Aber hourly service,warning.

[merlodlliw]

for info

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-12504251

Bob

 

[The Planner]

Did you really really expect it to be hourly all day ??

 

[merlodlliw]

Did you really really expect it to be hourly all day ??

of course not, but it has to be kept on the boil. As usual ATW have no further comment,

Just off to vote no, as Ieuan says vote yes to more powers for Wag

 

[cle]

Anything extra is good surely - and if it's successful, demand will lead to more services.

 

[merlodlliw]

Anything extra is good surely - and if it's successful, demand will lead to more services.

Hopefully so, I know a lot of pressure is being applied,the point about the
infrastructure almost in place at a cost of £Ms, without any extra services will be one to push, the delay with ertms etc seems to have suited the Minister.


Bob

 

[tbtc]

It'd be naive to assume there were suddenly going to be spare trains available to run additional services throught the day, surely?

Every improvement gets treated as a backwards step

 

[cle]

It'd be naive to assume there were suddenly going to be spare trains available to run additional services throught the day, surely?

Every improvement gets treated as a backwards step

Could turning a few journeys short at Shrewbury help? And then alternating Aber trains between Shrewsbury and Birmingham?

Might not be as popular, but might be more efficient to squeeze out a higher frequency with the available units?

Then again, you'd want at least Wolves for the London trains, now that WSMR are no more... Or are flows more to the north, in which case the Manchester train at Shrewsbury is the one to meet?

 

[4SRKT]

It'd be naive to assume there were suddenly going to be spare trains available to run additional services throught the day, surely?

Every improvement gets treated as a backwards step

But the article says the extras would be at peaks. If there are spare sets at peak, they'll be available all day.

Maybe running the Pwllheli trains from Shrewsbury (or Crewe) on the alternate hour from the Aberystwyth would be a half way house, rather than doubling them up to Machynlleth. This wouldn't need any more sets, and would remove the instability associated late running on portioning/joining trains. You'd get an hourly service as far as Machylleth as well, although no extra seats. Maybe it would even be possible if the thing were timetabled right to get an out and back from Aber to Dovey or Mach for connections into the Pwllheli > Shrewsbury working.

 

[Gareth Marston]

According to the BBC hack who called me a couple of weeks back a WAG Press Officer had given him the impression the hourly service announcement was imminent and he was seeing if I had more info! I had to disappoint him - he then back to WAG Press Office found Press Officer 1 on Annual Leave then Press Officer 2 gave him a pessimistic Westminster has cut the money off spin line. PO1 then comes back from hols and says ignore PO2 WAG remains committed to hourly service blah blah and announcement in due course once the budget settlement implication are sorted out. (Which Meroldlliw will no doubt tell us is see how many penny's are left after Anglesey has been catered for!) In between I had spoke to Hack once more and sent press statement to him. Needless to say what he said I I said was all out of order, out of context and with chunks missing.

For the record 2 extra UP's in the AM and 2 extra DOWNS in the PM would be lovely jubbly.

As I've said before the extra rolling stock is the 2 158's currently doing Cheltenham to Maesteg which will be freed up once the 150/2's on sub lease to FGW are returned to ATW following the LM 150 Cascade.

 

[tbtc]

But the article says the extras would be at peaks. If there are spare sets at peak, they'll be available all day.

Maybe running the Pwllheli trains from Shrewsbury (or Crewe) on the alternate hour from the Aberystwyth would be a half way house, rather than doubling them up to Machynlleth. This wouldn't need any more sets, and would remove the instability associated late running on portioning/joining trains. You'd get an hourly service as far as Machylleth as well, although no extra seats. Maybe it would even be possible if the thing were timetabled right to get an out and back from Aber to Dovey or Mach for connections into the Pwllheli > Shrewsbury working.

I agree with you about running alternate services west of Shrewsbury..

I was suggesting that units may not be available all day for maintenance etc, a lot of TOCs (and bus companies etc) have vehicles used in the busy peak, then maintain them off peak etc)

 

[Gareth Marston]

I agree with you about running alternate services west of Shrewsbury..

I was suggesting that units may not be available all day for maintenance etc, a lot of TOCs (and bus companies etc) have vehicles used in the busy peak, then maintain them off peak etc)

ATW are cautious about going hourly to start off with as no one has tried over 82 miles of single track with passing loops- the timings of units coming off the coast and Aberystwyth between Dovey Junction and Machynlleth are the crunch point.

Alternate services would be OK if your still in the catering for the non time critical leisure market mode, but the demand/driver as far as many in Southern Gwyneed and Northern Ceredigion is concerned is the connections between coast and Aberystwyth (there's jobs in center of Aber). I cant see alternate catering for that. Also 40% of the current coast traffic is the schoolchildren and currently they use trains that join up/split at Mach with Aber ones.

 

[4SRKT]

Then run an hourly 2-car set to Aberystwyth from Shrewsbury and make all coast passengers change at Mach, rather than having a 4 car set every 2 hours doing the split. No more sets required if you time it right: you'd have to pass up and down Abers at Mach anyway to get an hourly service, which means not much time to get to Aber and back, so intensively used sets.

OTOH an alternate service could pass at Welshpool and Talerddig, because half an hour west of Talerddig is beyond Dovey Jn so no passing required.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Then run an hourly 2-car set to Aberystwyth from Shrewsbury and make all coast passengers change at Mach, rather than having a 4 car set every 2 hours doing the split. No more sets required if you time it right: you'd have to pass up and down Abers at Mach anyway to get an hourly service, which means not much time to get to Aber and back, so intensively used sets.

Your naturally going to have a heavier demand on the trains that connect with the coast esp at peak times, holidays, etc. The question is will 2 cars between Mach and Salop really be sufficient? Agree on a Wet Wednesday afternoon in January but the Cambrian is full of mini peaks throughout the year in addition to the traditional summer Saturday also you need to get the 158's from their depot (Machynlleth) to where all ATW trains need to be 4 car (Salop to Brum) and 6 in the peak.

 

[brianthegiant]

Gareth- well done for taking the time with the BBC, good to get some media coverage on this

My feeling is that hourly peak is a step in the right direction, and something to be positive about, it will:
- Generate additional demand, in turn will justifying further services
-Prove hourly is logistically possible also strengthening our argument
-Show passengers that hourly is possible, who will then ask why it cant also be done off peak.

Nonetheless, not a done deal, I wonder what WAG are up to, is this a case of putting something vague in the media to gauge public opinion & see what they can get away with?

 

[The Planner]

Can't see Coast trains getting past Dovey myself, more connections will be made there than Mach in the future.

 

[seagull]

The hourly service concept would be excellent in principle.

The biggest problems I can see are:

a) Mach-Talerddig - timed at 18 mins, no problem in winter but in spring or summer on a warm day, watch those 158s drop like flies and take 25-30 mins just for that section.

b) Charter Trains - a continuous hourly service through the day would mean it being impossible for any charter or railtour trains to get a path from Shrewsbury, as Welshpool-Sutton Bridge is the longest single section east of Mach at c. 20 minutes. Never understood why they didn't extend the Welshpool loop both sides of the station, as far as Buttington to the east.

Just these two reasons are why a sporadic hourly service may be a lot more robust in practice, i.e from Aber 5.15, 6.30, 7.30, 9.30, 10.30, 11.30, 13.30, 14.30, 15.30, 17.30, 18.30, 19.30. Or something.

 

[merlodlliw]

There must be ways of sorting the extra tour services, with all the £Ms spent,
As for the hourly, well hourly at peaks. ATW have always said give us the money, we will run the service.
Alas a huge amount as been spent on Anglesey, when it should have been shared around.
Bob

 

[4SRKT]

Is there no block post between Shrewsbury and Welshpool? When was the loop at Westbury taken out? And why?

 

[seagull]

Westbury Loop was taken out in the 1990s, ostensibly because of appalling reception problems with RETB making its use as a Token Exchange Point problematic, to say the least. No doubt cost effectiveness played its part too.

No reason under ERTMS why it shouldn't go back in, other than the incredibly huge expense which seems to accompany such projects.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I can remember the trains going up and down the loop at Westbury, RETB apparatus swapping ends, swearing and cursing. Its removal also allowed the extra minutes in the line speed upgrade of 94 so that a trains could cross at Talerddig on a 2 hrly frequency service. Its 80 mph through there the stop consumed time. This meant BR in theory never had to have more than 2 units on the Cambrian mainline at anyone time saving £.

Summer 06 was the pollen problem summer. I was commuting from Machynlleth to Newtown at the time an overheated 158 failing on Talerddig bank in 90 degree temperatures was no fun that summer i can assure you. It was always the Aberystwyth unit not the one that came off the coast that had problems. I've always suspected the IGER Grassland Research Station and its fields of GM crops next to the line at the Aber end of Bow St. Though no ones ever confirmed or denied this.

Thankfully its not happened since.

 

[steamybrian]

In my opinion an hourly service all day would be an operating disaster.
There are long block sections, tight turn rounds with little recovery time. Any late running would have a domino effect with little recovery time.
I remain unconvinced and see the way forward to overcome this would be additional loops at Borth and Cemmes Road to shorten the longest block sections.

 

[4SRKT]

In my opinion an hourly service all day would be an operating disaster.
There are long block sections, tight turn rounds with little recovery time. Any late running would have a domino effect with little recovery time.
I remain unconvinced and see the way forward to overcome this would be additional loops at Borth and Cemmes Road to shorten the longest block sections.

I have to agree. NIR operate a service every 110 minutes between Belfast and [London]Derry, with additional short workings to Ballymena (combined service every 30 minutes Belfast > Ballymena in the peak, with aspirations to spread this over more of the day when the odious new trains come from CAF to ruin life for thumper bashers). The line is single track all the way from a point about 6 miles north of Belfast. Some of the sections are very long indeed (>25 miles between Castlerock and Derry), so if anything goes wrong the knock on effects are pretty bad. It doesn't go wrong often, but that's hardly the point. It would be even worse on the Aber line with an hourly service, and one that's much less self-contained (Derry trains don't go beyond Belfast).

Is my memory faulty, or did it used to be double track from Sutton Bridge to that PW yard at Hookagate? Wouldn't a short double track section here be useful both in terms of making a nominal reduction in the length of the single line section, and providing a location for an Aber bound train to await a late running Shrewsbury bound train while not blocking up Shrewsbury station or the main North and West line?

 

[merlodlliw]

Gareth's info on the grass is interesting,anybody in that area started growing an extra ear yet?.

But to the average person having seen years of infrastructure in signals & lines,the extra services must have been taken into account, or is it all based on the Wales & Borders no growth stupidity.
Do I see extra services this year,probably no, as the A.Ms are already packing their bags now(some have already left) with the election in a few weeks.
The hourly service is not high up on Cardiff Bays agenda.mores the pity. No Political self gain in rail services in Powys, the political gain was spent in Anglesey £Ms of it.
Bob

 

[cymro inside]

according to a rival forum 150 285 is on extended loan to northern at NH, ATW seem to like making money out of being a sub leasing company rather than a train operator. 158 040 should be released to traffic mid week and an insider says that the seats do marry up with the windows. congratulations also to the people of Wales for voting yes on Thursday...good show...as for this money spent on Ynys Mon it also benefits Bangor which is the highest revenue earning station north of the M4 in Wales( it takes twice the cash of Wrexham and Rhyl its nearest rivals)

 

[krus_aragon]

Gareth's info on the grass is interesting,anybody in that area started growing an extra ear yet?.

Maybe a few extra ears of corn/wheat!

 

[merlodlliw]

Maybe a few extra ears of corn/wheat!

Good answer Krus.


Bob

 

[The Planner]

Westbury is a block section under ERTMS, you are capable of sending one up to Welshpool and one behind it up to Westbury and v.v. You are correct though that the Sutton Bridge end needs a small section of double track to allow things onto the branch and not foul up the mainline.

A hourly service is possible on what has been built, but yes it would fall like a pack of cards if something went seriously wrong. As for Charter paths, whilst it would annoy various parties and busineses, they have no contractural rights to run or are able to command a path in the WTT, they fit because they can.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Is my memory faulty, or did it used to be double track from Sutton Bridge to that PW yard at Hookagate? Wouldn't a short double track section here be useful both in terms of making a nominal reduction in the length of the single line section, and providing a location for an Aber bound train to await a late running Shrewsbury bound train while not blocking up Shrewsbury station or the main North and West line?[/QUOTE]

Statistically the initial delays are predominantly in the West Midlands, though as many point out the reduced infrastructure in Wales then cant allow any recovery. ATW currently arrive at New St @ xx26 wait 12 mins and go to INTL (with recovery time!) arriving xx50, the return is at XX09 departing New St xx24. In effect a 35 min layover so in practice nearly all the time the Westbound departures are right time out of New St. ATW also share the ORCATS cake from New St to INTL as well! Arriva in its never do anything unless someone else pays mode.

Sutton Bridge Jnc to Cruckmeole Jnc (Pontesbury branch) was double track
Passing loops at Yockleton and Westbury
Buttington Jnc to Forden was double track
Passing loops at Montgomery and Abermule
Newtown to Moat Lane Jnc was double track
Passing loops at Caersws, Pontdolgoch, Carno, Talerddig, Llanbrrynmair, Cemmaes Rd, Machynlleth, Dovey Jnc, Glandyfi, Ynyslas, Borth, Landre and Bow St
Llanbadarn Fawr to Aberystwyth was double track.

BR singled the route and closed many village stations in 65 and introduced DMU's as per the recommendation of the Beeching report.

Passing loops were initially kept at Borth, Dovey Jnc, Machynlleth, Cemmaes Rd, Talerddig, Caersws, Newtown, Montgomery, Welshpool and Westbury. Hookagate to Sutton Bridge was double track.

 

[The Planner]

ATW currently arrive at New St @ xx26 wait 12 mins and go to INTL (with recovery time!) arriving xx50

Which is there for a reason, the schedule does not work without it in which I explained many moons ago.

the return is at XX09 departing New St xx24. In effect a 35 min layover so in practice nearly all the time the Westbound departures are right time out of New St. ATW also share the ORCATS cake from New St to INTL as well! Arriva in its never do anything unless someone else pays mode.

ORCATS aside it makes perfect operational sense to do this.

 

[4SRKT]

The more I read about this the more it seems very like the Derry line. Except the Derry line has a couple of miles of double track beyond Bleach Green Junction so that a late running up train won't muck up the Larne line by causing a down Derry line working to be held at Whiteabbey.

NIR rather stupidly singled the Antrim > Ballymena section during the late '80s (leaving a loop midway at Magherabeg), and when the Bleach Green > Antrim section was reopened it was single track on the double alignment, except the short section Bleach Green > Monkstown. There are now aspirations to run hourly throughout the day to at least Ballymena and probably Coleraine (60 miles from Belfast). A loop has been reinstated at the former part time block post at Killagan on the long Ballymena > Ballymoney section, but otherwise a largely double track main line has been [recently] singled with no forethought for what might have been needed in the future.