Another by-election (Copeland)

[northwichcat]

Copeland MP Jamie Reed (a Labour MP and Corbyn critic) has stood down to take a job in the nuclear industry. At the last general election Labour got around 1,600 more votes than the Conservatives.

 

[miami]

This will be an interesting view of Corbyns lead. If Labour lose this then he needs to go.

 

[90sWereBetter]

This will be an interesting view of Corbyns lead. If Labour lose this then he needs to go.

No, no, no, you've got it all wrong. It's the fault of those evil Blairite coup plotters if Labour lose here. They should all go join the Tories! Corbyn would be 10 points ahead in the polls if not for those Red Tory scum. (am I doing a good enough impression here? )

This looks like being the most intriguing by-election since...Richmond Park? :P But yes, it's a test of Corbyn's Labour, seeing if the Tories are really that far ahead in the polls, if Paul Nuttall can repurpose UKIP to win over Labour voters, and if the #LibDemFightback really is a thing, given Copeland voted something around 60% leave in the referendum.

I'm tempted to stick a fiver on the Lib Dems winning or coming second. The seat is right next to Tim Farron's constituency, so there will be plenty of local Lib Dem campaigning for sure.

 

[Howardh]

No, no, no, you've got it all wrong. It's the fault of those evil Blairite coup plotters if Labour lose here. They should all go join the Tories! Corbyn would be 10 points ahead in the polls if not for those Red Tory scum. (am I doing a good enough impression here? )

This looks like being the most intriguing by-election since...Richmond Park? :P But yes, it's a test of Corbyn's Labour, seeing if the Tories are really that far ahead in the polls, if Paul Nuttall can repurpose UKIP to win over Labour voters, and if the #LibDemFightback really is a thing, given Copeland voted something around 60% leave in the referendum.

I'm tempted to stick a fiver on the Lib Dems winning or coming second. The seat is right next to Tim Farron's constituency, so there will be plenty of local Lib Dem campaigning for sure.

Doubt that. We are deep into Leave territory, and the Libdems only chance is to gather all the remain votes from the Tories and Labour, and hope the rest get split three ways. BUT there is a chance of a significant Libdem jump from the appalling result last time, maybe even double to triple their vote.
If the Libdems came second, I'd take that as a huge win!

 

[northwichcat]

Looking at previous elections it seems the SDP used to get a respectable share of the votes for Copeland but since the Lib Dems were formed they've never done as well. It's also an area where minority right wing parties like the BNP and the English Democrats have managed to have a candidate who has retained their deposit.

 

[miami]

Doubt that. We are deep into Leave territory, and the Libdems only chance is to gather all the remain votes from the Tories and Labour, and hope the rest get split three ways. BUT there is a chance of a significant Libdem jump from the appalling result last time, maybe even double to triple their vote.
If the Libdems came second, I'd take that as a huge win!

If it's 60% leave 40% remain, and if those remain people were to vote for lib dem, then there's a possible chance that it will go lib dem (Labour only managed 42% last time, including many remain voters)

However that is not going to happen. If the Lib Dems get 15% of the vote that would be a good victory for them. 10% would be a return to 2010 form. If they come 3rd that would be good for them, but very surprising.

The Tories have a chance to win this, but for UKIP and Labour the results really are a make-or-break. If UKIP drop down below 10% (they got 15% last time) then that would be bad for them, they'll likely have peaked as a party managing to get 1 MP. If Labour lose will be very bad, possibly even existential, for them (They've held this seat and it's predecessor since 1935)

 

[EbbwJunction1]

For the record, here are the figures for the last two General Elections:

General Election 2015: Copeland

Party Candidate Votes % ±

Labour Jamie Reed 16,750 42.3 −3.7
Conservative Stephen Haraldsen 14,186 35.8 −1.3
UKIP Michael Pye 6,148 15.5 +13.2
Liberal Democrat Danny Gallagher 1,368 3.5 −6.7
Green Allan Todd 1,179 3.0 +2.1
Majority 2,564 6.5 −2.4
Turnout 39,631 63.8 −3.8
Labour hold Swing −1.2

General Election 2010: Copeland

Party Candidate Votes % ±

Labour Jamie Reed 19,699 46.0 -4.5
Conservative Chris Whiteside 15,866 37.1 +6.4
Liberal Democrat Frank Hollowell 4,365 10.2 -1.3
BNP Clive Jefferson 1,474 3.4 N/A
UKIP Edward Caley-Knowles 994 2.3 +0.1
Green Jill Perry 389 0.9 N/A
Majority 3,833 8.9 -9.9
Turnout 42,787 67.6 +5.4
Labour hold Swing -4.9

I'll leave it to others to discuss these figures and what they mean.

 

[Busaholic]

It'll be interesting to see who Labour select as their candidate. Dr. Jack Cunningham was the MP here from 1983 until 2005, and he was probably the most right-wing of all Labour MPs for much of his time in parliament. Jamie Reed inherited his mantle, which was therefore cut from the same cloth. I cannot see the local constituency accepting a Corbynite candidate, but we shall see. Whatever happens, even if Labour win and increase their majority, I can see this being presented by the media as a whole as a rejection of Corbynite politics, however unfair that may be. Will Labour select a Brexiteer?
That could make for an interesting scenario. Note how LibDems were annihilated here last year, but UKIP went from nowhere to somewhere.

 

[northwichcat]

but UKIP went from nowhere to somewhere.

Presumably helped by the BNP (who had done better than UKIP) not putting a candidate forward in the most recent election.

 

[Butts]

It'll be interesting to see who Labour select as their candidate. Dr. Jack Cunningham was the MP here from 1983 until 2005, and he was probably the most right-wing of all Labour MPs for much of his time in parliament. Jamie Reed inherited his mantle, which was therefore cut from the same cloth. I cannot see the local constituency accepting a Corbynite candidate, but we shall see. Whatever happens, even if Labour win and increase their majority, I can see this being presented by the media as a whole as a rejection of Corbynite politics, however unfair that may be. Will Labour select a Brexiteer?
That could make for an interesting scenario. Note how LibDems were annihilated here last year, but UKIP went from nowhere to somewhere.

I remember Jack Cunningham, he was a very likeable guy. During the eighties he was often on the panel during By-Election specials etc manfuly trying to talk up yet another woeful Labour performance.

 

[tbtc]

It'll be interesting to see who Labour select as their candidate

Good point.

We didn't have a by-election that changed hands between Louise Mensch leaving Corby in 2012 until the recent Richmond one (arguments about the two defectors from UKIP to the Tories notwithstanding), so they've been fairly meaningless.

Since Corbyn took over, Labour had some very easy seats to defend - traditional Metropolitan Greater Manchester (Oldham West), probably the safest seat in the UK (Sheffield Hillsborough/ Brightside, where Labour have always won over 50% of the vote), Bridgend (always going to be fairly safe Labour territory), Tooting (Sadiq Khan leaving behind a popular legacy) then the well documented Batley & Spen (no Tory/ LibDem presence).

So the 'Corbyn has won every by-election since his leadership" argument gained momentum, though all of them were seats Labour should never have been in danger of losing.

Witney, Richmond and Sleaford though... no impact whatsoever.

So, does the guy who railed against previous leaders parachuting candidates into seats allow the local party to choose their own candidate? Because Copeland has had 'moderate" Labour candidates in the past - I'm not sure they'll go for a "Momentum" member. Maybe having a candidate from the "Red Tory Blairite Scum" wing of the party will at least give him an excuse if they lose the seat?

I suppose the other question is whether the "Brexit" vote gets split between the Tories/ UKIP or if it'll go predominantly to one party. They got over half the vote last year (36% Tory, 15% UKIP), so an A-list candidate could beat Labour (42% last time).

It'll certainly be the most interesting by-election since Corby/ Bradford West in 2012 - I'm just not confident that Labour will be able to hold it.

 

[Busaholic]

Good point.

We didn't have a by-election that changed hands between Louise Mensch leaving Corby in 2012 until the recent Richmond one (arguments about the two defectors from UKIP to the Tories notwithstanding), so they've been fairly meaningless.

Since Corbyn took over, Labour had some very easy seats to defend - traditional Metropolitan Greater Manchester (Oldham West), probably the safest seat in the UK (Sheffield Hillsborough/ Brightside, where Labour have always won over 50% of the vote), Bridgend (always going to be fairly safe Labour territory), Tooting (Sadiq Khan leaving behind a popular legacy) then the well documented Batley & Spen (no Tory/ LibDem presence).

So the 'Corbyn has won every by-election since his leadership" argument gained momentum, though all of them were seats Labour should never have been in danger of losing.

Witney, Richmond and Sleaford though... no impact whatsoever.

So, does the guy who railed against previous leaders parachuting candidates into seats allow the local party to choose their own candidate? Because Copeland has had 'moderate" Labour candidates in the past - I'm not sure they'll go for a "Momentum" member. Maybe having a candidate from the "Red Tory Blairite Scum" wing of the party will at least give him an excuse if they lose the seat?

I suppose the other question is whether the "Brexit" vote gets split between the Tories/ UKIP or if it'll go predominantly to one party. They got over half the vote last year (36% Tory, 15% UKIP), so an A-list candidate could beat Labour (42% last time).

It'll certainly be the most interesting by-election since Corby/ Bradford West in 2012 - I'm just not confident that Labour will be able to hold it.

Another factor is when MPs stand down for personal reasons/ job advancement etc and there can be a backlash against the party that held the seat e.g. the Mensch example you quote, possibly even an element of it with Goldsmith, even if the backlash only consists of abstentions.

Whoever Labour picks will surely for local reasons have to be prepared to advocate the viability of nuclear power at the very least : it might be possible to find a Momentum member with a chance of winning who enshrines this value, or is prepared to state thus but they're probably few and far between. I agree with you, this will prove to be an interesting contest. I wonder how long Labour will be able to put it off for!

 

[northwichcat]

Since Corbyn took over, Labour had some very easy seats to defend - traditional Metropolitan Greater Manchester (Oldham West), probably the safest seat in the UK (Sheffield Hillsborough/ Brightside, where Labour have always won over 50% of the vote), Bridgend (always going to be fairly safe Labour territory), Tooting (Sadiq Khan leaving behind a popular legacy) then the well documented Batley & Spen (no Tory/ LibDem presence).

So the 'Corbyn has won every by-election since his leadership" argument gained momentum, though all of them were seats Labour should never have been in danger of losing.

I think a by-election of a seat traditionally held by Labour which is now held by a Conservative e.g. Weaver Vale or Crewe & Nantwich would be the real test for Labour. Those were the kind of seats Labour needed to win to prevent to Conservatives getting in to government in 2015 but they failed to win most of them back. Even with the ones they did win back they only just managed it e.g. they won Chester by getting 93 more votes than the Conservatives and Wirral West by 417 more votes than the Conservatives.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

No, no, no, you've got it all wrong. It's the fault of those evil Blairite coup plotters if Labour lose here. They should all go join the Tories! Corbyn would be 10 points ahead in the polls if not for those Red Tory scum. (am I doing a good enough impression here? )

This looks like being the most intriguing by-election since...Richmond Park? :P But yes, it's a test of Corbyn's Labour, seeing if the Tories are really that far ahead in the polls, if Paul Nuttall can repurpose UKIP to win over Labour voters, and if the #LibDemFightback really is a thing, given Copeland voted something around 60% leave in the referendum.

I'm tempted to stick a fiver on the Lib Dems winning or coming second. The seat is right next to Tim Farron's constituency, so there will be plenty of local Lib Dem campaigning for sure.

I agree with the first two paragraphs almost in entirety. I'd say it'll be an interesting gauge of each of the respective parties.

However, I'd be putting my fiver on the Tories rather than the Lib Dems to win

 

[edwin_m]

I agree with the first two paragraphs almost in entirety. I'd say it'll be an interesting gauge of each of the respective parties.

However, I'd be putting my fiver on the Tories rather than the Lib Dems to win

Can't see the Lib Dems winning with their current pro-European stance and anti-nuclear heritage. But if they get a good result it will be a sign that the prospect of Brexit has cut through all existing party loyalties in a very different constituency from Richmond Park. If so it is bad news for Labour, whose policy on Europe has dithered enough that most people don't know what it is let alone agreeing with it, but also for the Tories who are essentially ignoring the large Remain faction nationally.