19th July Lockdown Easing - Observations and Compliance

[Cdd89]

It would have to be done slowly.

I don’t think there would be the funds/resources to “do it slowly”, whatever the ideal might be health-wise.

 

[DustyBin]

I don’t think there would be the funds/resources to “do it slowly”, whatever the ideal might be health-wise.

We’d have had to return to normal rapidly in the spring and get it out of the way well before other seasonal illnesses kick in. Natural herd immunity (although not in the true sense, @yorkie knows the correct term) would have been our only option, however much the concept is derided by some.

 

[Green tractor]

When it reaches a point where the health service cant cope and you cant get rid of the bodies quick enough what do you do then? Shoot the ill and dispose of the bodies at sea?

 

[Merseysider]

When it reaches a point where the health service cant cope and you cant get rid of the bodies quick enough what do you do then? Shoot the ill and dispose of the bodies at sea?

Don’t give the tories ideas...

 

[Green tractor]

Same here. People who want to wear them do, those who don't don't. Going through the Severn tunnel I noticed that no one bothered to put on a mask if they weren't already wearing one. This didn't appear to be a problem for anyone.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Aug 2021 ==


Sooner or later there is likely to be a new disease for which there is no vaccine. I hope I'm long gone before that happens. Given what I've seen over the past 18 months I don't think I'd want to live through that scenario.

The last 18 months could of been worse; you could be living in a war zone, you could of watched all your family be killed, you could be held prisoner and be getting tortured. You could be in Afghanistan and be about to be ruled by the Taliban again (or already under their control.) There are much worse situations to be in, and at least now the end is a reasonable distance away

 

[Merseysider]

The last 18 months could of been worse; you could be living in a war zone, you could of watched all your family be killed, you could be held prisoner and be getting tortured. You could be in Afghanistan and be about to be ruled by the Taliban again (or already under their control.) There are much worse situations to be in, and at least now the end is a reasonable distance away

That doesn’t mean we should drop our expectations as to a reasonable quality of life and suddenly become willing to give up all our freedoms every time a new virus rounds the corner.

 

[Green tractor]

That doesn’t mean we should drop our expectations as to a reasonable quality of life and suddenly become willing to give up all our freedoms every time a new virus rounds the corner.

But it's not like it happens on a regular basis is it? It is (hopefully) very much a once in a lifetime experience. Lots of people in this country lived through 2 world wars.

Lots of people have given up their lives, then there are the thousands with long covid, the medical staff who now have PTSD because of all the deaths they saw. Our sacrifice has been tiny by comparison, and the vaccines mean that there is a end to it in the near future.

 

[NorthOxonian]

The last 18 months could of been worse; you could be living in a war zone, you could of watched all your family be killed, you could be held prisoner and be getting tortured. You could be in Afghanistan and be about to be ruled by the Taliban again (or already under their control.) There are much worse situations to be in, and at least now the end is a reasonable distance away

You know nothing about the situation that the rest of us have been in over the last 18 months. There are many people, both on here and in wider society, who have found it incredibly difficult mentally and who have been pushed close to breaking point. There are millions who have lost jobs or opportunities, and hundreds of thousands who have had educations ruined. Many people, especially the elderly, have seen their health deteriorate rapidly - my own granddad seems to have aged about a decade in the last year and has gone from fairly independent and healthy to being in a terrible way due to isolation.

But at least we're not in a war, and it could have been a lot worse.

 

[Green tractor]

You know nothing about the situation that the rest of us have been in over the last 18 months. There are many people, both on here and in wider society, who have found it incredibly difficult mentally and who have been pushed close to breaking point. There are millions who have lost jobs or opportunities, and hundreds of thousands who have had educations ruined. Many people, especially the elderly, have seen their health deteriorate rapidly - my own granddad seems to have aged about a decade in the last year and has gone from fairly independent and healthy to being in a terrible way due to isolation.

But at least we're not in a war, and it could have been a lot worse.

Thousands of people have died, and what about all the medical staff who now have PTSD? Carrying on as normal was just not an option, nor is zero covid. It has been difficult for many people. The government in the UK went from do nothing to full lockdown in about 10 days, and that is the real source of the problem, the lack of consistency. Perhaps if we had a earlier lighter lockdown last spring and kept the virus at a low level to start with, we wouldn't of needed the more draconian measures at all.

Does anybody realistically think society could of just carried on as normal?

 

[Dent]

But it's not like it happens on a regular basis is it? It is (hopefully) very much a once in a lifetime experience. Lots of people in this country lived through 2 world wars.

Lots of people have given up their lives, then there are the thousands with long covid, the medical staff who now have PTSD because of all the deaths they saw. Our sacrifice has been tiny by comparison, and the vaccines mean that there is a end to it in the near future.

First of all, you are making the Fallacy of Relative Privation.

Secondly, please can we stop spreading this dangerous false narrative of "sacrifices". A sacrifice is a personal choice, the restrictions people have suffered at the hands of the government have not been by choice. Spreading the false narrative that the victims have "made sacrifices" rather than the truth that they have suffered at the hands of the government is dangerous as it allows the government to escape the blame that rightly lies with them for the suffering they have caused.

 

[Green tractor]

the truth that they have suffered at the hands of the government is dangerous as it allows the government to escape the blame that rightly lies with them for the suffering they have caused.

What would your alternative plan of involved then? Whatever the UK government did there would of been suffering

 

[Merseysider]

The government in the UK went from do nothing to full lockdown in about 10 days, and that is the real source of the problem, the lack of consistency.

I agree with you on this - and the lack of planning has been a consistent problem. For a rational mind there can be no doubt whatsoever that the government has, for want of a better word, tried to “wing it” throughout this pandemic.

The only positive was the massive investment in vaccines, which maybe another government wouldn’t have done, but that’s getting into hypotheticals.

Allowing non-tested senior citizens back into care homes, some of whom inevitably spread the virus.

Denying there would be a need for an Autumn lockdown, then imposing one.

Denying there would be another lockdown in Spring, then imposing one.

Insisting exams would go ahead, ordering staff to NOT make a backup plan, then cancelling exams, shafting teachers (like me) and headteachers across the country right up the arse when it turns out we have dozens of pages of extra paperwork and tons of extra assessment to complete thanks to the government’s incompetence and lack of planning.

Changing the rules on tiers with just a day or two’s notice, using completely opaque data, effectively screwing over a multitude of businesses in the process.

(Not aimed at you) - Forgive me for not listening to a word this government says, there will be many others who stopped listening a long time ago, particularly after the depilated cretin loyal servant Cummings decided to sod off to Barnard Castle.

Those who, in the past and today, choose to listen to the government’s guidance, fair enough. To those who choose to act responsibly whilst ignoring every word that comes out the mouth of the duplicitous mop Boris, I am on their side.

The government’s handling of the crisis has been a SS from start to finish, and to remain on topic, I think the time for government interventions is well and truly over - it should fall now to individual choice & responsibility.

 

[Dent]

What would your alternative plan of involved then? Whatever the UK government did there would of been suffering

There are many things which could have been done better, but they are subjects for other threads.

 

[Green tractor]

But there was a plan, and we had one of the worlds best plans, for a Flu pandemic, but the government chose to ignore it. It involved stopping big public gatherings (ie the Cheltenham festival) and closing pubs. It was the other party in power during foot and mouth in 2002 (?) and that was equally badly managed, indeed it remains the worlds worst ever outbreak.

 

[initiation]

Does anybody realistically think society could of just carried on as normal?

Straw man. No one is proposing we should have just carried on as normal and ignored everything. However the measures imposed were, in my view, grossly disproportionate and had comparitively little impact on the spread (one example source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13484). In the run up to each lockdown cases had likely already peaked as discussed in this interview with the lead of the ZOE study, and another scientist who published a peer reviewed paper into the topic

I mean put different countries' case rate profiles against each other and ask any number of expert to point out which country had the most severe NPIs or when masks were introduced or when lockdown was 'rolled back'. There is no correlation - I mean England removed essentially all restrictions and cases declined very rapidly straight away!

It involved stopping big public gatherings (ie the Cheltenham festival)

Did it? SAGE on 05/03/2020:
"SAGE agreed there is no evidence to suggest that banning very large gatherings would reduce transmission"

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888781/S0381_Thirteenth_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf

Should the Government have gone against The Science?

As for closing pubs - can you point out in a document where this was part of a pre-existing pandemic plan?


Anyway this is swering away from the thread topic. Compliance with masks very hit and miss in shops. Sometimes feels like it is 90% still wearing, a few mintues later it is 90% not wearing them. In pubs it seems to have vanished.

 

[yorkie]

How quickly would you go back to normal...

We need to be normal now! I think it's fair to say my life is back to normal, thank goodness.

The last 18 months could of been worse; you could be living in a war zone, you could of watched all your family be killed, you could be held prisoner and be getting tortured. You could be in Afghanistan and be about to be ruled by the Taliban again (or already under their control.) There are much worse situations to be in, and at least now the end is a reasonable distance away

What's that got to do with anything?

I think the replies by many other forum members to your recent posts have been excellent and I have very little to add to them.

....Natural herd immunity (although not in the true sense, @yorkie knows the correct term) ...

As with OC43 and others before it, the final stage is reaching a state of seasonal endemic equilibrium, in other words the virus will continue to circulate all year round, but will resurge in the autumn/winter before transmission rates naturally reduce once a sufficient proportion of the population have had their immunity boosted.

I see no evidence to suggest that Sars-CoV-2 won't go the same way as HCoV-OC43.

 

[NorthKent1989]

How quickly would you go back to normal, and what would you do about caring for the sick? It would have to be done slowly.

Normality needs to come back now, and to stop with the hysterics

 

[RPI]

I agree with you on this - and the lack of planning has been a consistent problem. For a rational mind there can be no doubt whatsoever that the government has, for want of a better word, tried to “wing it” throughout this pandemic.

The only positive was the massive investment in vaccines, which maybe another government wouldn’t have done, but that’s getting into hypotheticals.

Allowing non-tested senior citizens back into care homes, some of whom inevitably spread the virus.

Denying there would be a need for an Autumn lockdown, then imposing one.

Denying there would be another lockdown in Spring, then imposing one.

Insisting exams would go ahead, ordering staff to NOT make a backup plan, then cancelling exams, shafting teachers (like me) and headteachers across the country right up the arse when it turns out we have dozens of pages of extra paperwork and tons of extra assessment to complete thanks to the government’s incompetence and lack of planning.

Changing the rules on tiers with just a day or two’s notice, using completely opaque data, effectively screwing over a multitude of businesses in the process.

(Not aimed at you) - Forgive me for not listening to a word this government says, there will be many others who stopped listening a long time ago, particularly after the depilated cretin loyal servant Cummings decided to sod off to Barnard Castle.

Those who, in the past and today, choose to listen to the government’s guidance, fair enough. To those who choose to act responsibly whilst ignoring every word that comes out the mouth of the duplicitous mop Boris, I am on their side.

The government’s handling of the crisis has been a SS from start to finish, and to remain on topic, I think the time for government interventions is well and truly over - it should fall now to individual choice & responsibility.

Whilst I am inclined to agree with most of this, we do have the benefit of hindsight.

 

[Green tractor]

I have read various postings by a chap who too part in a pandemic exercise in the early 2000's who said this was in the plan, basically you stop big public gatherings stop poeple moving around the country. Part of the prblem is that Flu has a known transmission/hospitalisation/death rate whereas Covid 19 (st the time) didn't

 

[initiation]

Perhaps if we had a earlier lighter lockdown last spring and kept the virus at a low level to start with, we wouldn't of needed the more draconian measures at all.

Always worth highlighting Peru at this point. They imposed a nationwide lockdown in the pandemic - it was one of the earliest and very strict. Where are they now? The worst death rate in the world (per capita). Czech Republic is another example - praised for it's early response but had a bad second wave.
Of course there will be many factors feeding into this death rate, but the wistful idea that if we had lockdown earlier all of this could have been avoided is unsupported speculation.

 

[Green tractor]

We need to be normal now! I think it's fair to say my life is back to normal, thank goodness.

Right, then that's all good, no need to moan about anything any more then, or get upset when you see people who's life isn't fully back to normal or see people wearing face masks. Do you think life is back to normal for all those who have long covid, or who have lost loved ones?

Normality needs to come back now, and to stop with the hysterics

over 100, 000 people, over and above what would be expected have lost their lives in the UK alone, it is a big deal

 

[Cdd89]

over 100, 000 people, over and above what would be expected

“Expected” over what measuring period? If we take a five year measuring period the excess might not be that high at all.

 

[Green tractor]

Always worth highlighting Peru at this point. They imposed a nationwide lockdown in the pandemic - it was one of the earliest and very strict. Where are they now? The worst death rate in the world (per capita). Czech Republic is another example - praised for it's early response but had a bad second wave.
Of course there will be many factors feeding into this death rate, but the wistful idea that if we had lockdown earlier all of this could have been avoided is unsupported speculation.

What I'm saying is if we had a earlier, lighter lockdown, we could possibly of kept the virus at a manageable level with out some of the more harsh restrictions, just kept a low level of restrictions in place consistently.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Aug 2021 ==

“Expected” over what measuring period?

I'm talking about excess deaths over and above the 5 year average, it is the only real way of measuring the effect of the pandemic.

 

[initiation]

I have read various postings by a chap who too part in a pandemic exercise in the early 2000's who said this was in the plan, basically you stop big public gatherings stop poeple moving around the country.

Ok so big public gatherings pubs and travel restrictons formed a key part of an influenza pandemic plan right? Let's have a look at the 2011 version (so after your early 2000s reference).

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf

No reference to closing pubs or restaurants
Large gatherings:" There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect"
Travel restrictions: "There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission"
Conclusion: "For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions."

Not being rude but do you actually check this stuff before posting it?

What I'm saying is if we had a earlier, lighter lockdown, we could possibly of kept the virus at a manageable level with out some of the more harsh restrictions, just kept a low level of restrictions in place consistently.

And what I am saying (and others such as the paper from Stanford university) is that globally, there is no clear correlation between implementing harsh NPIs and outcomes.

 

[Dent]

What I'm saying is if we had a earlier, lighter lockdown, we could possibly of kept the virus at a manageable level with out some of the more harsh restrictions, just kept a low level of restrictions in place consistently.

Then what, how do you then exit those restrictions?

 

[Green tractor]

The alternative is the health service unable to cope, I presume you view a number of your friends and family as worthless collateral damage?

Would you like to be the doctor who decides who gets treated and who doesn't?

The exit is fortunately vaccines, but we could well not of been so lucky.

 

[Dent]

The alternative is the health service unable to cope, I presume you view a number of your friends and family as worthless collateral damage?

Would you like to be the doctor who decides who gets treated and who doesn't?

Please stop making straw man arguments and scare stories, neither adds anything to a mature, rational discussion.

The exit is fortunately vaccines, but we could well not of been so lucky.

So if we didn't have a vaccine, what would then be your plan to end the restrictions?

 

[farleigh]

When it reaches a point where the health service cant cope and you cant get rid of the bodies quick enough what do you do then? Shoot the ill and dispose of the bodies at sea?

Sounds like a plan to me.

More seriously, some people are always banging on that the NHS is on the verge of collapse and it then doesn't collapse. Every winter it is on the verge of collapse according to some.

 

[Green tractor]

The health service struggled to cope in the last winter, Urgent cancer treatment had to be stopped, doing nothing clearly was not an option, nor is eliminating covid totally

The economy and the human race would adapt to a different way of life. Mass international travel has only come about relatively recently since the invention of the jet engine. A few years ago people were saying that the whole rural economy would collapse if fox hunting was banned.

 

[Freightmaster]

So if we didn't have a vaccine, what would then be your plan to end the restrictions?

Constantly in and out of 'snap' lockdowns like a yo-yo for years, as per Australia?




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