Will Winter be as bad as last year?

[table38]

I don't want to start another thread but do you think Global Warming has stopped? You never hear it on the News anymore!

"Global Warming" was hastily re-branded as "Climate Change" when real life failed to live up to the experts computer model predictions.

 

[SS4]

"Global Warming" was hastily re-branded as "Climate Change" when real life failed to live up to the experts computer model predictions.

Alternatively, the evidence was different to the predicted outcome so the model was changed - a core value of the scientific principle. If science didn't do this it would be a religion


Remember the cold weather at the beginning and the end of 2010? Well it turns out 2010 was the warmest year since 1880.

 

[table38]

2010 was the warmest year since 1880.[/url]

Depends who you ask. Maybe only the same as 2005

Certainly not on track to be 6 degrees warmer by the end of the century as was originally predicted.

 

[SS4]

Certainly not on track to be 6 degrees warmer by the end of the century as was originally predicted.

Are scientists still saying that in the face of new/updated evidence? I don't know what you have against the updating of models.

 

[table38]

I don't know what you have against the updating of models.

It seems an odd thing to infer from what I've said, but I do notice how some people go into "attack" mode if anyone dares question the self-appointed climate experts.

It just demonstrates to me how inaccurate their predictions have been, and how desperately they are back-pedaling

 

[richw]

Global warming was a scare tactic, look historically the planet has gone through many cycles of warmth and cold....ice ages etc..... To try and stop us using non renewable sources!

Sent from my HTC Sensation Z710e using Tapatalk

 

[newbie babs]

Autumn 2011

The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter. Although some places further South may see some spells of settled weather at times, the general theme for autumn as a whole looks largely wet and very windy with dominant grey skies. It will be generally unsettled and turn progressively colder with an early start to winter, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.

Winter 2011-12 Update

As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.
Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

If that comes from Piers Corbyn ( who forecasts weather based on solar activity ) then I'd hazard that it'll be somewhat more accurate than the Met Office's efforts...

 

[SS4]

Autumn 2011

The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter. Although some places further South may see some spells of settled weather at times, the general theme for autumn as a whole looks largely wet and very windy with dominant grey skies.

It will be generally unsettled and turn progressively colder with an early start to winter especially more so in the regions of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.

You don't need to be a meteorologist to know that it gets colder as we head into winter, that the North is colder than the South and grey skies and rain increase in autumn :roll:
Unless this was posted in June or July it's so vague as to be useless.

...with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.

Surely anybody could come up with this stuff.

If that comes from Piers Corbyn ( who forecasts weather based on solar activity ) then I'd hazard that it'll be somewhat more accurate than the Met Office's efforts...

I don't doubt it. If I consistently said April is warmer than January I'd be accurate too.

 

[Butts]

One thing for certain if you get 1mm snow in London it makes National News headlines.....

As for the rest of us we carry on as normal

 

[Peter Mugridge]

That's more true than you think; a few years ago Kent County Council called out the Army to help with a snowfall that really was only about 5mm...:roll:

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

One thing for certain if you get 1mm snow in London it makes National News headlines.....

As for the rest of us we carry on as normal

I always seem to really get annoyed when the national weather presenters smugly say....and here in the South-East.......and make references to the north which in their minds covers anywhere north of Stoke on Trent, up to Cape Wrath.

 

[passmore]

I always seem to really get annoyed when the national weather presenters smugly say....and here in the South-East.......and make references to the north which in their minds covers anywhere north of Stoke on Trent, up to Cape Wrath.

No, The North in their book refers to junction 21A of the M25..

 

[thefab444]

I always seem to really get annoyed when the national weather presenters smugly say....and here in the South-East.......and make references to the north which in their minds covers anywhere north of Stoke on Trent, up to Cape Wrath.

Funnily enough, down here we feel the opposite. As the weather is rarely interesting here we are usually covered by a brief mention of conditions "in the South and East". Bear in mind also that on the BBC TV weather map Scotland was increased in size so it is no longer in proportion to the rest of the UK.

Unless you're watching ITV, in which case I'm not suprised it's poor.

 

[SS4]

Funnily enough, down here we feel the opposite. As the weather is rarely interesting here we are usually covered by a brief mention of conditions "in the South and East". Bear in mind also that on the BBC TV weather map Scotland was increased in size so it is no longer in proportion to the rest of the UK.

Unless you're watching ITV, in which case I'm not suprised it's poor.

Ever since they moved round the country it's as though there is a big Midlands shaped hole. More than once I've had to find Bristol and move up.

Nowadays I use accuweather (thankfully rain is forecast for the Birmingham area on Fri, Sat and Sun)

 

[Ploughman]

Looks really good! How long did it take you to 'build', is that the right word, it?

The plough itself is about 102 years old and was retired in 1973.
However after 2 previous owners I started work on it in 2006.
The repair work or rebuilding was quite extensive with a new hard wood underframe being the biggest task.
It went to Kirkby Stephen for the Stainmore 150th as it worked over the line frequently especially in the 1950s.
Due back at the NYMR sometime soon.

 

[Nonsense]

I have a feeling that we're in for a few white winters, like those that were the norm not 20 years ago. The ability to "work" from home though is critical if we have a repeat of the last two winters. Consider the options:

• Heavy snow, in the dark, on the Motorway, or,
• Frozen points, replacement bus, missed connections, cancellations and a freezing walk to/from the station, on impacted snow/ice, while snowing or
• Roaring fire, armchair, wireless laptop, slippers, fresh coffee

Its a tough decision...

I'm not sure a trend to colder winters will last long though with the reality of climate change.

In the mid 90s I chose the subject of increasing global temperatures on the north Atlantic drift for a 20 minute talk. Its a long held assumption that global increase in temperatures will lead to cooler temperatures in the UK.

 

[Butts]

Funnily enough, down here we feel the opposite. As the weather is rarely interesting here we are usually covered by a brief mention of conditions "in the South and East". Bear in mind also that on the BBC TV weather map Scotland was increased in size so it is no longer in proportion to the rest of the UK.

Unless you're watching ITV, in which case I'm not suprised it's poor.

Not increased enough to feature The Shetland Islands and often Orkney missing as well.

Hope the IOW is present your end

 

[thefab444]

The population of both of those island areas combined is 100,000 less than the Isle of Wight (a much smaller area).

 

[Butts]

The population of both of those island areas combined is 100,000 less than the Isle of Wight (a much smaller area).

Yes but I bet Shetland is a lot wealthier with all that Oil

 

[Stewart]

We are probably going to have a cold winter. We have seen 4 cold winters on the bounce due to the quiet sun. The Sun has not changed.

I don't know howmany on this forum are those deluded by Al Gore but if you need to know how seriously the climate change liars have hit then just Google "Climategate".

They have conspired to trash peer review and pretty much all of science.

 

[ushawk]

I do love the Snowy weather, means we can be typical British by moaning about the weather.

Although, seeing as i commute most days from Eastbourne to London, i dont want the snow in that case, especially if the BML is closed and i get stuck !

 

[SS4]

We are probably going to have a cold winter. We have seen 4 cold winters on the bounce due to the quiet sun. The Sun has not changed.

I don't know howmany on this forum are those deluded by Al Gore but if you need to know how seriously the climate change liars have hit then just Google "Climategate".

They have conspired to trash peer review and pretty much all of science.

You want this thread mate.

 

[newbie babs]

Nonsense

I am lucky with the job I have now, if I can`t get to work I can work from home.

I love the snow, but I hate how it turns a horrible slush now a days not like when I was a teenager.

 

[SS4]

Nonsense

I am lucky with the job I have now, if I can`t get to work I can work from home.

I love the snow, but I hate how it turns a horrible slush now a days not like when I was a teenager.

I can't comment on when you were a teenager but I too hate it when it goes all slushy, that and having to go out in a not particularly sturdy pair of shoes

 

[Class172]

We are probably going to have a cold winter. We have seen 4 cold winters on the bounce due to the quiet sun. The Sun has not changed.

The sun has been acting very strangely over the past few years - hopefully when it comes back to activity it won't unleash a torrent or solar flares or even (though I hope not) one of those 1-in-a-100-years Coronal Mass Ejections. hock:

I can't comment on when you were a teenager but I too hate it when it goes all slushy, that and having to go out in a not particularly sturdy pair of shoes

I too hate slush, it then gets even worse when it picks up dirt and turns brown.

 

[Stewart]

You want this thread mate.

The global warming con was exposed by Climategate, so it's hardly a conspiracy theory.

 

[90019]

The global warming con was exposed by Climategate, so it's hardly a conspiracy theory.

Global warming and climate change are two different things.
Climate change is an ongoing natural process that has been occuring throughout the history of the Earth. Whether humans are actually having an effect or not, there's not enough evidence to prove it either way yet.

 

[passmore]

I have always believed in climate change and processes such as the Greenhouse Effect, the problem is attributing the causes of climate change to man. There really just isn't enough credible evidence either way. It also is one of these things that polarises people. Those that are for it are blinded by convincing counter arguments against it and choose to accept rather than question MMGW. Those that are against it are blinded by credible counter-arguments for MMGW and choose to remain sceptical and disbelieving about any paper or theory supporting it. I'm afraid I'm in the latter camp.
One of my chief gripes which gets to me whenever a debate ensues about MMGW is people who come along and say 'you are not qualified to debate MMGW either way'. Exactly what qualifications do we need to debate what is still, by and large, a theory? Scientific qualifications help up to a point, but there's a fine line between the black and white science and the grey area of common sense, a line which is regularly ignored by these self-confessed know-it-alls who forget that you cannot debate something such as MMGW without one form of logic supporting the other. I'm not a scientist, I failed my chemistry O-level and chose not to pursue a career in the sciences, but I can offer an opinion about MMGW purely on the basis of common sense, provided I don't start inventing my argument with phoney scientific terms or technobabble. Why can't these 'oh-you're-not-qualified-to-debate-MMGW' people accept that you're never going to always attract scientific opinion to a debate such as MMGW?

 

[SS4]

The global warming con was exposed by Climategate, so it's hardly a conspiracy theory.

One count of poor communication does not a whole theory debunk.
The issue with climate change is that politicians have hijacked it for their own ends.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I have always believed in climate change and processes such as the Greenhouse Effect, the problem is attributing the causes of climate change to man.

Is CO2 a greenhouse gas? Is man releasing a lot of CO2 into the air?

I find a lot of climate change deniers think that Britain = The World. If we have a cold winter here in Britain then climate change is obviously a hoax - forget the heatwave in the Midwest and that the opening of the Northwest passage.