Arriva Sapphire 280 Future

[MK Tom]

Disclaimer: The is a rumour I have been told. I have no evidence of it and am not stating that any of it is happening, has happened or is likely to happen.

There's a rumour flying around at the moment that Arriva haven't made as much on the Sapphire 280 as they'd hoped to. My sources. such as they are. say that there is now a plan to re-launch Sapphire elsewhere in Shires (possibly Stevenage) with the current Enviro 400 and replace the 280 in the short term with DAF SB220 Plaxton Prestiges (exempted temporarily from the Oxford LEZ) and in the long-term with new-build Optare Tempos. I've asked Arriva and the most that they've told me is that the 280 will remain Sapphire. They didn't comment about single deckers. So my question there is, does anyone know anything about this?

If this does happen, would it not provide a really obvious opportunity for Stagecoach to come in, launch a Gold version of the route with a lower frequency, faster journey time and so on, attract new custom and knock Arriva off the route? Stagecoach have a history of succeeding in their investments where other operators don't. I'd be interested to know people's comments about that possibility.

 

[gordonthemoron]

Isn't Aylesbury a bit away from Stagecoach territory?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Disclaimer: The is a rumour I have been told. I have no evidence of it and am not stating that any of it is happening, has happened or is likely to happen.

There's a rumour flying around at the moment that Arriva haven't made as much on the Sapphire 280 as they'd hoped to. My sources. such as they are. say that there is now a plan to re-launch Sapphire elsewhere in Shires (possibly Stevenage) with the current Enviro 400 and replace the 280 in the short term with DAF SB220 Plaxton Prestiges (exempted temporarily from the Oxford LEZ) and in the long-term with new-build Optare Tempos. I've asked Arriva and the most that they've told me is that the 280 will remain Sapphire. They didn't comment about single deckers. So my question there is, does anyone know anything about this?

If this does happen, would it not provide a really obvious opportunity for Stagecoach to come in, launch a Gold version of the route with a lower frequency, faster journey time and so on, attract new custom and knock Arriva off the route? Stagecoach have a history of succeeding in their investments where other operators don't. I'd be interested to know people's comments about that possibility.

Can you please answer the following questions so we can work out the voracity of this?

• Where has this rumour come from? Please provide details of your sources
• In what way are Prestiges exempt from the LEZ?
• If Sapphire hasn't been successful, then why are they contemplating new vehicles for the 280?
• Why would Gold succeed when Sapphire (which is the same thing) doesn't?

 

[MK Tom]

• Where has this rumour come from? Please provide details of your sources
• In what way are Prestiges exempt from the LEZ?
• If Sapphire hasn't been successful, then why are they contemplating new vehicles for the 280?
• Why would Gold succeed when Sapphire (which is the same thing) doesn't?

• Friends I have who have connections inside Arriva. Hopefully I made clear that this is a rumour and a rumour only at this stage. One of them did say there'd be a test with an SB220 soon - if that happens it would serve as proof to me. Until then I'm treating it as a rumour only and my main reason for posting it here was to hunt for more information.
• A temporary deal with Oxford City Council, apparently.
• Eight Tempos is what the rather detailed rumour says. Could be augmented with vehicles from other depots, could indicate a timetable reduction. Single-deck vehicles are cheaper to operate than double deck ones. PURE SPECULATION.
• Stagecoach in my experience are more successful at winning customers than Arriva. Also a 280 run at a half hourly frequency would probably be more profitable than one run three times an hour, and the 280's big disadvantage is its arduous, slow route (common practise for Arriva, look at the 150 for an extreme example).

Hopefully I don't need to repeat my original disclaimer. This is something unconfirmed I've been told by a few sources - I'm hoping someone on here may have more info that can confirm or refute.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Isn't Aylesbury a bit away from Stagecoach territory?

Not terribly really. Oxford/Bicester/Buckingham/MK all close. They used to run to Leighton Buzzard. It just seems like an easy catch for them in my view, operated perhaps as an S route out of Oxford depot.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

• Friends I have who have connections inside Arriva. Hopefully I made clear that this is a rumour and a rumour only at this stage. One of them did say there'd be a test with an SB220 soon - if that happens it would serve as proof to me. Until then I'm treating it as a rumour only and my main reason for posting it here was to hunt for more information.
• A temporary deal with Oxford City Council, apparently.
• Eight Tempos is what the rather detailed rumour says. Could be augmented with vehicles from other depots, could indicate a timetable reduction. Single-deck vehicles are cheaper to operate than double deck ones. PURE SPECULATION.
• Stagecoach in my experience are more successful at winning customers than Arriva. Also a 280 run at a half hourly frequency would probably be more profitable than one run three times an hour, and the 280's big disadvantage is its arduous, slow route (common practise for Arriva, look at the 150 for an extreme example).

Hopefully I don't need to repeat my original disclaimer. This is something unconfirmed I've been told by a few sources - I'm hoping someone on here may have more info that can confirm or refute.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Not terribly really. Oxford/Bicester/Buckingham/MK all close. They used to run to Leighton Buzzard. It just seems like an easy catch for them in my view, operated perhaps as an S route out of Oxford depot.

Appreciate that you've put a disclaimer but being blunt, this looks like a right load of unsubstantiated rubbish. If I'm wrong and all this comes to pass, then fair enough, I'll put my hand up. However, let's look at this....

• Someone who has friends who know people in Arriva....hardly from the horse's mouth
• Oxford City Council will allow Arriva to remove euro IV vehicles in favour of some knackered 15 year old single deckers? Really?
• The 280 isn't doing well enough for the current 5 year old deckers but can sustain brand new single deckers - note that those would be Euro 6 and so be worse on fuel than euro 5 and that plus NBV will be more expensive so operating costs will be worse
• Optare Tempo SRs - a new type that Arriva don't run and in fact, the only old Tempos they have are in Yorkshire
• Potential frequency reduction and a conversion to single deckers - is it really doing that bad?
• The service was able to justify new deckers in 1998 and 2008 but now it's been refurbished and relaunched, now it can't sustain that last batch
• It's only 5 months into the project - does anyone think they'll pull it after 5 months?

What is of public record is that they're experiencing some reliability issues with the Enviros? Also, they do need to do some work on them to make them LEZ compliant - something that has upset the Aylesbury manager apparently.

As I say, if all that comes to pass, I'll cheerfully admit I'm wrong and donate £20 to charity. However, none of it makes sense.

 

[gordonthemoron]

TBF Arriva have a lot of knackered 15 year old single deckers which can be seen in MK on a daily basis, some even catch fire

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

TBF Arriva have a lot of knackered 15 year old single deckers which can be seen in MK on a daily basis, some even catch fire

True, but MK doesn't have a low emission zone.

I struggle to imagine the conversation to Oxford City Council...."hello, is that the council. Arriva here. You know those double deckers that we've operated for a good few years? Well, we've just refurbished them yet we're not making the money on the route that we were. Is it ok if we send some 15 year old Euro 2 machines for a few months? And whilst we can't afford to run 58 plate deckers, we will be getting some new single deckers though"......

 

[ECML180]

But I'd imagine if the council sees (or is made to see) the options as:
a) The route continuing with the current vehicles in the next weeks/months and then being withdrawn
or
b) Allowing a trial of older single deckers for a short period, giving a greater chance of the route continuing

Then surely it would appreciate the importance of the route and would allow the trail in order to keep it going. It's no real cost to the council and should bring benefits.

(my turn for a disclaimer I'm no local and only really know much by reading an article on the sapphire buses recently)

 

[MK Tom]

Appreciate that you've put a disclaimer but being blunt, this looks like a right load of unsubstantiated rubbish. If I'm wrong and all this comes to pass, then fair enough, I'll put my hand up. However, let's look at this....

• Someone who has friends who know people in Arriva....hardly from the horse's mouth
• Oxford City Council will allow Arriva to remove euro IV vehicles in favour of some knackered 15 year old single deckers? Really?
• The 280 isn't doing well enough for the current 5 year old deckers but can sustain brand new single deckers - note that those would be Euro 6 and so be worse on fuel than euro 5 and that plus NBV will be more expensive so operating costs will be worse
• Optare Tempo SRs - a new type that Arriva don't run and in fact, the only old Tempos they have are in Yorkshire
• Potential frequency reduction and a conversion to single deckers - is it really doing that bad?
• The service was able to justify new deckers in 1998 and 2008 but now it's been refurbished and relaunched, now it can't sustain that last batch
• It's only 5 months into the project - does anyone think they'll pull it after 5 months?

What is of public record is that they're experiencing some reliability issues with the Enviros? Also, they do need to do some work on them to make them LEZ compliant - something that has upset the Aylesbury manager apparently.

As I say, if all that comes to pass, I'll cheerfully admit I'm wrong and donate £20 to charity. However, none of it makes sense.

Most of these points I already made to the people who told me this. I sort of agree with you - the only thing is some of these people have been right in the past. If it's wrong then this has been some fun speculation - if it's right I'm sure we'll all eat our shorts because Arriva will have 100% lost the plot.

I don't ride the 280 often enough to gauge its usage but I've known it usually be fairly empty at the Aylesbury end and fairly busy on the Oxford end.

Oh one part of the rumour I missed out was a number of SB220s coming to Aylesbury from other depots. They currently only have two, as a couple have died or torched themselves lately.

 

[spuddie]

Interestingly and may be connected but I heard a rumour the other day (and like the original poster I must state this is only a rumour) from a Stevenage driver that there was the possibility of them getting some double deckers again within the next 6 months after not having any for in Stevenage for years. My thoughts were this was more likely to be for town services that get over crowded rather than anything potentially Sapphire but the 300/301 could be a possibility for Sapphire upgrading?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Most of these points I already made to the people who told me this. I sort of agree with you - the only thing is some of these people have been right in the past.

Your past record is not a strong point....

1st Nov 2012 - "Recently had multiple reliable sources saying Uno to take over Northampton's route 4/4A at next week's announcement. I am just relaying what I've been told though and that should not be taken as fact"

9th Nov 2012 - "I anticipate is an expanded Stagecoach presence in MK and Arriva giving up more of their operations in the Bucks area, pumping all of their resources into a small number of key routes."

21st Nov 2012 - "12 is a very lightly used service and diverting the 15 isn't feasible given Camp Hill's location. I predict it becoming a council contract and passing to Country Lion or Meridian."

I don't see any mileage in this story. After all, it's only 5 months it being ripped yet despite a year ago being regarded as having the potential to develop. Now, it's a steaming crock and worthy of elderly single decks.....apart from some brand new, non standard vehicles.

Oh, and the Sapphire concept despite being damaged by this will then reappear at Stevenage?

From my sources, there have been some problems but they'll look for everything to settle down and review after 12 months operation.

 

[MK Tom]

The last two were my own guesses and the first was from completely different sources. AND in this case I've clearly said that I'm repeating the rumours of others. I would NEVER make this prediction myself. It's wild and mental and if Arriva do it I'll be amazed. Anyway, the Uno one was thought by many and Uno are now the sole operator on one part of the 4 route. Stagecoach are expanding in MK with new routes 83 and 52. Arriva have cut their routes in Bucks further. The 12 and 15 are operated at a lower frequency and may chance in the upcoming services review.

This is not my prediction. This is a rumour I've been given by others that I found hard to believe and challenged them about at the time. I'd appreciate it if you took back your comments implying that it was my prediction.

I don't see any mileage in this story. After all, it's only 5 months it being ripped yet despite a year ago being regarded as having the potential to develop. Now, it's a steaming crock and worthy of elderly single decks.....apart from some brand new, non standard vehicles.

Oh, and the Sapphire concept despite being damaged by this will then reappear at Stevenage?

From my sources, there have been some problems but they'll look for everything to settle down and review after 12 months operation.

I agree with all of this, and every comment you've made about it. I wouldn't believe this in a million years if it hadn't come from people who've been right before. As it is I have no idea what to think, hence starting this thread.

 

[gordonthemoron]

what is service 52? 83 only appears to be a mon-fri one return trip college service which is hardly earth shattering

 

[MK Tom]

what is service 52? 83 only appears to be a mon-fri one return trip college service which is hardly earth shattering

Yeah true. The 52 starts in January running Bedford-Wooton-Cranfield-Salford-CMK-Hospital. The leg to the hospital is particularly interesting. Stagecoach also now have an (inaccurate) MK services map on their website, and the X7 now has an extra evening Northampton-MK journey. At the risk of being quoted in less time than I'm actually talking, I do predict further Stagecoach presence increase in MK in the future. But that's just my guess like the second two of Wazoo's examples were.

Here is the services map - http://www.stagecoachbus.com/uploads/mk-web.pdf. The circular route of the 99 is complete fiction and there are several other errors. Apparently they'll correct them when the new map is done with the 52 on it.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The last two were my own guesses and the first was from completely different sources. AND in this case I've clearly said that I'm repeating the rumours of others. I would NEVER make this prediction myself. It's wild and mental and if Arriva do it I'll be amazed. Anyway, the Uno one was thought by many and Uno are now the sole operator on one part of the 4 route. Stagecoach are expanding in MK with new routes 83 and 52. Arriva have cut their routes in Bucks further. The 12 and 15 are operated at a lower frequency and may chance in the upcoming services review.

This is not my prediction. This is a rumour I've been given by others that I found hard to believe and challenged them about at the time. I'd appreciate it if you took back your comments implying that it was my prediction.

I'm sorry but won't be taking anything back.

Firstly, repeating rumours is not a defence - if you repeat a libel, then you can't say "I never started it, I just repeated it". Similarly, saying "lots of other people said it" means nothing and doesn't do anything for your credibility. The more people who then "hear" the same rumour doesn't add to its accuracy, and that's what happened to First Northampton. They may be "different sources" now but how are they any more accurate than other incorrect ones then?

I do accept that Stagecoach have extended one service, once an hour to MK so by definition it has expanded, but that sort of pace is rather glacial. However, have Arriva retreated in Bucks markedly over the last year to let Stagecoach in? Not really

As for the 12 in Northampton. You accept it "may change" because we know that there is a network review planned whereas you definitively predicted that it would be council supported 12 months ago. That may be an opinion but how long before that is then "fact"?

I appreciate that this is speculation but sometimes, just step back a bit and analyse the situation properly. If you don't believe, then perhaps back your own judgement?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

But I'd imagine if the council sees (or is made to see) the options as:
a) The route continuing with the current vehicles in the next weeks/months and then being withdrawn
or
b) Allowing a trial of older single deckers for a short period, giving a greater chance of the route continuing

Then surely it would appreciate the importance of the route and would allow the trail in order to keep it going. It's no real cost to the council and should bring benefits.

(my turn for a disclaimer I'm no local and only really know much by reading an article on the sapphire buses recently)[/QUOTE}

It's a long standing route, that had new deckers in 1998 and again in 2008. They have been refurbished. Despite it being a long route serving a number of smaller towns en route, it runs at a 20 min frequency during the day.

Do you think it's getting withdrawn or under threat? And if so, would new single decks be on order? If it was regarded as worthy for Sapphire conversion a year ago, why is it now no longer viable with the same fleet now after a refurb?

 

[Robertj21a]

It may be me but this sounds like just another load of rubbish, probably from a depot cleaner who wants to appear 'important'.

Robert

 

[MK Tom]

Wazoo, yeah I take your point about taking my own judgement. My reason for posting it here was to get other's views and more evidence, which I have, and it's backed my gut feeling against the rumour. It wasn't to propagate the rumour, but obviously that is a side-effect.

As an aside, your quote of ECML180 hasn't come out quite right for some reason.

My prediction about Stagecoach expanding was an anticipation of an eventual move by them. They have far bigger priorities. Arriva have downscaled in Bucks further, and as you say that's nothing to do with Stagecoach. If SC ever do come into MK properly, I strongly believe Arriva won't stand a chance unless they really try, which isn't really their thing.

It may be me but this sounds like just another load of rubbish, probably from a depot cleaner who wants to appear 'important'.

Robert

Quite possibly.

 

[ECML180]

It's a long standing route, that had new deckers in 1998 and again in 2008. They have been refurbished. Despite it being a long route serving a number of smaller towns en route, it runs at a 20 min frequency during the day.

Do you think it's getting withdrawn or under threat? And if so, would new single decks be on order? If it was regarded as worthy for Sapphire conversion a year ago, why is it now no longer viable with the same fleet now after a refurb?

It doesn't matter what I think, I don't really know much about the situation. What matters is what the council thinks with regards to them waiving LEZ rules. If they think the route is in danger of being cut or lost (whether they are right or wrong) and relaxing the rules would save it then it seems a reasonable choice to me. I don't know about you but a suggestion it is reducing from double deckers to single deckers is a cut in my view.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It doesn't matter what I think, I don't really know much about the situation. What matters is what the council thinks with regards to them waiving LEZ rules. If they think the route is in danger of being cut or lost (whether they are right or wrong) and relaxing the rules would save it then it seems a reasonable choice to me. I don't know about you but a suggestion it is reducing from double deckers to single deckers is a cut in my view.

Suggest you read the rules on the LEZ. Infrequent services are excluded but not regular ones but it's academic. I reckon my £20 is safe!

 

[ECML180]

Suggest you read the rules on the LEZ. Infrequent services are excluded but not regular ones but it's academic. I reckon my £20 is safe!

Suggest you read my posts in this thread. If we consider this frequent then a temporary exclusion makes sense. If not then the 'rumour' is incorrect as it does not need an exclusion then it's not a problem and the operator may do as they see fit.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Suggest you read my posts in this thread. If we consider this frequent then a temporary exclusion makes sense. If not then the 'rumour' is incorrect as it does not need an exclusion then it's not a problem and the operator may do as they see fit.

If you read about the LEZ, then you'd appreciate that the exclusions do not allow for commercial fudges as you envisage. Also, the LEZ is actually underpinned by a TRC as specified by the Traffic Commissioner. Whilst the city council asked for the LEZ and is responsible for maintaining the list of compliant vehicles, they cannot waive the TRC as you suggest.

 

[mbonwick]

I believe the deadline for applications for exemptions to the Oxford LEZ (beyond the agreed usage of Euro 4 vehicles until Dec 2014) has long been and gone. So no chance of Arriva getting Prestiges put on there.

 

[ECML180]

If you read about the LEZ, then you'd appreciate that the exclusions do not allow for commercial fudges as you envisage. Also, the LEZ is actually underpinned by a TRC as specified by the Traffic Commissioner. Whilst the city council asked for the LEZ and is responsible for maintaining the list of compliant vehicles, they cannot waive the TRC as you suggest.

Again, I did not suggest this. The rumour stated by the OP did.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Again, I did not suggest this. The rumour stated by the OP did.

You said " If they think the route is in danger of being cut or lost (whether they are right or wrong) and relaxing the rules would save it then it seems a reasonable choice to me. "

However, I was trying to point you in the direction that it isn't a choice they can actually take. That's another reason why this rumour doesn't hold water.

 

[MK Tom]

I've been told 3274 V274HBH was tested on the 280 today, but I'm not believing it until I see a picture or a lot more people say so.

 

[glennds999]

I appreciate this is just a 'rumour' but...

Surely though, IF these buses were to transfer off the 280 and go to Stevenage, surely it couldn't upgrade the 300/1 as the service requires just under 20 vehicles (around 16-8) to maintain the half hourly, quarter-hourly combined, frequency. Maybe the 100/101/102 services could be contenders.

After all of the money spent on marketing and refurbishing and branding the interior of the vehicles, surely it does not make sense to abandon the 280 - wouldn't a better alternative be to reduce frequency to half hourly (though this does go against Sapphire 'rules'), but would be better than removing Sapphire status.

And lastly, Optare Tempo! Standard choice for Arriva is VDL or Volvo chassis with Wright body, why would they suddenly go against company standard? And wouldn't it make sense, instead of introducing older buses were to be replaced, for the Enviro's to stay on until the new buses arrive. That then gives them extra time just to be sure - Sapphire is meant to grow the service -it's rather difficult to tell after 5 months!

Glenn

 

[MCR247]

Sounds like a load of rubbish to me, I mean who I their right mind would make an order for Tempo SRs?!

 

[MK Tom]

As I said, Arriva told me point blank that the route will retain Sapphire status when I wrote to them about this (although they did in September 2009 tell me that they'd retain the MK Metro brand long-term so my trust isn't exactly absolute). However they didn't answer about the possible conversion of the route to single deckers.

 

[glennds999]

Yes, well I believe that we can trust Arriva on that Tom - it would be stupid, as I said above, to remove the 280 of its Sapphire status. On top of what I said above, that just shows people that they are not committed, one of the whole aims of the Sapphire project.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

As I said, Arriva told me point blank that the route will retain Sapphire status when I wrote to them about this (although they did in September 2009 tell me that they'd retain the MK Metro brand long-term so my trust isn't exactly absolute). However they didn't answer about the possible conversion of the route to single deckers.

However, your trust in your sources is absolute?

Let's be honest about this. None of this seems to stack up. Look at the various bits of information

• Loss of Sapphire status - been denied by Arriva and goes against what has been said in the press. They have committed to review performance in Jan 2014 on the concept but that the project's additional costs are funded centrally and are based on an 18 month duration
• Removal of E400s - these were the regular vehicles on the service so why would they be removed after refurbishment
• Temporary use of 1999 vintage Prestiges - the city council cannot vary the terms of the order (that's the TC's job) and indeed, every other operator would be up in arms having got their house in order. However, IF new vehicles were due then why not leave the enviros that are compliant in place until the new vehicles are due OR draft other compliant single deckers in place
• Ordering Optare Tempo SRs - why would Arriva order these when they have none in service (and even the older ones are congregated in Yorkshire) when most recent arrivals have been Wright Pulsars

However, the most baffling bit of this is WHY would this happen? If it's because of finances then how can having brand new Euro 6 single deckers be cheaper than more efficient and older (with lower NBV)? Passenger figures - well that was what Sapphire is intended to address and five months is not long enough to establish the benefits and I doubt that there's been a collapse in patronage - also goes against their stated plan. Reliability of the enviros - the least outlandish suggestion but would anticipate having done the refurb and relaunch that they'd look to sort those out first.

I can't see any logic in this rumour, and for that reason, I'm out