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Wind Power and UK Energy Use

The Ham

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This could be investing to see what comes from it:

New challenge launched to store clean energy for longer and protect households from price spikes - GOV.UK https://share.google/efIWMZLsc4VDH58uM

The Ultra-Long Duration Energy Storage Challenge will offer £28 million to create tech which can store clean energy for over 100 hours
Following another record-breaking heatwave, this launch boosts government’s clean energy ambitions to combat climate change
The public will be better protected from potential hikes on their energy bills, as a new initiative looks to cut the UK’s reliance on more expensive sources of power.

Launched today (Thursday 20th August), the Ultra-Long Duration Energy Storage (Ultra-LDES) Challenge will offer grants which support the development of new tech focused on energy storage, including advanced batteries and underground hydrogen storage.

Backed by £28 million from government through UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), UK innovators can now bid for funding to develop projects capable of supplying clean electricity for 100 hours or more – enough to power our homes and businesses for at least four days.

Currently, wind and solar are the cheapest ways to generate electricity in the UK. A lack of wind or sunlight, however, means they aren’t always available, with the grid then relying on a range of options to deliver the power we need, including gas-fired generation.

Reducing our reliance on natural gas will also bolster our energy security as a nation. While the gas system will still play an important role for decades to come, improved energy storage will be a vital part of the transition to clean, homegrown energy, which will shield us from the impacts of international supply chain issues. Laying the foundations for the move to clean energy is also a vital part of addressing the climate crisis, which is already being felt across the UK and around the world.

This Challenge will see some of the UK’s brightest minds coming forward to develop the next generation of energy storage tech, meaning we will be able to store clean energy when not needed by the grid, and release it when it is. This will reduce reliance on economically volatile energy sources like gas, helping to protect consumers from price spikes and support lower energy bills in the long-term.

The Challenge will have two main areas of focus. The first will be on the development of new battery technologies capable of providing energy for over 100 hours. These electrochemical technologies are yet to be commercialised at scale, giving the UK an opportunity to secure an early foothold in the market which will deliver new opportunities for businesses and unlock new jobs.

The second will support the development and testing of systems which store hydrogen underground and release it when needed. It holds the potential to reduce total energy system costs by between £14 billion and £50 billion between 2035 and 2050.
 
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RailUK Forums

Nicholas Lewis

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Gas prices have been elevated the last two months, presumably because the Strait is still not open and the Northern Hemisphere is buying supplies for the winter now. As our prices are still pegged to gas most of the time, this is why they have been more expensive of late. This is also not normally a windy time of the year; solar of course has been doing really well, but until battery storage ramps up further, this only has a material price impact in the middle of the day.
EU members have held back all summer buying gas at volumes necessary to meet EU target due to elevated prices. The UK has also now been caught up in this as its pulled up our prices through the interconnection we have with Belgium and Holland. Nett impact as you say is to drive up prices which are nigh on double what they were pre Hormuz debacle and short of a resolution there they will remain elevated through the winter now.

More positively we have bow wave of wind coming over the horizon with Dogger Bank A (c18mths late) now close to remediating its turbine blade issues and its sister Dogger Bank B nearly 50% complete. The pair together worth 2.4GW as long as the wind is blowing. Importantly they are connected below the Scottish grid constraint so shouldn't suffer from turndown instructions. Inch Cape will start commissioning in 2027 along with East Anglia Two. Some big batteries have come on line this year as so we have over 10GWh of capacity now.
 

Bald Rick

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This could be investing to see what comes from it:

New challenge launched to store clean energy for longer and protect households from price spikes - GOV.UK https://share.google/efIWMZLsc4VDH58uM

curious timing, given that the OFGEM consultation on the selected successful LDES (Long Duration Energy Storage) projects to get contracts for difference closed last week. They will be confirmed ‘in the Autumn’ (Informed Sources Third Law doesn’t apply to OFGEM), but expected to include three large Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) projects in Scotland that will collectively quadruple PSH capacity to well over 100GWh. Also on the list is a 0.5GWh Vanadium Flow battery proposal in N Wales, a 1.5GWh Compressed air project in Teeside, and 47GWh of Lithium battery projects spread over 11 sites.

That combined with battery proposals already in construction or ready to go means the energy storage market is looking quite saturated.
 

davews

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Still a long way to go. That 100GWh storage facility will only power the UK for 2-3 hours. Multiply that by at least 32 to power the UK for '4 days'. Where is all this spare power coming from to charge the batteries? Batteries may be improving but not at that pace. As for gas storage,are they serious? Call me a sceptic if you like but these government ministers don't have a clue.
 

Snow1964

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Where is all this spare power coming from to charge the batteries?
Many wind and solar farms, eg East Anglia Three (off Suffolk coast) is 1.4GW, due to be in service by end of 2026

In few years, new nuclear too. Hinckley Point C nuclear station has 2 reactors, each 1.6GW, first one expected into service June 2030, second into service June 2031

As a (very) rough guide, 1.1GW is enough for 1m homes
 

Bald Rick

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ny wind and solar farms, eg East Anglia Three (off Suffolk coast) is 1.4GW, due to be in service by end of 2026

Yep, there’s around 10GW of new wind under construction and coming on line in the next 3-4 years, and that excludes Dogger Bank A & B as they have been quietly commissioning recently (current output is 867MW).

There’s a further 15GW consented, most of which will be on line by 2033

Solar - the pipeline is enormous and not all of it will be built. But we will see capacity increase by 2-3GWp per year for the next 5-8 years at least, and that doesn’t include plug-in solar.

Add that all up and it’s about another 50GW peak capacity, which translates to around 13GW output when averaged over the year. Put another way, that’s enough juice to charge an extra 60 million EVs doing average mileage.


Put all that together and by around 2033, ie 6/7 years from now, I guess that we will have:

c60GW wind power
c50GW solar PV power
c50GW / 250GWh energy storage (40% PSH, 60% battery), plus more battery storage ’behind the meter’
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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curious timing, given that the OFGEM consultation on the selected successful LDES (Long Duration Energy Storage) projects to get contracts for difference closed last week. They will be confirmed ‘in the Autumn’ (Informed Sources Third Law doesn’t apply to OFGEM), but expected to include three large Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) projects in Scotland that will collectively quadruple PSH capacity to well over 100GWh. Also on the list is a 0.5GWh Vanadium Flow battery proposal in N Wales, a 1.5GWh Compressed air project in Teeside, and 47GWh of Lithium battery projects spread over 11 sites.

That combined with battery proposals already in construction or ready to go means the energy storage market is looking quite saturated.
DESNZ have already stated that there is too many batteries in the connection queue this is despite the process they ran to squeeze out "no hoper" projects.

See https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...esnz-and-ofgem-on-connections-reform-delivery which was tabled in April. At the time they said this in respect of batteries

The queue formation outcomes also highlight emerging risks for certain technologies, in particular, a high volume of battery storage projects advancing to Gate 2 relative to the capacity ranges set out in the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan. The government and Ofgem strongly support the deployment of electricity storage, which plays a crucial role in allowing the clean, low-cost energy generated by renewables to be used more efficiently over time, thereby reducing the reliance of the power system on unabated gas. We remain committed, as set out in the 2025 Clean Flexibility Roadmap, to maintaining a market environment that supports the deployment of 23-27 GW of grid-scale batteries by 2030, and welcome the sector’s work to bring forward so many mature projects. Although the reform process removed many non‑viable battery projects and significantly reduced the queue, there is still 14.8 GW above the top of the Action Plan battery capacity range for 2030 and 61.7 GW above the projected battery system need in 2035.

This doesn't stop behind the meter deployment of batteries and im disappointed that in new solar now they aren't mandating at least the ability to store 2hrs preferably 4hrs as that is also saturating the market and driving the wholesale market negative. The battery owners then get paid to charge up and sell it back at a huge margin in the evening or it gets exported over the interconnectors. In either occasion the solar farm owners aren't bothered as they need to generate to receive their subsidies the only problem is the subsidies are added to our bills.

So there is still whole lot to sort out in the way the electricity market works and DESNZ meddle as much as DfT do in our industry.
 

andrewgs

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There's also the HVDC cables between Scotland and England to bypass grid constraints, the first targetted for 2029
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Green_Links

Many of the batteries being built atm are in Scotland. I presume that's to store the curtailed wind energy and discharge it when there's transmission capability. Though I've no idea how electricity pricing would incentivise this.
 

Bald Rick

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Many of the batteries being built atm are in Scotland.

Many are, but they are springing up all over the place. Almost every new large solar proposal comes with at least 2hours’ worth now, so that the solar can be sold into the evening peak.


I presume that's to store the curtailed wind energy and discharge it when there's transmission capability.

For Scotland yes. For elsewhere, it’s about delaying the use to ehen demand is greater.


Though I've no idea how electricity pricing would incentivise this.

Some plants are relying on arbitrage, ie generating (solar) / charging through the day when the marginal price is low or even negative, then selling into the evening peak when the marginal price is high. But that comes with risk, not least that everyone does it and the price evens out in a few years. Some battery plants are contracted for grid balancing, and some are being used through power purchase agreements.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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Some plants are relying on arbritage, ie generating (solar) / charging through the day when the marginal price is low or even negative, then selling into the evening peak when the marginal price is high. But that comes with risk, not least that everyone does it and the price evens out in a few years. Some battery plants are contracted for grid balancing, and some are being used through power purchase agreements.
and consumers are subsidising this as the solar generators connected at Transmission and Distribution level are largely all supported by one of the subsidy schemes ie FiT (Feed in tariff), ROC (Renewable Obligation Certificates) and CfD (contract for difference). To get their subsidies they need to generate power in the first place so they have to find a buyer or in this case a taker. They then receive a subsidy payment for the MWhrs generated and that cost gets transferred back on to consumers bill both domestic and business. So as long as the negative price is less than the subsidy payment they will be in profit.

The government have acknowledged this is making electricity expensive and have a scheme (British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme) coming in next year for the largest 10,000 UK businesses who wont have to pay the subsidy element in their bills as it will be covered by the taxman.

What we really need is an overhaul of the way the market works now and the Torys started on this way back in April 2022 known as REMA (Review of Electricity Market Arrangements). The first report proposed locational pricing but Ed Miliband didnt support it and said find another solution so we are waiting again for the latest consultation to conclude. Of course if battery owners lose this arbitrage opportunity they might not be so keen to keep building the units.
 

Krokodil

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That will be why Octopus have a "Power down" session this evening then...

i.e. get a token reward!
Another one this evening, we've had quite a few now. The incentive has changed to an hour of free electricity on the weekend, if you've powered down twice in a week.

I wish that the wind would pick up, electricity isn't cheap at the moment!
 

brad465

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Another one this evening, we've had quite a few now. The incentive has changed to an hour of free electricity on the weekend, if you've powered down twice in a week.

I wish that the wind would pick up, electricity isn't cheap at the moment!
This isn't normally a windy time of year; fortunately this isn't a major problem as demand is lower and solar supply is higher. Wind is most plentiful and important in autumn and winter, so days with less wind here are far more problematic.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Another one this evening, we've had quite a few now. The ive has changed to an hour of free electricity on the weekend, if you've powered down twice in a week.

I wish that the wind would pick up, electricity isn't cheahs half has price of gas is
Wind is 9GW currently not bad for August and could have been higher but a number of windfarms are offline. However, as solar has fallen away the CCGTs are picking up much of the load and the system price this half hour is £167/MWh due to the ever increasing price of gas so doesnt bode well for cheaper leccy anytime soon.
 

Bald Rick

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Wind is 9GW currently not bad for August and could have been higher but a number of windfarms are offline. However, as solar has fallen away the CCGTs are picking up much of the load and the system price this half hour is £167/MWh due to the ever increasing price of gas so doesnt bode well for cheaper leccy anytime soon.

We’re also - unusually for the time of day - pumping 1MW to each of Holland and Denmark (as well as Ireland) so someone is making somemoney!
 

hwl

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We’re also - unusually for the time of day - pumping 1MW to each of Holland and Denmark (as well as Ireland) so someone is making somemoney!
French nuclear output is down because of cooling issues so the norms are out the window.
 

MicroLithium

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Great to see a much healthier balance today! Gas generation below 5% currently.
Interesting that there have been a number of periods over the past couple of days with very low carbon intensity (below the 50g/kWh target for 2030) coupled with high prices. High demand, or high prices in Europe?
 

hwl

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Interesting that there have been a number of periods over the past couple of days with very low carbon intensity (below the 50g/kWh target for 2030) coupled with high prices. High demand, or high prices in Europe?
Gas prices are high everywhere in western Europe (outside Norway) hence lots of incentive to go for anything but gas if possible.
Renewable usage in the GB is being curtailed currently due to insufficient grid capability.
The high prices in GB last week were despite having an additional AGR back in service after maintenance (back on line about 10 days ago) and Drax bringing lost of capacity on line hence high prices despite all domestic tools being deployed.

Plenty of high gas pricing impact to come for another 2-3 years before the grid upgrades, wind, solar and battery installations cumulatively reduce the gas price influence unfortunately.
 
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Bald Rick

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Plenty of high gas pricing impact to come for another 2-3 years before the grid upgrades, wind, solar and battery installations cumulatively reduce the gas price influence unfortunately.

Yep. The good news is that it will get progressively better as those upgrades and batteries come on line. The other good news - if you own batteries - is that you will be making hay for the next 3 years with the price swings.

Edit: a massive battery project was given planning consent yesterday in Scotland, Rigifa BESS. 200MW, but with 18hours capacity, ie 3.6GWh. In storage terms, thats more than half the size of the Cruachan pumped storage station, or 40% of Dinorwic. It’s likely to get financial approval in the next couple of months.
 
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