19th July Lockdown Easing - Observations and Compliance

[Green tractor]

Constantly in and out of 'snap' lockdowns like a yo-yo for years, as per Australia?




MARK

SO I presume your plan is to let the virus just do its thing totally uncontrolled and sweep through the population?

 

[Merseysider]

The alternative is the health service unable to cope, I presume you view a number of your friends and family as worthless collateral damage?

I would ask that you refrain from over the top emotive language and make your points using facts and evidence.

I would be devastated if a member of my family were to have died, but it would have been far from the first funeral I’ve attended in my lifetime, and unfortunately death is a part of life.

SO I presume your plan is to let the virus just do its thing totally uncontrolled and sweep through the population?

Nowhere did he say this?

 

[Dent]

SO I presume your plan is to let the virus just do its thing totally uncontrolled and sweep through the population?

So yet another straw man, and still no explanation of your proposed exit plan

 

[Green tractor]

I don't know what I would do, but clearly letting the virus sweep through the population naturally was just not an option. The long term solution would of been to expand the health service to cope, but that can't be done overnight. If we hadn't had a vaccine there might of been effective treatments (better than what we have) instead.

People are moaning about the restrictions, but there really was no alternative to imposing restrictions of some sort. Which restrictions, and when is up for debate.

 

[Merseysider]

The long term solution would of [sic] been to expand the health service to cope, but that can't be done overnight. If we hadn't had a vaccine there might of [sic] been effective treatments (better than what we have) instead.

I’m not sure what you’re trying to argue here, but expanding the health service did, to an extent, take place - look up all the (mostly unused) Nightingale hospitals.

Your point about having “effective treatments” doesn’t really add up to much as it’s a pure hypothetical.

People are “moaning about the restrictions” as, by and large, there was no transparency to them, a lack of empirical evidence as to their effectiveness, and a complete lack of consistency across the country.

When London got it bad, they initially got Tier 2.

When Manchester got it bad, we got dumped in Tier 3.

Note: it’s would have, might have, could have, etc

 

[Green tractor]

I’m not sure what you’re trying to argue here, but expanding the health service did, to an extent, take place - look up all the (mostly unused) Nightingale hospitals.

Your point about having “effective treatments” doesn’t really add up to much as it’s a pure hypothetical.

People are “moaning about the restrictions” as, by and large, there was no transparency to them, a lack of empirical evidence as to their effectiveness, and a complete lack of consistency across the country.

When London got it bad, they initially got Tier 2.

When Manchester got it bad, we got dumped in Tier 3.

Note: it’s would have, might have, could have, etc

They were largely a white elephant, there wasn't the staff to man them. No good having a hospital if you haven't got the doctors and nurses.

 

[Merseysider]

They were largely a white elephant

Agreed

 

[Dent]

They were largely a white elephant, there wasn't the staff to man them. No good having a hospital if you haven't got the doctors and nurses.

As I understand it there were plans to source staff from elsewhere within the NHS, and to re-train some retired medical staff. If might not be ideal, but do you have a better plan to source staff in the timescale necessary for it to be an exit plan?

 

[Freightmaster]

As I understand it there were plans to source staff from elsewhere within the NHS, and to re-train some retired medical staff. If might not be ideal, but do you have a better plan to source staff in the timescale necessary for it to be an exit plan?

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that some posters in this thread don't actually want an exit plan;
but would prefer "a low level of restrictions" (no doubt including masks) to be in place indefinitely as they
are scared of going back to 2019 normality to protect the NHS...




MARK

 

[Berliner]

Surely the staff to run the nightingale hospitals were already working for the NHS? Large chunks of it were shut down when Covid became the only thing deemed worthy of seeing a doctor for. It's still not back to normal. I myself am waiting for a check up I should have had in May 2020.

 

[NorthKent1989]

over 100, 000 people, over and above what would be expected have lost their lives in the UK alone, it is a big deal

There have been pretty bad flu years, how come there was no focus on those deaths? Sorry but at this point a reaction to a rise in a respiratory virus is hysterical this isn’t the apocalypse we thought would happen in March 2020

 

[Green tractor]

There have been pretty bad flu years, how come there was no focus on those deaths? Sorry but at this point a reaction to a rise in a respiratory virus is hysterical this isn’t the apocalypse we thought would happen in March 2020

I'm talking about total excess deaths over and above what we would expect. Flu deaths were quite low as the suppression measures also suppressed flu and covid doubtless finished off quite a few people who would of died of flu in other circumstances.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Aug 2021 ==

As I understand it there were plans to source staff from elsewhere within the NHS, and to re-train some retired medical staff. If might not be ideal, but do you have a better plan to source staff in the timescale necessary for it to be an exit plan?

Lots of retired staff did return, some of whom caught covid and died, but you cant just suddenly get your hands on 1000s of medical staff from nowhere, and re training takes time too, what about the jobs they were doing in the NHS before? Somebody will have to do those.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Aug 2021 ==

As I understand it there were plans to source staff from elsewhere within the NHS, and to re-train some retired medical staff. If might not be ideal, but do you have a better plan to source staff in the timescale necessary for it to be an exit plan?

Lots of retired staff did return, some of whom caught covid and died, but you cant just suddenly get your hands on 1000s of medical staff from nowhere, and re training takes time too, what about the jobs they were doing in the NHS before? Somebody will have to do those.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Aug 2021 ==

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that some posters in this thread don't actually want an exit plan;
but would prefer "a low level of restrictions" (no doubt including masks) to be in place indefinitely as they
are scared of going back to 2019 normality to protect the NHS...




MARK

I'm not scared of returning to normality, but I recognise there is a major public health issue and to avoid yo-yoing and out of measures we need to be cautious.

I had a brother who was hard, he didn't need to stop work and rest when he had a very sore throat, which became a very bad cold, then septicemia, then pneumonia. So I'm quite happy to be a wimp, it might save a few lives.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I'm talking about total excess deaths over and above what we would expect. Flu deaths were quite low as the suppression measures also suppressed flu and covid doubtless finished off quite a few people who would of died of flu in other circumstances.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Aug 2021 ==




I'm not scared of returning to normality, but I recognise there is a major public health issue and to avoid yo-yoing and out of measures we need to be cautious.

I had a brother who was hard, he didn't need to stop work and rest when he had a very sore throat, which became a very bad cold, then septicemia, then pneumonia. So I'm quite happy to be a wimp, it might save a few lives.

If we’re talking about Flu deaths in 2020 then forget it, flu disappeared that year, look at how much the NHS was overwhelmed in 2018 due to flu rates being high that year.

As for you being happy to be a ‘wimp’ (not my words) to save a few lives, let’s just not leave our beds! We could die of electrocution if we put the kettle on, or fall and slip down the stairs, not leaving our beds will definitely prevent those deaths, that might also save a few lives.

Life goes on and people die everyday that’s a sad fact of life, plenty of people committed suicide in lockdown because of poor mental health, loss of employment, isolation, loss of businesses, anxiety about housing etc I don’t see any outcry for victims of suicide or the worst effects of lockdowns have caused, so by all means stay at home if you want to save lives, but the rest of the world has to move on.

 

[yorkie]

I'm talking about total excess deaths over and above what we would expect...

You'd need to look over the course of several years; we had some very good years in terms of flu, which meant more people were susceptible last year.

So I'm quite happy to be a wimp, it might save a few lives.

Can you clarify what, exactly, you are suggesting might save a few lives?

The position we are in now is that we have to get back to normal as soon as possible; failing to do that would cost more lives in the long run. You also cannot dismiss quality of life.

 

[Green tractor]

If we’re talking about Flu deaths in 2020 then forget it, flu disappeared that year, look at how much the NHS was overwhelmed in 2018 due to flu rates being high that year.

As for you being happy to be a ‘wimp’ (not my words) to save a few lives, let’s just not leave our beds! We could die of electrocution if we put the kettle on, or fall and slip down the stairs, not leaving our beds will definitely prevent those deaths, that might also save a few lives.

Life goes on and people die everyday that’s a sad fact of life, plenty of people committed suicide in lockdown because of poor mental health, loss of employment, isolation, loss of businesses, anxiety about housing etc I don’t see any outcry for victims of suicide or the worst effects of lockdowns have caused, so by all means stay at home if you want to save lives, but the rest of the world has to move on.

Flu did not disappear completely, although there was very little around

There was not a big spike in suicides there might of been slightly more but nothing statically noticeable, it is all about finding the right balance. There are lots of people who seem to think we should of just carried on as normal and accepted the collapse of the health service and 100's of thousands of extra deaths. I am not the only one remaining cautious, the world has not fully returned to normal, and in the UK that is in good part due to peoples own choice now. Just look at the number of people still wearing face coverings, it's not law in England any more but plenty of people are still choosing to do it

You'd need to look over the course of several years; we had some very good years in terms of flu, which meant more people were susceptible last year.

Can you clarify what, exactly, you are suggesting might save a few lives?

The position we are in now is that we have to get back to normal as soon as possible; failing to do that would cost more lives in the long run. You also cannot dismiss quality of life.

I'm referring to deaths over and above the 5 year average, the only real way to measure the full effect of the pandemic.

Being careful, washing/sanitizing hands, yes even wearing a mask in the supermarket etc, getting vaccinated (there are plenty who are not) isolating if you have been in contact with somebody who has covid or if you have it your self. Quality of life cannot be dismissed, but if you are now dead, you don't have any quality of life at all. You cant just dismiss all the people who died (including those who volunteered to help in the NHS) as worthless.

 

[Yew]

But there was a plan, and we had one of the worlds best plans, for a Flu pandemic, but the government chose to ignore it. It involved stopping big public gatherings (ie the Cheltenham festival) and closing pubs. It was the other party in power during foot and mouth in 2002 (?) and that was equally badly managed, indeed it remains the worlds worst ever outbreak.

I didn't out plan say something along the lines of "the UK government does not plan on stoping large gatherings for any pandemic, no matter how severe"?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Aug 2021 ==

100's of thousands of extra deaths.

There's no evidence of that, countries/states that carried on with much more normality to us have not seen significantly greater death rates.

 

[Dent]

Lots of retired staff did return, some of whom caught covid and died, but you cant just suddenly get your hands on 1000s of medical staff from nowhere, and re training takes time too, what about the jobs they were doing in the NHS before? Somebody will have to do those.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Aug 2021 ==



Lots of retired staff did return, some of whom caught covid and died, but you cant just suddenly get your hands on 1000s of medical staff from nowhere, and re training takes time too, what about the jobs they were doing in the NHS before? Somebody will have to do those.

That's my point. You were the one proposing increasing hospital capacity as an exit strategy, so how do you propose to get the staff in a suitable timescale to form an exit strategy?

 

[Green tractor]

That's my point. You were the one proposing increasing hospital capacity as an exit strategy, so how do you propose to get the staff in a suitable timescale to form an exit strategy?

I don't know, but clearly just carrying on as normal wasn't an option, something had to be done to keep the epidemic within the capacity of the health service.

 

[Dent]

I don't know, but clearly just carrying on as normal wasn't an option, something had to be done to keep the epidemic within the capacity of the health service.

So you proposed something as an exit strategy which you hadn't thought through, you don't know how it could possible work, and I think we all know it couldn't possible work. That's not very helpful.

 

[yorkie]

Flu did not disappear completely

You could never eliminate such a virus!

although there was very little around

Of course, this was to be expected.

There was not a big spike in suicides there might of been slightly more but nothing statically noticeable

The imposition of restrictions caused major mental health problems; suicides did increase but mental health is about far more than that.

There are lots of people who seem to think we should of just carried on as normal and accepted the collapse of the health service and 100's of thousands of extra deaths.

You said that earlier and people rebutted your claims. Did you read the replies? I refer you to those replies.

I am not the only one remaining cautious, the world has not fully returned to normal, and in the UK that is in good part due to peoples own choice now. Just look at the number of people still wearing face coverings, it's not law in England any more but plenty of people are still choosing to do it

Because they have been mislead about the effectiveness of such measures, mislead about the purpose and effectiveness of vaccines, and also worried that others will judge them for not carrying on with the charade. Again this has all been covered before; I refer you to previous posts.

I'm referring to deaths over and above the 5 year average, the only real way to measure the full effect of the pandemic.

You'd need to look longer term than that, and also not forget about population increases. But it is inevitable that a pandemic is going to result in an increase in deaths and the idea that this could somehow be eliminated is fanciful.

Being careful, washing/sanitizing hands, yes even wearing a mask in the supermarket etc, getting vaccinated (there are plenty who are not) isolating if you have been in contact with somebody who has covid or if you have it your self.

This virus is likely to go the same way as others, such as OC43 before it, and the only path to normality is to build up similar levels of immunity. Vaccinations will massively speed up this process. The idea that wearing of standard masks will make any difference is fanciful but let's discuss that in the appropriate thread; feel free to post your evidence there and we will debate it on that thread.

Quality of life cannot be dismissed,

But that is what people like you effectively do

but if you are now dead, you don't have any quality of life at all. You cant just dismiss all the people who died (including those who volunteered to help in the NHS) as worthless.

This is a false dichotomy and a straw man argument.

Are you dismissing the lives of those who committed suicide? Do you deny that lockdowns cause or exacerbate economic depravation and that costs lives? What do you think the average age of those who died with Sars-CoV-2 is?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Aug 2021 ==

I don't know

That much is obvious.

 

[Green tractor]

So you proposed something as an exit strategy which you hadn't thought through, you don't know how it could possible work, and I think we all know it couldn't possible work. That's not very helpful.

What would your plan of been then?

 

[Dent]

What would your plan of been then?

That doesn't answer the point that you proposed something without thinking it through, attempts at deflection are not helpful to a rational discussion.

 

[Green tractor]

The imposition of restrictions caused major mental health problems; suicides did increase but mental health is about far more than that.

I know all about mental health problems, I've had 2 nervous breakdowns, suffered from being traumatized and had years of depression in the past. You can't just dismiss deaths either, it is about finding the right balance.

You have also highly selectively quoted what I have said.

Lots of people are still choosing to be cautious, and it seems to be really upsetting you, you are raving on in another thread about people who choose to wear face coverings when it is their own choice and of no consequence to you.

How have we been mislead about the effectiveness of vaccines?

At the end of the day, life is now more or less back to normal. What is it you want to do that you now can't?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Aug 2021 ==

That doesn't answer the point that you proposed something without thinking it through, attempts at deflection are not helpful to a rational discussion.

And you seemed to say that the current strategy was totally wrong with out giving a alternative

 

[HST274]

You are probably right but can I have evidence/websites/studies for the increased mental health problems with direct cause of the lockdown (or indirect as in coming from job loss)?

 

[NorthKent1989]

Flu did not disappear completely, although there was very little around

There was not a big spike in suicides there might of been slightly more but nothing statically noticeable, it is all about finding the right balance. There are lots of people who seem to think we should of just carried on as normal and accepted the collapse of the health service and 100's of thousands of extra deaths. I am not the only one remaining cautious, the world has not fully returned to normal, and in the UK that is in good part due to peoples own choice now. Just look at the number of people still wearing face coverings, it's not law in England any more but plenty of people are still choosing to do it

Flu doesn’t go away just because a newer version of it comes into the scene! It was still around in a big way.

Can you show me that there hasn’t been a spike in suicides that’s “not statistically noticeable” we are facing a big mental health crisis, depression and addictions has gone up but all people are obsessed with is Covid.

Lockdown 1 was needed as we didn’t know what we were up against, however we have screwed up with people’s mental health and the economy without a single thought for balancing different needs, the government dove in head first due to pressure and wanting to be seen as doing something.

I don’t deny that Covid is dangerous for some, but some countries reaction to it is still utterly irrational and aiming for “zero Covid” but I won’t deny that we have bigger issues than Covid to come.

We got to get this whole not putting the NHS under pressure way of thinking firmly in the bin from here outwards.

I think you may find mask wearing has dropped by at least 50% including in London where TfL still demands you wear a mask on their services, yet I’ve seen plenty not wear on, including myself.

 

[Green tractor]

Can you show me that there hasn’t been a spike in suicides that’s “not statistically noticeable” we are facing a big mental health crisis, depression and addictions has gone up but all people are obsessed with is Covid.

Quarterly suicide death registrations in England - Office for National Statistics

Provisional rate and number of suicide deaths registered in England per quarter. Includes 2001 to 2019 registrations and provisional data for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2020.

www.ons.gov.uk

I don't deny their is a mental health crisis. Made worse by the pandemic and/or the response to it Suicide isn't the only outcome of a mental health problem, there are lots of people who spend their whole life in a twisted mess. But saying that there was a big spike in suicides is just not true.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Quarterly suicide death registrations in England - Office for National Statistics

Provisional rate and number of suicide deaths registered in England per quarter. Includes 2001 to 2019 registrations and provisional data for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2020.

www.ons.gov.uk

I don't deny their is a mental health crisis. Made worse by the pandemic and/or the response to it Suicide isn't the only outcome of a mental health problem, there are lots of people who spend their whole life in a twisted mess. But saying that there was a big spike in suicides is just not true.

Its largely been ignored in the media and fair enough that suicides may not have spiked much, but other mental health issues have and that has been ignored by the Covid obsessed media

 

[DustyBin]

Quarterly suicide death registrations in England - Office for National Statistics

Provisional rate and number of suicide deaths registered in England per quarter. Includes 2001 to 2019 registrations and provisional data for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2020.

www.ons.gov.uk

I don't deny their is a mental health crisis. Made worse by the pandemic and/or the response to it Suicide isn't the only outcome of a mental health problem, there are lots of people who spend their whole life in a twisted mess. But saying that there was a big spike in suicides is just not true.

In terms of suicides we’ll have a clear answer in September when the updated statistics are published. It’s worth noting that suicides are subject to an inquest so there is always a delay in them being added to the data. That’s not to say that there will be a significant increase though.

I think the impact on mental health generally has been far more significant but it’s difficult to quantify. Alcohol and drug abuse however certainly looks to have increased over the last 18 months. Anecdotally I know people who’ve struggled as a result of lockdowns and other restrictions directly, and others who’ve struggled having been affected economically (losing your income is no small issue). I expect most of us have similar anecdotes.

The other thing that seems to be brushed under the carpet is the impact on education and the development of young children. My GF’s sister has a child who’s spent half of her life living under restrictions and it shows (other parents she knows are saying the same thing apparently). I don’t think we’ll know the long term impact on toddler age children for a while yet, but they’ve certainly missed out on some early years development. Hopefully any damage can be undone.

 

[VauxhallandI]

In terms of suicides we’ll have a clear answer in September when the updated statistics are published. It’s worth noting that suicides are subject to an inquest so there is always a delay in them being added to the data. That’s not to say that there will be a significant increase though.

I think the impact on mental health generally has been far more significant but it’s difficult to quantify. Alcohol and drug abuse however certainly looks to have increased over the last 18 months. Anecdotally I know people who’ve struggled as a result of lockdowns and other restrictions directly, and others who’ve struggled having been affected economically (losing your income is no small issue). I expect most of us have similar anecdotes.

The other thing that seems to be brushed under the carpet is the impact on education and the development of young children. My GF’s sister has a child who’s spent half of her life living under restrictions and it shows (other parents she knows are saying the same thing apparently). I don’t think we’ll know the long term impact on toddler age children for a while yet, but they’ve certainly missed out on some early years development. Hopefully any damage can be undone.

I'm also sure with a suicide verdict they won't just write Covid like they do for every hospital death!

 

[NorthKent1989]

The other thing that seems to be brushed under the carpet is the impact on education and the development of young children. My GF’s sister has a child who’s spent half of her life living under restrictions and it shows (other parents she knows are saying the same thing apparently). I don’t think we’ll know the long term impact on toddler age children for a while yet, but they’ve certainly missed out on some early years development. Hopefully any damage can be undone.

This is true sadly, children have lost nearly two years of their education, many special needs children have been left behind.