2024 Fare Revision

[CyrusWuff]

The first announcement for 2024 has come from Transport Scotland, with Caledonian Sleeper berth fares to increase by an average of 8.7% from 1st January 2024, and ScotRail fares to increase by an average of 8.7% from 1st April 2024.

To soften the blow slightly, the ScotRail peak fares removal pilot is also being extended by three months, taking it through to June.

Rail fares increase level confirme

Transport Scotland has today confirmed the fares increase it will put in place for 2024.

Following an extended fares freeze for season tickets and flexipasses in Scotland, from April all ScotRail fares will increase by 8.7%.

The ScotRail peak fares removal pilot will be extended by three months until June 2024.

Similarly, Caledonian Sleeper fares will increase on average by 8.7% from 1 January, excluding seated tickets.

Ministers have agreed these fares after lengthy consideration to ensure rail services are sustainable in the longer term and that budgets align with the overall funding available.

Fiona Hyslop, Minister for Transport said:

“The Scottish Government rightly made the decision to freeze flexi-pass and season ticket prices as part of its response to the cost-of-living crisis. While this has now remained in place for almost two years, it is simply no longer sustainable.

“From 1 April 2024, all ScotRail fares will increase by 8.7%. We know that any increase is unwelcome for passengers, therefore we have kept the rise as low as possible to maintain the attractiveness and affordability of rail as a travel option.

“Caledonian Sleeper fares will also increase by 8.7% and this will take effect from 1 January 2024.

“We continue to look at ways to encourage greater rail use and that is why we are extending our peak fares pilot for a further three months until June 2024.

“Fares and fares increases remain, on average, lower than across the rest of Great Britain. ScotRail also continue to develop fares initiatives which can help attract more passengers, while offering savings and added value to existing rail users.

“We are committed to investing in public transport and through this latest budget we will provide more than £2.5 billion to support it. This includes over £1.6 billion to operate, maintain and improve Scotland’s railway, £430 million in funding for concessionary travel and bus services, and £434 million to operate and invest in our ferries.”

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Dec 2023 ==

UPDATE 22/12:
DfT have made their announcement for England today.

Headline figure is a 4.9% increase from 3rd March 2024, with what's now become the usual spin about it being lower than July RPI.

 

[WatcherZero]

England just announced as 4.9% from 3rd March.

 

[Jamesrob637]

That's not going to encourage people to the railway. However, I have noticed more Advances for sale in 2023 than 2022, and Northern did a few £1 Flash sales too.

 

[Snow1964]

At least wasn't traditional July RPI which was 9%

The government has today (22 December 2023) announced a significant intervention to cap next year’s rail fare increase at 4.9%, considerably below the 9% July’s retail price index (RPI) figure on which they are historically based.

This comes as the government delivers its commitment to halve inflation by the end of the year with the latest statistics showing inflation is at its lowest level for over 2 years at 3.9% – helping to keep fare rises lower in the long term.

Since 1996, under both Labour and Conservative governments, regulated rail fares have increased closely in line with RPI inflation – never being more than 1% above or below RPI before last year’s significant government intervention.

Today’s announcement means fare increases are lower than last year’s rise and will not increase until 3 March 2024. This means passengers will not see any changes in their fares until then, giving them more time to purchase season tickets at the current rate and keeping fares as low as possible for longer. Fare changes will now take place in March every year moving forward.

The regulated fare cap for National Rail operators in England is also significantly lower than in Scotland where rail fares are set to increase by 8.7% from April next year.

Transport Secretary, Mark Harper, said:

Having met our target of halving inflation across the economy, this is a significant intervention by the government to cap the increase in rail fares below last year’s rise.
Changed working patterns after the pandemic means that our railways are still losing money and require significant subsidies, so this rise strikes a balance to keep our railways running, while not overburdening passengers.
We remain committed to supporting the rail sector reform outdated working practices to help put it on a sustainable financial footing.
Today’s announcement builds on last year’s unprecedented intervention, which saw government cap the increase for 2023 at 6.4 percentage points lower than the 2022 July RPI figure. This means the government will have helped keep ticket prices more than 9% lower than what passengers would have paid if rises matched the RPI benchmark in the last 2 years.

With changes to working and travel patterns, there are significant challenges facing the railways. From July to September 2023, rail revenues were 78% of pre-pandemic levels once inflation was taken into account. Over the past year (2022 to 2023), the taxpayer has provided £12 billion in support for the railways, which is over £420 per household, as it continues to deal with a persistent revenue shortfall after COVID-19.

Some fare increases are, therefore, necessary to ensure the financial sustainability of our rail network, as are cost-saving reforms which ministers have urged rail unions to agree with.

The 4.9% increase strikes the right balance to keep our railways running and financially sustainable, while not overburdening passengers with excessive fare rises as we bear down on inflation.

Significant intervention to cap rail fares comes as government delivers target to halve inflation

Fare increases capped at 4.9% and will not increase until 3 March 2024.

www.gov.uk

 

[infobleep]

BBC News report on fare increases

Alex Robertson, chief executive at Transport Focus, the watchdog, said: "The highest priorities for passengers are value for money and reliability

"After recent disruption and the pressure on household budgets anything that limits fare increases has got to be welcome."

Rail union the RMT called the fare rises a "slap in the face" for passengers.

"The government is presiding over the managed decline of the railway, with huge cuts to safety critical infrastructure on the one hand, whilst allowing privatised train operators to pay out huge shareholder dividends with the other," RMT general secretary Mick Lynch said

"Meanwhile passengers are once again slapped in the face with massive fare increases proving once again what a categorical failure the fragmented privatised system is," he added.

Just waiting for the Rail Delivery Group quote, which will no doubt be something bland because they can't publicly disagree with a lower rates rise if they had wanted it to match inflation. I don't know if they did, so just a general comment

 

[Haywain]

they can't publicly disagree with a lower rates rise if they had wanted it to match inflation.

Why would RDG or the train operators care, when all revenue goes to the Treasury? I would expect a positive spin on this as it is, in real terms, a (very small) fare reduction.

 

[dk1]

4.9% is far fairer than expected and again delayed until March.

 

[northwichcat]

4.9% is far fairer than expected and again delayed until March.

Depends what you mean by fairer. Oil prices have decreased in the past 12 months. So the cost of running a diesel train should be less than the rate of inflation.

Other than those who were on the minimum wage, wages have generally increased significantly less than inflation. It would be fairest if they increased fares at the start of April, as that's when most people get pay rises (due to being when the minimum wage increases each year).

 

[dk1]

Depends what you mean by fairer. Oil prices have decreased in the past 12 months. So the cost of running a diesel train should be less than the rate of inflation.

Other than those who were on the minimum wage, wages have generally increased significantly less than inflation. It would be fairest if they increased fares at the start of April, as that's when most people get pay rises (due to being when the minimum wage increases each year).

I suppose if they increased in April somebody would want May. You can't win with that really. Energy bills however are going up yet again so suppose that cancels out diesel prices which are fuel hedged in advance.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I suppose if they increased in April somebody would want May. You can't win with that really. Energy bills however are going up yet again so suppose that cancels out diesel prices which are fuel hedged in advance.

No, they're forecast to come down next April:

Energy bills predicted to fall in April to £1,660

Analysts at Cornwall Insight say lower wholesale energy prices will reduce bills by £268.

www.bbc.co.uk

Annual energy bills for a typical household are expected to fall by £268 in April, a new forecast suggests.
Consultancy firm Cornwall Insight says bills could drop to £1,660 under the official price cap set by the UK's energy regulator Ofgem.

 

[Haywain]

Depends what you mean by fairer. Oil prices have decreased in the past 12 months. So the cost of running a diesel train should be less than the rate of inflation.

Are you aware that the fare increase is below the rate of inflation?

 

[Richardr]

The press release linked to above confirms:

Fare changes will now take place in March every year moving forward.

 

[northwichcat]

I suppose if they increased in April somebody would want May. You can't win with that really.

Well actually considering most people won't benefit from the effect of their pay rise until the last week in April, the 1 May would be a fair date for commuters. However, the operators could argue 1 April would be fair as that's when any low paid staff (like cleaners and RPIs) would need to pay rises to ensure they are paid at least the minimum wage.

 

[OscarH]

The press release linked to above confirms:

Anyone want to take bets on which retailer will leak the fares early this year

 

[infobleep]

Why would RDG or the train operators care, when all revenue goes to the Treasury? I would expect a positive spin on this as it is, in real terms, a (very small) fare reduction.

Because it might impact on what the Treasury pays the rail industry to run trains?

 

[SWT_USER]

Same as the last few years really, increased fares for an worse service.

I'd like to see fare rises tied to fuel duty rises - frozen/ cut for the past 10 years.

 

[Haywain]

Because it might impact on what the Treasury pays the rail industry to run trains?

Treasury takes the revenue, DfT pays the costs.

 

[dk1]

No, they're forecast to come down next April:

Energy bills predicted to fall in April to £1,660

Analysts at Cornwall Insight say lower wholesale energy prices will reduce bills by £268.

www.bbc.co.uk

But that doesn't help hedge buying does it? Anything could happen.

 

[mrd269697]

Will fares ever be frozen? They’ve increased by some amount basically since privatisation. The government clearly don’t like subsidising the railway. I don’t understand how a rise can be justified after the disgraceful service levels this year, whether it’s below inflation or not.

 

[kkong]

Will fares ever be frozen? They’ve increased by some amount basically since privatisation. The government clearly don’t like subsidising the railway. I don’t understand how a rise can be justified after the disgraceful service levels this year, whether it’s below inflation or not.

Fares were frozen in Scotland last year, which explains why the increase just announced for 2024 is higher than expected.

 

[JonathanH]

Will fares ever be frozen? They’ve increased by some amount basically since privatisation.

It is farely unlikely at current levels of inflation, with the operational cost of the railway increasing, and a high level of subsidy already required.

Fares on some routes did fall on some routes in the early days of privatisation, when it was possible to increase fares on popular routes and reduce them on others, but more recently they have increased across the board.

Fares used to increase year on year prior to privatisation as well.

I don’t understand how a rise can be justified after the disgraceful service levels this year, whether it’s below inflation or not.

By that argument, we would have high increases following a year with a good service.

 

[Sonic1234]

Will fares ever be frozen?

It would help the railway's price perception problem though, a lot of non- and infrequent rail users regard it as ruinously expensive (not always unjustified, although this idea is usually formed from articles on £350 Anytime returns). Might bring in some new business.

 

[Watershed]

Will fares ever be frozen? They’ve increased by some amount basically since privatisation. The government clearly don’t like subsidising the railway. I don’t understand how a rise can be justified after the disgraceful service levels this year, whether it’s below inflation or not.

Realistically speaking, no. Despite the recurring myth perpetuated by some of the TOCs, the level of annual fare increases bears no relation to the level of fare evasion or indeed any other operational or financial factors connected to the railway. They are determined almost entirely on a political basis, be that by the DfT, Treasury, TfL etc.

By that argument, we would have high increases following a year with a good service.

Not an entirely outlandish proposal; that's broadly speaking what happened in the earliest years of privatisation - the idea being to reward TOCs that perform well and penalise those that don't.

 

[Llandudno]

It is farely unlikely at current levels of inflation, with the operational cost of the railway increasing, and a high level of subsidy already required.

Fares on some routes did fall on some routes in the early days of privatisation, when it was possible to increase fares on popular routes and reduce them on others, but more recently they have increased across the board.

Fares used to increase year on year prior to privatisation as well.


By that argument, we would have high increases following a year with a good service.

Excellent idea, this would result in a price freeze for a decade in the north of England and north Wales…!

 

[JonathanH]

It would help the railway's price perception problem though, a lot of non- and infrequent rail users regard it as ruinously expensive (not always unjustified, although this idea is usually formed from articles on £350 Anytime returns). Might bring in some new business.

A price freeze wouldn't help much with that perception problem, even if over many years. Price cuts might, but what one person perceives to be expensive might be considered acceptable by another person.

 

[WatcherZero]

As long as salaries continue to make up around 28% of total industry spending and staff want wage above inflation increases every year (nevermind contractors/suppliers) ticket prices will have to rise to meet the demand unless staff costs are cut.

 

[Krokodil]

and staff want wage above inflation increases every year

Have I had too much sherry or do I remember the offer that RMT members accepted being well below inflation? I'm pretty sure that most drivers would also accept a below inflation rise if it came with no strings.

 

[infobleep]

Have I had too much sherry or do I remember the offer that RMT members accepted being well below inflation? I'm pretty sure that most drivers would also accept a below inflation rise if it came with no strings.

I'm sure they would. Perhaps a minister would like to explain why they want the strings attached.

 

[Krokodil]

I'm sure they would. Perhaps a minister would like to explain why they want the strings attached.

Well they haven't any idea of how much money those changes would save (naff all in most cases) so financial reasons can't be the motivation. I can only imagine therefore that they are looking for a scapegoat for the mismanagement of the railway and drivers are a handy group to beat with a stick. The fact that driver pay spiralled as a result of breaking up BR's monopoly into a free market is clearly lost on them.

 

[WatcherZero]

Have I had too much sherry or do I remember the offer that RMT members accepted being well below inflation? I'm pretty sure that most drivers would also accept a below inflation rise if it came with no strings.

RMT have had above inflation rises in ten out of the 13 years between 2009 and 2022.

Average UK wages rose 26% inline with CPI while train driver pay rose 39% and Guard pay rose 45% during the same period. Just to finance a 10% wage rise for directly employed staff would require ticket prices to increase by 2.6% on average.