ATW/Keolis Amey Wales stock shortages

[ATW158Xpress]

Lots of train cancellations on journey check this evening. unit shortage is getting worse by the day!

 

[PHILIPE]

Don't hold your breath. I can see bustitution for a while yet

Fears confirmed

 

[krus_aragon]

Things really are tight at the moment: the list of scheduled cancellations for tomorrow look very similar to today's: Nothing at all running on the Conwy Valley, several cancellations of morning services in West Wales, and a smattering of Marches/Swanline services being terminated short with some other services picking up stops.

I wonder what the ratio of storm damage / wheel flats / PRM mod absences is...

 

[Welshman]

Lots of train cancellations on journey check this evening. unit shortage is getting worse by the day!

You're not kidding!
My wife returned from Manchester on Tuesday on the 1752 Piccadilly to Holyhead. What was a 3-car 175[1], and for a time was the luxury of a 2x2 Car 175[0], was back to being a single 2-car unit!! "Crowded" was not the word and she was not impressed!
And as the final icing on the cake, it was terminated at Chester! Still, it was probably a relief to get off.

 

[Cardiff123]

Things really are tight at the moment: the list of scheduled cancellations for tomorrow look very similar to today's: Nothing at all running on the Conwy Valley, several cancellations of morning services in West Wales, and a smattering of Marches/Swanline services being terminated short with some other services picking up stops.

I wonder what the ratio of storm damage / wheel flats / PRM mod absences is...

If only Welsh Govt had been warned and we had predicted and had seen this situation coming..............(insert head in hands emoji)

 

[PHILIPE]

If only Welsh Govt had been warned and we had predicted and had seen this situation coming..............(insert head in hands emoji)

They were as far back as 2013 about the PRM Mods.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Conwy Valley buses on Saturday as well.

 

[anamyd]

Currently on 175-011 from Crewe to Shrewsbury (1908 Carmarthen service) and surprise surprise it's full and standing. I'm in the back cab end vestibule and was so rammed until Nantwich I almost f****d a woman and I'm not even straight.

 

[Mordac]

Currently on 175-011 (I think) from Crewe to Shrewsbury (1908 Carmarthen service) and surprise surprise it's full and standing. I'm in the back cab end vestibule and was so rammed until Nantwich I almost f***d a woman and I'm not even straight.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Currently on 175-011 (I think) from Crewe to Shrewsbury (1908 Carmarthen service) and surprise surprise it's full and standing. I'm in the back cab end vestibule and was so rammed until Nantwich I almost f***d a woman and I'm not even straight.

*hits imaginary like button*

Unpopular opinion perhaps but I feel like maybe until more stock comes in they bustitute:

Cardiff Bay shuttle (use the 153 on Valleys to free up a 150)
West of Carmarthen
Conway Valley Line

and reduce frequency on Valley Lines

to free up 150s. They could then operate double 150s on some 2 carriage 175 diagrams, and then use some of the 2 carriage 175s freed up by this to strengthen some of the remaining 2 carriage 175 diagrams.

 

[anamyd]

I'm now on a PRM modified 158 (818) for the first time on the 2032 Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth. Of course, before it even departed, I just had to try out the vacuum CET (disabled one). Seems to be working fine

 

[Gareth Marston]

daughter back from uni today no problems on 0831 TPE from Durham to Manchester Piccadily - busy leg York to Leeds. Not impressed with 2 car 175 on 1131 from Manchester to Carmarthan. But utterly disgusted at last leg. 1209 BhM Intl to AYW/PWL was 2 car , people were still stood leaving Newtown, staff had managed to get catering trolley in rear cab. People got off at Newtown who had stood from Wolverhampton 80 minutes if on time but was 15 down.

 

[Parallel]

Unfortunately, short forms do happen. Just look at the GWR network! My friends were on that train and it was standing room from Shrewsbury to Machynlleth.

I was on the one two hours before that was 4 coaches and only half loaded.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Unfortunately, short forms do happen. Just look at the GWR network! My friends were on that train and it was standing room from Shrewsbury to Machynlleth.

I was on the one two hours before that was 4 coaches and only half loaded.

0809 & 1009 ex INTL do not load heavy in the winter but can be rammed in summer.

My benchmark for the new franchise was the elimination of 2 car DMU's working long distance service into Manchester/Birmingham/Cardiff- TfW still have a long way to go.

Remember the specification for the franchise allowed 20 minutes standing around major cities at peak times- here we have an off peak service that has had people standing on it for 150 minutes!

 

[Honest Ross]

My benchmark for the new franchise was the elimination of 2 car DMU's working long distance service into Manchester/Birmingham/Cardiff- TfW still have a long way to go.

Remember the specification for the franchise allowed 20 minutes standing around major cities at peak times- here we have an off peak service that has had people standing on it for 150 minutes!

Haven't you spent the last few months ridiculing anyone who expected instant changes, yet here you are doing exactly that yourself. The hypocrisy is hilarious.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Haven't you spent the last few months ridiculing anyone who expected instant changes, yet here you are doing exactly that yourself. The hypocrisy is hilarious.

Stating that Transport for Wales have a long way to go to reach (my benchmark) and their own target is an accurate representation of whats happening at the moment which Transport for Wales concede themselves (see comments about managing expectation etc) . This was my daughters first experience of using Transport for Wales run services and she was not impressed.

As I and many other posters have commented the current unit shortage situation across the franchise (fall season damage repairs and units away for PRM modification) has been (sadly) predictable and could have been better managed strategically if repeated warnings over the last few years were heeded and acted on. However they haven't certainly not for this year so its a legitimate area of concern to comment on now as it was before the 15th October. We knew that there wasn't an instant answer and pointed this out to those that somehow expected an instant miracle.

I'm not sorry if this disappoints you as its the reality of where we are at the moment.

 

[Honest Ross]

Glad you can see your own hypocrisy. Complaining yourself about things you ridiculed others for complaining about.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Glad you can see your own hypocrisy. Complaining yourself about things you ridiculed others for complaining about.

No idea what your on about sorry - you seem to be mixed up.

 

[Rhydgaled]

If only Welsh Govt had been warned and we had predicted and had seen this situation coming..............(insert head in hands emoji)

They were as far back as 2013 about the PRM Mods.

About 10 years too late. The UK government should never have let a 15 year no-growth franchise in 2003; it should either have been a 20 year franchise with growth allowances (so that the TOC would be required to invest to make the fleet PRM compliant) or a 5-7 year no-growth one (meaning a new for-growth franchise let in 2010 could have been required to make the fleet compliant). I suppose in 2013 the Welsh Government could have ordered new trains or aranged a hire of LHCS but I can to some extent understand why they would consider it to be not their problem (no block-grant allocation from Westminister for spending on rail; not at the time anyway - I assume there is now that the franchise has been devolved).

I'm now on a PRM modified 158 (818) for the first time on the 2032 Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth. Of course, before it even departed, I just had to try out the vacuum CET (disabled one). Seems to be working fine

So, has Machynlleth got it's toilet-emptying facilities?

 

[Gareth Marston]

*hits imaginary like button*

Unpopular opinion perhaps but I feel like maybe until more stock comes in they bustitute:

Cardiff Bay shuttle (use the 153 on Valleys to free up a 150)
West of Carmarthen
Conway Valley Line

and reduce frequency on Valley Lines

to free up 150s. They could then operate double 150s on some 2 carriage 175 diagrams, and then use some of the 2 carriage 175s freed up by this to strengthen some of the remaining 2 carriage 175 diagrams.

The obvious place(s) to thin out services where there are alternatives are Holyhead to Cardiff (part of) and North Wales Coast esp as its winter now.

 

[craigybagel]

Unpopular opinion perhaps but I feel like maybe until more stock comes in they bustitute:

Cardiff Bay shuttle (use the 153 on Valleys to free up a 150)
West of Carmarthen
Conway Valley Line

and reduce frequency on Valley Lines

to free up 150s. They could then operate double 150s on some 2 carriage 175 diagrams, and then use some of the 2 carriage 175s freed up by this to strengthen some of the remaining 2 carriage 175 diagrams.

Never going to happen. Whilst I'm not saying some of your ideas don't have merit, previous actions under Arriva suggest little appetite for sacrificing Valley line services over mainline. I'd be very surprised in particular if Bay branch was touched - politically it wouldn't go down well with the folks in the WAG, and also it would take a huge chunk out of the entire franchise''s PRM in one go (IIRC, around 15%. 5 trains an hour each way all day soon adds up!).

 

[Dai Corner]

Never going to happen. Whilst I'm not saying some of your ideas don't have merit, previous actions under Arriva suggest little appetite for sacrificing Valley line services over mainline. I'd be very surprised in particular if Bay branch was touched - politically it wouldn't go down well with the folks in the WAG, and also it would take a huge chunk out of the entire franchise''s PRM in one go (IIRC, around 15%. 5 trains an hour each way all day soon adds up!).

Though in reality sacrificing the Cardiff Bay branch would not inconvenience passengers much, if at all, as there's the frequent Baycar bus on which ticket acceptance could be arranged.

 

[krus_aragon]

If there were an ammended timetable of bustitution for the Bay branch, wouldn't that take care of the PPM issue? (Leaving only the political ones.)

It's notable that the Conwy Valley and West Wales have already seen services suspended for lack of units, as well as between Shrewsbury and Cardiff (ex Holyhead) as Gareth suggested.

 

[PHILIPE]

If there were an ammended timetable of bustitution for the Bay branch, wouldn't that take care of the PPM issue? (Leaving only the political ones.)

It's notable that the Conwy Valley and West Wales have already seen services suspended for lack of units, as well as between Shrewsbury and Cardiff (ex Holyhead) as Gareth suggested.

Going back to the early days of Government in Cardiff Bay, the rail service to and from the Bay was enhanced with trains carrying fresh air around. If it was suggested the unit could be used on the day to cover shortages elsewhere, the reaction by the TOC was to say "They must run"

 

[Cardiff123]

Has anyone seen a fully PRM modified 150 yet? If TfW Rail start sending the 150s to be modified in January, 3 a month need to be done. If they can't start sending them away until the 769s arrive, assuming the 769s are in service by May/June, 6 a month need to be done.

As well as 158s left to do.

Are the buses ready?

 

[PHILIPE]

Has anyone seen a fully PRM modified 150 yet? If TfW Rail start sending the 150s to be modified in January, 3 a month need to be done. If they can't start sending them away until the 769s arrive, assuming the 769s are in service by May/June, 6 a month need to be done.

As well as 158s left to do.

Are the buses ready?

Seems difficult to find any information regarding the 150s apart from info that 284 and 285 are in but there is a suggestion that they could be undergoing corrosion work. When GWR ones were going in for corrosion problems to be rectified, some were taking many months depending on the severity. The have been stories coming from Northern that 144s going off lease were transferring to TFW as a stop gap as a result of the late 769s but it seems TFW know nothing about such an arrangement. Things could change, of course, especially if TFW start panicking.

 

[Cardiff123]

Seems difficult to find any information regarding the 150s apart from info that 284 and 285 are in but there is a suggestion that they could be undergoing corrosion work. When GWR ones were going in for corrosion problems to be rectified, some were taking many months depending on the severity. The have been stories coming from Northern that 144s going off lease were transferring to TFW as a stop gap as a result of the late 769s but it seems TFW know nothing about such an arrangement. Things could change, of course, especially if TFW start panicking.

Shouldn't TfW Rail be panicking already?

 

[anamyd]

158838 Shrewsbury to Wabtec Doncaster

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/K91540/2018/10/18/advanced

spotted at Aberystwyth station on the 7/11/18 2340 Machynlleth service still unmodified - maybe it was at Wabtec for something else...?

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Has anyone seen a fully PRM modified 150 yet? If TfW Rail start sending the 150s to be modified in January, 3 a month need to be done. If they can't start sending them away until the 769s arrive, assuming the 769s are in service by May/June, 6 a month need to be done.

As well as 158s left to do.

Are the buses ready?

If you're using "buses" as a euphemism for Northern's 144s, I'm afraid not!

 

[Cardiff123]

If you're using "buses" as a euphemism for Northern's 144s, I'm afraid not!

No I meant real, road replacement buses.