SWR class 458/4 - possible withdrawal speculation

JonathanH · 1 Aug 2026

Southern Dvr said:
Southern has had no uplift in service since Covid and so really it shouldn’t be about SE at all.

There have been uplifts on some routes, including the successful recasting of the West Coastway and East Coastway timetables, and some extra trains on certain Metro routes.

bramling said:
Guess the question is to what extent SN are managing without the 313/455 fleets. A massive amount of capacity to lose for sure, though equally there don’t seem to be massive reports of overcrowding.

Although there are some reports of Metro overcrowding in places, it seems like Southern have done well to redistribute the rolling stock to where it is needed, and have a more efficient operation as a result.

Some reports of repeatedly overcrowded services, with passengers unable to board, instead of just saying that a particular service hasn't been restored, would be helpful in this regard

Given the very insightful post by 'millemille' yesterday https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...s-in-the-next-five-years.305300/#post-7883442 about the position of procurement for Networker replacement, it certainly seems that minimising the fleet requirement for that project is a priority over providing an increase in rolling stock for Southern.

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brad465 · 1 Aug 2026

bramling said:
Yeah agreed. It feels like the priority has been an abandon SE Networkers as part of the general post-Covid malaise in rolling stock, in the same way as GTR got rid of the 313/455/365 fleets.

Guess the question is to what extent SN are managing without the 313/455 fleets. A massive amount of capacity to lose for sure, though equally there don’t seem to be massive reports of overcrowding.

Unfortunately the whole 379 implementation hasn’t gone well for the end-user on GN. Interesting to speculate as to how things might have gone had Covid not happened. Suspect the 379s would still have ended up on GN, possibly 365 replacement, 387 fleet split as now as partial 313 replacement, 458 replacing 455s, though numbers don’t really add up.

The 379 cascade to Great Northern opened a Pandora's Box in fleet cascades that should not have been opened. It would have been fine if it had just been 379s to GN and 387s strengthen other Southern and GN services, but adding the Southeastern leg has helped kick a full fleet replacement further down the line and reduced how much Southern can bolster its fleet.

JonathanH said:
West Coastway does seem more likely though, particularly if Bournemouth depot keeps a role in their heavier maintenance. This frees up 387s for Gatwick Express and could send some more 377s to Southeastern to allow more Networkers to go for scrap, particularly as Networkers are still doing Tunbridge Wells workings.

Southeastern have been restoring/bolstering so many routes now, that Networkers are still not 100% off the routes 377s were sent to (except the Maidstone East Line). The latest timetable change saw the peak Blackfriars' diagrams reinstated with 377s, which has increased Networker allocations on Victoria-Gillingham diagrams. Anymore 377s are probably just going to finish this route off before they could even make a dent into Tunbridge Wells. Southeastern would probably need 6-8x more 377s to complete the Chatham Mainline coverage, after that they might not be able to get anymore units if Southern are to be allowed a net increase in their fleet size on its current size.

Peter Sarf · 1 Aug 2026

bramling said:
I really can’t see it being sensible for the 458s to go to SE.

I guess it would allow the last of the Metro Cammell 465s to go, so arguably it wouldn’t mean any more fleets than now, however it still makes a mess of the metro fleet. It’s already messy to have sent the 707s over.

If the 458s are going to go anywhere, the only place that’s remotely sensible is Southern, which would potentially allow Electrostars to go over to Southeastern. I’m not sure what Southern users really get out of it though. The only reason to do it is as a bridge to avoid a meltdown of the Networker fleet, though there doesn’t seem to be any suggestion that things are quite that bad.

I wonder what the possibility of re-engineering the 465s is like ?.

After all the 455s were transformed. It might have been better if South Eastern had taken those on, or Southern. I am assuming the 455s were not life expired after their re-tractioning plus they were less complex machines I suspect. No aitconditioning though.

Kind of makes sense for 458/4s to go to Southern. Operationally for GatEx which might mean we would not get Gatwick Express branded stock stopping at East Croydon and causing fear and confusion !. Oh but nothing would change there. Maintenance wise running out of Bournemouth depot might work except it is a long way away from more than just Coastaway.

I cannot remember but someone up thread said it would be ironic if the 458/4s ended up bringing ex Gatwick Express class 460 coaches back to where they started life. BUT (sadly) the 458/4s lost their former 460 coaches when they were reverted back to 4car from the 458/5s !. Maybe just as ironic in a cruel way. But I think there are too many of them.

For Gatwick Express - Bring back my beloved 442s I say.

Southern Dvr said:
How about Southern actually gets some stock to replace the 377s it’s already given away and the 313/455 that have been scrapped? Southern has had no uplift in service since Covid and so really it shouldn’t be about SE at all.

Yes. As a Southern user I have noticed some very busy off peak trains.

Southern Dvr said:
Reality is that SN hasn’t had an uplift in service since Covid and is operating at minimum service levels on some routes.

Really need more stock and the ability to run more services.

I agree.

JonathanH · 1 Aug 2026

Peter Sarf said:
Yes. As a Southern user I have noticed some very busy off peak trains.

Very busy off-peak trains don't really justify more rolling stock though, as it is peak trains which drive the fleet size.

bramling · 1 Aug 2026

JonathanH said:
There have been uplifts on some routes, including the successful recasting of the West Coastway and East Coastway timetables, and some extra trains on certain Metro routes.

Although there are some reports of Metro overcrowding in places, it seems like Southern have done well to redistribute the rolling stock to where it is needed, and have a more efficient operation as a result.

Some reports of repeatedly overcrowded services, with passengers unable to board, instead of just saying that a particular service hasn't been restored, would be helpful in this regard

Given the very insightful post by 'millemille' yesterday https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...s-in-the-next-five-years.305300/#post-7883442 about the position of procurement for Networker replacement, it certainly seems that minimising the fleet requirement for that project is a priority over providing an increase in rolling stock for Southern.

It’s a very interesting discussion, in particular the way the cost of new trains has increased significantly (do we presume this is for similar reasons as cars are now more expensive than in 2019?). This doesn’t reconcile well with the binning of serviceable fleets though.

Peter Sarf · 1 Aug 2026

JonathanH said:
Very busy off-peak trains don't really justify more rolling stock though, as it is peak trains which drive the fleet size.

Maybe if the off-peak trains are busier than the peak trains ?.

If the peaks are not overcrowded then why not run more/longer services off peak until it matches the peak.

I suspect there is a whole thread to be had on how travel patterns have changed since Covid. Perhaps there are higher carryings on some routes off peak than there are peak. One thing, if various reports are to believed, is that the peak services only need to cover three days per week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday). That undermines the financial case for new trains if payback only occurs for 60% of the original (five) days it did per week.

Or is it that the shoulder peak is just being ignored.

bramling · 1 Aug 2026

JonathanH said:
Very busy off-peak trains don't really justify more rolling stock though, as it is peak trains which drive the fleet size.

I’ve always thought this is a bit of a misnomer. If one looks at something like GN (only because that’s what I am most familiar with), the pre-2018 setup allowed a lot of maintenance of the outer-suburban fleet between the peaks. If you slim the fleet size and cut out the peak extras, when does the maintenance happen? Especially when you have an operation that has lots of outstabling. I’ve wondered if this is one reason why there seems to have been a general decline in fleet availability pretty much across the board since 2020.

PGAT · 1 Aug 2026

JonathanH said:
There have been uplifts on some routes, including the successful recasting of the West Coastway and East Coastway timetables, and some extra trains on certain Metro routes.

What Metro routes have had an uplift? All of them have had frequency cuts, shorter formations, or both. When Southeastern are seeing genuine service uplifts on the routes it's a bit frustrating to see a blind eye being turned on the Southern routes.

JonathanH said:
it seems like Southern have done well to redistribute the rolling stock to where it is needed, and have a more efficient operation as a result.

I would disagree with that. 3+3 formations on the Tulse Hill routes seems very wasteful when that could've easily been 4+4 instead, and reallocate the /3s to 10 car formations or on quieter routes for example.

SECR 65 · 1 Aug 2026

Could the 458/4s go somewhere on overhead with a conversion? Like even Northern? 769 type treatment!? Or Scotland? Anywhere else where electrification is being expanded? Could they have batteries for Uckfield / Marshlink?

JonathanH · 1 Aug 2026

SECR 65 said:
Could the 458/4s go somewhere on overhead with a conversion? Like even Northern? 769 type treatment!? Or Scotland? Anywhere else where electrification is being expanded? Could they have batteries for Uckfield / Marshlink?

They don't need to. Northern is switching its 323s for 350s, Scotrail is overhauling its 318s and 320s, and fitting DOO cameras is a whole lot cheaper than trying to modify 458s for battery or overhead working.

fgwrich · 1 Aug 2026

Southern Dvr said:
Re the DOO issue, they’d have to fit cameras for sure. Or, and here is the controversial suggestion: you put them on GatEx which doesn’t need cameras and the 387/2 become general purpose 387 which in turn frees up 377 for other work.

Please don’t! These things are already the Triggers Broom of the Southern without giving their 4th rebuild / refurbishment!

JonathanH said:
They don't need to. Northern is switching its 323s for 350s, Scotrail is overhauling its 318s and 320s, and fitting DOO cameras is a whole lot cheaper than trying to modify 458s for battery or overhead working.

Add in Scotland dumping theirs in a few years time with the large new standardised EMU order too. Plus, if ScotRail were to consider taking on more EMUs then they have already showed their hand in allowing all of the remaining 321s to go in the bin - when they could have been useful, and more common, as further 320/4s.

I think for the JOPs, it’s Coastway or Bust. Although if they do head to the south, it would mean Southern goes back to having another non-standard unit running along there again!

brad465 · 1 Aug 2026

SECR 65 said:
Could the 458/4s go somewhere on overhead with a conversion? Like even Northern? 769 type treatment!? Or Scotland? Anywhere else where electrification is being expanded? Could they have batteries for Uckfield / Marshlink?

Not worth it at this stage in their life.

sharpener · 2 Aug 2026

wickham said:
I think I am correct in saying that 458s were built for dual voltage, they have a lot of the required bits but not the actual equipment for AC. I understand that when a driver keys in on a 458 he has to select AC or DC mode, or at least this was the case before they were refurbished and may still be so. They should therefore be quite easy to fit up as AC, but of course there is the cost and the fact that the equipment may well be out-dated by now.
Of course there are the un-loved 769s, but nobody seems interested in these - I wonder why !!

Yes, wikipedia has this to say: "The trailer car was provided with a pantograph well and space for an alternating-current transformer, enabling conversion to 25 kV 50 Hz AC overhead-line operation if required at a later date."

So in theory with the pan and xformer/rectifier fitted the traction control/inverters etc should cope. But given the class's chequered history it would be a brave man to embark on that now.

devon_belle · 3 Aug 2026

Southern Dvr said:
How about Southern actually gets some stock to replace the 377s it’s already given away and the 313/455 that have been scrapped? Southern has had no uplift in service since Covid and so really it shouldn’t be about SE at all.

Hear hear!

JonathanH said:
Although there are some reports of Metro overcrowding in places, it seems like Southern have done well to redistribute the rolling stock to where it is needed, and have a more efficient operation as a result.

Some reports of repeatedly overcrowded services, with passengers unable to board, instead of just saying that a particular service hasn't been restored, would be helpful in this regard

I don't have any hard data which will be to your satisfaction, but commuting from the (far) outer suburban for the last few years I've seen trains go from nearly empty throughout their journey to full and standing on the London end. This is not the high peak either. I also notice empty Gatwick Express trains and very full London-Coast trains overtaking me on the quad track, but obviously 90% of the time I am travelling at the same few times of day. Passengers unable to board is not common in my experience, but if we were at that point it would already be too late.

Maybe Southern doesn't need all its trains back yet, but with how long it takes to get new trains ordered and built I am confident we will be at crisis levels by the end of the decade if we continue without any meaningful gain in units. How long can we keep justifying taking carriages off rammed London-Coast services to provide a slightly better than bare minimum metro service? It's difficult to estimate how many people are avoiding commuting because the trains are now so slow, infrequent, and busy – I find myself doing that when the opportunity arises. On my line on weekends and evenings many 8/10 car trains are shortened to 4/5 cars which can be crammed from start to finish. I am told this is to save electricity costs rather than to use units elsewhere, but I don't know how true that is.

For these reasons I'd be in favour of using the 458s on Gatwick Express as a self-contained fleet, if possible (DOO cameras, etc). Freeing up the current Gatwick Express diagrammed units to not go to Southeastern, instead bolstering London-Coast services to 12 car where needed and running some tactical extras on the metro.

43096 · 3 Aug 2026

Mikey C said:
Kind of full circle, considering that the 484/5s were created out of the dedicated Gatwick Express 460 units

But not at all full circle given none of the cars in the 458/4s are ex-460.

Peter Sarf · 3 Aug 2026

sharpener said:
Yes, wikipedia has this to say: "The trailer car was provided with a pantograph well and space for an alternating-current transformer, enabling conversion to 25 kV 50 Hz AC overhead-line operation if required at a later date."

So in theory with the pan and xformer/rectifier fitted the traction control/inverters etc should cope. But given the class's chequered history it would be a brave man to embark on that now.

In which case the 458s must be similar technically to the Scotrail 334s ?. Both are Alstom Junipers. So there might be less risk of conversion to AC there and of course they would then not risk forming a "micro fleet" (as in small and unique) if Scotrail took them on.

Peter Sarf · 3 Aug 2026

devon_belle said:
Hear hear!

I don't have any hard data which will be to your satisfaction, but commuting from the (far) outer suburban for the last few years I've seen trains go from nearly empty throughout their journey to full and standing on the London end. This is not the high peak either. I also notice empty Gatwick Express trains and very full London-Coast trains overtaking me on the quad track, but obviously 90% of the time I am travelling at the same few times of day. Passengers unable to board is not common in my experience, but if we were at that point it would already be too late.

Maybe Southern doesn't need all its trains back yet, but with how long it takes to get new trains ordered and built I am confident we will be at crisis levels by the end of the decade if we continue without any meaningful gain in units. How long can we keep justifying taking carriages off rammed London-Coast services to provide a slightly better than bare minimum metro service? It's difficult to estimate how many people are avoiding commuting because the trains are now so slow, infrequent, and busy – I find myself doing that when the opportunity arises. On my line on weekends and evenings many 8/10 car trains are shortened to 4/5 cars which can be crammed from start to finish. I am told this is to save electricity costs rather than to use units elsewhere, but I don't know how true that is.

For these reasons I'd be in favour of using the 458s on Gatwick Express as a self-contained fleet, if possible (DOO cameras, etc). Freeing up the current Gatwick Express diagrammed units to not go to Southeastern, instead bolstering London-Coast services to 12 car where needed and running some tactical extras on the metro.

Hear hear.

From Croydon it could be worse but it could be better. I try to travel after midday so miss the worst. But when I have to travel early its as crowded as it ever was pre Covid but trains often now take longer to load up with me and others running from door to door.

JonathanH · 3 Aug 2026

Peter Sarf said:
From Croydon it could be worse but it could be better. I try to travel after midday so miss the worst. But when I have to travel early its as crowded as it ever was pre Covid but trains often now take longer to load up with me and others running from door to door.

Equally when I went through Croydon towards London at 7am last Tuesday morning, the Southern train I got off and the Thameslink train I boarded both had spare seats, which should not be the case at that time of the morning if the supposition is that trains are overcrowded.

I totally agree however that different people will have different experiences in the realities of more varied travel patterns.

sharpener · 3 Aug 2026

Peter Sarf said:
In which case the 458s must be similar technically to the Scotrail 334s ?. Both are Alstom Junipers. So there might be less risk of conversion to AC there and of course they would then not risk forming a "micro fleet" (as in small and unique) if Scotrail took them on.

Others will know much more than me but procuring the transformers to the relevant spec might not be straightforward and I am also wondering if current EMC standards would apply, there is a lot of history of new types causing/revealing immunity problems with signalling. The 458s seem to have been subject to various re-formations and rebuilds over the years and this inevitably means deviations from the original drawings and design intent, so what looks like a straightforward upgrade on paper is anything but when the hardware turns up.

Peter Sarf · 3 Aug 2026

sharpener said:
Others will know much more than me but procuring the transformers to the relevant spec might not be straightforward and I am also wondering if current EMC standards would apply, there is a lot of history of new types causing/revealing immunity problems with signalling. The 458s seem to have been subject to various re-formations and rebuilds over the years and this inevitably means deviations from the original drawings and design intent, so what looks like a straightforward upgrade on paper is anything but when the hardware turns up.

I do wonder how much butchering (major alterations) went on with the conversion from 30 x 4car 458/0 to 36 x 5car 458/5. But I believe that was all confined to ex class 460 coaches getting different cabs and other alterations to other coaches from the class 460s to make them compatible with 458s. BUT all those coaches were dispensed with when the all 458/5s (5car) were converted (back) to 28 x 4car 458/4s. So hopefully the most altered coaches are not in the current 458/4s and the 458/4s are near enough exactly as they were when originally 458/0s

Transformer and maybe any other specific AC stuff will be the biggie.

Peter Sarf · 3 Aug 2026

JonathanH said:
Equally when I went through Croydon towards London at 7am last Tuesday morning, the Southern train I got off and the Thameslink train I boarded both had spare seats, which should not be the case at that time of the morning if the supposition is that trains are overcrowded.

I totally agree however that different people will have different experiences in the realities of more varied travel patterns.

We perhaps need to look beyond just traditional peak loadings. Things are different since Covid.

Perhaps there are more people travelling in certain off peak periods than in the peaks.

The long desired smoothing of the peaks might have actually been achieved and, dare I say it, perhaps some of the off peak periods need pricing differently (higher) or perhaps more and/or longer trains are required off peak if these are currently providing less capacity than in the peaks.

sharpener · 3 Aug 2026

Peter Sarf said:
So hopefully the most altered coaches are not in the current 458/4s and the 458/4s are near enough exactly as they were when originally 458/0s

Transformer and maybe any other specific AC stuff will be the biggie.

Good point. Space constraints on the xformer are very similar to wind turbines where the tower has a very limited doorway width to avoid reducing its structural strength too much. Making them tall and thin also makes them expensive so they were often put in a separate hut adjacent to it.

Peter Sarf · 3 Aug 2026

sharpener said:
Good point. Space constraints on the xformer are very similar to wind turbines where the tower has a very limited doorway width to avoid reducing its structural strength too much. Making them tall and thin also makes them expensive so they were often put in a separate hut adjacent to it.

I am going to assume the location for the transformer in a 458 is currently occupied by a concrete block so as to get the weight distribution right. Yhat is common amongst units designed for AC purposes and DC only purposes.
Hopefully transformer normally slung underneath so any similar transformer used on newer EMUs might do.

norbitonflyer · 3 Aug 2026

Peter Sarf said:
I do wonder how much butchering (major alterations) went on with the conversion from 30 x 4car 458/0 to 36 x 5car 458/5. But I believe that was all confined to ex class 460 coaches getting different cabs...........So hopefully the most altered coaches are not in the current 458/4s and the 458/4s are near enough exactly as they were when originally 458/0s

No, all the driving cars, whether ex-458 or ex-460, were extensively modified when converted to 458/5 so that units could be joined/separated in service.

(Note the first two pictures are both of the same unit)

Some dc classes were delivered with the ac gear included in the deal, (but not fitted) for later possible conversion.

The 365s were like that, and I think the 707s as well - certainly some of them had pantographs.
Whether the TOCs have stored the equipment in usable condition is a good question though.

sharpener · 3 Aug 2026

Peter Sarf said:
I am going to assume the location for the transformer in a 458 is currently occupied by a concrete block so as to get the weight distribution right. Yhat is common amongst units designed for AC purposes and DC only purposes.
Hopefully transformer normally slung underneath so any similar transformer used on newer EMUs might do.

What I haven't yet discovered is if the standard Alstom ONIX 800 traction package has a (currently unused) input that can directly take the low(er) voltage output from the xformer or whether a separate rectifier stage needs to be added as well.

Also I would be interested to know what form of energy storage is used to smooth the rectified AC, the obvious method is a bank of capacitors but IIRC Siemens use a big choke for something, the frequency tolerance of which was at the root of the 2019 failures.

Peter Sarf · 3 Aug 2026

norbitonflyer said:
No, all the driving cars, whether ex-458 or ex-460, were extensively modified when converted to 458/5 so that units could be joined/separated in service.

(Note the first two pictures are both of the same unit)

I had forgotten how pug ugly those original 458s were. Really looked like someone ran out of time when designing the front end.

I don't suppose, if cosmetic, the changes would affect AC vs DC use.
But how cosmetic ?
I remember the gangway connection was hiding behind those doors on the front of the original 458s !.
But could only be joined/separated when at a depot.

norbitonflyer said:
Some dc classes were delivered with the ac gear included in the deal, (but not fitted) for later possible conversion.

The 365s were like that, and I think the 707s as well - certainly some of them had pantographs.
Whether the TOCs have stored the equipment in usable condition is a good question though.

Probably 707s (2 off iirc) AC parts used up as spares for 717s.
365s is a good example of DC 365s going to GN and getting used on AC.

London Trains · 3 Aug 2026

devon_belle said:
Hear hear!

I don't have any hard data which will be to your satisfaction, but commuting from the (far) outer suburban for the last few years I've seen trains go from nearly empty throughout their journey to full and standing on the London end. This is not the high peak either. I also notice empty Gatwick Express trains and very full London-Coast trains overtaking me on the quad track, but obviously 90% of the time I am travelling at the same few times of day. Passengers unable to board is not common in my experience, but if we were at that point it would already be too late.

Maybe Southern doesn't need all its trains back yet, but with how long it takes to get new trains ordered and built I am confident we will be at crisis levels by the end of the decade if we continue without any meaningful gain in units. How long can we keep justifying taking carriages off rammed London-Coast services to provide a slightly better than bare minimum metro service? It's difficult to estimate how many people are avoiding commuting because the trains are now so slow, infrequent, and busy – I find myself doing that when the opportunity arises. On my line on weekends and evenings many 8/10 car trains are shortened to 4/5 cars which can be crammed from start to finish. I am told this is to save electricity costs rather than to use units elsewhere, but I don't know how true that is.

For these reasons I'd be in favour of using the 458s on Gatwick Express as a self-contained fleet, if possible (DOO cameras, etc). Freeing up the current Gatwick Express diagrammed units to not go to Southeastern, instead bolstering London-Coast services to 12 car where needed and running some tactical extras on the metro.

Completely agree with this, my observations are much the same, though I have also seen/been on quite a few services where passengers are unable to board.

As you mention, it really doesn't make sense why there are so many short 4/5 coach trains (and 8 coaches on London-Coast services) running around at off peak times, weekends and evenings, when strengthening the majority of these services wouldn't actually require any more units.

Peter Sarf · 4 Aug 2026

London Trains said:
Completely agree with this, my observations are much the same, though I have also seen/been on quite a few services where passengers are unable to board.

As you mention, it really doesn't make sense why there are so many short 4/5 coach trains (and 8 coaches on London-Coast services) running around at off peak times, weekends and evenings, when strengthening the majority of these services wouldn't actually require any more units.

One way there might not be enough units for the off peak is if there are actually less needed in the peaks. I certainly think the peaks are not as extreme as they were compared to the off-peak.

It may also be that the units are being serviced in the off peak.

What I am wondering is - how much of a shift has there been from peak to off peak travel since Covid ?

Firstly peaks are not very busy on Mondays and Fridays nowadays with people working from home two or three days a week and tending to add Monday or Friday to the weekend - even though they are "working from home" on those days. Then they are travelling off peak for Tuesday to Thursday because they don't want to buy a season ticket for only three days travel a week. That is a lot of lucrative income gone.

Secondly I have encountered those who do up to five short days at the office with a few hours at home in the morning. They are no longer paying for or travelling peak times. That's more lucrative income gone unless a season is cheaper per week than five off peak returns.

So maybe the question will be how much do off peak (or hopefully shoulder peak) fares need to rise ?.

73128 · 10 Aug 2026

SECR 65 said:
Could the 458/4s go somewhere on overhead with a conversion? Like even Northern? 769 type treatment!? Or Scotland? Anywhere else where electrification is being expanded? Could they have batteries for Uckfield / Marshlink?

both lines should have dc laid down soonest...

SWR class 458/4 - possible withdrawal speculation

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