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Lack of train orders in the next five years & what should be done about it

MrC

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The point stands though, even to hold off for 3-4 years will see a huge leap in battery technology.
Possibly. ISTR something similar being promised for nuclear fusion and that's still a long way off 8-) Unfortunately we can't commit long term plans based on intangibles, we have to plan with what's possible now and realistically pure BEMU is only suitable for a limited use-case.
 
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GRALISTAIR

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The only problem will be -putting off forever BEMU ordering because something better is just around the corner.
 

MrC

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Those trains were also specced without any consideration to the traction systems capability which led to a big bill and trains with high installed power thats never been fully exploited.
Thanks for reminding me! I can remember a 444 taking full power in the wheels-free Wareham - Weymouth testing and a 442 taking power in the opposite direction just died !
 

Rab Smith

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The only problem will be -putting off forever BEMU ordering because something better is just around the corner.
I personally don't see that happening as fleets get older with the problems age causes, the orders for new trains will be necessary sooner than later. What I think will happen with procurement though is future proofing. Easy swap outs for new battery technology will enable the manufacturers to build trains in the meantime that can be upgraded in the future.
 

MrC

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I personally don't see that happening as fleets get older with the problems age causes, the orders for new trains will be necessary sooner than later. What I think will happen with procurement though is future proofing. Easy swap outs for new battery technology will enable the manufacturers to build trains in the meantime that can be upgraded in the future.
Quite. Another option is to see what other countries have been quietly getting on with while we've been navel-watching. See SNCF/Alstom/CAF's TER efforts as an example.
 

InTheEastMids

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Those with longer memories might even remember the issues caused by class 444/450 rigid bogies causing excessive track wear which I suspect could've been avoided or mitigated if NR had been involved with at an earlier stage rather than reacting to it once the trains were damaging the track.
There are some with even longer memories who will remember the issues caused by class 86 bogies causing track damage. And that was when BR was effectively a single infrastructure, operating company and engineer!

The only problem will be -putting off forever BEMU ordering because something better is just around the corner.
Agree with this. I think a significant weakness of the original NR traction decarbonisation strategy (only really visible with the clarity of hindsight) is that it didn't anticipate (or obviously scenario-plan) how battery costs would decline. So there is also a temptation to wait as every improvement in battery tech leaves a little bit less network to electrify and a few £ saved (although there is still quite a lot of apparently no-regrets electrification that is required in any sensible battery scenario).

Another option is to see what other countries have been quietly getting on with while we've been navel-watching
...in a less restrictive loading gauge. That's not to say nothing can be learned, but the Cl810 programme is my Exhibit A in the debate about whether it is quick, easy and cheap to package stuff into a smaller train. The 810s were an example of joined up infrastructure/stock thinking as, when MMLE was cancelled (2017 version), the industry went out and developed a very detailed specification for just the right number of bimode trains that could make the most of 240m platforms and match Cl222 performance on diesel, which has led to the 810s being a small fleet of very different train to other 80x.

It would be very easy to repeat this error on future procurements. For instance, trying to pack every last kWh of battery in to enhance range meaning other kit is smaller than it should be, hard to inspect, maintain or repair. Or you get heat management issues - particularly if the idea is to have fewer, but more intensively used gensets.
 

TheSmiths82

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Maybe slightly off topic but with nationalisation shouldn't there be a push to buy British built trains rather than for example CAF units which have a mixed reliability record at best? I know TFGM now have a policy of buying British built vehicles where they can, although it does sadly mean suffering a lot of Bamford owned Wrightbus products.
 

The exile

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The only problem will be -putting off forever BEMU ordering because something better is just around the corner.
Surely all it means is that we proceed slowly - there must be plenty of scope for battery bi-modes on routes that are already within battery capability - cascading newer dmus as and where appropriate (and slowly adding electrified kms - continuous or discontinuous as appropriate). Routes that require longer battery life await either more capable batteries or mid-route recharging facilities.
 

brad465

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Makes sense to hold off orders for BEMU's as the technology in even the space of a couple of years will be vastly superior to what it is now. The new sodium battery technology looks like it could be a major game changer for the battery supply chain.
Ah yes the bionic duckweed argument. I'd be building a modular design that allows batteries to be replaced with enhanced ones further down the line, but keeps the rest of the train the same.
 

sharpener

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The 810s were an example of joined up infrastructure/stock thinking as, when MMLE was cancelled (2017 version), the industry went out and developed a very detailed specification for just the right number of bimode trains that could make the most of 240m platforms and match Cl222 performance on diesel, which has led to the 810s being a small fleet of very different train to other 80x.

It would be very easy to repeat this error on future procurements. For instance, trying to pack every last kWh of battery in to enhance range meaning other kit is smaller than it should be, hard to inspect, maintain or repair. Or you get heat management issues - particularly if the idea is to have fewer, but more intensively used gensets.
Ah yes the bionic duckweed argument. I'd be building a modular design that allows batteries to be replaced with enhanced ones further down the line, but keeps the rest of the train the same.

Trouble is that as we see with the Borders rly or E-W rly once you have optimised the discontinuous OHLE for a particular battery spec then having better batteries later on doesn't save you the capital cost you have already incurred.
 

CdBrux

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I personally don't see that happening as fleets get older with the problems age causes, the orders for new trains will be necessary sooner than later. What I think will happen with procurement though is future proofing. Easy swap outs for new battery technology will enable the manufacturers to build trains in the meantime that can be upgraded in the future.

Wouldn't there need to be at least an element of this as batteries (even if replaced like for like which isn't going to happen) would be expected to be replaced at least once if not twice during the lifetime of the overall unit (and replaced due to old age, not just something is now much better)
 

andyjhatton

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How long is it going to be until a battery train could make it 140miles from Cardiff to Crewe?
Or 112 miles between Marylebone and Birmingham?

Those sorts of distances feel pie in the sky for a battery train for a matter of decades frankly, let alone years.
Unless there's infrastructure spend on partial electrification to allow charging on the go.
And how many miles would have to be wired to concurrently provide traction power and recharge batteries.

I'm not sure some folk have their feet on the ground when it comes to the sorts of distances involved on some routes with no existing electrification.
At least the Cardiff - Crewe example has wires at either end. Marylebone through to Birmingham Snow Hill has none whatsoever.
 

James James

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Maybe slightly off topic but with nationalisation shouldn't there be a push to buy British built trains rather than for example CAF units which have a mixed reliability record at best? I know TFGM now have a policy of buying British built vehicles where they can, although it does sadly mean suffering a lot of Bamford owned Wrightbus products.
As long as you're OK with other countries banning the purchase of British built trains in return... oh, wait.
 

Farigiraf

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As long as you're OK with other countries banning the purchase of British built trains in return... oh, wait.
Most other countries do already prioritise home-built rolling stock though, it's just that not everywhere is capable of doing that on a large scale for various reasons which are not usually tied to political point-scoring.
These can include the cost of setting it up (compared to buying cheap CAF/Talgo/CRRC units), quality (not everywhere has a developed train manufacturing industry), or low potential demand as a result of either an isolated location (e.g. Ireland) or sparse railway network (where the gaps between orders would be too high).

For example, since Poland has started renewing its regional railway network, it can now justify large-scale domestic train production due to high demand. The UK's boom and bust rolling stock strategy likely makes a British-based train manufacturing company too risky, and you couldn't really rely too much on foreign orders to keep it going as other European manufacturers have the major benefit of being located on the actual continent, not an island.

It certainly can't help Newton Aycliffe, Newport or Litchurch Lane that their trains don't exactly have the best track record though, and the lack of many tram networks in GB also reduces potential demand.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Maybe slightly off topic but with nationalisation shouldn't there be a push to buy British built trains rather than for example CAF units which have a mixed reliability record at best? I know TFGM now have a policy of buying British built vehicles where they can, although it does sadly mean suffering a lot of Bamford owned Wrightbus products.
CAF, Hitachi and Alstom trains are "British built" (ie assembled here) but largely designed overseas.
Siemens can build you a German-designed train in Goole.
Stadler hasn't (yet) got a UK assembly site.

Hitachi class 80x trains for the UK have been assembled in Japan and Italy as well as the UK, all from the same kit of largely Japan-designed components.
Ironically the class 802 fleet was assembled in Italy (ex-Ansaldo) with low quality expectations, but I'm not aware they are any less reliable than those assembled here.
 

sharpener

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Maybe slightly off topic but with nationalisation shouldn't there be a push to I British built trains rather than for example CAF units which have a mixed reliability record at best? I know TFGM now have a policy of buying British built vehicles where they can, although it does sadly mean suffering a lot of Bamford owned Wrightbus products.
You have partly answered your own question.

Are we to not buy Hitachi trains any more on account of the lamentable 810 reliability? The 80x are good now IMO although they too had horrendous teething problems with cracking. Difficult to know which snapshot is representative.

I await the rolling stock/infrastructure strategy with interest. Unfortunately we cannot unpick 40 yrs of microfleets, bad industrial policy decisions, lack of union co-operation, poor DfT oversight, ROSCOs' financial games et al which have given us a ramshackle mix of types on the network with very poor interoperability.
 

43096

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Are we to not buy Hitachi trains any more on account of the lamentable 810 reliability? The 80x are good now IMO although they too had horrendous teething problems with cracking. Difficult to know which snapshot is representative.
It's not hard to work it out. The 80x are not "good now" - the cracking issues remain but are being "managed", but the ride quality is still diabolical and Hitachi's attitude towards its customers remains unprofessional at best. If there was any sense on the railway, Hitachi would not be seeing a new train order.
 

Peter Sarf

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Trouble is that as we see with the Borders rly or E-W rly once you have optimised the discontinuous OHLE for a particular battery spec then having better batteries later on doesn't save you the capital cost you have already incurred.
Having better batteries installed later on means those units can move onto routes that can benefit from them and were up till then too little electrified. Then buy new units for the existing line. Or you just reduce the weight of the existing unit.
How long is it going to be until a battery train could make it 140miles from Cardiff to Crewe?
Or 112 miles between Marylebone and Birmingham?

Those sorts of distances feel pie in the sky for a battery train for a matter of decades frankly, let alone years.
Unless there's infrastructure spend on partial electrification to allow charging on the go.
And how many miles would have to be wired to concurrently provide traction power and recharge batteries.

I'm not sure some folk have their feet on the ground when it comes to the sorts of distances involved on some routes with no existing electrification.
At least the Cardiff - Crewe example has wires at either end. Marylebone through to Birmingham Snow Hill has none whatsoever.
For Marylebone/Birmingham I would electrify the majority that is simple, poosibly do intermediate complexities and leave out the expensive per mile ends where all the complex point work (and Marylebone tunnel) is. Current battery technology can probably handle that.

Of course with each end of Cardiff/Crewe already done you might look at extending from the ends towards the middle.
You have partly answered your own question.

Are we to not buy Hitachi trains any more on account of the lamentable 810 reliability? The 80x are good now IMO although they too had horrendous teething problems with cracking. Difficult to know which snapshot is representative.
I think the 80x are still suffering cracking, it is just better managed. The harsh ride passengers feel is still shaking the 80x body shells to bits where they connect to the bogies !.
I await the rolling stock/infrastructure strategy with interest. Unfortunately we cannot unpick 40 yrs of microfleets, bad industrial policy decisions, lack of union co-operation, poor DfT oversight, ROSCOs' financial games et al which have given us a ramshackle mix of types on the network with very poor interoperability.
ROSCOs probably pandered to the bespoke requirements each aspirational operator had in their endeavour to win the bid to run that service group.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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CAF, Hitachi and Alstom trains are "British built" (ie assembled here) but largely designed overseas.
Siemens can build you a German-designed train in Goole.
Stadler hasn't (yet) got a UK assembly site.

Hitachi class 80x trains for the UK have been assembled in Japan and Italy as well as the UK, all from the same kit of largely Japan-designed components.
Ironically the class 802 fleet was assembled in Italy (ex-Ansaldo) with low quality expectations, but I'm not aware they are any less reliable than those assembled here.
Alstom have design capability at Derby and have developed the Adessia platform there. Yet to secure any orders but one has to presume thats what they've bid for any EMU/BEMU requirements.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Alstom have design capability at Derby and have developed the Adessia platform there. Yet to secure any orders but one has to presume thats what they've bid for any EMU/BEMU requirements.
Yes, but major components will come from outside the UK (eg electrics, bogies, power packs and probably batteries). The supply chain is global these days, just like for cars.
 

sharpener

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The 80x are not "good now" - the cracking issues remain but are being "managed", but the ride quality is still diabolical and Hitachi's attitude towards its customers remains unprofessional at best.
Perhaps "good" was an exaggeration but from my PoV as an occasional passenger their availability is good, the only one cancelled on me recently (Gt Malvern - PAD on a Sunday) was crew shortage. Am not really conscious of the bad ride/hard seats though it doesn't compare with HST. Poor alignment of seats with windows is my main complaint.
Having better batteries installed later on means those units can move onto routes that can benefit from them and were up till then too little electrified. Then buy new units for the existing line. Or you just reduce the weight of the existing unit.
Makes no sense to enhance existing trains, cascade them and build replacements ?to existing spec. Just build new longer range units for the other route to begin with. Or am I missing sthg? If you mean when the original batteries are end of life, just fit smaller lighter hopefully cheaper replacements.
For Marylebone/Birmingham I would electrify the majority that is simple, poosibly do intermediate complexities and leave out the expensive per mile ends where all the complex point work (and Marylebone tunnel) is. Current battery technology can probably handle that.
Doesn't address the issue of diesel pollution at the termini. I suspect this is cosmetic/greenwashing though, doubt if it is a real problem compared with road traffic anyway.
 

The exile

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Doesn't address the issue of diesel pollution at the termini. I suspect this is cosmetic/greenwashing though, doubt if it is a real problem compared with road traffic anyway.
Battery trains that recharge / run from wires where they are available do, though. Yes, they’d possibly have a “limp home if all else fails” diesel engine, but not one designed for day to day use.
 

Invincible

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Yes, but major components will come from outside the UK (eg electrics, bogies, power packs and probably batteries). The supply chain is global these days, just like for cars.
The Chinese Government invested in battery technology and this can be seen in cars and buses in the UK.

Alstrom's Adessia platform is now tried, but they are having problems with batteries with the new DART+ trains in Dublin. The French battery supplier OP Mobility also supplies other companies, but has admitted problems and have new batteries for 2027. When ready these will probably be the most advanced train batteries.
All train manufactures are keeping an eye on various current train battery operations with a view to getting more orders.
The fast charge class 230 units at Ealing will also be part of this as charging and range will be important.
Battery trains that recharge / run from wires where they are available do, though. Yes, they’d possibly have a “limp home if all else fails” diesel engine, but not one designed for day to day use.
In some electric cars and London taxis they have a small petrol or diesel engine used as a "range extender" for this, so most likely to be used in some battery trains.
 

D365

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In some electric cars and London taxis they have a small petrol or diesel engine used as a "range extender" for this, so most likely to be used in some battery trains.
The diesel element of the TfW Class 230s is more-or-less a ’range extender’.
 

sharpener

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Battery trains that recharge / run from wires where they are available do, though. Yes, they’d possibly have a “limp home if all else fails” diesel engine, but not one designed for day to day use.
My misunderstanding. But if not over the complex point work would you put wires up just over the platforms so they can recharge while waiting there to form the outbound service? Otherwise you are not making best use of the dwell time.
 

The exile

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My misunderstanding. But if not over the complex point work would you put wires up just over the platforms so they can recharge while waiting there to form the outbound service? Otherwise you are not making best use of the dwell time.
That to me is one of the inherent dilemmas of partial electrification. The places where it makes most sense to have wiring are precisely those likely to be most complex / expensive to wire. That is, termini and principal nodes.
 

MrJeeves

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Not sure, I just remembered there was a thread about this a year ago (below). It was mentioned, but didn’t get an entry in the sticky thread in this forum, because there was too little detail.
The only problem will be -putting off forever BEMU ordering because something better is just around the corner.

At least we know a BEMU order is coming as Chiltern are hiring/have hired for a BEMU fleet replacement programme lead.

 

sharpener

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That to me is one of the inherent dilemmas of partial electrification. The places where it makes most sense to have wiring are precisely those likely to be most complex / expensive to wire. That is, termini and principal nodes.
Maybe do it with something other than 25kV OHLE at termini then, what about a shore power cable at 750V or whatever the xformer secondary or internal bus runs at, has this been tried? Side contact third rail? I imagine most things have been looked at.
 

Peter Sarf

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Perhaps "good" was an exaggeration but from my PoV as an occasional passenger their availability is good, the only one cancelled on me recently (Gt Malvern - PAD on a Sunday) was crew shortage. Am not really conscious of the bad ride/hard seats though it doesn't compare with HST. Poor alignment of seats with windows is my main complaint.

Makes no sense to enhance existing trains, cascade them and build replacements ?to existing spec. Just build new longer range units for the other route to begin with. Or am I missing sthg? If you mean when the original batteries are end of life, just fit smaller lighter hopefully cheaper replacements.
In the UK we used to move older trains onto lesser routes. Thus the more important routes got newer trains. Even nowadays the 222s are leaving the Midland main line for Scotland (mostly), that is because the route the 222s currently work is gradually getting electrified.

With the battery range falling with age this will only work if batteries are replaced. Lesser routes are less likely to get significant amounts of electrification BUT older battery EMUs with replacement batteries (assuming a better range with newer technology) will suffice for lesser routes at some point in the future. Whereas the brand new trains for an important route might get smaller lighter batteries. That would be for two reasons 1) the new units have the same range for less battery weight/space 2) more electrification of the important routes is carried out.

Of course this assumes a steady progression of electrification over the coming decades. Something the UK has proved incapable of.
Oh well just build diesel trains then.
Doesn't address the issue of diesel pollution at the termini. I suspect this is cosmetic/greenwashing though, doubt if it is a real problem compared with road traffic anyway.
Was talking about battery power. Only small diesel, as a get out of jail card.
My misunderstanding. But if not over the complex point work would you put wires up just over the platforms so they can recharge while waiting there to form the outbound service? Otherwise you are not making best use of the dwell time.
+
Maybe do it with something other than 25kV OHLE at termini then, what about a shore power cable at 750V or whatever the xformer secondary or internal bus runs at, has this been tried? Side contact third rail? I imagine most things have been looked at.
I think a fast charge method like that successfully trialled at West Ealing with the 230 is most likely for charging at termini.
That to me is one of the inherent dilemmas of partial electrification. The places where it makes most sense to have wiring are precisely those likely to be most complex / expensive to wire. That is, termini and principal nodes.
Not sure the station dwells are the best place to charge, particularly over a long route. Batteries and charging technology are not yet going get you around 100 miles range at line speeds of 80+ mph. After all the battery energy is unlikely to last for the majority of a long route so the best thing to do is electrify the longer easy bits. The train will be able to gain charge when not accelerating hard (obviously regenerative braking as well).

But fast charging might get you somewhere, far enough to reduce the amount of wired route.
 

The exile

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Not sure the station dwells are the best place to charge, particularly over a long route. Batteries and charging technology are not yet going get you around 100 miles range at line speeds of 80+ mph. After all the battery energy is unlikely to last for the majority of a long route so the best thing to do is electrify the longer easy bits. The train will be able to gain charge when not accelerating hard (obviously regenerative braking as well)
Other than the dwell time (which I agree isn’t going to be enough), the other reason for wiring termini is that they tend to be in precisely those places where there is pressure to reduce diesel emissions.
Node points bring the advantage of giving you coverage of two ;(or more) routes with one installation / grid connection.
 

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