Are TOC's profiting by not releasing advance fares?

[Gnasher11]

My experience is with GWR, I have had to change my usual journey of Penzance to Paddington direct, as the dates I want to travel still show no advances, I have been checking relentlessly to no avail, so now I am splitting at Exeter St. David's and picking up advances for SWR to Waterloo which are available.
In the other direction I used to travel seat only on the sleeper for £24 advance, but only walk up fares are available and some dates (17th May) show no sleeper! I am aware of the Newbury works, but GWR's website does not make it clear what will happen with the sleeper. What are other people's experiences? The Network Rail blurb said that the late timetabling would only affect a minority?

 

[Chester1]

My experience is with GWR, I have had to change my usual journey of Penzance to Paddington direct, as the dates I want to travel still show no advances, I have been checking relentlessly to no avail, so now I am splitting at Exeter St. David's and picking up advances for SWR to Waterloo which are available.
In the other direction I used to travel seat only on the sleeper for £24 advance, but only walk up fares are available and some dates (17th May) show no sleeper! I am aware of the Newbury works, but GWR's website does not make it clear what will happen with the sleeper. What are other people's experiences? The Network Rail blurb said that the late timetabling would only affect a minority?

ToCs are not obliged to sell advanced fares and it sensible for them not to if they are unsure about what they can run during engineering works. If only a limited service can run then they are best not selling any advances and instead selling more on other days to try to balance out loadings.

 

[Gnasher11]

I am aware of that, but when all of their advertising says book early to get the best fares....I was more interested in whether other people had changed plans or travel mode because of this, perhaps I should have worded it better

 

[robbeech]

There will be a number of people that will have booked walk up fares for a journey that they’d normally book an advance for. However there will be other people that will have chosen to use the car or bus or plane instead. It will likely balance out.

Does a TOC profit from a walk up fare in this case?
Not necessarily. If we take an advance between London King’s Cross and York on VTEC then VTEC will bag the money. If you bought a Super off peak single then whilst it would of course cost the psssemger more money itsunlikely VTEC would make any more as it would be shared with GC, Hull Trains, EMT, and to a lesser extent XC, TPE, Northern, GTR, GA.

 

[Starmill]

Probably not!

I have assisted a number of my friends and family with their summer holiday bookings, day trips in June and so on. They have all had the same experience of looking online only to see very very high prices. I have explained in detail where I can which dates are and are not available for reservation and about the industry's ongoing timetable meltdown.

Some people have taken my advice and booked one direction - on the risk that if Advance tickets are not released for their return journey they will need to pay the Off Peak fare. Others have booked their accommodation, attractions and outward rail tickets, but as they don't want that risk they have booked return journeys by air. Still others have considered everything and decided that they will drive the whole way instead of taking the train, because they don't want to wait around for booking to open.

Hoteliers, airlines, coach companies, car hire firms and package holiday agents are not shortening their booking horizons - only the railways are. It may be weekends only in some cases but weekends are the popular times for short breaks and day trips. I myself am awaiting 26th May to open for reservation, we are now less than 4 weeks away and VT have not got reservation open because they say the timetable is unconfirmed. I'm a patient customer but lots of people aren't. This is not good for business.

 

[Starmill]

VTEC would make any more as it would be shared with GC, Hull Trains, EMT, and to a lesser extent XC, TPE, Northern, GTR, GA.

While in theory this may make sense, almost all of the revenue will go to VTEC in this example, with most of the rest going to Grand Central.

Greater Anglia, Northern and Thameslink are never part of the fastest way from London to York, so they would likely receive 0% of this fare.

The most important things to determine allocation are the number of journeys and the speed of the journeys. Wholly overtaken journeys are very unlikely to have an impact. I believe weighting for the capacity of the rolling stock is also applied to standard allocations. There is one journey here or there that involved XC between York and Doncaster on York <> London journeys, e.g. 1933 from Kigns Cross, so they may get a sliver. On Saturday nights it is quicker to go via Leeds and use TransPennine, so they might get a sliver from that also.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Advances are intended to fill empty seats. If there are not going to be any empty seats on a given train, there should not be any Advances.

 

[Starmill]

Advances are intended to fill empty seats. If there are not going to be any empty seats on a given train, there should not be any Advances.

You can keep on saying this until you are blue in the face - it will not make the TOCs behave in this manner.

 

[yorkie]

Advances are intended to fill empty seats.

Maybe that is the case at a company you've been involved in, but it is undeniable that most long distance train companies use Advance fares as a yield management tool.

If there are not going to be any empty seats on a given train, there should not be any Advances.

I think that's your opinion, which you are entitled to. But it is not the opinion of most train companies.

 

[exile]

Advances are intended to fill empty seats. If there are not going to be any empty seats on a given train, there should not be any Advances.

I'd be happy with that, if the converse applies - if there are empty seats there should be no full price tickets.....

 

[Starmill]

Examples are absolutely everywhere. The 1811 departure from Manchester Piccadilly is pretty much always full and standing. The same goes for the 1743, these services call at Stalybridge and there is often hardly room to physically board. And yet all next week they have an Advance ticket to Leeds available for £13.50. This is clearly because there is demand for travel to Leeds at that time and TransPennine want to encourage it, as it's far more profitable for them to sell those Advance tickets than just to carry the Stalybridge commuters.

 

[Starmill]

I'd be happy with that, if the converse applies - if there are empty seats there should be no full price tickets.....

This is also the opposite of the reality. The VT services 0915 from Manchester Piccadilly and 1700 from London Euston and the are generally relatively lightly loaded. Some days are busier than others but there is no question they would be all seats taken. However, Advance prices for these trains are very, very high - often more than £100, which is still a big discount over the walk-on fare for these trains which is £169. This is clearly because, for VT, it's more profitable for them to keep prices high and allow the seats to go unused, effectively reserving them for someone willing to pay £169 single just before the train departs, and accepting that not every one will be sold. The same applies to First Class seating on most of VT's Monday - Friday services run by Pendolinos - there will usually be a large number of empty seats but this is done to preserve the ambiance and Advance prices are kept high.

 

[Gareth Marston]

As yorkie says advance purchase is nothing to do with the TOC's thinking about their passengers £ pockets. There are multi faceted reasons why their done the most recent being specified for Northern Connect services by the DfT.

At their most basic their used to circumvent ORCATs so that the selling TOC keeps more revenue on a flow than via other tickets. I sell AP's on trains I know are often crush loaded on a regular basis.
They also create the illusion that you are guaranteed a discount by booking ahead. How many people end up buying full price tickets When they were going to look at going by train if they could get a good deal?

 

[Tetchytyke]

Advances are intended to fill empty seats.

Back in the 90s, yeah, but not now. Yield management isn't (just) about getting bums on seats.

 

[Joe Paxton]

Advances are intended to fill empty seats. If there are not going to be any empty seats on a given train, there should not be any Advances.

Care to show your workings?

 

[sheff1]

Advances are intended to fill empty seats.

I am sure people without a reservation travelling on a XC train from Leeds to Sheffield or Birmingham to Derby* in the evening peak will be pleased to know that Advances are only sold for those trains to fill empty seats.

*other flows are available