AT300s confirmed for South West services by DfT

[LateThanNever]

If Hitachi are ramping up their production capacity worldwide, and they're going to try and get lots of orders in Europe, then it is absurd to argue that they would just build another factory in Japan and ship them when they can have a large factory here for no extra cost over another Japanese one and then save on the shipping costs.

It is not only absurd, the lead time is extended and unreliable - ships are the original sometime never!

 

[Philip Phlopp]

I know. However, with the last mile capability of an 88 it would be possible to have an electric freight flow without needing to wire every last metre of track. The example I can think of is Grangemouth, where it could be a bit of a challenge to wire the tracks all the way into the refinery and port. However, the route can and will need to be wired to where there are proposals to build a new passenger station. A last-mile locomotive could run on electric power on the branch until the wires run out, at which point there would be no other services running fast along the tracks so speeds wouldn't be much above shunting speed. Other freight terminals could see the same - the first kilometre or so off the mainline could be wired so that freight can run on and off at normal speeds and then just trundle along at shunt speeds into the expensive part of the terminal.

Grangemouth is included in the current EGIP & CP5 electrification work, the electrification will extend to the Network Rail/FPA boundary alongside Dock Road.

I've no idea what additional electrification or shunting arrangements Ineos and Forth Ports are considering, if any.

 

[Class 170101]

Freight is a red herring because it is impossible to run an electric unless the whole route is electrified including the sidings/terminals at either end of the route and nobody wants to pay for these to be done!

Freight operators may well be forced to change their habits.

Freightliner run Class 86s and Class 90s as far as Ipswich with a loco change at Ipswich to reach Felixstowe by Class 66 or 70.

Even GBRF have been known to do the same now, Class 92 to Ipswich with Class 66 forward.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Grangemouth is included in the current EGIP & CP5 electrification work, the electrification will extend to the Network Rail/FPA boundary alongside Dock Road.

I've no idea what additional electrification or shunting arrangements Ineos and Forth Ports are considering, if any.

That's exactly where I thought the switchover could be. The passenger station could be on an Alloa-style siding and that's where the 88 would drop its pan and trundle along at shunt speeds. Electrifying freight yards where the top of the train needs to be accessed to transfer cargo is going to be a faff. Possible, yes, with the sorts of retractable conductor bars that are used at some new depots, but that's going to be much more expensive than the cost of adding a small last-mile diesel engine to the locomotive. The amount of fuel used when shunting would be microscopic and the reduced speed wouldn't matter either. What would not be allowed would be for a last mile diesel engine to shunt the train off the main line, blocking the route for longer than would be the case if it still had electric power.

By the way, have there been any considerations of adding an Edinburgh-facing chord to the branch line? It looks like it could be feasible, and it would make it much easier to run freight from the ECML as well as possibly being used for passenger services in future.

 

[jimm]

When will it be done?
The Electrification RUS - even at the height of NR's electrification mania - did not propose that as a scheme with a significant chance of progressing any time soon.
HS2 will rip the heart out of Chiltern's attempt to grow a London-Birmingham intercity market and return Chiltern to its late 20th Century role as a relatively low traffic commuter railway.

Why would it be wired any time soon? Chiltern's diesel fleet has plenty of life left in it, so it was always going to be a longer-term electrificaion prospect. But if wires go up from Oxford to the West Midlands and the Snow Hill lines around Birmingham are wired to release a lot of long-life Class 172s dmus to areas with remote prospects of wiring, then doing Banbury-Marylebone makes plenty of sense if aligned with replacing by then fairly elderly dmus.

Neither is going to happen in the near future.
Red Diesel is just too cheap.

But might not be should more of the Middle East get sucked into conflict.

Which is why they have determined to obtain pure diesel intercity trains?

Which will only have a limited lifespan in Scotland, even after modernisation, presumably with the intention of electrifying to the likes of Perth, Dundee and Aberdeen over the interim period.

The price of oil was nearly double what it is now - and diesel prices have also decreases relative to feedstocks since then thanks to the rise of the diesel car converting diesel into the dominant motor fuel product.

Well let's see if that remains the case once the EU crackdown on particulates and NO2 emissions gathers pace. Change the tax rules and the rise of diesel could be reversed rapidly. The UK Supreme Court ruled in April that we are breaching air quality directives pretty much across the board and there is little doubt that is down to using diesel.

I found it buried in Treasury guidance years ago - and this is actually a low rate of return for commercial purposes. EDF are demanding 9% from Hinkley Point C.

You really shouldn't be trying to use the finances of nuclear power projects as an example of anything. They bear no relation to the real world.

That blip was produced by an entirely different set of circumstances to the current slump - what we have is a structural change in the oil market and disintegration of OPEC.
This is not caused by some sort of financial crisis in Asia (although that is now happening as well).

Funny, because I seem to remember reading all about how there was structural change in the oil market when the price went north of 100 dollars a barrel and that the days of cheap oil were over forever...

Just demonstrates that not all projects have magical explosive growth in demand just because this is Britain and we hate trains and bias the calculations or whatever.

No, it just demonstrates that Sinfin was an entirely unrepresentative experiment with very limited potential benefits and is therefore en entirely spurious 'example', which is probably why you used it in the first place.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

That's exactly where I thought the switchover could be. The passenger station could be on an Alloa-style siding and that's where the 88 would drop its pan and trundle along at shunt speeds. Electrifying freight yards where the top of the train needs to be accessed to transfer cargo is going to be a faff. Possible, yes, with the sorts of retractable conductor bars that are used at some new depots, but that's going to be much more expensive than the cost of adding a small last-mile diesel engine to the locomotive. The amount of fuel used when shunting would be microscopic and the reduced speed wouldn't matter either. What would not be allowed would be for a last mile diesel engine to shunt the train off the main line, blocking the route for longer than would be the case if it still had electric power.

By the way, have there been any considerations of adding an Edinburgh-facing chord to the branch line? It looks like it could be feasible, and it would make it much easier to run freight from the ECML as well as possibly being used for passenger services in future.

Yes, improved access from both directions is in the Strategic Transport Projects Review and is supposed to be being actioned by Network Rail, but it's gone rather quiet.

There has been work at Fouldubs Jn but they're keen to remove the section of single track, and provide a curve to allow access from the east.

 

[po8crg]

The northern extremities of the XC network either are already electrified or are under the control of Transport Scotland, who really want to have electric InterCity services to Aberdeen from the Central Belt.

Which is why they have determined to obtain pure diesel intercity trains?

Which is why they have taken on older diesel intercity trains rather than new ones, so they can be replaced with pure EMUs when electrification is completed.

If they were buying new diesel trains rather than than taking on the HSTs, that would indicate an intent not to electrify in the short-term, but selecting trains that won't have more than 20 years of life left shows that this is a short-term stopgap.

I do think that a chunk of this conversation is at cross-purposes about timescales. I'd say short-term in rail infrastructure planning is anything within the next 20 years, medium term is 20-50 and long-term is beyond that.

Anything that's running non-IIIB diesels will need their rolling stock replacing in the short or medium term, and planning should intend to either electrify as stock comes up for replacement or to defer electrification beyond 2060. I suspect that Network Rail wants to electrify most of the network as stock needs replacing.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Which is why they have taken on older diesel intercity trains rather than new ones, so they can be replaced with pure EMUs when electrification is completed.

If they were buying new diesel trains rather than than taking on the HSTs, that would indicate an intent not to electrify in the short-term, but selecting trains that won't have more than 20 years of life left shows that this is a short-term stopgap.

I do think that a chunk of this conversation is at cross-purposes about timescales. I'd say short-term in rail infrastructure planning is anything within the next 20 years, medium term is 20-50 and long-term is beyond that.

Anything that's running non-IIIB diesels will need their rolling stock replacing in the short or medium term, and planning should intend to either electrify as stock comes up for replacement or to defer electrification beyond 2060. I suspect that Network Rail wants to electrify most of the network as stock needs replacing.

Which then means the decision is whether to electrify routes with modern(-ish) diesels which can then be cascaded (Chiltern, Snow Hill, Waterloo-Exeter, TPE North, XC NE-SW), or routes with diesel stock that will itself need replacing (Leeds/Manchester suburban). I'm no expert but I'd expect the former to have the better business case, despite the fact that I'd prefer the latter.

 

[455driver]

According to the latest waste of paper from the FGW propaganda department, FGW would like to enter talks with the DaFT, Hitachi and the trains owner to see if its possible to fit a proper buffet to the AT300s instead of providing the at seat service!

its in front of me in black and (quite expensive) white!

 

[ainsworth74]

Well of course it flaming is the ruddy things have been designed to accommodate everything from a just a trolley to full on restaurant car and combinations of everything in between!

Whatever FGW management have been smoking I need to get my hands on 'cause clearly they've got the good stuff...

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Which then means the decision is whether to electrify routes with modern(-ish) diesels which can then be cascaded (Chiltern, Snow Hill, Waterloo-Exeter, TPE North, XC NE-SW), or routes with diesel stock that will itself need replacing (Leeds/Manchester suburban). I'm no expert but I'd expect the former to have the better business case, despite the fact that I'd prefer the latter.

It's much more complicated than just worrying about rolling stock - there's a number of routes which could be electrified and would allow the cascade of all of their diesel units, but will never bring in sufficient passenger numbers to justify the expenditure without other factors being taken into account.

The decision to electrify is a complex one - the Rail North future electrification strategy document is a good starting point to understand how decisions are made, and when it appears, the updated Network Rail electrification RUS will explain more about where we are currently.

Rolling stock is one piece of the puzzle, but the analysis will take into account the timetables and diagramming on the route, determine energy usage, what level of additional capacity can be provided through electric rolling stock being provided, what level of additional passenger demand might be expected from electrification, what diversionary route options are opened up, what new journey options might be opened up and so on.

 

[RobShipway]

It's much more complicated than just worrying about rolling stock - there's a number of routes which could be electrified and would allow the cascade of all of their diesel units, but will never bring in sufficient passenger numbers to justify the expenditure without other factors being taken into account.

The decision to electrify is a complex one - the Rail North future electrification strategy document is a good starting point to understand how decisions are made, and when it appears, the updated Network Rail electrification RUS will explain more about where we are currently.

Rolling stock is one piece of the puzzle, but the analysis will take into account the timetables and diagramming on the route, determine energy usage, what level of additional capacity can be provided through electric rolling stock being provided, what level of additional passenger demand might be expected from electrification, what diversionary route options are opened up, what new journey options might be opened up and so on.

I agree with what you have said and state that rolling stock is the easy part of any projects like this, but the plans for the Infrastructure normally take fruit 3 plus years before the rolling stock is even thought about.

 

[IanXC]

Project Manager (Class 802)

https://hitachi.taleo.net/careersection/2m/jobdetail.ftl?job=30369

A loose bit of information suggests that these will be Class 802. Hitachi have a small number of job adverts for their 'Class 802' project - presumably they would not start recruitment for these kinds of roles before obtaining an order, and the South West AT300 and HT order are the (I think) the only high speed order without a class assigned?

 

[MidlandMainlie]

https://hitachi.taleo.net/careersection/2m/jobdetail.ftl?job=30369

A loose bit of information suggests that these will be Class 802. Hitachi have a small number of job adverts for their 'Class 802' project - presumably they would not start recruitment for these kinds of roles before obtaining an order, and the South West AT300 and HT order are the (I think) the only high speed order without a class assigned?

Seems logical, pity the class 800's are the bi-modes and the 801's are electric. If it was the other way round the 800's should have been the electric sets, the 801's the first generation bi-modes for GW and East Coast and the 802's the second generation bi-modes for WoE services.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

What differences are there likely to be between the 800s and 802s?

 

[Domh245]

Isn't it mainly going to be down to how much power the engines are rated for. The 802s will be higher rated - more power = different acceleration = different timetabling profiles

Or at least, that is what I thought!

 

[swt_passenger]

Isn't it mainly going to be down to how much power the engines are rated for. The 802s will be higher rated - more power = different acceleration = different timetabling profiles

Or at least, that is what I thought!

It certainly was when discussed at length 5 or 6 pages back, but I see no point in repeating it all again...

 

[D365]

What differences are there likely to be between the 800s and 802s?

On the Class 802, power output on diesel is at full engine rating, and fuel tanks are larger.

 

[WatcherZero]

Just been announced the AT300 wont be built in Japan as originally intended but at the newly acquired AnsaldoBreda facilities in Italy.

 

[swt_passenger]

Built or assembled? I thought all the initial Newton Aycliffe 'building' was criticised as assembly of kits?

So maybe there's capacity for kits of parts or bodies to be sent from Japan?

 

[WatcherZero]

Bodyshells made in Japan as its the only facility equipped with the friction stir welding tools but over 60% of the components by value were made in Britain anyway. The Pistoia site is equipped to manufacture Aluminium body shells so indeed is quite possible they could be built there with a little extra equipment as Hitachi transition product lines from Ansaldo to Hitachi products.

I understand GWR and Eversholt Rail have toured the Italian plant.

 

[AlexNL]

So did NS and DSB, the Italians were good at putting up a show. Look at how that turned out...

Hopefully this time it'll go better, once Japanese manufacturing methods and quality control get embedded into the ways of working at the former AnsaldoBreda factories.

What is interesting: the press statement by Hitachi very clearly states that the work has been granted to Hitachi Rail Italy, and the CEO of HRI has also left a comment. Does this mean that AnsaldoBreda is still its own company, standing besides Hitachi Rail Europe?

 

[Mikey C]

Wouldn't it be easier to build the 802s alongside the 800/801s in Newton Aycliffe, and shift the AT200 to Italy instead?
Effectively the SET trains for the UK will now be assembled in 3 countries!

 

[WatcherZero]

What is interesting: the press statement by Hitachi very clearly states that the work has been granted to Hitachi Rail Italy, and the CEO of HRI has also left a comment. Does this mean that AnsaldoBreda is still its own company, standing besides Hitachi Rail Europe?

Different divisions under A UK based HQ with each division having board representation.

A lot of Japanese companies operate under an internal market structure where the different workshops bid against each other to fulfill contracts the corporation has won, e.g they have a contract to supply 150 units, workshop A says they can produce 10 units at £9 a unit while workshop B says they can supply 1000 at £10 a unit while C says they can supply 200 at £11. So to fulfill the contract they produce using a mixture of A and B.

In Hitachi Europe case I understand that they are going to have each division identify opportunties and compete individually but the HQ board signs off the bids selecting the best one to put forward if more than one division are interested in bidding.

 

[The Ham]

After yesterday's experience on a GWR HST having to stand between Reading and Tiverton and people still having to stand as they got on at Exeter, the AT300's can't come soon enough. Especially if they provide a more frequent service as there was a 2 hour gap in services between Reading and Exeter prior to that service.

Given how busy the service was a short train (I.e. 5 coaches) would have still been fine west of Plymouth.

 

[455driver]

After yesterday's experience on a GWR HST having to stand between Reading and Tiverton and people still having to stand as they got on at Exeter, the AT300's can't come soon enough. Especially if they provide a more frequent service as there was a 2 hour gap in services between Reading and Exeter prior to that service.

Given how busy the service was a short train (I.e. 5 coaches) would have still been fine west of Plymouth.

Yeah Christmas Eve is such an obvious time to check passenger loadings, it isn't like thousands of extra passengers try and travel in addition to the normal commuters is it! :roll:

 

[VP185]

Yeah Christmas Eve is such an obvious time to check passenger loadings, it isn't like thousands of extra passengers try and travel in addition to the normal commuters is it! :roll:

We choose to avoid moving the parents down outside of what I thought was the busiest times. We left Paddington on the 1703, it left Paddington half empty. By Pewsey we were virtually the only people in the coach! A good call. Sometimes you just need to use a bit of common sense.

 

[The Ham]

Yeah Christmas Eve is such an obvious time to check passenger loadings, it isn't like thousands of extra passengers try and travel in addition to the normal commuters is it! :roll:

Yes, Christmas eve is busier than normal. However so would any school holiday period, so it's not like it's a very rare event on those services. Should we not consider passenger loadings at busy times (which happen semi regularly) and only have a system that can only cope with relatively normal loadings.

Although, however you look at it my observation about the suitability of 5 coach units west of Plymouth (when the train was very busy to Exeter) shows the validity of doing so and that 9 coach trains wouldn't be required all the time (as some have suggested).

 

[jimm]

Since the thread about the option for 30 more AT300s on top of the original order is closed, this one looks the best place to post the following.

In a footnote to Roger Ford's Control Period 5 rolling stock orders table in the April issue of Modern Railways, listed under provisional orders and mentioned briefly in the accompanying article, is that GWR is actively looking at acquiring nine more 5-car AT300s to provide, as Mr Ford puts it "additional flexibility for North Cotswold and Bedwyn services".

Given that the initial order of AT300s was also expected to provide some assistance in weekday peaks on the Cotswold Line, then if this order goes through much of the route's regular service looks likely to be AT300-operated.

Certainly the extra power won't hurt climbing through the Malverns and up Chipping Campden bank and such an order would also offer a pool of full power and higher fuel capacity sets to work summer Saturday extras to the West Country, with 800s covering for them in the Cotswolds.