2024 General Election overall result predictions

[Donny Dave]

My prediction is roughly 350 seats for Labour, 40ish for both the Lib Dems and the SNP, 180 for the Conservatives, and the rest taken by others.

 

[SuspectUsual]

A bit of fun

What will the result of the election be, nice and simple ie:

- Party x overall majority of y seats

or

- Party x no overall majority and y seats short of a majority

No reasoning required, no debate, no replying to other posts, just one simple prediction per person

Let’s see who gets closest

My prediction - a Labour majority of 67

 

[nw1]

Labour majority 80.

 

[Whistler40145]

Labour majority 100

Liberal Democrats official opposition

 

[Sorcerer]

The Electoral Calculus at the time of posting this predicts a Labour majority of 320. I think the true results will be somewhere between a majority of 100-140, not quite on the same level as 1997, but nevertheless still a very comfortable landslide majority. I don't think the Conservatives will be wiped out to the point of not being second place but will definitely feel a sting, and I think the Lib Dem vote at best might recover to pre-2015 levels.

SNP will lose a significant number of seats, Greens will retain their sole one in Brighton and Hove, and Reform much like UKIP and the Brexit Party before them will abstract some of the main party votes but ultimately won't make any meaningful gains in terms of seats. Won't stop Nigel Farage though because he truly is a stubborn and unrelenting individual.

 

[Trackman]

The Electoral Calculus at the time of posting this predicts a Labour majority of 320. I think the true results will be somewhere between a majority of 100-140, not quite on the same level as 1997, but nevertheless still a very comfortable landslide majority. I don't think the Conservatives will be wiped out to the point of not being second place but will definitely feel a sting, and I think the Lib Dem vote at best might recover to pre-2015 levels.

SNP will lose a significant number of seats, Greens will retain their sole one in Brighton and Hove, and Reform much like UKIP and the Brexit Party before them will abstract some of the main party votes but ultimately won't make any meaningful gains in terms of seats. Won't stop Nigel Farage though because he truly is a stubborn and unrelenting individual.

I was thinking of around 100-150.

Labour majority 100

Liberal Democrats official opposition

If we see massive swings to the Lib Dems like with the North Shropshire by-election in 2021 which was jaw dropping, anything is possible.
Another interesting point about North Shropshire, Labour were the second party, but lost about 9,000 votes in the by-election.
I think this is the interesting thing about this election, how well the lib Dems will do.

 

[Purple Train]

Labour majority 51.