This MAY well stem from incompetence but it is frightfully convenient for the operator isn't it.
GA know full well that they have the upper hand here regardless of whether passengers have done something wrong deliberately, accidentally, under the advice of GA themselves or have done nothing wrong at all. They know they can essentially do whatever they want, say whatever they want, write whatever they want in order to recover as much money that they've paid out as they can. It comes across as if it is of little interest to them whether that money was claimed correctly, in good faith, or fraudulently, the primary aim is to recover as much money as they can.
There's certain things we know, and that GA also know.
* Very few people, as low as 30% in some cases actually claim delay repay in the first place. So a fair sized benefit to GA here from the outset.
* GA DO reject a fair number of claims, some (comparatively small no doubt) of these are valid claims leaving the passenger without compensation they are entitled to.
* GA Know full well that when they reject valid claims, a fair number of the passengers will NOT appeal this decision. This is a small win for them and provides no incentive to improve.
* GA Know that the longer they wait, the less chance there is of a passenger having evidence to prove they were on a particular train on a particular day.
* GA Know that many passengers aren't particularly knowledgeable with the system and that it could be easy to make a mistake with a complicated journey involving a missed connection.
* GA Know that by sending letters out with minimal information it will get people to pay up, even if it is not due.
* GA Know that if someone questions it they can threaten them with the police in an attempt to get them to settle. This WILL work in many cases, even when it is not due.
* GA Know that their relationship with the police and the courts is, by default, better than that of their passengers and there is an immediate initial bias in their favour.
* Many passengers know that they do not START in a good place with the police or a court should they not be able to prove where they were on the day.
* GA Know that passengers won't want the potential risk of losing, even if they have done nothing wrong.
* GA Know that anyone who settles (whether it was due or not) is unlikely to risk claiming delay repay ever again, this may be a win per case to GA of hundreds of pounds per year.
* GA Know that anyone who fights them stands little chance of winning but fi they do, the absolute worst case for GA is they don't get the money back.
* GA Know that those people will be less likely to claim again also.
I think we need to remember the difference in claim types when we talk about why they didn't reject them in the first place. What we need to look at is how the DR system interprets data, and what data it has access to, and what it can use to compare to make a decision. If the 1600 arrival arrives at 1637 and a passenger who claims to be travelling on that train puts in a claim for that train then if the system has no link to any other data, it should (and in most cases will) accept this as a valid claim and pay out. If they claimed to be on the 1700 arrival which arrived at 1703, it should reject this. I don't think this system is faulty here, it is still accepting and rejecting claims based on the running information in most cases. (There will always be rejection for valid claims with complicated routes, missed connections, double missed connections almost always get rejected, it's poor, its unacceptable but it doesn't appear to be related to this issue here).
It appears that GA have taken the data and have then linked it to smart card tap in and out data to validate the claims, this topic has been through the potential issues with that, and i'm not buying the suggestion that GA might have overlooked those, they're not stupid, but ignoring these WILL be more financially rewarding. Adding in "above average" claims is truly abysmal, you're, by default, causing more headaches for those who have suffered the most, although it appears to have yielded good solid results. GA aren't stupid enough to understand that the whole concept of the average being where it is is BECAUSE some people have claimed more, they're just using it to their advantage using the knowledge from the bullet points above.
If they started with 2021 claims and started linking up smart card data to test this i don't think anyone would have a real problem with it (other than those, of which there are a couple here, that seem to think that they should never try to recover money that they are due) but to be going back to 2019 knowing how difficult it is (see above) for people to prove otherwise is incredibly poor.
I am interested to see how this pans out in the long term. I'm not aware of anyone that has come here that is firmly standing their ground but i'd be interested to know just how far they will push these people who have done nothing wrong. I'd also be interested to know what happens when someone goes to court for it as i am still not convinced that on a charge of non payment of funds (not fraud) they'd almost certainly be guilty until proven innocent, with the same benefit of the 2 year gap.