Cardiff-Swansea - To wire or not to wire - from a different perspective

[PhilipW]

I know much has already been written about whether it is sensible or not to continue the wiring on to Swansea.

I thought I would examine the current timetable and see what the situation really is, as the DfT statement that only 1 tph goes to Swansea is slightly disingenuous as that is only true at off peak times.

Mon-Fri:
From Paddington - 9 trains to Cardiff and 21 trains to Swansea
To Paddington - 9 trains from Cardiff and 21 trains from Swansea

Sat:
From Paddington - 0 trains to Cardiff and 20 trains to Swansea
To Paddington - 0 trains from Cardiff and 15 trains from Swansea

Sun :
From Paddington - 1 train to Cardiff and 13 trains to Swansea
To Paddington - 0 trains from Cardiff and 14 trains from Swansea

Over the total week, this gives
From Paddington - 46 trains to Cardiff and 138 trains to Swansea
To Paddington - 45 trains from Cardiff and 134 trains from Swansea

This gives a grand total of 363 trains to/from Wales each week of which
91 start or terminate at Cardiff (25%)
272 start or terminate at Swansea (75%)

If I was presented with these figures, I know what decision I would come to.

 

[a good off]

If they wired up the VOG for diversions and the yards at Margam, ADJ and Llanwern then some of the freight traffic has the option of being electrically hauled too.

 

[tbtc]

I know much has already been written about whether it is sensible or not to continue the wiring on to Swansea.

I thought I would examine the current timetable and see what the situation really is, as the DfT statement that only 1 tph goes to Swansea is slightly disingenuous as that is only true at off peak times....

...This gives a grand total of 363 trains to/from Wales each week of which
91 start or terminate at Cardiff (25%)
272 start or terminate at Swansea (75%)

If I was presented with these figures, I know what decision I would come to.

Yes, but your figures ignore the services beyond Swansea which would need to be bi-mode (or hauled by a 57/67 etc).

 

[Gareth Marston]

Yes, but your figures ignore the services beyond Swansea which would need to be bi-mode (or hauled by a 57/67 etc).

Very few once a day Carmarthan to Paddington and a couple of summer Saturdays to Pembroke Dock.

 

[Greenback]

Very few once a day Carmarthan to Paddington and a couple of summer Saturdays to Pembroke Dock.

The weekday Carmarthen trains never seem very busy west of Swansea, although the morning train towards London provides very useful capacity for commuters to Swansea.

Whenever I have observed, or travelled on, the trains to Pembroke Dock, they do seem to have better loadings than the Carmarthen trains!

So, will these services continue? Is it worth it?

 

[anthony263]

The weekday Carmarthen trains never seem very busy west of Swansea, although the morning train towards London provides very useful capacity for commuters to Swansea.

Whenever I have observed, or travelled on, the trains to Pembroke Dock, they do seem to have better loadings than the Carmarthen trains!

So, will these services continue? Is it worth it?

A hst is certainly needed on the Pembroke dock line on summer saturdays .

The 10:00 from Pembroke dock is always packed same withe 08:45 London Paddington - Pembroke Dock service.

That said maybe 2 class 150's attached together could just about manage.

That daily Carmarthen - London Paddington train should run to/from Milford Haven or perhaps Fishguard Harbour and make a stop at Gowerton when the double track link is re-instated.

As for wiring to Swansea the off peak Swankline services could run run using emu's and with a better frequency of service should provide a boost in capacity and help cut down on some of the overcrowding on the other services between Swansea & Cardiff.

Not only that it releases at least 2 dmu's which could provide a boost in capacity elsewhere

 

[Greenback]

A hst is certainly needed on the Pembroke dock line on summer saturdays .

The 10:00 from Pembroke dock is always packed same withe 08:45 London Paddington - Pembroke Dock service.

That said maybe 2 class 150's attached together could just about manage.

That daily Carmarthen - London Paddington train should run to/from Milford Haven or perhaps Fishguard Harbour and make a stop at Gowerton when the double track link is re-instated

Yes, the Saturday trains are busy whenever I've seen them...I cna see them continuing, either with a hire din HST or as part of XC's weekend operations, originating from somewhere othe rthan London maybe.

I'm not so sure about the viability of the Carmarthen trains.

 

[anthony263]

Yes, the Saturday trains are busy whenever I've seen them...I cna see them continuing, either with a hire din HST or as part of XC's weekend operations, originating from somewhere othe rthan London maybe.

I'm not so sure about the viability of the Carmarthen trains.

The hst from Carmarthen is well used by commuters going to CSwansea Cardiff or Neewport for work meetings etc however the return working from London is just too late.

If they had enough stock I would cut back the 17:45 London - Carmarthen service to Swansea and instead run the 15:15 London - Cardiff service through to Swansea & Carmarthen which will also help reduce overcrowing on the 17:20 & 17:39 ATW services to Maesteg & Milford Haven.

 

[Greenback]

The hst from Carmarthen is well used by commuters going to CSwansea Cardiff or Neewport for work meetings etc however the return working from London is just too late.

If they had enough stock I would cut back the 17:45 London - Carmarthen service to Swansea and instead run the 15:15 London - Cardiff service through to Swansea & Carmarthen which will also help reduce overcrowing on the 17:20 & 17:39 ATW services to Maesteg & Milford Haven.

Isn't that the train that used to run through to Swansea, but was cut back a few years ago?

The current through train is too late, though I'll bet it has some very vociferous regulars who do travel through to Carmarthen! I've caught it a few times in the week, and the carriage rarely has more than five people in total.

I mentioned that the London bound train does provide useful capacity for commuters, but even so there is hardly ever more than a handful of people in coach A, where I/we normally sit.

 

[anthony263]

I remebrer a year or 2 aao when there was talk of cutting back the Carmarthen - London services to all start from Swansea or Cardiff and you had the local MP's in Carmarthen etc playing hell.

I dont know if the service between Swansea & Carmarthen are timed properly so that there is a 30 minutly service that people just can't change trains at Swansea.

 

[Greenback]

I remebrer a year or 2 aao when there was talk of cutting back the Carmarthen - London services to all start from Swansea or Cardiff and you had the local MP's in Carmarthen etc playing hell.

I dont know if the service between Swansea & Carmarthen are timed properly so that there is a 30 minutly service that people just can't change trains at Swansea.

Local MP's are probably some of the loudest voices proclaiming the benefits of through trains to London. I wonder why that might be?

The spacings of the trains have got better over the last few years. The biggest drawback is that the timetbale isn;t consistently half hourly due tot he bi hourly Pembroke Dock trains.

If there was a consistent half hourly service maybe there would be less of a need for a through train at all, except perhaps for the politicians.

Back ont he main topic, there does seem to be a growing consensus that the DfT reasoning for not wiring to Swansea was flawed.

 

[anthony263]

Local MP's are probably some of the loudest voices proclaiming the benefits of through trains to London. I wonder why that might be?

The spacings of the trains have got better over the last few years. The biggest drawback is that the timetbale isn;t consistently half hourly due tot he bi hourly Pembroke Dock trains.

If there was a consistent half hourly service maybe there would be less of a need for a through train at all, except perhaps for the politicians.

Back ont he main topic, there does seem to be a growing consensus that the DfT reasoning for not wiring to Swansea was flawed.

Yes aparantly they forgot about the Swansea - Cardiff Swanline services.

Although if you read on WNXX if you wire to Swansea it would ruin the case for the Bi-mode IEP which looks like its dead in the water anyway.

This especially if you take into the account of the work which has to be done to clear 26m carriages on the route to Swansea especially some Bridges between Cardiff & Port Talbot and those flying arches near Llansamlet (Something will have to be done with them in order to get the wires through that section), It would most likely be cheaper to wire to Swansea and order trains with the normal 23m carriages.

Using emu's on the Swanline services would cut the journey time on those services from 1 hour 5minutes to under 1 hour so there would be time for the trains to make an additional stop say at Brackla and still do the Swansea - Cardiff journey time in 1 hour.

I not too fussed on the idea of a station at St Fagans though which would more than likely be served by Maesteg - Cardiff services if the route is electrified.

 

[tbtc]

Very few once a day Carmarthan to Paddington and a couple of summer Saturdays to Pembroke Dock.

...but if you wired to Swansea you'd have to decide whether to chop these or not.

You could run three/hour from Cardiff to Swansea (terminating there) fairly easily (with "Stand Alone" DMUs from Swansea to West Wales), which would be sufficient to justify electrification no bother. However you'd need to pay the price of chopping some longer distance links (e.g. Seansea no longer having a link to Manchester, Cardiff no longer having a link to West Wales).

But if you want electrification then you have to accept that some services will need to be revised to suit the wires.

 

[HSTEd]

Or we could just go mad and wire Pembroke Dock as well.

 

[Greenback]

I will not rest until the electrification of the Heart of Wales is announced, along with Whitby of course!

 

[Gareth Marston]

I will not rest until the electrification of the Heart of Wales is announced, along with Whitby of course!

Sensible imminently sensible. After all we all know the HoW delivers a pot of gold to a Mountain Troll that lives on Sugar Loaf direct from the Treasury against the treasury's will. The route should be made more efficient. Or have I misinterpreted some peoples stance on rural railways?

 

[tbtc]

According to a programme I watched on Welsh railways a few years ago there's a man called Mr Dinwiddy who has plenty of gold that he keeps underground - maybe he could use some of that to invest in HoW electrification?

 

[Gareth Marston]

...but if you wired to Swansea you'd have to decide whether to chop these or not.

You could run three/hour from Cardiff to Swansea (terminating there) fairly easily (with "Stand Alone" DMUs from Swansea to West Wales), which would be sufficient to justify electrification no bother. However you'd need to pay the price of chopping some longer distance links (e.g. Seansea no longer having a link to Manchester, Cardiff no longer having a link to West Wales).

But if you want electrification then you have to accept that some services will need to be revised to suit the wires.

WE have a policy regarding if/when the wires come to Shrewsbury to keep some services through to Birmingham maybe only 2 a day in Mid week and have 3/4 on Fri/Sat/Sun.

Using the Swansea District line for half dozen trains a day direct to Cardiff may be a compromise.

 

[ainsworth74]

I will not rest until the electrification of the Heart of Wales is announced, along with Whitby of course!

Pah mere branch lines! We need wires to Thurso and Wick for the good of the nation and I will not stand idly by whilst money is wasted on Whitby!

 

[Greenback]

Taking my tongue out of my cheek again, if the wires reach Swansea would it really have to affect the Manchester - West Wales trains?

 

[anthony263]

Taking my tongue out of my cheek again, if the wires reach Swansea would it really have to affect the Manchester - West Wales trains?

I cant see why it should.

 

[Greenback]

Good, I thought it was just me!

 

[HSTEd]

Well if we were to acquire some Cl22x trains from somewhere, this problem would go away..... can we have wires to Nottingham, Corby and Derby now?

 

[tbtc]

Taking my tongue out of my cheek again, if the wires reach Swansea would it really have to affect the Manchester - West Wales trains?

The rule of thumb commonly given is that a line needs a half hourly service to justify conversion from DMU to EMU (not saying this is Government policy, just that it appears to be "received wisdom").

So, Swansea - Cardiff is currently around two and a half trains an hour (hourly Paddington - Swansea, hourly Manchester - West Wales, bi-hourly Swanline).

If you chopped the Manchester - West Wales service into...

• Manchester - Cardiff DMU (using mainly three coach 175s, due to its shorter length)
• Cardiff - Swansea EMU (maybe even Bristol - Cardiff - Swansea?)
• Swansea - West Wales DMU

...then you'd have a better case for electrification, as all Cardiff - Swansea passenger services would be converted to EMU.

I guess it depends on whether it will be electrified on economic grounds (best business case) or political grounds (the "emotional" case for keeping Swansea's infrastructure on a par with Cardiff's)...

 

[Greenback]

The rule of thumb commonly given is that a line needs a half hourly service to justify conversion from DMU to EMU (not saying this is Government policy, just that it appears to be "received wisdom").

So, Swansea - Cardiff is currently around two and a half trains an hour (hourly Paddington - Swansea, hourly Manchester - West Wales, bi-hourly Swanline).

If you chopped the Manchester - West Wales service into...

• Manchester - Cardiff DMU (using mainly three coach 175s, due to its shorter length)
• Cardiff - Swansea EMU (maybe even Bristol - Cardiff - Swansea?)
• Swansea - West Wales DMU

...then you'd have a better case for electrification, as all Cardiff - Swansea passenger services would be converted to EMU.

I guess it depends on whether it will be electrified on economic grounds (best business case) or political grounds (the "emotional" case for keeping Swansea's infrastructure on a par with Cardiff's)...

I don't see why it needs to be chopped at all. There are half hourly services to and from London at peak times anyway, and there is no reason why another hourly service can't run, whether it be a Swanline type or an EMU to Bristol, in addition to diesels under the wires serving West Wales. As has been mentioned, some of these could run via the non electrified Swansea District Line.

 

[tbtc]

I don't see why it needs to be chopped at all. There are half hourly services to and from London at peak times anyway, and there is no reason why another hourly service can't run, whether it be a Swanline type or an EMU to Bristol, in addition to diesels under the wires serving West Wales. As has been mentioned, some of these could run via the non electrified Swansea District Line.

You could run additional EMUs, aye, but if you want to get a better business case then you need to maximise the proportion of EMUs under the wires (/ minimise the number of DMUS).

All depends if the Swansea decision is going to be taken on economic grounds or political ones I guess.

 

[HSTEd]

Which way do Manchester-West Wales services go after Cardiff? The Heart Of Wales line?

 

[Greenback]

You could run additional EMUs, aye, but if you want to get a better business case then you need to maximise the proportion of EMUs under the wires (/ minimise the number of DMUS).

All depends if the Swansea decision is going to be taken on economic grounds or political ones I guess.

If the business case doesn't stack up with 2 electric trains pr hour, then so be it. I don;t think it would be worth spliting the current through trains, although it might be advantageous if a delay at Stockport doesn;t affect my train home as it starts from Swansea! But that's me being selfish, quite a lot of people travel through from Cardiff to West Wales, and they might be put off rail by having to change trains with their luggage, or miss a connection. Rail travel would be even less competitive with road travel than it is now.

As there is such a lot of 'diesels under the wires' across the electrified network, why must South Wales be different?

Which way do Manchester-West Wales services go after Cardiff? The Heart Of Wales line?

No, the Heart of Wales branches off at Llanelli's Llandeilo Junction and heads through Mid Wales to Craven Arms. The 'main' line continues along the coast to Carmarthen, Milford Haven, Pembroke Dock and Fishguard Harbour.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Which way do Manchester-West Wales services go after Cardiff? The Heart Of Wales line?

Up the Marches after Newport via Abergavenny and Hereford- its a very busy route. Basically theirs an hourly Carmarthen to Manchester service with Milford Haven served every 2 hours and some extensions to Fishguard and Tenby. Its West Wales - Cardiff combined with Manchester- Cardiff as Cardiff station is not really set up for train terminating.

 

[Greenback]

Up the Marches after Newport via Abergavenny and Hereford- its a very busy route. Basically theirs an hourly Carmarthen to Manchester service with Milford Haven served every 2 hours and some extensions to Fishguard and Tenby. Its West Wales - Cardiff combined with Manchester- Cardiff as Cardiff station is not really set up for train terminating.

I thought HSTEd was asking about the other direction!