We already know there is enough DMUs being freed up by electrification to replace the 142s like for like and the TransPennine electrification will create more. It may be to late for GW but not for Northern or Wales, but it will take everyone from the passengers to the politicians and the staff to stand up and say enough is enough before anything will happen.
Errr... NO!
NW Electrification Releases:
Chat Moss: 6 Diagrams NT, 6 Diagrams TPE
Wigan via St Helens Central: 8 Diagrams NT
Euxton Jcn via Bolton & Chorley: 8 Diagrams NT and 4 Diagrams TPE (With timetable changes)
Some of these are doubled up, so NT releases C~30 units and TPE C~10
I'd love to know how long these are to replace 79 Class 142 Units....
TPE N Electrification, if done in full (Ex. Scarbrough and/or Middlesbrough) Releases:
9 Class 170 Units
C~30 Class 185 Units (16 Diagrams on TPE S and TPE NW)
Manchester - Huddersfeild (2 Diagrams)
Huddersfeild - Leeds Direct (4 Diagrams, interworked)
Leeds - Selby (2 Diagrams, interworked)
Hull - York (2 Diagrams, sporadic)
Leeds - York (4 Diagrams, interworked)
So at best, without any capacity increase for non-electrified lines, we're releasing C~80 - 85 units. With TPE and NWT Electrification. If you actually look into pacer replacement proper though, the numbers come closer to being able to retire 70 - 75 pacer units without significant capacity increase (that is needed), so realistically we're looking at retirement of 50 units.
If you want to deal with the Northern franchise area isolated to release enough units, and increase capacity, you need to wire...
Lostock Jcn - Wigan Station Jcns. (4 more diagrams, many double formed)
Windsor Bridge Junction - Hindley Jcn (Another 4 diagrams with some timetable re-writes, loss of through journeys, very politically popular and should have the 'sparks effect' on the loop line)
Wigan Station Jcns. - Southport (Another 4, again, many doubled up)
Then a choice of...
Hazel Grove & East Manchester Lines to Chinley with Bays. (Works out at roughly 12 - 15 diagrams, but yet again, there is the 'sparks effect')
Trafford Park - Liverpool S Parkway via Warrington Central (Only 4 diagrams, but again, very politically popular)
That would provide EMUs for the busiest routes, where the extra capacity is needed, the 185s would run the likes of Buxton, Calder Valley etc. And that would bring about an end to pacers, in a self contained to the North West way, would require about 40 - 50 6x23m car EMUs for TPE Operations, and all the available 319s to transfer to Northern (and retain all 323s to operate on the Bolton Corridor, doubled up)