Arriva Buses (including Greenline)

[TheGrandWazoo]

Do you think there's much to interest an investment group? I'm no expert but their remaining territories aren't wonderful overall, and a lot of investment would be required.

Buying a UK wide bus operation isn't exactly a 'desirable investment' in a post covid world with reduced ridership and inevitable ongoing reductions in state support.
As previous posters have said, I am sure that DB would want to sell as one large Job-Lot.
Could we see a large Venture Capital Investor group buy Arriva UK (with or without Rail) and then sell it on in smaller parcels - recovering its original purchase price and a making a profit?

Yet we've seen both Go Ahead and Stagecoach purchased in the last year or so. Despite the mismanagement (IMO) of Arriva UK Bus, there are still some decent businesses in Merseyside, West Yorkshire, East Midlands and London. Whilst new vehicle investment has been limited in recent years, the overall age profile isn't too bad at the moment. Of course, that's partly been facilitated by service reductions and retrenchment, but it does mean the investment required isn't quite as bad as feared though there's a sizeable 2012-4 intake that skews things (caused by the DDA deadline).

Removing the theoretical worth of the assets means they're taking a hit now but will make things more attractive to a prospective purchaser. Of course, a Private Equity Group could be interested; I Squared were sniffing around First Group last year and there's the potential that a PEG would come in and "flip" whichever businesses. However, then you're getting the crayons back out and colouring in bits of the UK map.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Abellio’s UK ventures went to a management buyout funded by private equity. Were I a betting man, that’s how I’d expect Arriva to eventually be disposed of.

Writing down the book value of the fleet helps with that too. Although some of that decision will inevitably be influenced by franchising in Manchester- should it come to Liverpool, the fleet won’t have much value if an operator loses franchising bids.

 

[MotCO]

Abellio’s UK ventures went to a management buyout funded by private equity. Were I a betting man, that’s how I’d expect Arriva to eventually be disposed of.

Writing down the book value of the fleet helps with that too. Although some of that decision will inevitably be influenced by franchising in Manchester- should it come to Liverpool, the fleet won’t have much value if an operator loses franchising bids.

Are most of Arriva's buses diesel? In which case, there probably is not a market for a large number of second hand diesel buses, given the move to EV. Small operators may take a handful, but there will be a lot left over, so writing their book value down may make sense.

The main assets left, presumably, are any owned garages. If the company is sold for less than the value of the buildings, then you can see an asset stripper buying the company, flogging the garages for houses, making a quick profit and closing the operations down.

 

[MasterSpenny]

Are most of Arriva's buses diesel? In which case, there probably is not a market for a large number of second hand diesel buses, given the move to EV. Small operators may take a handful, but there will be a lot left over, so writing their book value down may make sense.

The main assets left, presumably, are any owned garages. If the company is sold for less than the value of the buildings, then you can see an asset stripper buying the company, flogging the garages for houses, making a quick profit and closing the operations down.

Summing up your first paragraph:
Most of there buses do seem to be diesel, they get just electrics currently for their London operations as the requirements set by TfL, seemingly more recent non London batches are ADL Enviro200/400 MMCs, and Merseyside have gained the 10 E400 FCEVs. Electric buses for non London Arriva operators is something I have heard nothing of.

 

[RELL6L]

Arriva have recently filed their company accounts for Arriva Merseyside and Arriva North West for the year ending December 2021. These accounts should have been filed by September 2022, so they are nearly a year late filing their accounts. I always think it is quite telling on the state of a company's organisation and finances if they take so long to put a set of accounts together and get them audited. They managed to file accounts consistently on time until 4 years ago - but has gone downhill since then.

Still, they are more prompt than some of the other subsidiaries, Arriva Yorkshire and The Shires have not filed any accounts for 2021 yet.

The other odd thing about the Merseyside accounts is that they have written off the whole value of the bus fleet - all £48m of it (plus another £2m write off of property assets), turning what would have been a tidy £7m profit into a thumping loss. I can't really get my head around why they would do this..effectively saying there is no value to the bus fleet. Anyone got any ideas ?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Aug 2023 ==


With link to the Companies House for the accounts

ARRIVA MERSEYSIDE LIMITED overview - Find and update company information - GOV.UK

ARRIVA MERSEYSIDE LIMITED - Free company information from Companies House including registered office address, filing history, accounts, annual return, officers, charges, business activity

find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk

Responding to this and a number of the other posts, as an accountant, I am fairly surprised by this.

To debunk a couple of theories:
1) If there was finance outstanding on these vehicles - which there isn't (it would be in notes 17 & 18) - then writing down their value would have no effect on payments to leasing companies etc. The payments would be due whatever - can you imagine a leasing company saying - "Oh, I see you've written down these assets in your books - don't feel obliged to make the outstanding lease payments then". Er, no.
2) It doesn't affect tax payable. The tax deduction each for this type of asset is fixed by tax rules, you cannot decide how much tax deduction to get just by writing assets down faster or slower. It's usually 18% of their tax written down value, for example in year 1, buy something for £1,000 get an 18% deduction = £180, tax WDV then £820. Year 2 get 18% of £820 = £147.60, tax WDV £672.40. And so on until the assets are sold or scrapped. Writing them off like this does not affect tax.
3) If you were going to make a business look more profitable in later years by writing down the assets now, then you wouldn't do anything as blatant as this. Yes, the profit in future years will be higher, because there will be no depreciation charge on the assets now being written down. If you look at note 14 you will see that for the vehicles there was a depreciation charge of £7,592k before the big write-down. Next year, for these vehicles, that will be nil. So next year the business could well be more profitable. But no prospective purchaser is going to look at that profit and believe it to be a true underlying profit of the business - because the business needs vehicles and there will have to be a future charge for buying or leasing new vehicles in due course. A potential purchaser would make its own judgement of this charge anyway depending on how they would want to run the business.

What I find odd is that Arriva haven't written down the vehicles here (and in other subsidiaries) to open market value. There is a perfectly good established market in used PSVs, I am sure it would not be difficult to establish a good enough valuation of an x-year old B5LH, E400, Streetdeck etc, also the Pulsars - although Arriva dominates ownership of these nationally - and everything else. (Forget the hydrogen buses, they weren't around at 31.12.21 and anyway I don't think Arriva are ever intended to own them). If Arriva wanted to sell the whole fleet there would be buyers, plenty of operators with older fleets who would be glad to modernise. They might not get what they think fair value to be, but it would be a lot higher than zero. They have chosen not to do this on the basis that actually they aren't going to sell them, they are going to keep them to carry on in a business which appears to be losing a lot of money - and (more to the point) projected to carry on doing so. The accountants therefore say that the vehicles are worth nothing, as they are going to spend the rest of their useful lives in a business which will not generate cash.

In view of the late filing of these accounts - which is highly unusual for companies of this size - and the substantial adjustments, I can only assume that this was insisted upon by Pricewaterhouse Coopers, the auditors. They actually don't mention it, they 'qualify' the accounts (that's bad) solely regarding the number of employees, and draw attention (fairly bad) to the uncertainties regarding the business of the company and Arriva generally and consequent uncertainty as to its ability to continue in business given the level of losses. But I guess they were not prepared to sign off accounts without this adjustment being made. I note other subsidiaries, eg Arriva The Shires, still haven't filed yet - even later - one can only assume the same will be happening here.

 

[MotCO]

In view of the late filing of these accounts - which is highly unusual for companies of this size - and the substantial adjustments, I can only assume that this was insisted upon by Pricewaterhouse Coopers, the auditors. They actually don't mention it, they 'qualify' the accounts (that's bad) solely regarding the number of employees, and draw attention (fairly bad) to the uncertainties regarding the business of the company and Arriva generally and consequent uncertainty as to its ability to continue in business given the level of losses. But I guess they were not prepared to sign off accounts without this adjustment being made. I note other subsidiaries, eg Arriva The Shires, still haven't filed yet - even later - one can only assume the same will be happening here.

Maybe the delay was caused by on-going discussions between the auditors and Arriva to avoid qualification of accounts. Maybe, the auditors were questioning the going-concern aspect; by writing down the value of the buses, maybe the day-to-day operations will break-even and more likely to continue trading.

With regard to the tax implications. If a company makes a loss, can this be offset against future profits to reduce future tax liabilities? So, by taking a hit on the write-downs, will this aid future profitability due to reduced tax liabilities?

 

[RELL6L]

Maybe the delay was caused by on-going discussions between the auditors and Arriva to avoid qualification of accounts. Maybe, the auditors were questioning the going-concern aspect; by writing down the value of the buses, maybe the day-to-day operations will break-even and more likely to continue trading.

With regard to the tax implications. If a company makes a loss, can this be offset against future profits to reduce future tax liabilities? So, by taking a hit on the write-downs, will this aid future profitability due to reduced tax liabilities?

Yes, indeed the delay was very likely down to ongoing discussions between the auditors and Arriva including this adjustment and going concern.

Yes, if a company makes a loss this can be offset against future profits. But the point I made is that a write down such as this does not affect the tax position, it does not add to the loss for tax purposes.

 

[Richardr]

Re the qualification by the auditors, I've certainly not ever seen a set of accounts before where the auditors do not agree with the number of employees disclosed.

 

[pm2304877]

Abellio’s UK ventures went to a management buyout funded by private equity. Were I a betting man, that’s how I’d expect Arriva to eventually be disposed of.

Writing down the book value of the fleet helps with that too. Although some of that decision will inevitably be influenced by franchising in Manchester- should it come to Liverpool, the fleet won’t have much value if an operator loses franchising bids.

After Yellow Buses there must be NO management buy outs whatsoever. They are underfunded and they don't invest in modern buses (ref Glenvale in Merseyside which only bought mid life used buses which soon became problematic) . I'd rather Go Ahead buy out Merseyside plus Runcorn and Stagecoach bought North Wales, and Rotala or Mobico the Manchester ops . The North Wales ops need a large firm as the small timers simply wouldn't provide the higher frequency routes needed and too many small timers have gone belly up.

Arriva Northumbria could be a Stagecoach operation, although NE would be awkward because Go Ahead wouldn't be allowed and Stagecoach sold out to Arriva. Yorkshire could be a Go Ahead or Rotala prospect. Midlands and the southern companies could be a tough one, as London would be as Go Ahead wouldn't qualify. A return of First or Mobico maybe?. But please no MBOs!

 

[MasterSpenny]

Resturcturement of High Wycombe services from 3 September

Latest News - Arriva UK Bus

www.arrivabus.co.uk

From 3 September, High Wycombe’s bus network is getting transformed. We’re bringing you more buses, more often with our new, simpler routes that allow for seamless connectivity around the town.​

Explore our new network with this handy map. Take a peek here

Here’s all our upcoming changes. If you’ve any more questions for us, we’re always here to help. Please reach out to us using the details here.

Route 2
New route 2 connects High Wycombe to Cressex and Booker. You’ll see more buses, more often, with buses running up to every 15 minutes Monday to Friday, every 20 minutes Saturday and every 30 minutes on Sundays.

This route partially replaces routes 32/32A. Take me to new timetable

Route 3
New route 3 connects High Wycombe and Castlefield, up to every 15 minutes Monday to Saturday and every 30 minutes on Sundays.

This route partially replaces routes 33/33A. Take me to new timetable

Route 4
New route 4 will run between High Wycombe, Sands and Lane End up to every hour Monday to Saturday. We’re also adding an additional evening journey from High Wycombe to Lane End following feedback from our customers.

This route replaces route 48. Take me to new timetable

Routes 5/5A
New route 5 will run between High Wycombe, Wycombe Marsh, Wooburn Green and Bourne End. Buses will run up to every hour, Monday to Saturday daytimes.

Together, routes 5, 6 and 7 will run up to every 20 minutes between High Wycombe and Bourne End.

Route 5A operates through Wooburn Green and Flackwell Heath to serve Marlow Hill Schools on its way to High Wycombe, partially replacing route 36B. This service is available to everyone, offering a commuter journey into the town centre.

These routes replace route 35. Take me to new timetable

Routes 6/6A
New route 6 will run between High Wycombe, Daws Hill, Flackwell Heath and Bourne End. Buses will run up to every hour, Monday to Saturday daytimes. Additional journeys run on school days to connect with Marlow Hill Schools.

Together, routes 5, 6 and 7 will run up to every 20 minutes between High Wycombe and Bourne End.

Route 6A continues to serve Penn, Tylers Green and Hazlemere to connect with Marlow Hill Schools and Buckinghamshire College at Flackwell Heath.

These routes replace routes 36, 36S and 36B. Take me to new timetable

Routes 7/7A
New route 7 will run between High Wycombe, Loudwater, Bourne End, Cookham and Maidenhead. Buses will run up to every hour, Monday to Saturday daytimes.

Together, routes 5, 6 and 7 will run up to every 20 minutes between High Wycombe and Bourne End.

Service 7A runs up to hourly on Sundays, following a simpler route between High Wycombe, Flackwell Heath, Wooburn Green and Bourne End. Oakland Way and Chapman Lane will no longer be served.

These routes replace routes 37 and 37A. Take me to new timetable

Route 10
New route 10 connects High Wycombe with Downley. You’ll see more buses, more often, with buses running up to every 20 minutes Monday to Saturday and hourly on Sundays. We’ve also made significant changes to the timetable to improve our timekeeping.

Arrivals into High Wycombe bus station are coordinated to allow for seamless onward journeys with the rest of the Arriva bus network.

This route replaces route 30. Take me to new timetable

Route 11
New route 11 connects High Wycombe with Hazlemere, Tylers Green and Penn. We’re doubling the number of buses on this service, now running up to every 30 minutes Monday to Saturday and hourly on Sundays.

Buses will continue to call right outside High Wycombe railway station entrance.

This route replaces route 31. Take me to new timetable

Route 12
New route 12 connects High Wycombe with Micklefield, along London Road. You’ll see more buses, more often, with buses running up to every 15 minutes Monday to Friday, up to every 20 minutes Saturdays and every 30 minutes on Sundays.

Evening and Sunday journeys will run through Roebuck Avenue towards Micklefield and St Hugh's Avenue towards the town centre.

This route partially replaces routes 32/32A. Take me to new timetable

Route 13
New route 13 connects High Wycombe with Totteridge. Buses will now run up to every 20 minutes Monday to Saturday and hourly on Sundays. We’ve also made significant changes to the timetable to improve our timekeeping.

Arrivals into High Wycombe bus station are coordinated to allow for seamless onward journeys with the rest of the Arriva bus network. Buses will continue to call right outside High Wycombe railway station entrance. Hollis Road will no longer be served during the evenings and on Sundays.

This route partially replaces routes 33/33A. Take me to new timetable

Route 300/X30
To better meet the needs of students travelling to Princes Risborough School there will be changes to some schoolday journeys.

Take a look at the new timetable here

Route 800/850
Stay out later in Reading - we're introducing additional evening journeys linking High Wycombe, Henley and Reading in partnership with Oxfordshire County Council.

We’re also making significant timetable changes to enhance connectivity and to improve our timekeeping.

In consultation with the Parish Council, we’ve made some changes to the times of journeys serving Binfield Heath to improve connectivity with Henley-on-Thames and Reading.

Take a look at the new timetable here

Route X80
During term time, the morning journeys of the X80 will run along Kings Road and Deanfield Avenue in Henley-on-Thames to drop off students directly outside The Henley College. Additionally, the X80 will now serve Desborough Avenue in High Wycombe in both directions, following customer feedback. Buses will now only run during school term time.

Take a look at the new timetable here

Route 30
Route 30 will be replaced by Service 10; see this route for more details.

Route 31/31A
Route 31 will be replaced by Service 11; see this route for more details.

Route 32/32A
Between High Wycombe and Booker, route 32/32A will be replaced by an enhanced route 2, and between High Wycombe and Micklefield by route 12.

Route 33/33A
Between High Wycombe and Castlefield, route 33/33A will be replaced by an route 3, and between High Wycombe and Totteridge by route 13.

Routes 35, 36/36B/36S, and 37/37A
Routes 35, 36 and 37/37A will be replace by routes 5, 6 and 7/7A respectively. Buses will continue to connect High Wycombe and Bourne End up to every 20 minutes. See each route for more details.

Route 48
Route 48 is to be replaced by new service 4. See this route for more details.

Tickets and fares
Don't forget, there are changes to our High Wycombe Plus season tickets from 1st August, with our Orbit tickets now offering travel between Reading and Henley.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Aug 2023 ==

I Squared Capital want to take the whole group over when DB sell (you need to create an account to access the full article):

I Squared in Exclusive Talks to Buy Deutsche Bahn’s Arriva

I Squared Capital is in exclusive talks to acquire Deutsche Bahn AG’s Arriva transport business, which operates London’s iconic red double-decker buses, people with knowledge of the matter said.

www.bloomberg.com

I Squared Capital is in exclusive talks to acquire Deutsche Bahn AG’s Arriva transport business, which operates London’s iconic red double-decker buses, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The Miami-based infrastructure investment firm could finalize terms and financing as early as September, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. The deal could value Arriva at about €1.6 billion ($1.7 billion), the people said.

A spokesperson for Deutsche Bahn noted that it has already said it wants to sell Arriva by the end of 2024 and the process is ongoing. The person declined to comment further.

A representative for I Squared declined to comment. Talks could still be delayed or fall apart, the people said.

Sunderland, England-based Arriva runs bus and train services in Britain and several continental European countries. As well as some London buses, it operates the London Overground network of suburban rail services and Chiltern Railways, which runs passenger trains between the UK capital and Birmingham.
German state-owned railroad operator Deutsche Bahn acquired the business in 2010 for about $3.7 billion including debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Previous attempts to list or sell the unit failed in 2019, when bids came in well below book value. Since then, Arriva trimmed its footprint by selling businesses in Denmark, Serbia and Poland to turnaround specialist Mutares SE.
Bloomberg News reported in June that I Squared has emerged as the frontrunner for Arriva because other suitors only wanted parts of it.
A sale of Arriva would help Deutsche Bahn streamline its operations and slash debt as it seeks to modernize its domestic railroad operations. Deutsche Bahn is also exploring a sale of its DB Schenker logistics unit, which could be valued at around €20 billion.

— With assistance by Gillian Tan

 

[MotCO]

Resturcturement of High Wycombe services from 3 September

Latest News - Arriva UK Bus

www.arrivabus.co.uk

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Aug 2023 ==

I Squared Capital want to take the whole group over when DB sell (you need to create an account to access the full article):

I Squared in Exclusive Talks to Buy Deutsche Bahn’s Arriva

I Squared Capital is in exclusive talks to acquire Deutsche Bahn AG’s Arriva transport business, which operates London’s iconic red double-decker buses, people with knowledge of the matter said.

www.bloomberg.com

Will I Squared invest in Arriva - it has had few new buses recently and its networks seem to be in decline - or will they asset strip it? I suspect the latter with sales to other bus operators.

 

[317 forever]

Will I Squared invest in Arriva - it has had few new buses recently and its networks seem to be in decline - or will they asset strip it? I suspect the latter with sales to other bus operators.

I wonder whether DB could sell Arriva to I Squared at effectively a discounted price to enable a quick and simple divestment.

Then I Squared will invite bids for any parts of its operation of interest to any existing or new players. This way, they could make a profit upon subsequent disposal of parts of Arriva.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Definitely one way of doing it

Although I guess that this approach has a risk as well as I don't think anyone here would deny that various chunks of the network are in need of some significant investment in certainly in terms of vehicles

 

[overthewater]

What Transport companies does I Squared own? Surly that would give us the best clue.

 

[MotCO]

What Transport companies does I Squared own? Surly that would give us the best clue.

It is very difficult to find out much about I Squared on Google. There is a September 2020 report which says that 20% of its investments are transport, but this turns out to be toll roads, workshops / service centres, and intermodal chassis and trailers. Not a bus or train to be seen!

http://data.treasury.ri.gov/dataset/30b8a8d9-3172-4d72-88c6-c9ae5dd21295/resource/6cdfaa71-f779-4bed-a2e5-72d63609eda1/download/I-Squared-Capital-presentation-Rhode-Island-IC.pdf

 

[Surreyman]

I wonder whether DB could sell Arriva to I Squared at effectively a discounted price to enable a quick and simple divestment.

Then I Squared will invite bids for any parts of its operation of interest to any existing or new players. This way, they could make a profit upon subsequent disposal of parts of Arriva.

That would appear to be one realistic option, the other might be to say: -
What parts of Arriva UK bus have the prospect of a realistic positive long term future? (I.e worth retaining, developing and investing in).
I'm thinking large urban networks which might be experiencing healthy commercial demand or which might be either franchised or given long term Govt support(in whatever form that might take).
Sell the rest to whoever is prepared to buy.
I don't pretend to know what actual financial/passenger demand conditions are at each individual operating unit or depot, my best guesses would probably be wrong.
Published recent accounts are usually 12 months out of date and subject to 'creative accountancy' and of course contain lots of references to Covid support.

 

[overthewater]

It clear which areas are not great for Arriva right now, you just need to read this thread for the cut backs

* Northumberland
* Wales
* Kent
* Home counties

The rest of the company is much healthy.

 

[northern506]

It clear which areas are not great for Arriva right now, you just need to read this thread for the cut backs

* Northumberland
* Wales
* Kent
* Home counties

The rest of the company is much healthy.

Arriva Northumbria is actually doing quite well - Arriva disposing of routes 51-55 is a very good commercial decision. It means they can add extra buses to the very profitable 43/44/45 services and reduce daily cancellations.

All of the express services are very strong - especially the X14/X15/X18, which have higher loadings when compared to pre-pandemic loadings.

 

[MB1]

It clear which areas are not great for Arriva right now, you just need to read this thread for the cut backs

* Northumberland

Northumberland is a bit of a stretch. The cuts are in Tyne & Wear, and over the next few months they are strongly rumoured to be gaining additional work for Northumbria, as well as the introduction of the 434 next week.

Northumbria not being a great area for them simply isn't true, there are several lucrative corridors (most of which won't be impacted by the railway, either) and many routes are now seeing higher passenger numbers now than they were pre-2020.

 

[northern506]

Northumberland is a bit of a stretch. The cuts are in Tyne & Wear, and over the next few months they are strongly rumoured to be gaining additional work for Northumbria, as well as the introduction of the 434 next week.

Northumbria not being a great area for them simply isn't true, there are several lucrative corridors (most of which won't be impacted by the railway, either) and many routes are now seeing higher passenger numbers now than they were pre-2020.

That's correct. They have also won contracts to extend the 57A to Ashington, and the reintroduction of service X16 from Newcastle to Kirkhill.

 

[MB1]

That's correct. They have also won contracts to extend the 57A to Ashington, and the reintroduction of service X16 from Newcastle to Kirkhill.

Good to hear they're confirmed. The Morpeth corridor on a morning peak is incredibly busy given there's a competing train, the X16 will absolutely help to take the pressure off the X18 there. Daytime and weekend loadings can be equally strong, too. Add to that the growing patronage on the X14 north of Morpeth too, I've heard of a few recently arriving into Morpeth from Thropton with a full seated load on a decker.

On the 57A, I've seen reports recently of Solos leaving people at stops between Ashington and Cramlington due to being full so the demand is clearly there. It's a route that'll be totally free from any train impact too.

On your initial post, I'd absolutely agree with you that it makes sense to get rid of the 51-55 to focus extra resource into the 43/44/45. The 51/54 were struggling financially anyway by the looks of it, and I guess binning the other ones off also gives the operational flexibility to go and operate the 434, X16, and 57A which are all guaranteed income.

 

[northern506]

Good to hear they're confirmed. The Morpeth corridor on a morning peak is incredibly busy given there's a competing train, the X16 will absolutely help to take the pressure off the X18 there. Daytime and weekend loadings can be equally strong, too. Add to that the growing patronage on the X14 north of Morpeth too, I've heard of a few recently arriving into Morpeth from Thropton with a full seated load on a decker.

On the 57A, I've seen reports recently of Solos leaving people at stops between Ashington and Cramlington due to being full so the demand is clearly there. It's a route that'll be totally free from any train impact too.

On your initial post, I'd absolutely agree with you that it makes sense to get rid of the 51-55 to focus extra resource into the 43/44/45. The 51/54 were struggling financially anyway by the looks of it, and I guess binning the other ones off also gives the operational flexibility to go and operate the 434, X16, and 57A which are all guaranteed income.

Yeah, the 57/57A have got busier between Cramlington and Whitley Bay too - I think coinciding with GNE losing the 19 to Gateshead Central Taxis who are completely incompetent.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Stagecoach and GNE's replacement services for the 51-54 services Arriva have withdrawn. Stagecoach probably have the advantage on the current 52/55 services, with them having won the contract to operate the evening and Sunday service. Come March, the usual time for service changes in North Tyneside, it'll be interesting to see what remains. Overall, I think Arriva will be the ones better off.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Hmmm.... I think that for Northumberland, read North East. Also, I'd not be quite as optimistic on Northumberland

Firstly, I'd be interested to know the source of the comments that

All of the express services are very strong - especially the X14/X15/X18, which have higher loadings when compared to pre-pandemic loadings.

Of course, the X16's return is very welcome and with only 3/4 of the journeys during the daytime, load factors will be higher on the remaining journeys but is patronage really up overall on 2019? Or is this just anecdotal? And is the X16 a contract or a commercial initiative? Morpeth to Newcastle has always been a strong corridor given the peripheral location of Morpeth station (and Newcastle Central) and the extent of bus priority down the Great North Road and through Gosforth. Quite simply, it's quicker for most people.

Also, it's tempting to think that the resources (drivers?) will be redeployed on those routes operated from Blyth and Ashington. However, I wonder how many Arriva drivers currently at Walkergate will transfer? If they live in Cramlington, then possibly though you'd question why they aren't already at Blyth but if it's Newcastle/North Tyneside, I'd reckon very few.

As for who'll win the battle for the former Arriva routes... I'd suggest Stagecoach is in pole position given that they are doing so via an extension to the 38 so it's a marginal increase in resources compared to Go NE standalone resources and cost.

In terms of rumoured additional work in Northumberland... Is this Bus Service Improvement Plan related?

 

[Simon75]

It clear which areas are not great for Arriva right now, you just need to read this thread for the cut backs

* Northumberland
* Wales
* Kent
* Home counties

The rest of the company is much healthy.

North West they got rid of Winsford and Macclesfield
Midlands Oswestry

Do Arriva have garage in Morpeth?

 

[northern506]

Hmmm.... I think that for Northumberland, read North East. Also, I'd not be quite as optimistic on Northumberland

Firstly, I'd be interested to know the source of the comments that


Of course, the X16's return is very welcome and with only 3/4 of the journeys during the daytime, load factors will be higher on the remaining journeys but is patronage really up overall on 2019? Or is this just anecdotal? And is the X16 a contract or a commercial initiative? Morpeth to Newcastle has always been a strong corridor given the peripheral location of Morpeth station (and Newcastle Central) and the extent of bus priority down the Great North Road and through Gosforth. Quite simply, it's quicker for most people.

Also, it's tempting to think that the resources (drivers?) will be redeployed on those routes operated from Blyth and Ashington. However, I wonder how many Arriva drivers currently at Walkergate will transfer? If they live in Cramlington, then possibly though you'd question why they aren't already at Blyth but if it's Newcastle/North Tyneside, I'd reckon very few.

As for who'll win the battle for the former Arriva routes... I'd suggest Stagecoach is in pole position given that they are doing so via an extension to the 38 so it's a marginal increase in resources compared to Go NE standalone resources and cost.

In terms of rumoured additional work in Northumberland... Is this Bus Service Improvement Plan related?

Yes, patronage is up overall from 2019 levels despite the drop in frequency (that is the X16 being withdrawn).

I’d be tempted to say it could well be down to the £2 fares being introduced - the fares were very expensive before, Morpeth to Newcastle was about £6 for a single.

The X16 isn’t a commercial initiative- it’s funded by Northumberland Council using funds from the BSIP.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Yes, patronage is up overall from 2019 levels despite the drop in frequency (that is the X16 being withdrawn).

I’d be tempted to say it could well be down to the £2 fares being introduced - the fares were very expensive before, Morpeth to Newcastle was about £6 for a single.

The X16 isn’t a commercial initiative- it’s funded by Northumberland Council using funds from the BSIP.

Not wishing to seem arsey (honestly) but what is the source for the assertion that passenger numbers are up? Begs the question is the reason purely down to the £2 fares? Given that they need support to reinstate the X16, something doesn't stack up financially.

Certainly, the return of the X16 is welcome given the lopsided frequency.

I'd noticed that they'd got the 434 back from Phoenix. It's a route that has had many an operator - Northumbria and Arriva, Go North East, Serene Travel, Northumbria Coaches as well as Phoenix spring to mind

North West they got rid of Winsford and Macclesfield
Midlands Oswestry

Do Arriva have garage in Morpeth?

Not had a depot in Morpeth since 2002. Services are operated by Ashington and Blyth, and the Alnwick outstation.

 

[MB1]

Not wishing to seem arsey (honestly) but what is the source for the assertion that passenger numbers are up? Begs the question is the reason purely down to the £2 fares? Given that they need support to reinstate the X16, something doesn't stack up financially.

Certainly, the return of the X16 is welcome given the lopsided frequency.

I'd noticed that they'd got the 434 back from Phoenix. It's a route that has had many an operator - Northumbria and Arriva, Go North East, Serene Travel, Northumbria Coaches as well as Phoenix spring to mind

I think it is somewhat due to the £2 fares, but I know they were pretty healthy even before the introduction of those.

My best guess on the X16 coming back is that the tender has come up at the best time for Arriva operationally. They've not really had the resource, vehicle or personnel, to reintroduce it commercially since its withdrawal and I'd assume if the X14/15/18 are just about coping then it likely hasn't been a priority. I'd imagine they've viewed this as an opportunity to go in aggressively on their bid, reintroduce the X16 with subsidy, and see if passenger numbers hold up past the end of the £2 fares before deciding whether to continue?

On the 434, it looks to be routed to maximise connectivity with the train? I also wonder if the increase to an hourly frequency was intended to be appealing to potential workers at the planned battery factory.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I think it is somewhat due to the £2 fares, but I know they were pretty healthy even before the introduction of those.

My best guess on the X16 coming back is that the tender has come up at the best time for Arriva operationally. They've not really had the resource, vehicle or personnel, to reintroduce it commercially since its withdrawal and I'd assume if the X14/15/18 are just about coping then it likely hasn't been a priority. I'd imagine they've viewed this as an opportunity to go in aggressively on their bid, reintroduce the X16 with subsidy, and see if passenger numbers hold up past the end of the £2 fares before deciding whether to continue?

On the 434, it looks to be routed to maximise connectivity with the train? I also wonder if the increase to an hourly frequency was intended to be appealing to potential workers at the planned battery factory.

As I said before, Morpeth to Newcastle has always been a good corridor. Arriva did up the frequency to every 15 mins with Kickstart funding in 2005/6 with the introduction of the short 518s. Even historically, there were 3 buses per hour plus a slightly slower stopper via Wideopen. Given it is a supported uplift on a commercial corridor, I'd be interested to see how much Arriva is actually getting.

In terms of the 434, the gigafactory would take at least two years to build; it's still just a wasteground with some signage IIRC so I don't think it's to do with that. It's probably about connecting isolated communities etc rather than something that may well never be built.

 

[RELL6L]

Resturcturement of High Wycombe services from 3 September

Latest News - Arriva UK Bus

www.arrivabus.co.uk

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Aug 2023 ==

I Squared Capital want to take the whole group over when DB sell (you need to create an account to access the full article):

I Squared in Exclusive Talks to Buy Deutsche Bahn’s Arriva

I Squared Capital is in exclusive talks to acquire Deutsche Bahn AG’s Arriva transport business, which operates London’s iconic red double-decker buses, people with knowledge of the matter said.

www.bloomberg.com

The new Wycombe network is now being advertised with 'New routes and timetables' alternating on and off with the route etc on vehicles locally.
There have been a handful of double deckers on the 800/850 recently, previously unheard of, I wonder if a few working will get deckers. In view of the reduction in journeys at school times I think they may be necessary.
The publicity doesn't mention it but it appears that the 2 and 12 will interwork - making it the same as the existing 32 - but at an improved frequency and using two additional vehicles.
It's pretty much improvements throughout - I wonder where the additional vehicles will come from. Aylesbury perhaps, losing the 9? Or Hemel Hempstead, where 5 deckers remain now confined to local route 2.

 

[duncombec]

The new Wycombe network is now being advertised with 'New routes and timetables' alternating on and off with the route etc on vehicles locally.
There have been a handful of double deckers on the 800/850 recently, previously unheard of, I wonder if a few working will get deckers. In view of the reduction in journeys at school times I think they may be necessary.
The publicity doesn't mention it but it appears that the 2 and 12 will interwork - making it the same as the existing 32 - but at an improved frequency and using two additional vehicles.
It's pretty much improvements throughout - I wonder where the additional vehicles will come from. Aylesbury perhaps, losing the 9? Or Hemel Hempstead, where 5 deckers remain now confined to local route 2.

Toby France, Head of Commercial for the area, has posted a very extensive commentary on the changes on the Oxford Chiltern Bus Page (https://www.oxford-chiltern-bus-page.co.uk/Weekly Briefing nr 264 230823.html). In his comments for the 800/850, he states:

There are some significant timetable changes to routes 800/850 to enhance connectivity and to improve our timekeeping, with buses running out of Wycombe every 20 minutes in the morning peak. We’ve partnered with Oxfordshire County Council to reintroduce later evening journeys between Reading and Henley-on-Thames, and have also made some changes to the times of journeys serving Binfield Heath following feedback from the Parish Council there. During term times the morning X80 service is extended along Kings Road and Deanfield Avenue in Henley-on-Thames to drop off students directly outside The Henley College; additionally the X80 will now serve Desborough Avenue in High Wycombe in both directions following customer feedback.

Thanks to some judicious tree cutting we are pleased to be introducing double-decker buses to these services, giving additional capacity for peak movements and offering grandstand views across the Chilterns and the Thames Valley. You may have seen some of the existing double-decker allocation at Wycombe depot at work on these routes through the summer holidays, with further vehicle moves planned for the autumn.

I think it reasonable to describe his commentary on this and other issues as stridently defensive, as exhibited by the paragraph directly following the 800/850 excerpt above.

As mentioned, the new network builds on current and developing travel patterns and needs as opposed to those of times gone by, with significant input from our customers, our driving team, and our local authority stakeholders. It has not, despite what one armchair enthusiast may suggest, been designed by ‘a suit from Luton’ or anywhere else for that matter!

Defensive it may be, but it's nice to see someone step forward and shout about things: I do wish his counterpart in Kent would put his or her head above the parapet similarly, even if it were full of things we don't want to hear!