2014 fares release delay - increase cut to RPI

[Sleepy]

January 2014 fares revision release date has been put back - read into that what you will !!! Do not wish give more details at this stage as an industry worker.

 

[Be3G]

Sounds like the Chancellor's Autumn Statement this Wednesday will be one to watch then!

 

[ffm]

Probably it will, but the delay is no doubt more about keeping it until the ConDems have given us other 'positive' stories, in order we think they are, such as today's news that gas and electricity prices with nPower and BG won't go up as much as previously indicated!
Political spin machine hard at work on rail fares I suspect. Look out for some major news story that they can use to overtake the headlines of the rises.

 

[OwlMan]

January 2014 fares revision release date has been put back - read into that what you will !!! Do not wish give more details at this stage as an industry worker.

28 days before is Thursday - unlike other fare revisions the January revision is not on a Monday,
Howewver on Governme3nt reuest it may be delayed to next Tuersday.

The Manual
Next site refresh: Thursday 5 December 2013*
* This is a special update to align exactly with the 28 days in advance 'Period of Operation Rule' of the 'effective from' date of NFM 17 and to coincide with TIS downloads of new fares and the national press announcement of the Fares Change Date.
Please note that this will mean that there will not be an update on Monday 2 December as originally planned.

Update: this date might be pushed back even further to Tuesday 10 December due to a request by the government to the rail industry.

 

[RJ]

More time for people to get next year's season tickets at this year's prices, for those lucky enough to find a ticket office that is relaxed on the advance retailing of seasons

As for Owlman's quote hinting at fiscal intervention, last time around the cap for fare increases was brought down....

 

[bnm]

I'm led to believe that, in the FGW area, fares will rise by much less than RPI+1% and may even be frozen at 2013 prices.

That information came from a talk a couple of weeks ago, to a rail user group in Wiltshire, given by Ian Mundy from FGW's publicity department.

Unrelated, but also from that talk, FGW is likely to renamed, rebranded and reliveried within the franchise extension period.

 

[Pumbaa]

Transport for London is still set to announce theirs tomorrow morning at Charing X.

 

[ainsworth74]

There is a thread here for discussing changes to LU fares. This thread should be used for talking about National Rail fares. Many thanks.

 

[Goatboy]

Nice as it may be I somewhat doubt this will be becuase of any nice plans not to increase fares again this year.

 

[SickyNicky]

The 2014 fares are already available in the data feed - they're just not supposed to be released to the public yet. I can assure you that they do increase! The question is, are they going to change before that date?

 

[Cletus]

Southeastern in reply to enquiries on twitter say that they are announcing 2014 fares on 10th December.

 

[island]

Boris has a press release out saying that tube fares will go up by on average 3.1% (RPI flat) and that he would fund the difference through unspecified efficiency savings.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Period travelcards are going up by RPI+1% though, and Boris is laying the blame for that firmly at the door of ATOC.

I think we can expect the usual antics from ATOC, sticking more than RPI+1% on the most popular fares, closing down a load of loopholes, and reducing unpopular fares to average out the "basket of fares".

 

[Goatboy]

Boris has a press release out saying that tube fares will go up by on average 3.1% (RPI flat) and that he would fund the difference through unspecified efficiency savings.

I wish they'd be more honest, it's not going up by RPI as RPI is somewhat lower than 3.1%, it's going up by the RPI that was present months ago.

 

[soil]

I wish they'd be more honest, it's not going up by RPI as RPI is somewhat lower than 3.1%, it's going up by the RPI that was present months ago.

It's 2.6% this month and was 3.2% last month. Such fluctuations are noise really. There's nothing dishonest about saying that they will use RPI providing that the month-to-month figure is determined in advance.

 

[WatcherZero]

I heard talk last week the Government may announce a one off limiting of rail fare rises to 2% in the Autumn statement to help with the cost of living (and get some good pr). Also some talk they might do something to address the size of unregulated fare rises.

Autumn Statement: RPI+1% dropped, fares capped to inflation this year.

 

[mildertduck]

Rail fares to remain flat in real terms - so only inflation increases?!

 

[IanXC]

Indeed - increases have been capped at RPI.

Rail Fares
1.272 To help households with living costs the government will further cap the average increase in regulated rail fares for the 2014 calendar year to RPI. This will benefit over a quarter of a million annual season ticket holders who will, on average in 2014, save £25. For instance, an annual season ticket from Chelmsford to London should be around £35 less in 2014 than it would have been without this change whilst an annual season ticket from Oxford to London should be around £45 less. This measure will complement the decision by the Mayor of London to cap the average increase in Transport for London fares at RPI for 2014.

1.273 Autumn Statement 2013 confirms that the permitted ‘flex’ above the overall cap on average rail fares will be reduced to 2%. A commuter with a £2,000 season ticket could Autumn Statement 2013 69 save up to £60 because of this measure, in a scenario in which the operator had chosen to apply the maximum permitted increase.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-statement-2013-documents

 

[Edvid]

That reminds me - back in 2010, the government announced a three-year phase of RPI+3% caps for regulated fares IIRC. Since then, what where the actual caps?

 

[Goatboy]

Is it capped to RPI as at Autumn Statement (2.6%) or RPI as at the previous measure (3.1%)?

 

[Edvid]

3.1%. They always refer to the latest July measure.

 

[Be3G]

The confusing situation we have now is that TfL's rail-inclusive fare rises (e.g. travelcard seasons) are still 4.1% – i.e. RPI+1%.

 

[Zoe]

That reminds me - back in 2010, the government announced a three-year phase of RPI+3% caps for regulated fares IIRC. Since then, what where the actual caps?

It was planned to increse by RPI plus three percent for three years starting in January 2012. It was then decided to limit the 2012 increase to RPI plus one percent and later 2013 and 2014 were also limited to RPI plus one perecnet. With the announcement today, 2014 will be limited to RPI.

 

[Edvid]

Thanks.

So that means the regulated fares basket will have risen by 7% less than originally planned after the 2010 Spending Review (come next month). With only one more January basket to decide on before the next general election, I wonder what the chances are of RPI+3% being implemented before 2019/20, or indeed in 2015...

 

[WatcherZero]

And will directly lead to less for the Dft to spend on rail related projects and subsidies (departmental budget is set upon the expectation of those farebox revenues) and having to be more ruthless asking for cash rather than investment when negotiating with franchises.

 

[andrewkeith5]

Thanks.

So that means the regulated fares basket will have risen by 7% less than originally planned after the 2010 Spending Review (come next month). With only one more January basket to decide on before the next general election, I wonder what the chances are of RPI+3% being implemented before 2019/20, or indeed in 2015...

To clarify, it would be 7 percentage points (that is, of the increases they said they would make, the difference between the percentage implemented is 7 percentage points, not 7% of either figure), but yes...

I don't think there will be an RPI+3 rise unless we have the same government after the election, as it's a useful way of making themselves look good by saying they're doing better than they said they would.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Rail fares rises next year will be kept as low as possible. There's a general election to be won, and Labour are clearly campaigning on the fact that the Tories have taken all our money through price rises far in excess of wage rises.

Come 2016, expect a whopping great rise to pay for it.

 

[BrownE]

I'm led to believe that, in the FGW area, fares will rise by much less than RPI+1% and may even be frozen at 2013 prices.

That information came from a talk a couple of weeks ago, to a rail user group in Wiltshire, given by Ian Mundy from FGW's publicity department.

Maybe not for Swindon, Bristol, Reading, Chippenham, Cardiff, Westbury, Newbury to Paddington fares. All of which were planned for above 4% on most fares (before the Chancellor's announcement). I haven't bothered looking at more fares, but I guess, in general they will all be less than 4%, because a PR man said so.

 

[Goatboy]

Maybe not for Swindon, Bristol, Reading, Chippenham, Cardiff, Westbury, Newbury to Paddington fares. All of which were planned for above 4% on most fares (before the Chancellor's announcement).

Which would explain why fares elsewhere might not change, in order to keep the average at RPI+1%?

I wonder what XC will do, blanket RPI across the board I'd imagine, just strikes me as an XC thing to do

 

[Gricerjo]

TOCs had budgeted for an increase of RPI+1% on regulated fares, in line with government policy so yesterday’s announcement means a dip in income.

So where is the money to come from?

Unlikely that shareholders or directors will take a haircut, even less likely that Government will make good the difference by increasing subsidy. So let’s look forward to cuts in services and/or front line staff and a whopping great fare increase once the General Election is out of the way in 2015!