With the next quarterly ORR usage figures due on Thursday morning (19th) covering Oct-Dec 2025, have extracted some data to offer some comparisons that can be compared to show how things have changed
All figures Oct-Dec, for years :
2011 (earliest complete quarterly data),
2015 (so can compare 10 years ago)
2019 (latest year before covid changes)
2024 (last year)
Table 1223 Passenger rail usage : 8.693m, 9.934m, 10.760m, 10.236m
Table 1233 Passenger Rail km : 826.5m, 898.0m, 961.8m, 859.1m
so by last year volumes already almost back to 2019 (and above 2011, 2015)
Dividing gives average distance travelled : 95.1 km, 90.4km, 89.4 km, 83.9 km
So passengers not travelling as far per journey on XC on average (but they have cut some longer workings)
Table 1243 Train Km : 8.128m, 8.166m, 8.1257m, 5.9934m
So until covid, stayed fairly constant, but down a quarter by 2024
Table 1253 Vehicle km : 35.827m, 35.614m, 35.164m, 29.281m
So again fairly constant 2011-2019 then a fall post covid
Dividing gives average train length : 4.41, 4.36, 4.33, 4.89 carriages
If divide passenger km by vehicle km, gives average number of passengers
23.07, 25.21, 27.35, 29.34 passenger km per vehicle km
so has been a 27% rise over 14 years which is why trains seem more crowded, or in blunt terms because XC has cut its mileage operated (but not overall how far it carries passengers) it is now squeezing 5 passengers into space they previously allocated to 4 passengers.
I cannot believe DfT have suggested need to put 5 people in every 4 seat seating bay, but that is what XC have done in numerical terms., (of course in practice standing has become norm on some sections), because XC is still operating same type of trains as 15 years ago (and typically only average 4.3-4.9 carriages long)
Hopefully these figures will be useful Thursday when 2025 figures are published by ORR (wo normally only give a one year change)