modernrail
Established Member
- Joined
- 26 Jul 2015
- Messages
- 1,440
I was waiting for somebody to clarify the warning and that is surely the only relevant point here, not whether it was unprecedented or not. We are all aware that unprecedented weather events are expected regularly and have been happening regularly. We pay for a warning system to help us navigate that new reality and landowners need to follow it.I'm not suggesting they are incompetent just have a lack of contingency planning around a predictable and indeed predicted in advance event.
A weather warning for severe flooding up to a height likely to cause problems in this area was issued 52 hours in advance followed by a flood warning 27 hours ahead. This flood warning had an 87% confidence level that the area of Northampton including the station and sidings would experience flooding to a level to cause significant damage to property and or risk to life.
It may not have flooded for years but we live in times of uncertainty regarding weather events and a changing climate making them likely to both occur more frequently and be more severe.
WMT had between 52 and 27 hours notice that this was a strong possibility on this occasion. Indeed the possibility of these areas flooding given the fact it has happened before is higher now than ever. Better contingency planning should be in place across the railway for responding to these events given the increasing frequency they are occurring.
That is potentially really damning isn’t it? If that was the warning surely there has been a failure to act. In insurance terms, surely you would expect an insurance company to give short shift to ‘I didn’t act on the warning but it is not my fault because it was unprecedented’. Perhaps the test would be, what would a reasonable train company do when faced with a flood warning that may impact its property and assets.
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But that was still a prediction of flooding? I would never expect the authorities to nail the actual height completely accurately. This is Mother Nature we are talking about.Source?
Anything I saw at the time suggests the water level ended up being half a metre higher than any worst case prediction.