Are speculative ideas less popular?

[Sad Sprinter]

I guess we have seen most of them before, thats the issue.

Yes there is the standard shuffling of rolling stock threads.

But several of them just seem to be "lets reopen this line Beeching closed" or "Lets miss out this major population centre so xxx tiny village can get 3 direct services to London per hour.

There is the frequent double decker train threads.

The frequent "my new sleeper train idea" threads.

I wonder whether we are just tired of the same old ideas being rehashed and frequently still not taking into account the real world situation of costs of running and constructing railways and often taking umbridge when the ideas are poo-pooed.

I guess do you want the ideas to be discussed from the perspective of enthusiasts or the railway professionals on the forum.

I think it's acceptable to not consider the real world situation because otherwise there's very little point of having a speculative thread in general. Having economics gatekeep visionary and theoretical thinking seems endearingly nihilistic.

I think its also perfectly acceptable to assume that given the vast majority of people on this forum probably dont have an industry level of knowledge, to approach speculative ideas as if they're just enthusiasts looking for connection. I think being rude and alienating people in an already niche community is just disingenuous.

I do get that sleeper train threads are quite popular lately and personally have never been an interest of mine, nor double deckers. But I suppose double decker trains is just one of those things that almost everyone has thought about whether they're enthusiasts or not.

 

[Harpo]

I think it's acceptable to not consider the real world situation because otherwise there's very little point of having a speculative thread in general.

Maybe speculative and fantasy need distinguishing? One tied to reality and one completely off the wall?

I think being rude and alienating people in an already niche community is just disingenuous.

Agreed! No such thing as a stupid question. Sadly though, there are egos out there!

 

[Indigo Soup]

Post brexit and covid we have had effectively zero economic growth for a long time, the public finances are screwed, getting back to 2-3% economic growth is the only way out, but it is going to be very hard to achieve that.

Funny old thing, most economists consider that one of the chief reasons for poor productivity is a lack of investment, and that one of the sectors where that investment is lacking is transport....

I think its also perfectly acceptable to assume that given the vast majority of people on this forum probably dont have an industry level of knowledge, to approach speculative ideas as if they're just enthusiasts looking for connection. I think being rude and alienating people in an already niche community is just disingenuous.

The disconnect definitely comes when the 'enthusiasts' want to find connection over a vision of what could be, or what could have been. That almost invariably involves a certain degree of detachment from the world as it is.

Meanwhile, the 'professionals' are dismissive of anything that doesn't fit into the modern railway's political and economic framework. Which means that any speculation involves only minor, incremental difference from the world as it is.

The former think the latter are boring and unimaginative. The latter think the former have no grasp of reality. Really, they just want to have different discussions.

 

[JonathanH]

Funny old thing, most economists consider that one of the chief reasons for poor productivity is a lack of investment, and that one of the sectors where that investment is lacking is transport....

There are multi billions committed to railway developments though until the mid 2040s but many projects simply need to wait their turn behind those. Today's speech by Kier Starmer talked of 150 infrastructure projects but not whether they are new ones.

Poor productivity arises because almost everyone works in the service sector and can't scale up their output.

 

[FlyingPotato]

Perhaps what is needed is a new category, a more fantasy based one so people can share their "crayon ideas" without it immediately being shut down with cries of too expensive or can't path that mate

 

[Mcr Warrior]

No such thing as a stupid question.

Here's mine... How much money is spent on feasibility studies and the like, for line re-openings, which, with the best will in the world, aren't realistically going to happen?

 

[zwk500]

The pall of gloom that's blanketed the railway since the pandemic has led me to give up hope of much improvement for the time being (the sort of improvements I'd get excited by anyway).

The interesting thing about the Pandemic response is that it showed if you got the right person in the offices that matter (well, realistically in the one office that matters) things could get unblocked quite quickly.

 

[liamf656]

I like it, speculating about speculation itself!

 

[mcmad]

Bear in mind Carstairs was on the drawing board way before covid.

Also, what was delivered at Carstairs wasn't an enhancement project but a joined up track and signalling renewal that maximised what could be delivered by stretching 'modern equivalent' to the limits and paid from from existing renewals funding

 

[Llanigraham]

Here's mine... How much money is spent on feasibility studies and the like, for line re-openings, which, with the best will in the world, aren't realistically going to happen?

Certainly in the one instance I know of, and on a subject that has come up several times on here, the re-opening of the Aberystwyth - Carmarthen line, where the feasability study cost many thousands of Pounds, and basically came to the conclusion that it's reinstatment would be too expensive for the service it could provide, but it still gets raised both here and by Plaid Cymru.

 

[YorksLad12]

Yes, to be fair, the TPE Wakefield services are pretty good.

Indeed.

I have sometimes mooted 'pump priming' services to build up custom and seeing if they can stand on their own (extending more Knottingley terminators to Goole, for example). In this instance, as TPE had to do route learning and diversions anyway they underwrote the cost of the extension, and it seems to be doing well. Whether it stays post-TRU is another matter; I can see TPE reverting to Victoria-Huddersfield, with Northern having to pick up Huddersfield-York (possibly with some of its proposed bi-modes). Speculation *is* lovely

 

[Bald Rick]

Isn’t it as simple as that all the, ahem, ‘visionary’ ideas have been exhausted now?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Dec 2024 ==

Here's mine... How much money is spent on feasibility studies and the like, for line re-openings, which, with the best will in the world, aren't realistically going to happen?

Overall? Probably a couple of million a year. Generally it is spent by local authorities though, not central Governement (until the RYR project appeared, that is).

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Perhaps what is needed is a new category, a more fantasy based one so people can share their "crayon ideas" without it immediately being shut down with cries of too expensive or can't path that mate

I would support this.

The latter think the former have no grasp of reality

Judging by the state Britain is in at moment I think it's hard to believe anyone has a grasp of reality!

Certainly in the one instance I know of, and on a subject that has come up several times on here, the re-opening of the Aberystwyth - Carmarthen line, where the feasability study cost many thousands of Pounds, and basically came to the conclusion that it's reinstatment would be too expensive for the service it could provide, but it still gets raised both here and by Plaid Cymru.

I will never understand that. I wonder what would happen if they “just built it”. Would the sky fall in?

Isn’t it as simple as that all the, ahem, ‘visionary’ ideas have been exhausted now?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Dec 2024 ==



Overall? Probably a couple of million a year. Generally it is spent by local authorities though, not central Governement (until the RYR project appeared, that is).

Only if you believe human ingenuity is a fixed constant

 

[JonathanH]

Perhaps what is needed is a new category, a more fantasy based one so people can share their "crayon ideas" without it immediately being shut down with cries of too expensive or can't path that mate

I would support this.

How would it work? Would it only be possible to comment favourably on any suggestion made?

 

[Magdalia]

Funny old thing, most economists consider that one of the chief reasons for poor productivity is a lack of investment, and that one of the sectors where that investment is lacking is transport....

I wonder what would happen if they “just built it”. Would the sky fall in?

The recent 2024 budget has at least tried to maintain investment in difficult financial circumstances. It remains to be seen whether budget feeds through into outturn.

But if "just build it" happened then economically the sky would fall in. Have you forgotten the 2022 "fiscal event" already? The people who lend the UK money would react in a similar way if the government decided to build significant numbers of the sorts of projects that get proposed here as speculative ideas.

The UK financial position means that it can't afford not to do good infrastructure projects that are going to boost productivity and economic growth, but choosing priorities really does matter. I think that informed discussions here are actually a better way of testing infrastructure projects than the spurious calculations based on dodgy assumptions favoured by HM Treasury and the consulting industry.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Certainly in the one instance I know of, and on a subject that has come up several times on here, the re-opening of the Aberystwyth - Carmarthen line, where the feasability study cost many thousands of Pounds, and basically came to the conclusion that it's reinstatment would be too expensive for the service it could provide, but it still gets raised both here and by Plaid Cymru.

It was £300,000 for that study - (was well done to be fair) , but would have bought some considerable train miles / maybe even some units for hard pressed existing routes with Wales , subject to availability of the latter of course.......Valleys and say North Wales main line.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It seems to me that any next steps are rebuilding rail services in small increments rather than any kind of big projects.

Likewise electrification imho. A bit of infill here and a bit there.

 

[FlyingPotato]

How would it work? Would it only be possible to comment favourably on any suggestion made?

No, but the purpose of it would be fantasy based so postings would not necessarily be grounded in reality E.G double decker trains. As we all would know this, negative feedback based on the current economic situation would be less relevant compared to a serious posting about electrifying reading to Basingstoke for example

Basically it would clearly split fantasy and crayon ideas and the more serious speculation based ideas, and feedback would be based on if it was fantasy or more serious

Now who decides which is which, it would be down to the individual but beyond that I can't tell you

 

[SynthD]

Perhaps what is needed is a new category, a more fantasy based one so people can share their "crayon ideas" without it immediately being shut down with cries of too expensive or can't path that mate

The District Dave forum has fantasy and realistic sub forums for this reason. I mentally label threads here on that basis.

Here's mine... How much money is spent on feasibility studies and the like, for line re-openings, which, with the best will in the world, aren't realistically going to happen?

And which MPs or community groups have spent the most money? On a positive note, which campaigners have pushed for a feasibility study which advocated (or showed a better case than expected) for reopenings that weren’t previously thought to be viable?

 

[Bald Rick]

I will never understand that. I wonder what would happen if they “just built it”. Would the sky fall in?

It would. The money would have to come from the existing Welsh budgets. Expect funding for the NHS and Education, and social care to be hit.

“Don’t worry Mum, that hip replacement is 3 years away now, but at least in 10 years’ time you will be able to catch a train to Lampeter. Although you‘ll have to pay, rather than use the bus for free”.

Etc.

 

[edwin_m]

I guess we have seen most of them before, thats the issue.

Yes there is the standard shuffling of rolling stock threads.

But several of them just seem to be "lets reopen this line Beeching closed" or "Lets miss out this major population centre so xxx tiny village can get 3 direct services to London per hour.

There is the frequent double decker train threads.

The frequent "my new sleeper train idea" threads.

I wonder whether we are just tired of the same old ideas being rehashed and frequently still not taking into account the real world situation of costs of running and constructing railways and often taking umbridge when the ideas are poo-pooed.

I guess do you want the ideas to be discussed from the perspective of enthusiasts or the railway professionals on the forum.

I think it's acceptable to not consider the real world situation because otherwise there's very little point of having a speculative thread in general. Having economics gatekeep visionary and theoretical thinking seems endearingly nihilistic.

I think its also perfectly acceptable to assume that given the vast majority of people on this forum probably dont have an industry level of knowledge, to approach speculative ideas as if they're just enthusiasts looking for connection. I think being rude and alienating people in an already niche community is just disingenuous.

I do get that sleeper train threads are quite popular lately and personally have never been an interest of mine, nor double deckers. But I suppose double decker trains is just one of those things that almost everyone has thought about whether they're enthusiasts or not.

Maybe speculative and fantasy need distinguishing? One tied to reality and one completely off the wall?

To me that's the answer. Under forum rules if a member wants to make a serious proposal for some infrastructure or service change, it has to go into the same sub-forum as ideas that are just being kicked around for the fun of it. It's not always obvious which is which.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I assume all ideas about electrification are more crayonista than fantasy?

 

[Railwaysceptic]

I guess we have seen most of them before, thats the issue.

Yes there is the standard shuffling of rolling stock threads.

But several of them just seem to be "lets reopen this line Beeching closed" or "Lets miss out this major population centre so xxx tiny village can get 3 direct services to London per hour.

There is the frequent double decker train threads.

The frequent "my new sleeper train idea" threads.

I wonder whether we are just tired of the same old ideas being rehashed and frequently still not taking into account the real world situation of costs of running and constructing railways and often taking umbridge when the ideas are poo-pooed.

I guess do you want the ideas to be discussed from the perspective of enthusiasts or the railway professionals on the forum.

A good post.

I'd like ideas to be suggested by sensible people who have a realistic view of how the railway can improve its contribution to both society in general and the national economy in particular. I'd then like them to be discussed by people who know what they're talking about.

 

[yorksrob]

But there will always be a disconnect between the extent to which railways can facilitate and enhance the economy and society, and the extent to which the Establishment is prepared to subsidise it.

Too often the Establishment line is portrayed as the only possible outcome, when we know from many countries that it is just political choice (often poor choice at that).

Fares are a good example.

There are many speculative proposals, ranging from off-peak Fridays, through national railcards, all the way to continental climate tickets. It's all pointless because we just get given the same regurgitated over-commercialised toot, whoever gets voted in, so its no wonder people get tired of posting.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Isn’t it as simple as that all the, ahem, ‘visionary’ ideas have been exhausted now?

I don't think so.

I've recently suggested that Huddersfield and Barnsley should have a direct service to London. I'd also suggest that the Durham Coast Line which serves four major conurbations should have those two 45 mph restrictions dealt with and a re-examination of what it would cost to raise the line speed to 90 mph. Within 10 minutes I could think of several more.

There are still numerous speculative ideas worth discussing.

 

[Bertie the bus]

I agree the best days of speculative ideas seem to have passed. On this forum, at least, there seems to be quite a gang of transport realists waiting in the wings to douse every new idea with buckets of cold water and cries of "crayonista". Nothing wrong with polite realism, but the level of derision that some apply seems a pity. This part of the forum is, I think, intended to be where you can play with ideas without being tied tightly to a business case!

There is speculation, i.e. where rolling stock might end up, will there be new orders for trains, which line might be in line for electrification, etc, and then there is pure fantasy. The problem seems to be some people who indulge in pure fantasy dress it up as speculation - i.e. there is at least some chance of it happening. If people wish to indulge in fantasy with like minded individuals perhaps they could make it clear in the thread title and then others would leave the thread alone.

 

[yoyothehobo]

There is speculation, i.e. where rolling stock might end up, will there be new orders for trains, which line might be in line for electrification, etc, and then there is pure fantasy. The problem seems to be some people who indulge in pure fantasy dress it up as speculation - i.e. there is at least some chance of it happening. If people wish to indulge in fantasy with like minded individuals perhaps they could make it clear in the thread title and then others would leave the thread alone.

I agree totally with this, sometimes you do get the "fantasy" heading but it is rare.

I think a lot of things posed in Speculative Ideas are also accompanied by phrases such as "Why cant we run a service between these two places, it cannot be that hard" at which point someone will point out why.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Edit:

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Dec 2024 ==

I agree totally with this, sometimes you do get the "fantasy" heading but it is rare.

I think a lot of things posed in Speculative Ideas are also accompanied by phrases such as "Why cant we run a service between these two places, it cannot be that hard" at which point someone will point out why.

It is astonishing how often an idea to run a service from St Pancras to Manchester Victoria will break several fundamental rules of the universe. For a layman it is infuriating and can seem absurd - but I get it. Nevertheless, I think an interesting conversation point which we don't discuss, is why our railways are in such a position that new ideas are almost nigh on impossible to implement and what solutions can be done to create a more expansionary railway system in the future. Almost every piece of track has no capacity or there's a junction somewhere along the line that absolutely cannot, ever, handle more trains. Why? What solutions are there to it? What can we do IF that problem didn't exist?

I feel that, ok. Your new London to Manchester service cannot be pathed through St Albans, but what if it could? Could we discuss that? I think the fact that we prefer not to suggests that the problem isn't necessarily balancing what is practical with what seems "interesting", but a more psychological problem stemming from an unwillingness to deviate from set managerial and administrative norms seen widely within government and public services.

 

[SynthD]

But there will always be a disconnect between the extent to which railways can facilitate and enhance the economy and society, and the extent to which the Establishment is prepared to subsidise it.

The DfT has flexibility on what benefit to cost ratio they require from a project, sometimes depending on what off-railway enhancements it has. These wider benefits are difficult to cost, and frequently come with high degree of supposed accuracy and detail (why this high?), which slows down the application and adds to the cost of this stage. Suggesting that lower BCRs should be accepted, or that the projected cost doesn’t match your estimate could move a thread from realistic to fantasy. We wouldn’t be surprised if a thread titled “What if the SNCF took over British railways” was moved.

 

[yorksrob]

The DfT has flexibility on what benefit to cost ratio they require from a project, sometimes depending on what off-railway enhancements it has. These wider benefits are difficult to cost, and frequently come with high degree of supposed accuracy and detail (why this high?), which slows down the application and adds to the cost of this stage. Suggesting that lower BCRs should be accepted, or that the projected cost doesn’t match your estimate could move a thread from realistic to fantasy. We wouldn’t be surprised if a thread titled “What if the SNCF took over British railways” was moved.

The DfT (or as likely the treasury) may have flexibility over the cost benefit ratio. We don't.

Even how that ratio is calculated is a political choice that we aren't party to.