15 minute cities the future?

[HSTEd]

There will be more jobs for lower income people closer to their homes if that's where more shops and businesses are. It won't eradicate driving but it will reduce car dependency which is a good thing.

Given we are in the middle of turmoil which is likely to resort in major reductions in total retail employment and the centralisation of the rest into delivery or out of town supermarket type areas, I'm not sure basing urban planning on the continued existance of large numbers of low value retail jobs is a good idea!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2023 ==

It's just simply another idea of reviving the high street with a new name. Quite how it's taken the dark turn it has I don't know

Because reviving the high street isn't going to happen by itself, which is why all previous attempts have failed miserably, the only way to make it happen is totalitarian compulsion.

Pretty much everything I need is within a 15 minute walk (supermarkets, pubs, hospital, dentists, gyms, shops, tube station, bus stops, parks, cinemas, schools). For many people living in cities in cities it will be the same.

I live in a major city and its certainly not true for me!
It takes me six or seven minutes to even make it to the nearest bus stop with a usable bus service, and I'm comparably lucky on that score.
The ethnic makeup of the area also makes it 20+ minutes to the nearest pub.

It takes the best part of an hour to get to a cinema depending on traffic on the bus, on foot you'd have no chance.
I have a small and not particularly well stocked Aldi within a few minutes, but after that its 30 or 40 minutes on foot to a "proper" supermarket.

Nobody is going to tell anybody you can't take that job as it's a 16 minute walk away from your home. Anyone who thinks this really needs to come back to reality

No, they will just wreck transport options to make it practically impossible to travel long distances, they won't actually stop you from doing it.
See the "traffic filters" which are designed specifically to make a car far less useful in Oxford, even if they don't technically stop you driving from point A to point B.

 

[Sorcerer]

Yeah it is. Just because it works in a few pockets doesn't mean it will in most. A 15 minute walk to a job is a pipe dream for most. Frankly there are plenty of suburbs you can't even cross in that time.

Once again reality crashes in front of ideas dreamt up by people with sod all idea how the gaff actually works.

It's not a perfect piece of urban planning, but anyone who can't access a job within 15 minutes will, ideally, also have public transport options to get to work outside of that radius, or will have space on the roads to drive because not as many people will need to drive to other basic amenities that are now already 15 minute walks away. The idea is to enable as much walkability/cyclability within cities as possible and freeing up the roads for people who actually need to use their cars and reduce car dependency amongst the wider population.

 

[Bantamzen]

It's just simply another idea of reviving the high street with a new name. Quite how it's taken the dark turn it has I don't know

Pretty much everything I need is within a 15 minute walk (supermarkets, pubs, hospital, dentists, gyms, shops, tube station, bus stops, parks, cinemas, schools). For many people living in cities in cities it will be the same.

Nobody is going to tell anybody you can't take that job as it's a 16 minute walk away from your home. Anyone who thinks this really needs to come back to reality

Who here is even saying that? But what I am saying is that this just isn't going to happen on most places. Sure there will be few examples where it falls beautifully into place, probably with the help of a substantial amount of local/central government money to make sure it does work. But for most places nothing will change.

It's not a perfect piece of urban planning, but anyone who can't access a job within 15 minutes will, ideally, also have public transport options to get to work outside of that radius, or will have space on the roads to drive because not as many people will need to drive to other basic amenities that are now already 15 minute walks away. The idea is to enable as much walkability/cyclability within cities as possible and freeing up the roads for people who actually need to use their cars and reduce car dependency amongst the wider population.

I would love nothing more than a public transport system that could connect in that way. I'd also like to win a big bag of money on the Euros on Friday. Sadly neither are very likely because, well ideas like a wide scale 15 min city policy need lots of big bags of money. And well, we should all be able to see the problem here.

 

[miklcct]

Because the only way planners have to make 15 minute cities is to make long distance journeys as hard as possible to force people to rely on the poor quality services near to them.

Planners can decree that amenities will open, but they can't actually make them do so.

15 minute cities are based upon the assumption that the population can support a high density of shops, services etc such that they can be spread around so that everyone can be within 15 minutes of them.
With escalating labour costs, I find it extremely doubtful this can really be true for a wide range of services without driving densities into the range associated with the Kowloon Walled City.

The entire concept is based around the idea of a huge supply of cheap labour that can be used to staff all these shops and other services, and it simply doesn't exist in the UK and hasn't in decades.
What will actually happen is a handful of overpriced corner shops will be the only game in town, which people will only use when "traffic filters" et al are used to restrict travel to destinations further afield.

EDIT:

To clarify, in essence the large distant supermarket model won because it is more staff efficient and can offer a far superior retail experience, especially in an environment with high labour costs.
The same is true for a bunch of other services and amenities. The only way to reverse this trend is to use "regulation" to destroy the experience of using these places such that the markedly inferior local option becomes preferable.

So the thing we should do is to drive down labour cost, by introducing cheap labours into the country to provide these essential services.

You can have large supermarkets without forcing people to use cars, but to be able to you need to diverge from the 15 minute dogma a bit and allow development that doesn't fit into the neat 15 minute villages. It takes me about 40 minutes to get the out of town supermarket by bus, which isn't ideal but still very doable on the weekend

Of course a 15-minute town isn't going to contain a large supermarket, but it should contain good quality public transport which can carry people to a large supermarket to do their weekly shops.

And what about work? Or all they all just going to do jobs down the local mill or mine...??

This is what a commuter train / bus for.

 

[Sorcerer]

I would love nothing more than a public transport system that could connect in that way. I'd also like to win a big bag of money on the Euros on Friday. Sadly neither are very likely because, well ideas like a wide scale 15 min city policy need lots of big bags of money. And well, we should all be able to see the problem here.

If there is going to be an issue relating to the costs of implementing 15 minute cities on a widescale, I would expect it to be more related to how this country builds infrastructure along with the lack of political will rather than the actual costs themselves.

 

[DC1989]

I live in a major city and its certainly not true for me!
It takes me six or seven minutes to even make it to the nearest bus stop with a usable bus service, and I'm comparably lucky on that score.
The ethnic makeup of the area also makes it 20+ minutes to the nearest pub.

So if they build a new pub 5 minutes walk from you you'd be happy right?

 

[HSTEd]

So if they build a new pub 5 minutes walk from you you'd be happy right?

I might be happy if there was any chance it would stay open long term, but there simply isn't a high enough density of people who use pubs to justify it.

With pubs closing at around 3% per year it is folly to believe that many new ones are going to open (and remain open long term)

 

[DC1989]

I might be happy if there was any chance it would stay open long term, but there simply isn't a high enough density of people who use pubs to justify it.

With pubs closing at around 3% per year it is folly to believe that many new ones are going to open (and remain open long term)

Right. I'm struggling to understand what exactly people are against then.

 

[jon81uk]

I love this splendid idea that many people would be able to work within 15 minutes walk. Of course its all fluff, unicorns and rainbows. Many suburban areas could barely sustain a handful of jobs in that distance, let alone for a significant proportion of the population. I sometimes wonder if the people who dream up such ideas get out all that often.

I don't think its every been suggested that people would be able work with 15 minutes walk.
But they should have access to services including buses that give the option to get to work without driving.

 

[HSTEd]

Right. I'm struggling to understand what exactly people are against then.

Because the only way that this solution can be made to work is by compelling people (edit: either directly or indirectly) to use these services rather than more distant ones, and/or creating a huge underclass living in grinding poverty who will provide the extraordinarily low cost labour necessary to make them economically sensible.

EDIT:
In the modern era, given the high and ever climbing cost of labour, these sorts of amenities necessarily operate on extraordinarily thin margins and must use economies of scale to survive. You can't just decree that there will be a pub in every neighbourhood or a corner shop on every corner, because there is no way they could survive without huge government subsidy. That is, unless you take away everyone's ability, directly or indirectly, to travel further to more attractive alternatives.

 

[AlterEgo]

You can't just decree that there will be a pub in every neighbourhood or a corner shop on every corner, because there is no way they could survive without huge government subsidy.

That isn't what 15 minute cities are though. It's just a proposal to encourage more local services and less car dependency. If you zone and encourage and nothing comes, so what? It's the market at work.

The current system works by "compelling" many low waged employees to drive and incur the significant costs and harms of driving, simply to access employment.

 

[HSTEd]

That isn't what 15 minute cities are though. It's just a proposal to encourage more local services and less car dependency. If you zone and encourage and nothing comes, so what? It's the market at work.

And yet Oxford has deployed traffic filters who's purpose is clearly to render a car useless within the city, even if they do not technically prevent you driving from point A to point B. That is, de-facto, compulsion to remain near your residence.

And if it achieves nothing, which it will without massive compulsion, what is the point of the exercise?

The current system works by "compelling" many low waged employees to drive and incur the significant costs and harms of driving, simply to access employment.

The market is free to offer alternative employment options closer to the work force, which it largely does not despite crippling labour shortages. That suggests that the existing work force is not willing to accept meaningfully lower pay and conditions to escape the car-based commute.

The true cost to the worker of car journeys to work is pretty small all things considered.

 

[renegademaster]

o make sure doctors surgeries get build as part of developments

This is a poison pill for nimbys to kill off a development more than it actually is a way to get a doctor's surgery built

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2023 ==

It's just a proposal to encourage more local services and less car dependency.

You need a way to enforce that, otherwise as he just said it's a useless decree

 

[GusB]

Because the only way that this solution can be made to work is by compelling people (edit: either directly or indirectly) to use these services rather than more distant ones, and/or creating a huge underclass living in grinding poverty who will provide the extraordinarily low cost labour necessary to make them economically sensible.

EDIT:
In the modern era, given the high and ever climbing cost of labour, these sorts of amenities necessarily operate on extraordinarily thin margins and must use economies of scale to survive. You can't just decree that there will be a pub in every neighbourhood or a corner shop on every corner, because there is no way they could survive without huge government subsidy. That is, unless you take away everyone's ability, directly or indirectly, to travel further to more attractive alternatives.

It isn't just about food shops and pubs, though. You get professional services such as solicitors, accountants etc., hairdressers/barbers, cafés/bakeries - to name but a few types of business. Small firms may well be tempted to operate from these areas because they're likely to be cheaper in terms of rent than a prime city-centre location. If the product or service they're offering is good enough then people will use them because they want to, and not necessarily because they're compelled to.

Having an available unit nearby may actually encourage some people to set up their own business.

 

[renegademaster]

It's just simply another idea of reviving the high street with a new name. Quite how it's taken the dark turn it has I don't know

Pretty much everything I need is within a 15 minute walk (supermarkets, pubs, hospital, dentists, gyms, shops, tube station, bus stops, parks, cinemas, schools). For many people living in cities in cities it will be the same.

Nobody is going to tell anybody you can't take that job as it's a 16 minute walk away from your home. Anyone who thinks this really needs to come back to reality

But some local authorities seem to be making their mission to make it more annoying to drive to that job 16 minutes away

 

[WelshBluebird]

And yet Oxford has deployed traffic filters who's purpose is clearly to render a car useless within the city,

No it isn't. The purposes of such schemes are:

• To push traffic onto main roads rather than residential roads.
• To stop residential roads being used as rat runs.
• To encourage people to consider other methods of travel except for driving.

None of which has anything to do with the whole 15 minute city discussion.

That is, de-facto, compulsion to remain near your residence.

Again not the case. It is simply to reduce how attractive driving absolutely everywhere is. In places like Oxford there are generally other methods of transport other than driving. And where there isn't - again nobody is stopping you from actually driving! And again, those who have no option to drive should be supporting these schemes because the idea is to reduce traffic on the roads that doesn't have to be there - so if you do have to drive surely you'd want less traffic?

 

[renegademaster]

No it isn't. The purposes of such schemes are:

• To push traffic onto main roads rather than residential roads.
• To stop residential roads being used as rat runs.
• To encourage people to consider other methods of travel except for driving.

None of which has anything to do with the whole 15 minute city discussion.

Again not the case. It is simply to reduce how attractive driving absolutely everywhere is. In places like Oxford there are generally other methods of transport other than driving. And where there isn't - again nobody is stopping you from actually driving! And again, those who have no option to drive should be supporting these schemes because the idea is to reduce traffic on the roads that doesn't have to be there - so if you do have to drive surely you'd want less traffic?

Theirs an obvious intention to prevent a behavior, even if it is not an outright prohibition

 

[Richardr]

But some local authorities seem to be making their mission to make it more annoying to drive to that job 16 minutes away

But that has nothing to do with 15 minute cities.

Not everything will be within 15 minutes - the idea is that some of the essentials will. For everything else, further travel or deliveries will continue as they do today.

Take as an example, we currently have on average a GP for every 1,700 people. If it is decided to build at least 800 homes in an area wouldn't it make sense to have a GP in that area rather than force people to go elsewhere?

Why are some people getting hung up on "compulsion" and saying that travel will be banned / discouraged? Many people would rather live within walking distance of at least some amenities, whilst realizing that other amenities will not be a walk away. How can that be an issue?

 

[renegademaster]

Why are some people getting hung up on "compulsion"

Because that's the way it's generally been happening, since the carrots aren't working or being done. Their isn't a way to get the 15 minute city scheme to work other than big subsidies or disadvantaging the stuff you need to travel for

 

[DarloRich]

And yet Oxford has deployed traffic filters who's purpose is clearly to render a car useless within the city, even if they do not technically prevent you driving from point A to point B. That is, de-facto, compulsion to remain near your residence.

And if it achieves nothing, which it will without massive compulsion, what is the point of the exercise?

I am not sure how you are reaching these conclusions.

That is, unless you take away everyone's ability, directly or indirectly, to travel further to more attractive alternatives.

or the products come to you by one of the many delivery options available - I can get groceries delivered by robot, uber, just eat, amazon, the super markets themselves and by post if I really want.

Each has a cost but many of them cost less than driving to the supermarket. I don't have a car at present.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Theirs an obvious intention to prevent a behavior, even if it is not an outright prohibition

Yes. That behaviour is unnecessary car journeys that can be reasonably replaced by other methods.
Nothing about trying to prevent car journeys that can't be reasonably replaced by other methods (either due to poor public transport provision, or length of journey, or needing to carry things or due to accessibility needs etc). Nobody is saying some car journeys won't continue to be necessary and fine to make.

But some local authorities seem to be making their mission to make it more annoying to drive to that job 16 minutes away

I suspect either you are being purposefully disingenuous, or you are talking the 15 minutes too literally. 16 minutes (or 20 minutes) is pretty much there too.

Because that's the way it's generally been happening, since the carrots aren't working or being done

If everyone (or even just some people) who was able to walked or cycled to the local shop instead of being wedded to their car for a 120 second drive then there'd be less need for sticks.

 

[renegademaster]

there'd be less need for sticks.

The beatings will continue until morale improves. LAs could actually look for once WHY people are making those car journeys. They must be doing it to spite cyclists.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2023 ==

Nobody is saying some car journeys won't continue to be necessary and fine to make!

The disincentives are mainly based either on paying money or taking extra time. They aren't based on how morally correct your use of a car but how much you got in the bank

 

[DarloRich]

The beatings will continue until morale improves. LAs could actually look for once WHY people are making those car journeys

because lots of us are lazy! ( that and planning/amenity provision hasn't been well thought out for many years)

 

[renegademaster]

because lots of us are lazy! ( that and planning/amenity provision hasn't been well thought out for many years)

Calling your own constituents lazy seems a surefire way to win local government elections

 

[Sorcerer]

Calling your own constituents lazy seems a surefire way to win local government elections

Lazy might have negative connotations, but we humans like convenience. Most people would vastly prefer their everyday necessities to be within easy reach, and preferably at the lowest expense possible, which is why it would be ideal to have these necessities within a quarter-hourly walking distance so we spend less time travelling there and also without the need to deal with the expenses of car ownership.

 

[AlterEgo]

This is a poison pill for nimbys to kill off a development more than it actually is a way to get a doctor's surgery built

Never heard such nonsense. We need to build things, in the right places for sure, but hopefully in a way that reduces expensive and harmful car dependency.

You need a way to enforce that, otherwise as he just said it's a useless decree

It’s not a decree. Nothing needs to be enforced.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2023 ==

And yet Oxford has deployed traffic filters who's purpose is clearly to render a car useless within the city, even if they do not technically prevent you driving from point A to point B. That is, de-facto, compulsion to remain near your residence.

No it isn’t.

 

[GusB]

Because that's the way it's generally been happening, since the carrots aren't working or being done. Their isn't a way to get the 15 minute city scheme to work other than big subsidies or disadvantaging the stuff you need to travel for

Sorry, but this is nonsense. All that needs to happen is for property developers to built a few business units when they build houses or flats; they can even be in the same block if necessary. There are loads of places all over the country that have a row of shops on the ground floor and flats or maisonettes above.

 

[jon81uk]

LAs could actually look for once WHY people are making those car journeys

That is the whole point of the 15 minute neighbourhood discussion, working out why people need the car so much.

Is it that there is no doctor or primary school within walking distance, if so that is something that government can directly address. Or maybe the school is poor quality so people drive kids further, again local government can fix that.
Is it that the road is too fast and people don't want to walk along side it, then lower speed limits or better provision of path further from the carriageway and cycle path would help.
Is it that there isn't a shopping precinct where a hairdresser could open up, then addressing it as part of the planning process would help, specifying that the developer needs to provide commercial premises.
Is it that there is shops but no one wants to open there, then changes to rent or rates and taxes might incentivise them opening.
Is it that there is no bus stop nearby, or that buses don't stop on the retail park, better planning of bus routes and stop locations would help with that.

I'm sure there are plenty of other things that could be done to entice people to drive less, but making sure there is the services and public transport nearby is a great first step.

 

[renegademaster]

Sorry, but this is nonsense. All that needs to happen is for property developers to built a few business units when they build houses or flats; they can even be in the same block if necessary. There are loads of places all over the country that have a row of shops on the ground floor and flats or maisonettes abo

The problem is hardly a shortage of vacant commercial property, any stroll down an arterial road will tell you that

 

[jon81uk]

The problem is hardly a shortage of vacant commercial property, any stroll down an arterial road will tell you that

But are those commercial properties in the right location now, or were they built when being on a main road was seen as a positive, as the traffic got worse and parking no longer allowed on those roads people don't stop in that area and its probably not a great place to walk either. Now I think being within a suburban estate so within 15 minutes walk would be better for many traders and services.