15 minute cities the future?

[AlterEgo]

But it is a general theme of the 15 minute schemes that cross neighbourhood travel tends to get *discouraged* , normally this is done by road layouts, or post hoc LTN/ cul de sacs and the planning philosophy tends to punish the big box vs somewhat encourage more expensive local neighborhood store(which it also tends to be pretty prescriptive of where they can go, not just letting them grow organically where their is demand)

That sounds like a pretty good way of reducing car dependency in cities to me.

 

[yorkie]

I never really see any of the 15 minute city schemes focus on stuff like overly restrictive commercial planning. Most of them are just chucking plant pots and ANPR cameras everywhere and expecting a Tesco to pop up. Then some councils hide behind the schemes solely a cynical moneygrab then accuse opponents of being culture warriors because some nut jobs also don't like modern urban planners.

Do you have any actual examples of such schemes?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2023 ==

... But it is a general theme of the 15 minute schemes that cross neighbourhood travel tends to get *discouraged* , normally this is done by road layouts, or post hoc LTN/ cul de sacs ...

Discouraging car travel by offering routes which are either traffic free, or light on traffic, to encourage pedestrians/cyclsts to use them, is absolutely the right thing to do.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2023 ==

That sounds like a pretty good way of reducing car dependency in cities to me.

Indeed. Those who insist on using their cars, or for whatever reason have to, actually do benefit in the longer term, as the overall reduction in traffic benefits everyone.

Of course the oppponents of such schemes want to demonstrate that early on there is no noticeable reduction in traffic, but that's daft as it takes time for peoples's habits to change.

York is an example of a city where cycling and walking to work is proportionally higher than elsewhere, because of various factors to encourage those modes while making cars less attractive, however even here there is far more that could be done to reduce car dependency.

But for sure, someone can live in York and not be adversely impacted by driving a car; I don't own a car and I suspect I am fitter and healthier than the average car owner, partly as a result of this choice. If I chose to drive, I'd not only be worsening my own health but that of everyone, by contributing to what is quite a big problem in many cities.

 

[jon81uk]

I never really see any of the 15 minute city schemes focus on stuff like overly restrictive commercial planning. Most of them are just chucking plant pots and ANPR cameras everywhere and expecting a Tesco to pop up. Then some councils hide behind the schemes solely a cynical moneygrab then accuse opponents of being culture warriors because some nut jobs also don't like modern urban planners.

Thats not a 15 minute city scheme, its a low traffic scheme. They are completly seperate things. The cameras and blocking off rat runs is designed to reduce traffic on smaller residential roads to make it more pleasent to walk. Or as Cambridge and some other cities are doing, to limit the amount of traffic entering the city centre, to reduce congestion, pollution and to make it more pleasant to walk and cycle. Don't confuse low traffic schemes with the 15 minute neighbourhood stuff.

The 15 minute neighbourhood idea is completely separate and should be about encouraging better town planning so that doctors, shops, primary school, pub, bus stops, etc are all within 15 minutes walk. Which for many towns a lot of those already are. Of course by ensuring services are within walking distance it should naturally reduce car dependance.

 

[renegademaster]

That sounds like a pretty good way of reducing car dependency in cities to me.

It depends if the facilities the 15 minute urbanists promise actually show up or not. If not, everyone is still driving your just taking a circuitous and now potentially costly route to get where you need to go.

Additionally even if you manage to get a tesco superstore and GP practice in every 15 minute city, you'll never going to be able to contain the bulk of traffic within it. (People travelling to their work place)

 

[DarloRich]

I didn't think it'd be too long before someone crawled out from the woodwork and railed against the "right-wing conspiracy theory" narrative.

but by the same token there are a large number of right wing conspiracies about this idea. We even saw a UK cabinet minster suggest that the council would decide when and where you could shop.

it is bonkers.

 

[Bantamzen]

Outside of London does that hold true?

I recently had a cursory look at the cost of apartments in Leeds city centre, as many new blocks are being thrown up. Rent-wise you might find a few under about £750pcm to rent, but beyond that then rents of close to or above 4 figure sums are pretty much the centreline. So city centre living isn't particularly cheap, especially as an MCard for bus & train for all zones in West Yorkshire costs under £200pcm. So living away from Leeds city centre where you can find a lot of rents well under can still prove to be more cost effective, even before you account for inflated city centre prices in a lot of convivence stores.

 

[renegademaster]

even before you account for inflated city centre prices in a lot of convivence stores.

This is the fatal flaw of the neighborhood store first approach. It's very expensive for people that have to resort to them. It's ok for wealthy upper middle class people who can afford to shop at the deli everyday, not so nice to working class people stuck using londis paying £2 for a loaf of bread and not being able to get any fruit or veg

 

[Cdd89]

I’d be grateful if anyone could link to genuine proposals (with a pathway for it to actually happen) for existing cities to become genuine 15 minute cities where they are not already. This aspirational discussion is all very well, but on cursory searching, I can’t find any.

As a specific example, there are plenty of locations in outer cities that are more than 15 minutes walk from a park, a key metric of the 15 minute city concept. Where are the proposals to demolish housing or commercial property to create such parks? NB: proposals to create a useless “pocket park” do not apply, that’s just wasting everyone’s time with lip service.

 

[Richardr]

everyone is still driving your just taking a circuitous and now potentially costly route to get where you need to go.

What do you mean by that phrase? Why would saying that there should be at least a certain amount of amenities within walking distance for certain new developments affect the route taken to get somewhere else?

 

[renegademaster]

Why would saying that there should be at least a certain amount of amenities within walking distance for certain new developments affect the route taken to get somewhere else?

Because zoning for these amenities and those amenities actually opening are different things.

If nobody answers the developers call to open a shop, school or a doctor practice, you either have the choice of refusing to build and contributing to the housing crisis, or the houses getting built, and everyone driving to where they need to go but through a needlessly circuitous route since your neighborhood was designed to make cross Town traffic as annoying as possible

 

[HSTEd]

What do you mean by that phrase? Why would saying that there should be at least a certain amount of amenities within walking distance for certain new developments affect the route taken to get somewhere else?

Because the only way planners have to make 15 minute cities is to make long distance journeys as hard as possible to force people to rely on the poor quality services near to them.

Planners can decree that amenities will open, but they can't actually make them do so.

15 minute cities are based upon the assumption that the population can support a high density of shops, services etc such that they can be spread around so that everyone can be within 15 minutes of them.
With escalating labour costs, I find it extremely doubtful this can really be true for a wide range of services without driving densities into the range associated with the Kowloon Walled City.

The entire concept is based around the idea of a huge supply of cheap labour that can be used to staff all these shops and other services, and it simply doesn't exist in the UK and hasn't in decades.
What will actually happen is a handful of overpriced corner shops will be the only game in town, which people will only use when "traffic filters" et al are used to restrict travel to destinations further afield.

EDIT:

To clarify, in essence the large distant supermarket model won because it is more staff efficient and can offer a far superior retail experience, especially in an environment with high labour costs.
The same is true for a bunch of other services and amenities. The only way to reverse this trend is to use "regulation" to destroy the experience of using these places such that the markedly inferior local option becomes preferable.

 

[jon81uk]

Because zoning for these amenities and those amenities actually opening are different things.

If nobody answers the developers call to open a shop, school or a doctor practice, you either have the choice of refusing to build and contributing to the housing crisis, or the houses getting built, and everyone driving to where they need to go but through a needlessly circuitous route since your neighborhood was designed to make cross Town traffic as annoying as possible

Again you are combining two things. The desire to have amenities within 15 minutes is separate to the desire to reduce traffic by making it harder to drive.
The bigger issue with many blocks of flats that already are close to a town centre is they don't have parking by design. So you might be able to drive via a simple route as there is no low traffic mitigation in place, you just can't own a car as there is nowhere to park it.

 

[AlterEgo]

This is the fatal flaw of the neighborhood store first approach. It's very expensive for people that have to resort to them. It's ok for wealthy upper middle class people who can afford to shop at the deli everyday, not so nice to working class people stuck using londis paying £2 for a loaf of bread and not being able to get any fruit or veg

Wouldn't it be nice if working class people (who are they? Just people on lower incomes?) could avoid the expense and responsibility of a car if possible? It's incredibly expensive to drive if you're on a precarious income. Using the fact that a Tesco Express is a bit more expensive for the essentials than an out of town Extra is missing the point. Avoiding the necessity of a car to do basic tasks would save many people hundreds of pounds a month.

 

[renegademaster]

Wouldn't it be nice if working class people (who are they? Just people on lower incomes?) could avoid the expense and responsibility of a car if possible? It's incredibly expensive to drive if you're on a precarious income. Using the fact that a Tesco Express is a bit more expensive for the essentials than an out of town Extra is missing the point. Avoiding the necessity of a car to do basic tasks would save many people hundreds of pounds a month.

You can have large supermarkets without forcing people to use cars, but to be able to you need to diverge from the 15 minute dogma a bit and allow development that doesn't fit into the neat 15 minute villages. It takes me about 40 minutes to get the out of town supermarket by bus, which isn't ideal but still very doable on the weekend

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2023 ==

Again you are combining two things. The desire to have amenities within 15 minutes is separate to the desire to reduce traffic by making it harder to drive.
The bigger issue with many blocks of flats that already are close to a town centre is they don't have parking by design. So you might be able to drive via a simple route as there is no low traffic mitigation in place, you just can't own a car as there is nowhere to park it.

All the actual implementations of the concept I've seen tend to involve some kind of traffic calming scheme to disincentive long journeys as part of it, or are like Milton Keynes where every neighborhood has some space set out for retail but not necessarily made good use of it.

Saying "I think amenities should be close by" isn't actually a policy if you don't actually have any concrete way of achieving it

 

[Richardr]

Because the only way planners have to make 15 minute cities is to make long distance journeys as hard as possible to force people to rely on the poor quality services near to them.

Not at all - everything you mention has nothing to do with the concept of a 15 minute city.

Obviously we don't have anything like this planned in the UK today, and like anything if it ever happens they may be successful, may be unsuccessful in their aim, but to suggest that the amenities would by necessity be poor quality and that planners would make journeys as hard as possible has noting to do with the concept.

However, what we do have are areas of the country, London being the one I know, where it would be very difficult if not impossible to live more than 15 minutes walk away from amenities including shops. It doesn't stop the right of anyone going to the large Westfield centres in the east and west, or Brent Cross on the northern side of London.

I don't know why anyone would dislike the concept - what is wrong with clustering housing around amenities - in the past we would have called it a [medium sized] town centre.

 

[renegademaster]

What is a good example of a 15 minute scheme that doesn't use the stick they normally use but uses the carrot to incentivice amenities to come. All good talking about your noble aims but what is your plan to see it though?

 

[Richardr]

What is a good example of a 15 minute scheme that doesn't use the stick they normally use but uses the carrot to incentivice amenities to come. All good talking about your noble aims but what is your plan to see it though?

We don't have any built as such in the UK today, so not a question anyone can answer one way or the other.

 

[HSTEd]

Not at all - everything you mention has nothing to do with the concept of a 15 minute city.

Obviously we don't have anything like this planned in the UK today, and like anything if it ever happens they may be successful, may be unsuccessful in their aim, but to suggest that the amenities would by necessity be poor quality and that planners would make journeys as hard as possible has noting to do with the concept.

The problem is that if people are allowed to travel further afield easily, they won't use the local amenities and they will death-spiral.

We don't have "15 minute cities today" for a reason, and it wasn't a giant conspiracy by car manufacturers to destroy traditional shopping streets!
Supermarkets won by offering a superior retail experience with better choice, better prices and far more convenience to the public.

There has been no major technological change in the past few years to reverse this trend that I am aware of, indeed with internet shopping it is becoming more acute.

THe only way to force a return to this older model with shops and other amenities dispersed to be near everyone is to tilt the economic balance the other way. The only two ways I am aware of is to attack the economics of larger retail and other developments by making them harder to access or punitively taxing them, or pumping piles of public money into subsidising the local options so they can compete. The latter is almost certainly unsustainable, so you must either do the former or be left with "local amenities" developments that are disused and empty.

I don't know why anyone would dislike the concept - what is wrong with clustering housing around amenities - in the past we would have called it a [medium sized] town centre.

Because this economic model lost, and trying to reinstate it by decree is likely to do far more harm than good.

 

[renegademaster]

We don't have any built as such in the UK today, so not a question anyone can answer one way or the other.

Not any built but a few cities are implementing measures based upon claimed 15 minute city ideals , and they include traffic calming, hence the common association with the ideal and the measures

 

[Bantamzen]

Wouldn't it be nice if working class people (who are they? Just people on lower incomes?) could avoid the expense and responsibility of a car if possible? It's incredibly expensive to drive if you're on a precarious income. Using the fact that a Tesco Express is a bit more expensive for the essentials than an out of town Extra is missing the point. Avoiding the necessity of a car to do basic tasks would save many people hundreds of pounds a month.

And what about work? Or all they all just going to do jobs down the local mill or mine...??

 

[jon81uk]

All the actual implementations of the concept I've seen tend to involve some kind of traffic calming scheme to disincentive long journeys as part of it, or are like Milton Keynes where every neighborhood has some space set out for retail but not necessarily made good use of it.

Saying "I think amenities should be close by" isn't actually a policy if you don't actually have any concrete way of achieving it

The planning process is how to acheive it. zoning things, using section 106 to make sure doctors surgeries get build as part of developments, properly funding school construction. There is a lot government could do.

There has been no major technological change in the past few years to reverse this trend that I am aware of, indeed with internet shopping it is becoming more acute

Internet has somewhat reduced the impact of the larger supermarkets, there is no need to go there to get groceries, it can be done online. Tesco started selling TVs and all sorts of other stuff, but people preferred to buy online so much of that has gone. This actually makes the smaller local shops more important as those wihtout a car get the "big shop" delivered but will need to walk to do top ups.

 

[GusB]

And what about work? Or all they all just going to do jobs down the local mill or mine...??

The idea is that people will be able to work in such areas as well. Having local amenities means having local jobs too. Obviously it's not going to be suitable for everyone, but those who do work further afield will still be able to get there by using public transport, if it's a suitable option, or by driving. Nobody is proposing to ban people from using cars or from travelling to distant places, after all.

 

[WelshBluebird]

So a few points:

1. A "15 minute city" doesn't need to be an entire city or town. It can just be one mostly self contained suburb. I live in such an area in Bristol where pretty much everything I need (two large supermarkets, loads of small supermarkets, a good choice of pubs / restaurants, a couple of GP's, dentists and pharmacies, two good primary schools and a secondary school, a train station, amongst other things) is within a 20 minute walk or 10 minute cycle. Compare that to some other (more modern) suburbs of Bristol that are essentially purely residential and require people who live there to drive for most of the things I've just mentioned (or the very least rely on the bus to get to areas like mine). I know where I'd rather live (and it is where I do live now).
2. It doesn't have to be absolutely everything within 15 minutes. Despite what the conspiracy theorists say we aren't locking people into those 15 minute areas. You are still able to travel for things (which is why having train stations included is important - even if you can't get to your end destination by foot or bike, maybe you can walk or cycle to the train station instead of needing to drive there).
3. We aren't talking about absolutely everywhere. Of course many areas aren't going be able to economically sustain everything within a 15 minute walk or cycle. And that is fine! This is largely about the areas that can support it.
4. It is about choice. By making make people less dependent on needing to drive places for the everyday essentials of living you give them the choice of walking, or cycling, or using public transport, or indeed driving. Rather than giving them no option but to drive. And for those who still have no alternative but to drive - well less people needing to drive should reduce traffic and mean your drive is a lot nicer than before!

 

[HSTEd]

The planning process is how to acheive it. zoning things, using section 106 to make sure doctors surgeries get build as part of developments, properly funding school construction. There is a lot government could do.

Building buildings is not the hard part, the hard part is getting people to pay to use them.
The reason we don't have shops scattered all over in the traditional style isn't because the buildings don't exist, its because there is no economic rationale for them to exist!
Indeed, housing estates are littered with closed amenities that are gathering vandalism damage or being converted into housing.

Internet has somewhat reduced the impact of the larger supermarkets, there is no need to go there to get groceries, it can be done online. Tesco started selling TVs and all sorts of other stuff, but people preferred to buy online so much of that has gone. This actually makes the smaller local shops more important as those wihtout a car get the "big shop" delivered but will need to walk to do top ups.

The proliferation of rapid deliveries has arguably made small shops even less attractive though.
The quantity of items that must be bought in person at short notice has shrunk even further, now I can get a delivery in a matter of hours.

Meanwhile escalating labour costs render smaller shops less and less economic, which is why they are dying all over the place.

 

[Bantamzen]

The idea is that people will be able to work in such areas as well. Having local amenities means having local jobs too. Obviously it's not going to be suitable for everyone, but those who do work further afield will still be able to get there by using public transport, if it's a suitable option, or by driving. Nobody is proposing to ban people from using cars or from travelling to distant places, after all.

I love this splendid idea that many people would be able to work within 15 minutes walk. Of course its all fluff, unicorns and rainbows. Many suburban areas could barely sustain a handful of jobs in that distance, let alone for a significant proportion of the population. I sometimes wonder if the people who dream up such ideas get out all that often.

 

[AlterEgo]

And what about work? Or all they all just going to do jobs down the local mill or mine...??

There will be more jobs for lower income people closer to their homes if that's where more shops and businesses are. It won't eradicate driving but it will reduce car dependency which is a good thing.

As @WelshBluebird says this is about choice. Many people, as you recognise, do not have a choice but to drive, which is expensive, causes a less safe environment for everyone, and loaded with personal responsibility. Nobody is saying you won't be allowed to drive 20 minutes or even an hour to go to work.

 

[Bantamzen]

There will be more jobs for lower income people closer to their homes if that's where more shops and businesses are. It won't eradicate driving but it will reduce car dependency which is a good thing.

As @WelshBluebird says this is about choice. Many people, as you recognise, do not have a choice but to drive, which is expensive, causes a less safe environment for everyone, and loaded with personal responsibility. Nobody is saying you won't be allowed to drive 20 minutes or even an hour to go to work.

I'm not saying that anybody is suggesting that people won't be allowed to go further. I'm just fascinated how and where these relocated businesses will go. There may be some relocation of shops for example, assuming of course they can find suitable premises. But what about office based businesses, or light industrial, or logistics businesses. Are they going to start to pop up within large suburban areas? Somehow I doubt it.

 

[GusB]

I love this splendid idea that many people would be able to work within 15 minutes walk. Of course its all fluff, unicorns and rainbows. Many suburban areas could barely sustain a handful of jobs in that distance, let alone for a significant proportion of the population. I sometimes wonder if the people who dream up such ideas get out all that often.

Read my post again. I said that it wasn't going to be suitable for everyone.

Did you read post 53? An example of an area where it's already happening. I've lived in similar areas too, away from the city centre but centred on a main thoroughfare. One of those areas was more or less self-contained and there was no need to travel into the city centre if I didn't want to. Admittedly, it has been some years since I lived there, but via the magic of Google streetview I can still see what the area looks like now. Certainly there have been a few changes - the banks have gone, for example - but it still looks like a thriving small local high street.

So it's not fluff, unicorns and rainbows.

 

[Bantamzen]

Read my post again. I said that it wasn't going to be suitable for everyone.

Did you read post 53? An example of an area where it's already happening. I've lived in similar areas too, away from the city centre but centred on a main thoroughfare. One of those areas was more or less self-contained and there was no need to travel into the city centre if I didn't want to. Admittedly, it has been some years since I lived there, but via the magic of Google streetview I can still see what the area looks like now. Certainly there have been a few changes - the banks have gone, for example - but it still looks like a thriving small local high street.

So it's not fluff, unicorns and rainbows.

Yeah it is. Just because it works in a few pockets doesn't mean it will in most. A 15 minute walk to a job is a pipe dream for most. Frankly there are plenty of suburbs you can't even cross in that time.

Once again reality crashes in front of ideas dreamt up by people with sod all idea how the gaff actually works.

 

[DC1989]

It's just simply another idea of reviving the high street with a new name. Quite how it's taken the dark turn it has I don't know

Pretty much everything I need is within a 15 minute walk (supermarkets, pubs, hospital, dentists, gyms, shops, tube station, bus stops, parks, cinemas, schools). For many people living in cities in cities it will be the same.

Nobody is going to tell anybody you can't take that job as it's a 16 minute walk away from your home. Anyone who thinks this really needs to come back to reality