2023 Israel - Hamas / Hezbollah war

[Tetchytyke]

what should replace Israel

Israel v2.0, a secular democratic country where all the inhabitants get an equal say.

 

[AlterEgo]

I agree that it is probably impossible to resolve but the concept of dissolving a nuclear-armed state who believe they have a God-given right to the land is unrealistic, I’m afraid.

Exactly this happened to South Africa's Afrikaners and their herronvolk mentality. It is much less hard to imagine than one might think.

 

[Tetchytyke]

the concept of dissolving a nuclear-armed state who believe they have a God-given right to the land is unrealistic

Perhaps, but the situation looked very similar in South Africa at the start of the 1980s. By the end of the 1980s the apartheid state was on its last legs.

Same, really, in East Germany. At the start of the 80s it was untouchable. Less than ten years later…gone.

If the current Israeli regime lost the support of the west then they’d be gone quickly too.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Exactly this happened to South Africa's Afrikaners and their herronvolk mentality. It is much less hard to imagine than one might think.

That was a far less stable nation - the oppressed majority population were inside the state and working to undermine it - I.e. Nelson Mandela etc. Israel is surrounded by enemies but has very strong walls and a siege mentality, and a far stronger defence network.

 

[AlterEgo]

That was a far less stable nation - the oppressed majority population were inside the state and working to undermine it - I.e. Nelson Mandela etc. Israel is surrounded by enemies but has very strong walls and a siege mentality, and a far stronger defence network.

Israel only has all of that - and the ability to exclude people based on race and religion into giant open air camps (which they are flattening and murdering anyway) - because you and millions of other Western taxpayers are paying for it and underwriting their defence.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Israel only has all of that - and the ability to exclude people based on race and religion into giant open air camps (which they are flattening and murdering anyway) - because you and millions of other Western taxpayers are paying for it and underwriting their defence.

UK sells arms to Israel (which I don’t support personally) but to say that we’re somehow directly paying/funding their defence directly, I don’t believe is true?

 

[AlterEgo]

UK sells arms to Israel (which I don’t support personally) but to say that we’re somehow directly paying/funding their defence directly, I don’t believe is true?

Do you think none of Britain's defence capacity is predicated at all on Israel's presence as a Western vassal in the Middle East? The USA has provided literal aid to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars to Israel - a country with the population of London and cannot afford all these weapons on its own. And we support the United States in those aims.

A significant part of Britain's military operations exist because of, and to protect, Israel, a state the West uses as a political backstop in the Middle East. It does cost us money; the way our political relations are structured means yes, it is costing us money to secure the existence of Israel.

 

[DustyBin]

Not comforting at all to know Mossad can blow up a person standing next to you in the supermarket queue.

It’s preferable to blowing up the whole supermarket.

Of course, you might think “well Israel might choose not to do that in London” (not that in fact they had any real control over where these pagers exploded, some weeks or months after they were delivered), and “of course they did it in Lebanon”.

Wouldn’t terrorists carrying (unbeknown to them) explosive devices find international travel somewhat difficult?

But that’s only because they view Muslim lives as having no real value.

Possibly not (note the feeling is reciprocal), but this was a highly targeted attack against actual terrorists.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Do you think none of Britain's defence capacity is predicated at all on Israel's presence as a Western vassal in the Middle East? The USA has provided literal aid to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars to Israel - a country with the population of London and cannot afford all these weapons on its own. And we support the United States in those aims.

A significant part of Britain's military operations exist because of, and to protect, Israel, a state the West uses as a political backstop in the Middle East. It does cost us money; the way our political relations are structured means yes, it is costing us money to secure the existence of Israel.

A significant part of Western defence policy involves preventing Iran from gaining nuclear capability and threatening the whole region North Korean-style. Retaining a military presence in the Middle East is an essential part of this, so friendly relations with one country is a necessary evil. The Iranian regime is an order of magnitude more odious than the current Israeli regime. It is possible to be opposed to despicable Israeli actions against its neighbours, and still recognise the importance of Western presence there, and yes, that includes military bases and cooperation etc.

To take an idealistic approach, that the West should just pull out and let Israel fold, is naive in the extreme. That kind of change in the region could trigger far more than just a regional war.

What actually needs to happen is for the US to specify - and enforce - FAR more stringent restrictions on its direct funding of Israel based on Israel’s behaviour and willingness to discuss and progress the two-state solution, including compromises on territorial claims and Palestinian citizenship rights etc. However the US political establishment is so inherently rotten, and historically in bed with the Zionist movement that this is very unlikely at the moment.

 

[DustyBin]

A significant part of Western defence policy involves preventing Iran from gaining nuclear capability and threatening the whole region North Korean-style. Retaining a military presence in the Middle East is an essential part of this, so friendly relations with one country is a necessary evil. The Iranian regime is an order of magnitude more odious than the current Israeli regime. It is possible to be opposed to despicable Israeli actions against its neighbours, and still recognise the importance of Western presence there, and yes, that includes military bases and cooperation etc.

To take an idealistic approach, that the West should just pull out and let Israel fold, is naive in the extreme. That kind of change in the region could trigger far more than just a regional war.

What actually needs to happen is for the US to specify - and enforce - FAR more stringent restrictions on its direct funding of Israel based on Israel’s behaviour and willingness to discuss and progress the two-state solution, including compromises on territorial claims and Palestinian citizenship rights etc. However the US political establishment is so inherently rotten, and historically in bed with the Zionist movement that this is very unlikely at the moment.

A fair assessment IMO.

 

[AlterEgo]

It’s preferable to blowing up the whole supermarket.

What a splendid equivocation. "Well, we could have murdered more people - thankfully it was just some random bystanders and a couple of children. We are the good guys".

Wouldn’t terrorists carrying (unbeknown to them) explosive devices find international travel somewhat difficult?

You say that like it wasn't possible for the packages to be sent internationally with the explosives in them in the first place. Hezbollah have had them for months. But sure, let's for arguments sake say it couldn't have happened in London. What difference does it make?

Possibly not (note the feeling is reciprocal), but this was a highly targeted attack against actual terrorists.

Highly targeted by blowing them up in public places, yes, very targeted. I mean, what is it you're trying to say here? Would that attack be acceptable if it happened to a few Hezbollah terrorists in Britain? If they exploded in the Tesco Express down the road from you? I think you'd be outraged, especially if an innocent child who was standing next to them got maimed or died. I don't think you'd be saying what a targeted attack it was then. It is reckless terrorism no better than a car or letter bomb, because they have no concern about who else gets killed.

What does it matter if the feeling is reciprocal? It makes no difference to the moral weight of Israel's crimes of genocide, mass murder, infanticide, apartheid and so on - many of which are being perpetrated against children.

A significant part of Western defence policy involves preventing Iran from gaining nuclear capability and threatening the whole region North Korean-style. Retaining a military presence in the Middle East is an essential part of this, so friendly relations with one country is a necessary evil.

What do you think Israel provides in that respect that Cyprus, Bahrain, and so on do not?

The Iranian regime is an order of magnitude more odious than the current Israeli regime.

I don't think it is worse, and certainly not at minimum twice as bad.

It is possible to be opposed to despicable Israeli actions against its neighbours

In many cases, its own people - Gaza and the West Bank are in Israel. And when we say "despicable actions", let's say what they are quite clearly. Genocide, mass murder, infanticide, apartheid. The world is not a neat place but we can and should be doing better.

What actually needs to happen is for the US to specify - and enforce - FAR more stringent restrictions on its direct funding of Israel based on Israel’s behaviour and willingness to discuss and progress the two-state solution, including compromises on territorial claims and Palestinian citizenship rights etc. However the US political establishment is so inherently rotten, and historically in bed with the Zionist movement that this is very unlikely at the moment.

And a big part of that is the fact Western allies continue to have warm relations with the USA and fail to apply pressure for it to behave properly. This is very much our problem.

 

[edwin_m]

It’ll be interesting to see how they’ve done it, whether they’ve attached explosives to all the devices by infiltrating the supply chain upstream or whether they’ve used software to cause the lithium ion batteries to explode.

I’ll not lie, the latter terrifies me. The Israelis haven’t always been the most choosy about who they sell their software to, as we saw with Pegasus. And most of us carry around an item in our pocket with a lithium ion battery…

As I write this, the news is suggesting there were explosives built in, and also the Taiwanese supplier whose name is on the product claims the design and manufacture was licensed to a company in Hungary, on which nobody has found any information.

On this basis I speculate that Israel (assuming they were reponsible - difficult to see who else it might be) set up this company and secured the license agreement so they could claim to be a reputable brand without the risk of copyright infringement shining an unwelcome spotlight. It strikes me as unusual for a brand owner to surrender all control over what goes onto the market in their name, but a BBC report suggests it is quite common, and it's possible some designs or samples of apparently legitimate products were shown to the brand owner and they are now keeping quiet about that. Through intelligence contacts in Hezbollah they would then ensure that this company was signed up as the supplier. The alternative of intercepting and modifying a shipment would be more difficult to pull off and require even more insider intelligence.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

And a big part of that is the fact Western allies continue to have warm relations with the USA and fail to apply pressure for it to behave properly. This is very much our problem.

Just to reply to this element of your post - how do you propose smaller countries such as UK can put pressure on the US, in a manner that does not result in far worse economic, political and diplomatic counter-pressures coming back the other way? US power in these spheres is enormous compared to ours. There is a reason the worlds greatest powers are also generally the biggest countries. This is also naive - akin to Brexiteers thinking that UK could put pressure on the much bigger EU once we had ‘escaped’.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Wouldn’t terrorists carrying (unbeknown to them) explosive devices find international travel somewhat difficult?

They managed to ship 3,000 booby-trapped pagers from Hungary to Lebanon without anyone noticing.

To take an idealistic approach, that the West should just pull out and let Israel fold, is naive in the extreme. That kind of change in the region could trigger far more than just a regional war.

I don't think the west should do what they did in Afghanistan by pulling out and leaving the locals to deal with the mess.

But support for Israel should be far more contingent on Israel behaving properly. Israel have long been allowed to be a complete rogue state- breaking sanctions against apartheid South Africa and, only this week, has admitted to breaking sanctions against Russia by sending them weapons avionics.

If another country broke sanctions against Russia their feet wouldn't touch the floor. But because it is Israel the West just shrugs.

A significant part of Western defence policy involves preventing Iran from gaining nuclear capability and threatening the whole region North Korean-style. Retaining a military presence in the Middle East is an essential part of this, so friendly relations with one country is a necessary evil.

Most of the Middle East is just as much against Iran as the west is. The Saudis have been waging a proxy war in Yemen against Iranian proxies for years.

As for the Iranian threat more generally, I'm cynical enough to think that it's mostly that in order to keep the machine of war nicely oiled and nicely profitable you need to have a bad guy. Iran clearly doesn't have the threat the West tries to portray it as having- it's proxies wouldn't keep suffering humiliating defeats if it did- and nor does it have the threat Iran tries to portray itself as having.

However the US political establishment is so inherently rotten, and historically in bed with the Zionist movement that this is very unlikely at the moment.

I think that is depressingly accurate. It's not just the US political establishment either. I'm trying to choose my words carefully as I very very strongly don't agree with the abhorrent anti-semitic trope that Jewish people rule the world, but Likud and the Israeli state machine have been incredibly successful at getting their people into positions of influence.

 

[AlterEgo]

Just to reply to this element of your post - how do you propose smaller countries such as UK can put pressure on the US, in a manner that does not result in far worse economic, political and diplomatic counter-pressures coming back the other way?

This question proposes that countries like the UK are merely vassal states of the USA and are pragmatically unable to exercise their own sovereignty, which I don't agree with. For a start, we have American bases here in the UK. They're a hangover from the Cold War. We're to suppose the US finds these bases very valuable, so a good start would be pushing back against their military being stationed on our soil.

US power in these spheres is enormous compared to ours. There is a reason the worlds greatest powers are also generally the biggest countries. This is also naive - akin to Brexiteers thinking that UK could put pressure on the much bigger EU once we had ‘escaped’.

It's one of the reasons I don't think leaving Europe was wise. A stronger pro-Palestinian lobby across Europe would actually make the US think twice. Of course Europe and the UK need to be stronger, better governed, more productive and more relevant to enact more meaningful change. But America does notice when it loses allies and has historically corrected itself when that has happened.

 

[bleeder4]

It's one of the reasons I don't think leaving Europe was wise. A stronger pro-Palestinian lobby across Europe would actually make the US think twice. Of course Europe and the UK need to be stronger, better governed, more productive and more relevant to enact more meaningful change. But America does notice when it loses allies and has historically corrected itself when that has happened.

I don't mean to be pedantic, but this is one of my pet peeves. We haven't "left Europe" - not unless continental drift has caused our islands to float hundreds of miles into the North Sea. We have left the European Union (EU) alliance, but the UK is still part of the continent of Europe.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

But America does notice when it loses allies and has historically corrected itself when that has happened.

Unless Trump is in power, in which case who the hell knows what America will do…

 

[brad465]

Unless Trump is in power, in which case who the hell knows what America will do…

In that instance the "Genocide Joe" folk will be wishing it was still Biden running the show. Furthermore all those who claim Trump started no wars/was the most peaceful President yet conveniently forget he made plenty of actions that contributed to the Middle East instability, including moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and assassinating the top Iranian general.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Sep 2024 ==

I’m not sure about that. I wish for Israel to be dismantled peacefully, although this possibility seems remote now. A huge amount depends on Iran. If it too, collapses, and even secularises, the necessity for a western military ally in the Middle East will lessen. The declining relevance of the Cold War - and the lessened necessity for an anti-Russia country in Africa - was a significant factor in the end of the racist apartheid white regime and its nuclear programme in South Africa.

Since October last year I have sometimes wondered if anti-apartheid protestors were the subject of a comparable smear campaign to anti-Zionist protestors often being labelled antisemitic today, which would not be surprising as there is no way it would have lasted as long if many Western countries didn't notably prop it up.

 

[AlterEgo]

Since October last year I have sometimes wondered if anti-apartheid protestors were the subject of a comparable smear campaign to anti-Zionist protestors often being labelled antisemitic today, which would not be surprising as there is no way it would have lasted as long if many Western countries didn't notably prop it up.

I don’t think so. There is something uniquely pernicious about anti-Semitism and modern Europe was founded on the ashes of the Holocaust post-WWII. So I think the mechanics of it all are quite different.

Anti-apartheid protestors were labelled as communists and terrorists but not to the same degree, I think. Before my time though!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I agree that it is probably impossible to resolve but the concept of dissolving a nuclear-armed state who believe they have a God-given right to the land is unrealistic, I’m afraid.

Correct. I would say this will not end well - but of course it has not started well, and it is not continuing well either.

A democratic and multi-racial state.

Would be wonderful.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I don’t think so. There is something uniquely pernicious about anti-Semitism and modern Europe was founded on the ashes of the Holocaust post-WWII. So I think the mechanics of it all are quite different.

Anti-apartheid protestors were labelled as communists and terrorists but not to the same degree, I think. Before my time though!

The anti-Apartheid movement was set against the backdrop of the Cold War, where pretty much everything was defined by either US or Soviet backing. The African National Congress openly declared their communist alignment I think? So they weren‘t labelled by others, they labelled themselves. Of course it didn’t mean they actually allied with Russia, they simply took the flag of the opposite power to the one supporting their enemy, like dozens of other conflicts did, and to some extent still do.

I don’t think you can make direct comparisons between Israel and South Africa simply because the geopolitical backdrop is so different. If anything, things are the other way around now. A regional conflict escalates and the superpowers actually try and wade in and attach themselves to one side if it means they can gain a foothold or snub noses at their superpower rivals. See China’s massive investments in African states, Russia trying to get in on the Israel-Gaza conflict etc. The power dynamic has reversed.

 

[AlterEgo]

The anti-Apartheid movement was set against the backdrop of the Cold War, where pretty much everything was defined by either US or Soviet backing. The African National Congress openly declared their communist alignment I think? So they weren‘t labelled by others, they labelled themselves. Of course it didn’t mean they actually allied with Russia, they simply took the flag of the opposite power to the one supporting their enemy, like dozens of other conflicts did, and to some extent still do.

I don’t think you can make direct comparisons between Israel and South Africa simply because the geopolitical backdrop is so different. If anything, things are the other way around now. A regional conflict escalates and the superpowers actually try and wade in and attach themselves to one side if it means they can gain a foothold or snub noses at their superpower rivals. See China’s massive investments in African states, Russia trying to get in on the Israel-Gaza conflict etc. The power dynamic has reversed.

I think we are more talking about anti-apartheid protests elsewhere than South Africa, where many people certainly weren’t communist or pro-Russia. Indeed the United States intervened several times against the white regime during apartheid.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Of course it didn’t mean they actually allied with Russia, they simply took the flag of the opposite power to the one supporting their enemy, like dozens of other conflicts did, and to some extent still do.

An enemy of my enemy is my friend?

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Looks like Phase 2 deployed now.

After the exploding pagers, handheld radios have now ignited.

I'm expecting the carrier pigeons tomorrow.

ACME brand, no doubt.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

An enemy of my enemy is my friend?

Exactly.

 

[ainsworth74]

Based on the footage I’ve seen it appears some kind of explosive had been incorporated into the devices; the explosions look too powerful to be caused by batteries alone. Which is relatively comforting!

I suppose in some respects. The fact that is unlikely to have been a cyber based attack does at least mean that we don't necessarily need to worry about our mobile phones suddenly being turned into bombs by the simple expedient of some malicious code.

But, it probably does raise quite serious questions about the security of supply chains and just how certain we can be that buying things that are made in one country, containing components from a different country, using a design based on work done in yet another country that are then being shipped around the world is a practice which does not allow for the sort of attack where an aggressor tampers with the product. Either, as in this case, to turn it into an explosive device or for some other nefarious purpose.

It really is probably time that a lot of countries began to think about this sort of thing rather than just allowing their companies to just go for the cheapest bidder all the time to ensure maximum amounts of "line must go up!" (not that I'm suggesting we go for full autarky either!).

So I'm not sure that the fact that Mossad had to do it the old fashioned way and actually get explosives into these devices is in reality all that comforting!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Looks like Phase 2 deployed now.
After the exploding pagers, handheld radios have now ignited.
I'm expecting the carrier pigeons tomorrow.
ACME brand, no doubt.

Do you have a link please?

MSN

By Laila Bassam and Maya Gebeily

BEIRUT (Reuters) -Hand-held radios used by Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah detonated late on Wednesday afternoon across the country's south and in the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut, a security source and a witness said.At least one of the blasts took place near a funeral organized by Iran-backed Hezbollah for those killed the previous day when thousands of pagers used by the group exploded across the country.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

There are a few videos online too, depending on your preferred social media channels.

Appears to be laptops, phones and all manner of communication devices involved now.

I do hope that this doesn't cause a knee jerk reaction with aviation security - I suppose there's no guarantee one of these rigged devices doesn't make it on to a commercial flight.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

There are a few videos online too, depending on your preferred social media channels.

Appears to be laptops, phones and all manner of communication devices involved now.

I do hope that this doesn't cause a knee jerk reaction with aviation security - I suppose there's no guarantee one of these rigged devices doesn't make it on to a commercial flight.

It is really getting scarier by the day. Lets assume that it is Mossad though, ( a pretty damned good assumption I would bet a months salary on) then the USA have good enough relations with Israel/Mossad to get enough information to be able to protect planes etc.

 

[JamesT]

There are a few videos online too, depending on your preferred social media channels.

Appears to be laptops, phones and all manner of communication devices involved now.

I do hope that this doesn't cause a knee jerk reaction with aviation security - I suppose there's no guarantee one of these rigged devices doesn't make it on to a commercial flight.

Thus far all the indications are that conventional explosives have been hidden inside devices supplied to Hezbollah. This is something that existing airport security is already setup to deal with.