Are TFW fare rises getting out of hand?

[markymark2000]

Over the past few years, it seems to have become a policy within TFW to do 2 unnannounced fare hikes per year and do them at times which don't link up with the national fare rise dates. Fares are going up by far more than inflation too..

To give an idea, Chester to Shrewsbury off peak day return.
April 2024 ish (as far back as BR Fares goes) - £13.20
On 4th June 2024 it rose to - £13.90
Then on 1st March 2025 - £14.80
And again on 8th June 2025 - £15.70

Over the space of less than 18 months, fares have risen by nearly 19% which is absurd. By comparison, the anytime ticket (which I believe is restricted by the Govt fare cap) has as only risen once, on the 2nd March from £16.60 to £17.50 a rise of 5.4%.

It's becoming a bit of a joke and I'm wondering if anyone else is noticing such fare hikes in their areas with TFW, and whether Chester - Shrewsbury is just an extreme example with the rises, or whether this is a bigger thing across their network..

Why are TFW getting away with these constant inflation busting fare rises? Why are they always unannounced?
It's rather funny that at the same time Labour are running around bragging about nationalisation, and how everything is privatisations fault, then you have TFW who are owned by the Welsh Government (which itself is ran by Labour), rising fares unannounced twice per year, well above inflation.

 

[JonathanH]

Why are TFW getting away with these constant inflation busting fare rises? Why are they always unannounced?

Is it an attempt to work towards harmonised prices at one level, so that there is no differential between peak and off-peak fares, without it being a one-off fare increase?

If the anytime fare is deemed to be the right level for a harmonised fare, then the off-peak fare has to be levelled up to that figure. There are certainly other places on the TfW network that now only have anytime fares.

 

[Hadders]

There are three fares rounds each year, January, May and September. The January round has been delayed to March in recent years.

Train companies can do as they see fit with unregulated fares. For the time being the regulated fare provides a cap on fares, depending on which fare is regulated for a particular flow. The regulated fare was set at privitisation and is typically the Off Peak Return on long distance services but on other flows (eg the London commuting area) can be the Anytime Day Return.

Fares regulation is far from perfect but it has provided a cap on overall fares. Train Companies/RDG/DfT (and presumably the Welsh Government) don't like fares regulation and want to remove it. It's effectively gone on LNER with the 'simpler fares' trial and it'll be gone when GBR comes.

I've been warning for years that this sort of thing will happen.....

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

That's long been a strategy approach for a lot of operators - raise the off peak fares by more each time, so that eventually they are within pence of the Anytime fare, and you can delete them completely and claim you've simplified the structure by removing now redundant fares.

Happened less after COVID, when government took on the risk - but it's not new.

It may well be a precursor to pay as you go ticketing or the introduction of cheaper advance fares that did not exist before.

TfW have put an incredible amount of investment into the rail operations side of things, new fleets, better customer service, nicer stations. They've really upped their game compared to the old days of Wales and Borders and ATW.

 

[Llandudno]

Over the past few years, it seems to have become a policy within TFW to do 2 unnannounced fare hikes per year and do them at times which don't link up with the national fare rise dates. Fares are going up by far more than inflation too..

To give an idea, Chester to Shrewsbury off peak day return.
April 2024 ish (as far back as BR Fares goes) - £13.20
On 4th June 2024 it rose to - £13.90
Then on 1st March 2025 - £14.80
And again on 8th June 2025 - £15.70

Over the space of less than 18 months, fares have risen by nearly 19% which is absurd. By comparison, the anytime ticket (which I believe is restricted by the Govt fare cap) has as only risen once, on the 2nd March from £16.60 to £17.50 a rise of 5.4%.

It's becoming a bit of a joke and I'm wondering if anyone else is noticing such fare hikes in their areas with TFW, and whether Chester - Shrewsbury is just an extreme example with the rises, or whether this is a bigger thing across their network..

Why are TFW getting away with these constant inflation busting fare rises? Why are they always unannounced?
It's rather funny that at the same time Labour are running around bragging about nationalisation, and how everything is privatisations fault, then you have TFW who are owned by the Welsh Government (which itself is ran by Labour), rising fares unannounced twice per year, well above inflation.

I wonder if it’s only for TfW fares for journeys wholly within England that have been increased by such a high percentage……!

 

[Haywain]

Train companies can do as they see fit with unregulated fares. For the time being the regulated fare provides a cap on fares, depending on which fare is regulated for a particular flow. The regulated fare was set at privitisation and is typically the Off Peak Return on long distance services but on other flows (eg the London commuting area) can be the Anytime Day Return.

Fares regulation is far from perfect but it has provided a cap on overall fares. Train Companies/RDG/DfT (and presumably the Welsh Government) don't like fares regulation and want to remove it. It's effectively gone on LNER with the 'simpler fares' trial and it'll be gone when GBR comes.

Fares regulation is no longer a thing in reality, because the regulators also control fares.

 

[mikeb42]

I wonder if it’s only for TfW fares for journeys wholly within England that have been increased by such a high percentage……!

Nope!

Newport<->Hereford CDR

Jul 2024: £21.80
Jul 2025: £26

D=19.3%

It's now a total ripoff for 41 road miles each way at 32p/mi for a ticket with morning and evening restrictions.

Abergavenny to Hereford is even worse at £17.10 for just 23 miles each way - 37p/mi.

The fares from Bristol (the journey we make) are set by TfW and even more bat***t crazy at 40+ p/mile. It's just up the road, it's not a trip to Monte Carlo! Anyone in their right mind splits, but it doesn't help much now.

It's beyond me why anyone would pay such fares other than as a distress purchase. London at 25p/mi is bad enough but at least makes some kind of sense in terms of speed and comfort when GWR actually decides to work.

These TfW fares are just stupid from where we're sitting. As we've got more sense than money, we now drive. Even with only one occupant in a fairly new German repmobile the total cost is less than 30p/mile, fuel, cost of tying up capital/depreciation, maintenance, the lot. Without the hassle and time wasted using slow rubbish unreliable trains.

If the objective is to price off those who aren't desperate, deranged or drowning in money, it's worked on us.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Nope!

Newport<->Hereford CDR

Jul 2024: £21.80
Jul 2025: £26

D=19.3%

It's now a total ripoff for 41 road miles each way at 32p/mi for a ticket with morning and evening restrictions.

Abergavenny to Hereford is even worse at £17.10 for just 23 miles each way - 37p/mi.

The fares from Bristol (the journey we make) are set by TfW and even more bat***t crazy at 40+ p/mile. It's just up the road, it's not a trip to Monte Carlo! Anyone in their right mind splits, but it doesn't help much now.

It's beyond me why anyone would pay such fares other than as a distress purchase. London at 25p/mi is bad enough but at least makes some kind of sense in terms of speed and comfort when GWR actually decides to work.

These TfW fares are just stupid from where we're sitting. As we've got more sense than money, we now drive. Even with only one occupant in a fairly new German repmobile the Total Cost is less than 30p/mile, fuel, cost of capital, deprecation, maintenance, the lot. Without the hassle and time wasted using slow rubbish unreliable trains.

If the objective is to price off those who aren't desperate, deranged or drowning in money, it's worked on us.

Yet passenger growth on TfW is very healthy and some of the best in the UK.

A lot of these services were previously considered as secondary or highly localised. A good part of TfW is now beginning to be transformed into a proper genuine intercity operation that can compete with the likes of CrossCountry and to a lesser extent GWR.

So yes, the demographic of passengers has almost certainly evolved, or at least, the expectations of their customers.

For the likes of Abergavenny to Hereford, barely anyone would make that journey these days without purchasing in advance. TfW has good availability of generally cheap Advance fares right up to departure. As low as £4 in first class too!

Forum members often don't consider the wider psychology either - increase fares, and expectations increase too. There can be something reassuring about buying something that doesn't seem too cheap, but also not completely extortionate (Avanti Anytime fares). TfW doesn't want to see themselves as cheap and cheerful as a second rate operator anymore. Fare rises can grow a market by attracting people who have been sceptical before. I'll stop there before Rory Sutherland joins in!

 

[mikeb42]

For the likes of Abergavenny to Hereford, barely anyone would make that journey these days without purchasing in advance. TfW has good availability of generally cheap Advance fares right up to departure. As low as £4 in first class too!

Really? Please point me to a single example of that journey today on trainsplit. Going in the afternoon and coming back in the evening?

Tomorrow?

Monday? Tuesday? Friday? Two weeks Wednesday?

That's no, no, no, no, no and no. £17.10 or nothing.

This isn't a hypothetical, this is the result of us looking at fares as we have to do a related journey 4x in the next few days and thinking "screw that then, better fill the car up".

Nonexistent reasonably priced advances, just like GWR for the most part these days.

Where someone is getting good value from TfW is if they want to go from Maesteg to Abergavenny and use tap and go. That's fine and dandy for them.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Yet passenger growth on TfW is very healthy and some of the best in the UK.

A lot of these services were previously considered as secondary or highly localised. A good part of TfW is now beginning to be transformed into a proper genuine intercity operation that can compete with the likes of CrossCountry and to a lesser extent GWR.

So yes, the demographic of passengers has almost certainly evolved, or at least, the expectations of their customers.

For the likes of Abergavenny to Hereford, barely anyone would make that journey these days without purchasing in advance. TfW has good availability of generally cheap Advance fares right up to departure. As low as £4 in first class too!

Forum members often don't consider the wider psychology either - increase fares, and expectations increase too. There can be something reassuring about buying something that doesn't seem too cheap, but also not completely extortionate (Avanti Anytime fares). TfW doesn't want to see themselves as cheap and cheerful as a second rate operator anymore. Fare rises can grow a market by attracting people who have been sceptical before. I'll stop there before Rory Sutherland joins in!

They're offering £10.80 Advance fares right now on a journey that costs £14.10. There are always winners and losers as you can't cover every set of circumstances - but again, they are not short of passengers willing to pay.

And again, how many people do you think really travel from Abergavenny to Hereford on the spur of the moment? Practically none I'd imagine. Why would they. There's barely a handful of buses per day, so it's hardly a popular flow.

I very much doubt you can drive there and back for £17.10 when you consider the driving costs and charges in totality.

 

[mikeb42]

They're offering £10.80 Advance fares right now on a journey that costs £14.10.

Which is useless to anyone who isn't making, for some curious reason, a one way journey, never to return. Abergavenny isn't that bad .

In any case, £10.80 one way is even worse value at a usurious 47p/mile, so you're making my case for me!

The cheapest *return* fare now or at any date in the future that I can find is £17.10


Likewise, Bristol<->Hereford, the actual journey we are making, is for all future dates we tried £38.something return. That's by splitting walkup fares. The through fare is £50+ which is just nuts. There are 0 advances that offer any saving over the split walkup.

Abergavenny and Hereford are adjacent stations on a main line and are also the two adjacent towns connected by the trunk road of the area. There's nothing ludicrous about the concept of travelling between them although our interest in that journey is purely for splitting purposes.

It would be easy to make this return journey by road for less than £17.10, all hidden costs included. I know this as I'm compelled to analyse all my travel costs in considerable detail for tax and accounting purposes. It's currently around 27p/mile (parking included) for me as a high mileage driver and I could do it a deal cheaper if I was inclined to slum it more in an older or more fuel efficient car.

If there's two or more of us in the car, the train is no longer even worth considering for a journey like this. It wouldn't be so bad if it was fast and reliable. It's neither.

 

[splashoutradio]

Using the fare manuals on railwaydata.co.uk (these go back to 2020, but only cover the primary yearly increases). I picked a random welsh route with both CDR & SDR fares and no advance options available - in this case Cardiff Central to Bridgend.

In 2022, Bridgend was grouped with Baglan and saw a huge increase as a result. In 2023 the fare for Baglan was reduced, presumably to counteract the 40%+ increase some stations saw in the previous year. In 2025 Bridgend and Baglan fares were once again seperated, with Bridgend seeing a 11.54/5.43% increase (in line with many other TfW fares), and Baglan jumping up to its previous pricepoint of SDR £14.70 with no CDR option available.

CDR FARE
2020 £6.10
2021 £6.10 0%
2022 £6.30 +3.17%
2023 10.60 +40.57%
2024 £6.90 - 34.9%
2025 £7.80 + 11.54%
Total increase 2020-25: +21.79%

SDR FARE
2020 £7.70
2021 £7.70 0%
2022 £7.90 +2.53%
2023 £13.30 +40.6%
2024 £8.70 -34.59%
2025 £9.20 +5.43%
Total increase 2020-25: +16.3%

Is possibly worth mentioning too, that PAYG capping appears to be in use on this route, at a price of £8.50. And there are additional fares for small groups traveling together. It's all very messy...