Wales plan to take over 10% of UK rail network

Zomboid · 29 Jul 2026

Meole said:
This clearly sets out the consequence of failing to provide investment in Wales, a fair settlement would obviously uplift passenger journeys to comparative levels

Passenger numbers in Wales are a function of the low population total and density. You could multiply funding by 50 and you still probably wouldn't get to 10% of the total network passenger numbers involving Wales.

Anyway, that was actually to make the point that route mileage isn't by itself a useful measure of how much funding the system needs.

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gabrielhj07 · 29 Jul 2026

Being a capital isn't really what defines rail service from London though, proximity is. In the same way that Doncaster isn't a capital city, but receives more London trains than Edinburgh.

The Planner · 29 Jul 2026

Meole said:
This clearly sets out the consequence of failing to provide investment in Wales, a fair settlement would obviously uplift passenger journeys to comparative levels.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Jul 2026 ==

Clearly Wales should control the Marches line as it is key national infrastructure, the English towns en route could retain stoppers providing through trains had priority, the case for Aberystwyth to Birmingham International is equally strong as its vital for international students, Cardiff to London is perhaps arguably given Bristol is a reasonably significant city but surely Cardiff capital status should take precedence.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Jul 2026 ==

Lumo should be required to share its farebox with Wales who should have the final say.

Aberystwyth to International is operational convenience that has worked out well. If/when the West Mids ever gets recast, I wouldnt be so sure on it getting past New St.

Virginfan123 · 29 Jul 2026

The Planner said:
Aberystwyth to International is operational convenience that has worked out well. If/when the West Mids ever gets recast, I wouldnt be so sure on it getting past New St.

Realistically, that service should be terminated at Platform 6 at Wolverhampton. Having a 2 car 158 trundling through a very busy mainline which has no spare capactiy is ridiculous. People could instead transfer to a different service at Wolverhampton, potentially allowing another WMR stopping service etc. to make better use of the path

oldman · 29 Jul 2026

Meole said:
the case for [the Cardiff administration controlling] Aberystwyth to Birmingham International is equally strong as its vital for international students

Or maybe equally weak. There are just 1120 non-UK students at Aberystwyth (source) so it's not a major traffic source.

HSTEd · 30 Jul 2026

Zomboid said:
Cherry picked statistics can tell you very little other than about the agenda of the person who cherry picked them.

You could just as easily say that (according to a quick Google, numbers might not be accurate) there were 31.5 million passenger journeys in Wales last FY, plus 10.5 million cross border journeys, of a total in GB of 1.83 billion. So around 2% of all rail passenger journeys involved Wales.

I think its telling that the English stations on the Welsh Marches line have journey totals which would be a significant proportion for the total for all of Wales. Shrewsbury and Hereford have over 3 million entries and exits between them.

Wales has an issue in that in population terms it is essentially two regions separated by a very low population density interior, and with a rather small total population (<5% of the UK population).

I think services in North East Wales (for example on the Wrexham-Bidston line) would be best operated fully integrated with those of North West England. The economic, social and railway geography doesn't really cleave to the border after all

Harpo · 30 Jul 2026

Virginfan123 said:
Realistically, that service should be terminated at Platform 6 at Wolverhampton. Having a 2 car 158 trundling through a very busy mainline which has no spare capactiy is ridiculous. People could instead transfer to a different service at Wolverhampton, potentially allowing another WMR stopping service etc. to make better use of the path

ATWs Birminghams are predominantly booked 4 cars, the same length as almost all trains on the Wolves to Shrewsbury line.

There are however booked 2/3 cars services to Wales running through New Street every hour, XC’s Cardiffs.

LNW-GW Joint · 30 Jul 2026

Zomboid said:
Passenger numbers in Wales are a function of the low population total and density. You could multiply funding by 50 and you still probably wouldn't get to 10% of the total network passenger numbers involving Wales.
Anyway, that was actually to make the point that route mileage isn't by itself a useful measure of how much funding the system needs.

Route and track mileage is a reasonable initial guide to the costs of running the railway.
There's other big factors like line speed, route structure, signalling, electrification etc.
With its preponderance of single track rural routes Wales will do less well than many English regions, except for the SWML zone east of Swansea.
Maybe the CVL/Metro operation will get there eventually, but it's not there yet.

The Mark Berry paper is an excellent analysis of Wales & Borders historic funding.
The map he uses is a bit weird in the Chester/Shrewsbury areas, but he has listed the NR borders correctly.
The NR Wales Route almost reaches Crewe, but there is a chunk of Wales around Chester which lies outside the route.

krus_aragon · 30 Jul 2026

Energy said:
HS2 to Crewe would allow more North Wales-to-London services... but I wouldn't consider that benefit equal to the several billion Wales would likely receive had it been an "England" project.

With an hourly path already existing for Euston-Chester services, HS2 doesn't need to be built for North Wales - London's 6 trains-per-day service frequency to be increased. (HS2 would make space to go beyond 1tph, but I don't think there's any scope for that sort of demand.)

Virginfan123 · 30 Jul 2026

krus_aragon said:
With an hourly path already existing for Euston-Chester services, HS2 doesn't need to be built for North Wales - London's 6 trains-per-day service frequency to be increased. (HS2 would make space to go beyond 1tph, but I don't think there's any scope for that sort of demand.)

It would also allow for the new WSMR operation to run, connecting Wrexham and the other towns along the line, aswell as giving better connections to central wales via Shrewsbury.

6Gman · 30 Jul 2026

tbtc said:
With climate related problems affecting rural routes, I think I'd be very careful if I was arguing for transferring the maintenance responsibilities/costs to my budget so that I would have to find the money every time the fragile Conwy Valley line needed a few more million pounds throwing at it

Same with next time the Barmouth Viaduct needs thirty million pounds spending on it etc

That'll be rebuilt anyway for the CU1* Bangor - Carmarthen line.

* Cyflymder Uchel 1 (= High Speed 1), the high priority scheme for a high speed north-south link that doesn't involve a single mile in England.

Virginfan123 · 30 Jul 2026

6Gman said:
That'll be rebuilt anyway for the CU1* Bangor - Carmarthen line.

* Cyflymder Uchel 1 (= High Speed 1), the high priority scheme for a high speed north-south link that doesn't involve a single mile in England.

That line will never be highspeed, if it is even built at all. The max speed it could really achieve is 100 mph and that is only along the short straight stretches. Not to mention that the journey time from Cardiff to Bangor would still probably be quicker going via the current route.

The line from Camarthen to Aberystwyth should absolutely be reinstated allowing a direct service from Cardiff - Aberystyth.

If Wales was ever the recieve a high speed line (which it won't), It should be along the Newport-Cardiff-Swansea corridor, allowing more frequent commuter services aswell as faster overall journeys

D6130 · 30 Jul 2026

Virginfan123 said:
The line from Camarthen to Aberystwyth should absolutely be reinstated allowing a direct service from Cardiff - Aberystyth

If you've ever ridden on the Gwili Railway, you'll realise how slow and tortuous that line was. A complete non-starter for a modern North-South link.

Krokodil · 30 Jul 2026

Virginfan123 said:
The line from Camarthen to Aberystwyth should absolutely be reinstated allowing a direct service from Cardiff - Aberystyth.

Why? It's 50 miles with no significant intermediate settlements. At least Bangor-Afonwen is only 25 miles and has Caernarfon as an intermediate stop.

The Planner · 30 Jul 2026

Virginfan123 said:
Realistically, that service should be terminated at Platform 6 at Wolverhampton. Having a 2 car 158 trundling through a very busy mainline which has no spare capactiy is ridiculous. People could instead transfer to a different service at Wolverhampton, potentially allowing another WMR stopping service etc. to make better use of the path

You can't get into 6 from the north. Its always going to end up at New St as its a direct link from Shrewsbury and Telford to Birmingham. You would never reduce those services.

The Pelican · 30 Jul 2026

If Welsh reopenings are being considered, I'd like to put Merthyr Tydfil Station- Tallylyn Junction- Brecon (Reverse) - Tallylyn Junction- Bulith Wells-Bulith Road Station. It would massively improve the usefulness of the Northern part of the Heart of Wales line, connect the valley lines northwards, and reattach the 9,000 person town of Brecon to the network. It would require finding a way to double the track alongside the Brecon Mountain Railway, so that 2ft gauge railway could have one, and the mainline network the other.

Virginfan123 · 31 Jul 2026

The Planner said:
You can't get into 6 from the north. Its always going to end up at New St as its a direct link from Shrewsbury and Telford to Birmingham. You would never reduce those services.

i didnt realise you cant access platform six but Shrewsbury - New Street currently has 3tph anyway, of which one was added only last year if I remember correctly.

Harpo · 31 Jul 2026

Virginfan123 said:
Shrewsbury - New Street currently has 3tph anyway, of which one was added only last year if I remember correctly.

Only 2 of the 3TPH on Shrewsbury to Birmingham run up the Stour. The third (stopping) serves Darlaston/Willenhall and is overtaken by a Liverpool service via the Stour in both directions.

Shrewsbury has enough WCML connectivity issues as it is so the fast TfW service is a good option when not short formed.

amahy · 31 Jul 2026

Harpo said:
Only 2 of the 3TPH on Shrewsbury to Birmingham run up the Stour. The third (stopping) serves Darlaston/Willenhall and is overtaken by a Liverpool service via the Stour in both directions.

Shrewsbury has enough WCML connectivity issues as it is so the fast TfW service is a good option when not short formed.

I agree. But the reality is, it is regularly short formed, and has been since Arriva Trains Wales days!

I have long been in favour of TfW’s service terminating at Wolverhampton, and being replaced by a new hourly Manchester - Crewe - Birmingham International service, but this would never happen unfortunately.

317 forever · 2 Aug 2026

It seems fair to allow the Senedd as much say into decisions affecting Network Rail in Wales as the Scottish Parliament have in decisions affecting Network Rail in Scotland.

There would need to be a clause allowing the UK government to regain control in case, for example, a Reform-led Senedd chose to instruct Network Rail Cymru to neglect the Mid Wales line for example.

Akela · 3 Aug 2026

317 forever said:
It seems fair to allow the Senedd as much say into decisions affecting Network Rail in Wales as the Scottish Parliament have in decisions affecting Network Rail in Scotland.

There would need to be a clause allowing the UK government to regain control in case, for example, a Reform-led Senedd chose to instruct Network Rail Cymru to neglect the Mid Wales line for example.

There’s more chance that Reform will gain control over the UK government than the Welsh government though.

Falcon1200 · 3 Aug 2026

317 forever said:
There would need to be a clause allowing the UK government to regain control in case, for example, a Reform-led Senedd

So it is only fair to allow the Senedd to have influence over Network Rail in Wales if certain parties are in power? While I agree that is is unlikely (and undesirable) that Reform would win power in Wales, if they did it would be what the people voted for!

GRALISTAIR · 3 Aug 2026

317 forever said:
It seems fair to allow the Senedd as much say into decisions affecting Network Rail in Wales as the Scottish Parliament have in decisions affecting Network Rail in Scotland.

I absolutely agree.

317 forever said:
There would need to be a clause allowing the UK government to regain control in case, for example, a Reform-led Senedd chose to instruct Network Rail Cymru to neglect the Mid Wales line for example.

I absolutely disagree.

HSTEd · 3 Aug 2026

I don't see further fragmentation of the railway system as at all desirable.

I think that the more interfaces are created the more hamstrung any attempt to deal with the railway's problems will become.
Under the status quo the people of Wales have a say over the operation of Network Rail in any case, and the anomalies of today only get worse if the Welsh government obtains control (or de-facto control) of railways in England.

squingo44 · 3 Aug 2026

I’m a fan of this if it results in more rail capital investment. I’d like to see the Newport-Wrexham line get built.

zwk500 · 3 Aug 2026

squingo44 said:
I’m a fan of this if it results in more rail capital investment. I’d like to see the Newport-Wrexham line get built.

Newport, Shropshire presumably? Any particular reason why? It feels like connecting that particular Newport with Stafford or Telford would be far more useful to the town.

Akela · 3 Aug 2026

HSTEd said:
I don't see further fragmentation of the railway system as at all desirable.

I think that the more interfaces are created the more hamstrung any attempt to deal with the railway's problems will become.
Under the status quo the people of Wales have a say over the operation of Network Rail in any case, and the anomalies of today only get worse if the Welsh government obtains control (or de-facto control) of railways in England.

Under the status quo, the only real improvements to rail infrastructure in Wales recently has been the infrastructure that the Welsh government owns outright (the CVL network). Had those lines not been devolved then they would have never been electrified.

And in any case, devolution of rail infrastructure in Wales isn’t going to be extend to track in England, it’ll likely be modelled off the existing rail infrastructure devolution that Wales has. The valley lines north of Cardiff Central are owned and managed by Transport for Wales directly in a similar manner to TFL’s ownership of the core Elizabeth Line section, but you wouldn’t know it as a passenger as trains travel between the two sections with no problems.

Dr Day · 3 Aug 2026

Akela said:
Had those lines not been devolved then they would have never been electrified.

Why is that? Has the change in ownership resulted in the electrification costs being cheaper (or benefits being higher)? Or different benchmarks (financial/non-financial) on what gets funded versus other calls for the same money, transport or non-transport? Or something else?

IIRC UK Government did make some contribution as did the EU.

Akela · 3 Aug 2026

Dr Day said:
Why is that? Has the change in ownership resulted in the electrification costs being cheaper (or benefits being higher)? Or different benchmarks (financial/non-financial) on what gets funded versus other calls for the same money, transport or non-transport? Or something else?

IIRC UK Government did make some contribution as did the EU.

Just the political will to get it done really - the Welsh government was willing to fund the project as soon as they ownership was transferred, with the money coming from a variety of sources including the block grant the WG gets through the Barnett Formula, and was willing to make some smart compromises such as discontinuous electrification which as far as I know Network Rail were not planning at the time. While the project certainly hasn't been without it's issues I think it's plain to see as a frequent user that for the most part it's been a success, with the 756's and 398's being a massive step up from the aging Pacers and Spinters that used to operate on these lines. Plus the stations themselves have had a fair amount of TLC given to them since the transfer with new bridges, lifts, shelters and better connections to local busses. Would the electrification project happened under UK gov/Network Rail ownership? Maybe? But I'm doubtful considering they didn't think there was a good enough business case to electrify the South Wales Mainline between Cardiff and Swansea.

I mean, the fact is for the Welsh government the South Wales mainline and the Cardiff Valley Lines are the most important and most frequently used lines in the country. For the UK government they are inevitably little more than branch lines of the Great Western. And really that's to be expected considering Network Rail manages lines that have orders of magnitude more passengers. Two different perspectives that lead to different outcomes.

This isn't really a Welsh phenomenon either - Manchester's Metrolink was created out of a series of ex-mainline lines and the improvements TfGM have made to those lines simply wouldn't have happened if they had remained with Network Rail - the Oldham Line would probably still be an unelectrified branch line running 150's at 30 min frequencies, like some neighbouring lines still are. For Greater Manchester the line was a vital connection between the north-eastern suburbs and the city centre, for the UK gov, it was again just yet another suburban branch line that managed to survive the Beeching Cuts but is not worthy of much if any investment.

Krokodil · 3 Aug 2026

Akela said:
But I'm doubtful considering they didn't think there was a good enough business case to electrify the South Wales Mainline between Cardiff and Swansea.

Did they think that? Or was it just abandoned by Grayling in response to GWML overruns?

Wales plan to take over 10% of UK rail network

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