I've actually changed my position somewhat since the last time I got involved in one of these discussions.
Firstly, I'd probably want to burn ~£25-30bn to get fleet homogenisation, level boarding and eliminate pure diesel operations. Total fleet replacement of all non level boarding rolling stock, about 14500 vehicles in total.
To do that in ten years would mean contracting with manufacturers abroad (probably including CRRC et al), nevertheless it should be possible to homogenise the fleet down to four or five classes of train.
A total fleet replacement would also provide the opportunity to impose a single multiple working standard to be used by everything - probably based on the ECP braking system developed in the US, which supports AAR messages. Probably use tightlock type couplings to enable coupling homogenisation. As an added bonus that would save the state a couple billion pounds a year in leasing related charges since the entire fleet would be owned outright.
Secondly, I'd want to fit ECP braking to all freight rolling stock as well as order an electrodiesel Class 66 replacement, leveraging advanced (and expensive) technologies to get the necessary performance in the given weight package. Then buy enough to essentially dispense with the bulk of the freight operating fleet, again using coupling and standards homogenisation to our advantage. Not sure how much but lets call it £1-2bn on that, noone seems to be able to give a good estimate on the size of the freight rolling stock fleet. Probably would have to replace a lot of the old buffers stock to get AAR compatible couplings.
This would leave us with a fleet where we've cut the training burden on traction dramatically, created an environment where any combination of rail vehicles on the system can operate as a block train, potentially using push pull and where leasing charges and complex trackside systems like hotbox detectors can be dispensed with. Additionally all trains would have onboard integrity protection, allowing most trackside train detection to go.
Next, something like £40-50bn on a south coast shinkansen system as I've previously talked about (London-Brighton->Bournemouth), allowing it to displace a lot of very expensive, very congested railway on the southern system.
That leaves us with something like £20 ish billion, which would probably be used to accelerate ETCS (Level 2 Hybrid!) and ATO deployment and convert a few thousand kilometres of track to Porr system slab track.
Long term the objective would be to make GoA 3 the standard, with remaining train crew likely operating buffet facilities on many trains.
Keeping the unions on board would be critical as in the long run this effort is likely to lead to significant headcount reductions (albeit with a short term increase). Hopefully an arrangement based on attrition and voluntary redundancy could be arranged. Probably would need a few billion pounds to help fund such arrangements.
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