Alternative class 321 history

[JonathanH]

Indeed. When the Class 360's were bought to replace the Class 312's, they weren't what FGE actually wanted - FGE wanted more Class 321's (and Eversholt were keen to provide) but Silverlink wouldn't release them and the nomadic 322's weren't enough on their own, so they had no choice but to buy new.

Eversholt eventually (years later) got their wish to consolidate all the 321/322 fleet in one place in East Anglia but sadly, politics and the ridiculous way franchise bidding meant rolling stock cost books get cooked, means that has now resulted in the entire fleet having no home...

An interesting question here about how Silverlink could feasibly released 321s in 2003 to avoid Great Eastern, as it was then, having to take on 21 360s.

Silverlink had 37 321s at the time but it was some while later before the 350/1 fleet was procured and even that was the by-product of a fairly speculative 5-car 450 order for South West Trains that had to be diverted when plans fell through.

If 25 321s had gone from Silverlink to Great Eastern to replace 312s, the problem suggested of non-standard 360s would have arisen at Silverlink along with a micro fleet of 12 321s.

Later, London Midland got 37 350/2s to replace the 37 321s which were meant to go to Great Northern, Greater Anglia and c2c. The c2c transfer didn't happen which resulted in 7 321s staying at London Midland but that was much later.

I guess the big question is whether, with 100% 321 operation on Greater Anglia, a full Renatus upgrade would have happened with stock replacement deferred for another ten years.

 

[CDM]

I guess the big question is whether, with 100% 321 operation on Greater Anglia, a full Renatus upgrade would have happened with stock replacement deferred for another ten years.

100% 321 operation on GE (rather than GA - there wouldn't have been enough to replace the 61 Cl.317's)
But either way, it wouldn't have made any difference, imo:
NX weren't interested at all investing in the fleet for a refurb during their franchise and then the Abellio franchises kept being short length ones - so the decision would always have been kicked into the franchise bid that ultimately resulted in the 720's being ordered.
And that franchise specification was all around "new train" and 'maximum seat capacity', which immediately killed Renatus.
Renatus could achieve 'new train' spec and was faster to deliver, cheaper to deliver and cheaper to operate, but it couldn't compete on seats compared the 5 and fixed 10-car Cl.720.
(Of course, those extra seats aren't now required but we are way too far down the line by the time that became reality. )

 

[Magdalia]

The financial situation was very different before the 2008 crash. Interest rates were high, which meant that new stock was expensive to build and lease costs on new stock were high. Franchises that already had sliding door stock hung onto it, franchises that had to replace slam door stock had to suck up the higher lease costs of new trains.

Silverlink had sliding door stock but needed new and faster trains once pathing on the WCML became a big issue. There was a big bunfight for the class 321s that were released. The original allocation was 10 to FCC, 10 to C2C and the remainder to what is now GA. But FCC was under huge capacity pressure, at the time it had 6 of the top 10 most overcrowded trains on the network, while Silverlink had an unanswered question about what to use on the St Albans Abbey branch. C2C got squeezed out, with 7 of their 10 staying at Silverlink and 3 going to FCC.

The market took a while to adjust to lower interest rates hence the high lease costs on the class 379s. But in recent years, other things being equal, it has been cheaper to finance new trains than to refurbish existing fleets.

 

[JonathanH]

Indeed, but the specific quotation raised by the OP was about a possible 2003 transfer of 321s to Great Eastern, not the well versed 2009 transfer. I note that higher performance units may have been more suited to the WCML even in 2004 if the Railtrack upgrade had gone to plan.

 

[Magdalia]

Only possible if Silverlink were prepared to tear up their contract for the class 321s, in 2003 they had no incentive to do that.

And even if Silverlink had released the class 321s in 2003, there could have been a 2009 style bunfight, which Great Eastern may not have won.