole of that month! Whereas the 144s from Northern may be available much earlier next year... unless I'm missing something...?

 

[krus_aragon]

The Mk3 scenario would only be relevant if the PRM mods can't be finished before 2020 (and would need a PRM derogation to use).

If the Northern Pacers are available sooner, all the better.

 

[YorkshireLass]

Talking of Mk3s the North Wales LHCS seems to have lost a coach overnight which isn’t helping with overcrowding. Assume the absent one has gone to have wheelflats sorted out or similar?

 

[PHILIPE]

The PRM modifications on the 158s and 150s will take place during the rest of 2018 and the whole of 2019 so that's the period of time in which they need cover, so keeping the Mk3s in service in December 2019 only isn't really going to help, much less potentially not even the whole of that month! Whereas the 144s from Northern may be available much earlier next year... unless I'm missing something...?

Have you got a source regarding the 144s ? It seems to be suggestion/speculation/rumour at the moment but anything could happen.