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Meanwhile in no-vaccine passport and mask mandate England, cases have now been declining for 18 days....The longest period of decline since February. It seems that largely whatever we do in terms of ongoing restrictions is mostly just fiddling around the edges. Even if you do believe the...

I can't quite tell if this is happiness on the current situation, or complaining we don't have restrictions. If the former: Great. If the latter: We have the majority of the population vaccinated (and exceptionally high take up in more at risk groups). It is no surprise then, unless you are an...

Well thankfully 'cases' have been falling both in Wales and UK for the last 10+ days. Not that you would know that if you only listened to the MSM...

I despise both measures and refuse to answer the poll. Masks are on obvious visual symbol - I can mostly avoid wearing one myself, but still end up seeing faceless others. This probably impacts me more personally in day to day life. Vaccine passports would probably have less direct impact on me...

I'd be interested to see if they stick with the Singapore thing. Cases there have been 'high' recently (comparable to the UK on a per capita basis). Although it is good that the borders are slowly re-opening I feel sorry for all those people who missed a last chance to see a dying loved one...

The ONS survey this is based on has a week lag, so it is up to 22nd October. So yes, new figures, but not current ones.

https://twitter.com/LutherBurgsvik/status/1452525331131375620/photo/1 The last few days have made me super depressed about the calls for more restrictions. Stuff like this seems to make it inevitable.

I have 2 members of my family who shielded (age 55-60). They have muscle issues which are treated with a transfusion. For several months the transfusions stopped and for a longer period they were essentially confined to their houses in the name of 'protecting the NHS'. Their physical ability to...

Worth noting that Plan B for England (covid vax papers, some face masks, heightened communication) is basically what Wales has at the moment. Guess who has the highest case rate at present... Reading the plan B footnotes here it links to various ONS surveys...

Prediction - there is currently a spike in 'cases' in the young, particularly those age 19 and under. This is driving the 'scary' case numbers. If we can resist any restrictions for a few more weeks, we will see this age-segmented mini-wave subside and cases numbers will start to fall again...

Yes. And the higher curve in the previous graph isn't even the highest they presented! The actual worst case they presented has hospitalisations going off the chart! I have no sympathy for modellers claiming that the media or public is treating them poorly or not seriously. They have...

A reminder that the modelling experts have got it hopelessly wrong again. Grey lines are what was published at the start of September and SAGE described as the most likely scenarios for hospitalisations (with 95% confidence intervals shaded). The outcome in red is approx. 50% below even the...

Reasons given include that they did not foresee that kids don't go to school during August and that it is warm during summer! It honestly feels like they are just making this stuff up, what they model has no bearing on reality.

Remember this Yougov survey from back in February? https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2021/02/09/global-survey-where-should-facemasks-be-mandatory 83% of people in the UK think masks should be compulsory on public transport Or this one from June...

As another sign of how wrong the 'science' of modelling gets it. Here is a forecast from two weeks ago of where SPI-M thought we would be...the red dot is where we actually are. Remember this sort of stuff is informing government policy. If restrictions had been in place you could damn well bet...

Apart from Australia it seems the US is also trying to go full on crazy with: Biden recently announcing attempts at a federal level to introduce mandatory vaccination for many people. The Governer of New York mandating that all children age 2+ have to wear masks when under child care. Pfizer in...

First time into the office since last September and my first time commuting on a train to work since 17th March 2020 (when I had to carry my monitor screens home with me). Most people getting on with it. Masks definitely in the minority, perhaps 1/3rd of people wearing one. I was disappointed...

This is one of the main reasons why I have gone from being vaguely supportive (or at least understanding) of the first lockdown to having a view that any such measures should never have been allowed to happen; because once it started, the flood of authoritarian measures is hard to stop. The...

That makes the assumption that the 'controls' imposed on us such as masks, perspex, 2m stickers on floors, and limiting meet ups to 6 people had any measurabe impact on spread. This can only be doubted after seeing what happenend after 'unlocking' in various countries/states. Anyway, there is...

There has been much huffing and puffing about a spike in cases caused by the recent Boardmasters festival in Cornwall. A reminder that Boardmasters did actually have a covid passport type policy for all attendees over 11 years old. Either vaccinated, 24 hr LFT or a positive PCR test in the last...