Alliance Rail GNWR Services Approved

[cle]

Queens Park is such an easy change onto the Bakerloo, which often starts from there so will have capacity. Certain Central London locations would be quicker from there than via Euston... not least Paddington and Crossrail (and thus maybe Heathrow).

I'm surprised LM aren't trying to path some stops there on their services, if they could.

 

[CosherB]

They won't be Class 390s, but I guess will be more akin to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70e-n82WijA

 

[thenorthern]

Problem is with Queen's Park is its not designed as a terminal station and could it cope with a long train terminating at the station several times per day?

 

[ainsworth74]

Problem is with Queen's Park is its not designed as a terminal station and could it cope with a long train terminating at the station several times per day?

They're not going to be that long 6-car I seem to recall of the top of my head.

 

[absolutelymilk]

I think they have mentioned they will look into using Queen's Park as their London terminus if they don't get to use London Euston.

Yes, they have firm rights to use Queen's Park, but contingent rights to use Euston (as long as HS2 rebuilding work doesn't leave it without enough capacity). My question was whether they would pull the order if they didn't get Euston (as Philip Phlopp seemed to be implying)

 

[Philip Phlopp]

They won't be Class 390s, but I guess will be more akin to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70e-n82WijA

That's, from memory, the Pendolino design for NTV - Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori, essentially a GNWR type operation in Italy.

The plan at one time was to make use of the existing Pendolino bodyshell design and technical specification but with a new cab and crash cell for the driver, making use of non retractable coupler heads as part of the design changes.

That was part of the plan for the shortened Pendolino sets that Virgin proposed for their aborted ICWC bid.

 

[northwichcat]

They won't be Class 390s, but I guess will be more akin to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70e-n82WijA

I thought Alliance had twisted Alstom's arm for a small fleet of 6 car 390s type trains - Alstom aren't that keen on the idea but have given Alliance a cost for it and apparently told to place an order soon, otherwise it'll cost them a lot more.

 

[ag51ruk]

Problem is with Queen's Park is its not designed as a terminal station and could it cope with a long train terminating at the station several times per day?

I don't think it even has lifts to the fast (slow) line platforms, which isn't ideal

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Yes, they have firm rights to use Queen's Park, but contingent rights to use Euston (as long as HS2 rebuilding work doesn't leave it without enough capacity). My question was whether they would pull the order if they didn't get Euston (as Philip Phlopp seemed to be implying)

I'd guess it'll depend on the business case.

Open access train paths generally cease to exist at some point if they're unused or the requirements of the paths are unfulfilled. The slots, if they exist, could well be exercised by the ROSCO in question and the stock leased by the incoming ICWC franchisee.

2 x 6 car Pendolino sets are viable for Euston with coupling/spitting at Crewe for example, pathing requirements in and out of Euston wouldn't increase, though I would expect any announcement in that direction to be accompanied by a confirmation Crewe to Chester at the very least is to be electrified.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

They won't be Class 390s, but I guess will be more akin to this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70e-n82WijA

I can't see an order for 4 (or whatever number it is) of those being economic, either for Alstom or Alliance (DB/Arriva).
You'd need a fleet of 10-15 to give a critical mass.
Their ECML Pendolino proposal was refused, and there aren't going to be any new orders for ICWC before the new franchise.
Then there's Brexit...

 

[Philip Phlopp]

I thought Alliance had twisted Alstom's arm for a small fleet of 6 car 390s type trains - Alstom aren't that keen on the idea but have given Alliance a cost for it and apparently told to place an order soon, otherwise it'll cost them a lot more.

Alstom had slots available and would do Pendolino sets at near cost price to cover a quiet period between large orders for Savigliano. They were trying to get other Pendolino orders too from UK ROSCOs.

 

[The Planner]

Provisional order has been made (so I hear) but Queens Park to Euston is still unresolved.

I think as a result GNWR (or their supporting ROSCO) has slots booked on the Alstom line at Savigliano, but hasn't yet exercised those rights. They won't do so until they get paths into Euston.

I would have expected them to be shouting from the roof tops if they had ordered rolling stock. I expect they will get the paths to Euston somehow, I know its been looked at again.

 

[miami]

Then there's Brexit...

Assuming that the manufacturing costs of the new trains are mainly euros, then brexit will have probably killed off the proposal -- if it was going to cost €14m for a train back in devember, that would be £10m. It's now £12m - 20% higher rolling stock cost.

 

[thenorthern]

Then there's Brexit...

Assuming that the manufacturing costs of the new trains are mainly euros, then brexit will have probably killed off the proposal -- if it was going to cost €14m for a train back in devember, that would be £10m. It's now £12m - 20% higher rolling stock cost.

Whatever happens as Washwood Heath has closed and both Hitachi Newton Aycliffe and Bombardier Derby have no experience of building tilting trains (Voyagers were built in Belgium) I would say with almost certainty that the trains that GNWR are wanting won't be built in the United Kingdom regardless of Brexit.

 

[swt_passenger]

I would have expected them to be shouting from the roof tops if they had ordered rolling stock. I expect they will get the paths to Euston somehow, I know its been looked at again.

It won't help the overall case (for any open access operator) if even when paths are awarded the rolling stock is never ordered. GC presumably hoped to 'piggy back' the trains on their ECML open access stock, subsequently turned down as we now know.


--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Problem is with Queen's Park is its not designed as a terminal station and could it cope with a long train terminating at the station several times per day?

In the depths of the correspondence between ORR and interested parties there is a statement that GNWR would fund any necessary improvements to Queens Park if required...

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Assuming that the manufacturing costs of the new trains are mainly euros, then brexit will have probably killed off the proposal -- if it was going to cost €14m for a train back in devember, that would be £10m. It's now £12m - 20% higher rolling stock cost.

I was actually thinking more of the interest DB would now have in investing in a marginal operation in the UK, but you are right about the costs.
The same equation will hit Bombardier and Hitachi though, as most of the value of their trains is also imported.
Assuming we are talking about a new Pendolino design (ie not a clone of the 390), then tooling up for a UK version of only 4 units is surely not viable?

 

[Ianno87]

I don't think it even has lifts to the fast (slow) line platforms, which isn't ideal

Where would the Disability Discrimination Act stand if a 'new' service were effectively barred to those who cannot manage stairs?

Would a get out be that intending passengers would continue to use the existing West Coast services into Euston as an alternative? Or would Alliance be required to fund lift/ramp access at Queens Park should they not gain access to Euston?

 

[Mordac]

Assuming that the manufacturing costs of the new trains are mainly euros, then brexit will have probably killed off the proposal -- if it was going to cost €14m for a train back in devember, that would be £10m. It's now £12m - 20% higher rolling stock cost.

I assume GNWR has someone who knows what they're doing in their finance department, and will have hedged against currency risk with appropriate futures or options.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I assume GNWR has someone who knows what they're doing in their finance department, and will have hedged against currency risk with appropriate futures or options.

Given that it's Arriva, they will have bigger problems with the recent CAF order for Northern, not to mention DfT and the Siemens class 70x contracts.
It will be the ROSCOs taking the main risk.

 

[northwichcat]

Given that it's Arriva, they will have bigger problems with the recent CAF order for Northern, not to mention DfT and the Siemens class 70x contracts.
It will be the ROSCOs taking the main risk.

Indeed. The ROSCOs will have priced leasing costs so they expect to recover the build cost over around 1/2 the lifetime of the train, so a change in value of the pound compared to the euro will mean it'll take them longer to cover the cost of the build, opposed to them not making a profit over the life of the train.

 

[Mordac]

Again, currency risk can be easily hedged against, and will have been by any competent finance department for any pre-existing contract.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Again, currency risk can be easily hedged against, and will have been by any competent finance department for any pre-existing contract.

You can be sure that, either way, the customer will pay.
Our rail industry exports very little, so devaluation is a net outlow.
Expect new train costs to rise resulting in fewer vehicles being bought.

 

[northwichcat]

RAIL reported the 281 vehicles for Northern would cost £490m (£1.7m per vehicle), CAF reported it as €740m so it seems the historical rate of £1=€1.50 was used.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

(Almost) back to square 1 for GNWR services to Blackpool.
http://www.alliancerail.co.uk/projects

Despite the best efforts of many parties, including manufacturer ALSTOM and the DfT, Alliance has been unable to secure the necessary access to Class 390 tilting rolling stock to enable it to deliver its full Blackpool – Euston service as approved by the ORR in 2015.
As a result Alliance and the ORR has agreed that its contract to run services will lapse on 30 June 2017.
In its place Alliance is seeking new approvals to operate the same number of [6] daily services between Blackpool and Euston starting in the first half of 2019 using electric Class 91 and Mark 4 rolling stock currently in use on the ECML. Positive discussions with leasing company Eversholt have been on-going for some time, and services would operate with 7 passenger vehicles.
These trains have a design speed of 140mph, but initially services would be restricted to 110mph while further work is undertaken on the route speed profile for non-tilt.
In order to maintain competitive end to end journey times of around 3 hours, the stopping pattern has unfortunately had to be reduced, with trains now calling only at Preston, Nuneaton and Milton Keynes on the main line. Stops in all services at Poulton-le-Fylde and Kirkham & Wesham, an important part of the original ORR decision, are maintained

So ORR/NR have to pronounce on a new application using IC225 stock.
I can't think NR will look kindly on increasing the WCML line speed for a few non-tilt services.
Mentioning 140mph capability is also fatuous when there is no plan for ETCS on the route.
The whole thing is dependent on IEP rollout to cascade IC225s, so not before 2019.

I guess a handful of new Pendolinos was unaffordable now that other orders have not materialised which would have restarted the manufacturing process.
Another casualty of WCML franchise policy and its repeated 2-year extensions.

 

[swt_passenger]

(Almost) back to square 1 for GNWR services to Blackpool.
http://www.alliancerail.co.uk/projects


So ORR/NR have to pronounce on a new application using IC225 stock.
I can't think NR will look kindly on increasing the WCML line speed for a few non-tilt services.
Mentioning 140mph capability is also fatuous when there is no plan for ETCS on the route.
The whole thing is dependent on IEP rollout to cascade IC225s, so not before 2019.

I guess a handful of new Pendolinos was unaffordable now that other orders have not materialised which would have restarted the manufacturing process.
Another casualty of WCML franchise policy and its repeated 2-year extensions.

A new thread was started about this (and Virgin's plans) last week;

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=148297

Could probably have been usefully combined with this one though...

 

[zn1]

alliance may be better off trying to get a few 110mph electrostars at the end of the build line.., or some desiros kit them out for regional use, and just going for 110 mph operating..

Put a small buffet in the guards office area of the desiro..it would be better to get these than spending money on the 225 fleet and attempting to fit the tilt packs,

 

[HLE]

It doesn't say they are planning to fit them with tilt equipment - quite the opposite is how I read it. Don't think the mk4's were ever designed for tilt in the first place

The now planned 2019 start date is disappointing to say the least.

 

[rebmcr]

Mentioning 140mph capability is also fatuous when there is no plan for ETCS on the route.

Yes, Virgin already tried 140MPH but were told that TASS is not cab signalling.

It doesn't say they are planning to fit them with tilt equipment - quite the opposite is how I read it. Don't think the mk4's were ever designed for tilt in the first place.

They're not planning to, and noone ever will, but as APT variants they were built with passive provision (bogie mounts and sloping sidewalls).

 

[robertclark125]

The Mk4s were designed for a possible tilting mechanism to be retrofitted.

One other thing about the Alliance plans, using class 91s is dependant not just on available 91s, but also providing the juice is switched on from Preston to Blackpool.

 

[Elecman]

The Mk4s were designed for a possible tilting mechanism to be retrofitted.

One other thing about the Alliance plans, using class 91s is dependant not just on available 91s, but also providing the juice is switched on from Preston to Blackpool.

As is the Virgin version!M