Reform UK discussion

styles · Friday at 13:05

brad465 said:
He must think he could somehow get rich being trying to get into this operation.

She*

But yeah.

It's being applauded in the local Facebook group :frown:

RailUK Forums

Tetchytyke · Friday at 13:06

D6130 said:
Well! Well! Well! It transpires that Orr is a lecturer in Ethics at Cambridge University!
Can't see him lasting long in that job either!

I can't wait to see The Spectator and The Telegraph jump on his back and demand that Cambridge sack him, before continuing to hound him and his family even after he resigns. That's what we do with Cambridge academics who lie, right?

Any second now...

jon0844 said:
He's tripling down but must know he's in big trouble.

He knows fine well that people who support Reform won't change their minds over this. It's a personality cult (no, not a typo) and he's the main character. He just needs to brazen it out.

nlogax · Friday at 13:40

Tetchytyke said:
He knows fine well that people who support Reform won't change their minds over this. It's a personality cult (no, not a typo) and he's the main character. He just needs to brazen it out.

Exactly that. If anyone believes Farage is toast after this then they're wrong. Illegal acts won't result in him losing support from his merry band of nutters.

Broucek · Friday at 13:43

nlogax said:
Exactly that. If anyone believes Farage is toast after this then they're wrong. Illegal acts won't result in him losing support from his merry band of nutters.

Yeah, but his merry band is not large enough to win big in an election. It may be big enough to damage the Tories, however....

styles · Friday at 13:46

Broucek said:
Yeah, but his merry band is not large enough to win big in an election. It may be big enough to damage the Tories, however....

Except double the number of seats of any other party in last year's local elections?

Complacency is a dangerous game.

jon0844 · Friday at 13:46

Tetchytyke said:
He knows fine well that people who support Reform won't change their minds over this. It's a personality cult (no, not a typo) and he's the main character. He just needs to brazen it out.

At this point, it won't be what his supporters think that matters to Farage. It will be the impact of donations going forward. He must know he's going to watched far more closely now.

If he thinks he can weather the storm and still get donations, he'll carry on.

What's likely to happen now is the Tories capitalise on the disaster and try and steer people back to their party.

BAFRA77 · Friday at 13:48

I'm sure I've read something like this in a history book a few years ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/sep/04/reform-uk-donations-nigel-farage-james-orr-dan-jukes-channel-4-investigation-conference-jordan-bardella-latest-news-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with:block-6a9a97838f08fe90df702375#block-6a9a97838f08fe90df702375

During his speech to the Reform UK 2026 national conference, Nigel Farage is expected to commit to declaring a national emergency on day one of a Reform UK government, highlighting the dire state the country was left in by successive Labour and Conservative governments.

A Reform UK spokesman said: “Within days of winning the general election, we will introduce dozens of bills and force Parliament to sit all through summer for seven days a week to pass them. Britain is in serious trouble. We don’t have time to wait around to fix it”.

He will say that “if the Lords, judiciary or civil service get in our way they will discover just how determined we are” and will commit to doing “anything and everything to make the first 100 days work”.

Sounds a bit like Martial Law...

In an interview with Richard Tice, the Reform UK deputy leader, on the Today programme this morning, Nick Robinson tried to get to the bottom of this. But he did not get very far.

When Robinson asked what Reform UK would do to judges if they got in the way, Tice just said the party would “pass laws to get stuff done”.

eotw · Friday at 13:56

You may be interested in Zia Yusuf comments on potential Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

"The front runner being foisted on the people of Holborn by Labour to replace the former Prime Minister Keir Starmer in our Parliament was born in Somalia. Do you understand what's happening?"

Zia Yusuf condemned for racist post over attack on Labour council leader

Reform's Zia Yusuf has been accused of racism after launching a disgraceful attack on a Labour council leader who was born in Somalia. Sagal Abdi-Wali is among the names being suggested as a potential Labour candidate

leftfootforward.org

styles · Friday at 13:59

eotw said:
You may be interested in Zia Yusuf comments on potential Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

"The front runner being foisted on the people of Holborn by Labour to replace the former Prime Minister Keir Starmer in our Parliament was born in Somalia. Do you understand what's happening?"

Zia Yusuf condemned for racist post over attack on Labour council leader

Reform's Zia Yusuf has been accused of racism after launching a disgraceful attack on a Labour council leader who was born in Somalia. Sagal Abdi-Wali is among the names being suggested as a potential Labour candidate

leftfootforward.org

You know you're bad when even Dan Hodges is calling you out on your racism.

contrex · Friday at 15:01

BAFRA77 said:
I'm sure I've read something like this in a history book a few years ago:

Did it involve a fire in the Reichstag? Old Kingy hasn't got the moustaches that Hindenburg had but still...

brad465 · Friday at 15:18

If this does bring down Reform UK, in theory we could discuss this in the "Companies you expect to disappear soon" thread, as this is a limited company, not a typical political party

nr758123 · Friday at 15:34

D6130 said:
It transpires that Orr is a lecturer in Ethics at Cambridge University!

Maybe he thinks that Ethics is next to Thuffolk.

Thirteen · Friday at 15:39

Reform really is cloud cuckoo land if they think they'd be able to block anything, a VONC would be very swift.

GusB · Friday at 15:44

Thirteen said:
Reform really is cloud cuckoo land if they think they'd be able to block anything, a VONC would be very swift.

The idea of getting them to sit in parliament for seven days a week is laughable when they barely turn up as it is.

Tetchytyke · Friday at 15:51

eotw said:
You may be interested in Zia Yusuf comments on potential Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

"The front runner being foisted on the people of Holborn by Labour to replace the former Prime Minister Keir Starmer in our Parliament was born in Somalia. Do you understand what's happening?"

It's certainly an interesting comment from a man called Muhammad and who is the son of Sri Lankan Muslim migrants. Stones and glass houses spring to mind.

Goes to show that Yusuf is always game for chucking a dead cat on the table whenever the media start asking awkward questions about Farage's finances.

Same with Tice's comments this morning.

styles said:
Except double the number of seats of any other party in last year's local elections?

Complacency is a dangerous game.

Given the small size of most local electoral wards and the low turnout in most local elections, it is hard to draw too many conclusions from the local election results. But I would agree that complacency is very dangerous.

edwin_m · Friday at 16:01

Time for another byelection in Clacton?

styles · Friday at 16:10

Tetchytyke said:
Given the small size of most local electoral wards and the low turnout in most local elections, it is hard to draw too many conclusions from the local election results. But I would agree that complacency is very dangerous.

Sure, but it shows they win elections. They got the most seats in this year's local elections and also won both new mayor posts. They've managed to secure 8 MPs and I really wouldn't put it past them winning more next time round.

People write Reform off as a fringe party far too easily in my view. They're a serious threat to other parties and if we write them off as not being a threat, we'll all end up suffering.

Hopefully this Channel 4 documentary will turn a few supporters elsewhere but I'm not that hopeful.

SuspectUsual · Friday at 16:37

styles said:
They've managed to secure 8 MPs

"Secure" is a bit disingenuous - they've won 5 seats

Tetchytyke · Friday at 17:05

styles said:
They've managed to secure 8 MPs and I really wouldn't put it past them winning more next time round.

SuspectUsual said:
"Secure" is a bit disingenuous - they've won 5 seats

They've won 6 seats overall- 5 at the general election, and one at a by-election. They've since lost 2- Rupert Lowe because of a clash of egos, and James McMurdock because of financial shenanigans and a spot of domestic violence- so only half of their current MPs have actually won a seat standing as Reform.

At the by-election, Sarah Pochin won by 6 votes but over 2,000 people had voted Green. In Basildon/Thurrock in 2024, James McMurdock won by 98 votes with 1,700 people voting Green. A warning there about what happens when the vote gets split, perhaps.

styles · Friday at 17:09

Tetchytyke said:
They've won 6 seats overall- 5 at the general election, and one at a by-election. They've since lost 2- Rupert Lowe because of a clash of egos, and James McMurdock because of financial shenanigans and a spot of domestic violence- so only half of their current MPs have actually won a seat standing as Reform.

At the by-election, Sarah Pochin won by 6 votes but over 2,000 people had voted Green. In Basildon/Thurrock in 2024, James McMurdock won by 98 votes with 1,700 people voting Green. A warning there about what happens when the vote gets split, perhaps.

Sure, they secured a couple of them from people switching parties, but most were won under a Reform UK banner.

There's more Reform UK MPs than Sinn Fein, the DUP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru, the SDP, and as many as the SNP.

I suspect Restore will split some of their vote thankfully, but otherwise they're not exactly an irrelevance. It would be dangerous to assume they would be.

Tetchytyke · Friday at 17:15

styles said:
Sure, they secured a couple of them from people switching parties, but most were won under a Reform UK banner.

As of today it is exactly 50/50.

There are currently more Green MPs who were elected as Greens (5) than Reform MPs who were elected as Reform (4).

That's certainly not to dismiss them as an irrelevance. They seem to get an outsized amount of media attention for the size of the party they are, and that will remain a big issue. If people think they're a plausible party of government they're more likely to vote for them under FPTP. I think they're dangerous.

styles · Friday at 17:17

Tetchytyke said:
As of today it is exactly 50/50.

There are currently more Green MPs who were elected as Greens (5) than Reform MPs who were elected as Reform (4).

That's certainly not to dismiss them as an irrelevance. They seem to get an outsized amount of media attention for the size of the party they are, and that will remain a big issue. If people think they're a plausible party of government they're more likely to vote for them under FPTP. I think they're dangerous.

I think the media attention they attract is as much based on vote share as number of seats. They got a greater vote share than the Lib Dems in the last general election. The only reason they don't have more seats is because of FPTP.

edwin_m · Friday at 20:03

styles said:
I think the media attention they attract is as much based on vote share as number of seats. They got a greater vote share than the Lib Dems in the last general election. The only reason they don't have more seats is because of FPTP.

FPTP introduces tipping points, so when a party's support gets to a certain level their seat share starts dramatically outnumbering their vote share. The most obvious example is Labour winning a huge majority in 2024 on 34% of the vote share, which is only six points above Reform's high water mark at the 2025 locals. For some unfathomable reason Farage has gone strangely quiet about his former support for Proportional Representation.

The other feature of FPTP is tactical voting, which was deployed in 2024 against the Tories and I can see it being deployed in 2029 against Reform. Although Reform have a base who may just vote for them regardless, there are many people who will vote for almost any other party just to keep them out. See also how France often unites against the National Rally when they secure a top two result in the first round and go to a runoff.

gabrielhj07 · Friday at 22:08

edwin_m said:
For some unfathomable reason Farage has gone strangely quiet about his former support for Proportional Representation.

As with all parties, support for PR is enjoyed exclusively in opposition. Nobody campaigns against the system that (looks likely to) put them in power.

brad465 · Friday at 22:24

gabrielhj07 said:
As with all parties, support for PR is enjoyed exclusively in opposition. Nobody campaigns against the system that (looks likely to) put them in power.

This is why the best way to get PR in is for a hung parliament scenario to occur, where a junior partner (or partners) demands the implementation of PR as a condition for support.

35B · 2026-09-05T07:18:50+0100

brad465 said:
This is why the best way to get PR in is for a hung parliament scenario to occur, where a junior partner (or partners) demands the implementation of PR as a condition for support.

Without comment on form, note what happened after 2010

Welly · 2026-09-05T07:54:46+0100

35B said:
Without comment on form, note what happened after 2010

If we did agree to have PR in that referendum, I think we would have a LOT more UKIP/Brexit/Reform MPs in parliament today.

brad465 · 2026-09-05T08:48:40+0100

35B said:
Without comment on form, note what happened after 2010

Welly said:
If we did agree to have PR in that referendum, I think we would have a LOT more UKIP/Brexit/Reform MPs in parliament today.

We already have/had them, but instead they decided to hijack the Tories (and on the other extreme, Momentum hijacking Labour). The Brexit referendum happened mostly because Cameron was afraid of UKIP, despite the latter only getting 2 by-election seats and only holding one in 2015. Under PR they would form separate parties and then they would have to collaborate to have a chance of holding power.

edwin_m · 2026-09-05T08:54:50+0100

Welly said:
If we did agree to have PR in that referendum, I think we would have a LOT more UKIP/Brexit/Reform MPs in parliament today.

Much as I disagree with it, that set of beliefs has a right to be fairly represented in proportion to the number of voters who support them. Unless public opinion shifts dramatically they would have no chance of forming a government under PR, but under FPTP they could attain power on a small vote share as Labour did in 2024. Reform is much more divisive than Labour, so a large part of the electorate (possibly a majority) might then be actively opposed to the government. If Reform's support climbs back then we only have tactical voting to prevent that outcome.

35B · 2026-09-05T09:46:33+0100

brad465 said:
We already have/had them, but instead they decided to hijack the Tories (and on the other extreme, Momentum hijacking Labour). The Brexit referendum happened mostly because Cameron was afraid of UKIP, despite the latter only getting 2 by-election seats and only holding one in 2015. Under PR they would form separate parties and then they would have to collaborate to have a chance of holding power.

Which would have put Cameron in a weaker position. We forget how much the Conservative Party leaned Brexit after 2010 - it wasn’t just UKIP

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