If Grand Central's new Brighton service is approved Cambridge becomes the only station with 6m+ passengers per year without a service to "The North"

[dk1]

I was just going to use exactly the same example; 1525 last Tuesday!

How coincidental is that? My flight was just late enough for me to miss the 14:46 GA so this was the best option to connect into the 17:32 at Norwich for Brundall Gardens. In the end the earlier operational incident caused the EMR connection at Ely to miss it anyway

 

[Magdalia]

If you had two Norwich to Cambridge; and two Peterborough to Cambridge, and then did the existing one Norwich to Peterborough via the Ely west curve (not stopping at Ely) it would save the two paths into Ely. Replacing the Ely stop with a March stop on the Norwich to Peterborough would assist connectivity. I also agree that ideally all these services would be 5-cars rather than 2-4 cars.

Using what paths? There’s a major capacity constraint across the fens

Would an additional platform at Stansted (p4 - a side, out of the shed and in the elements) - be at all useful with the single bore tunnel? Not sure but could be worth considering.

It isn't practical because of the design of the station at Stansted, which is mainly underground.

One of the reasons why I'm so keen to get battery bimodes on all of the Stansted services is that diesel trains can only use the short platform 2, which is out in the open. Everything being electric would remove this constraint. Counter-intuitively, I'd then get rid of platform 2 and just have 2 very long platforms each able to take a class 745 and a battery bimode. What are now the Birmingham trains would need to have times adjusted so that they matched how sharing a platform with Stansted Express already works for the Norwich trains.

It’s a common misconception that Ely itself is the only problem. Ely North Junction is a big part of it, but the level crossings all the way from Peterboro’ to Cambridge / Stansted and to a lesser extent Ely - Norwich are another major issue in running significantly more trains anywhere in this area.

I agree that this is a very common misconception! It is why I think that marginal changes to increase capacity where it is most needed, without running significantly more trains, is the way forward. Greater Anglia's additional peak time trains introduced in May are an example of how this can be done.

As we are doing "last week" anecdotes, I broke my record for longest wait at Granhams Road level crossing in Shelford one day last week, 14 minutes and 4 trains. By that time the traffic on the village side was backed up all the way to the main road.

 

[fishwomp]

Given the services from Cambridge into Stansted are quite long distance, any Cambridge to Stansted traveller is going to play careful with the reliability of catching a train. That'll play into how many services are timetabled too. Couldn't they do better with a shuttle from Cambridge and break the GA/XC services there? You couldn't do a cross-platform change there - but this is a 2-car train, scarcely a massive flow, and Cambridge North would be a daft place to break it.

https://railalefan.co.uk/labs/flowstats/SSD/ suggests 600 pax a day from Cambridge, 30 from Brum, 26 from Leicester.

If they're up for rebuilding Cambridge South, they could put a dedicated bay platform there and break it there... (I'll get my coat).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2026 ==

I also just stumbled on some nice work https://iianderson.medium.com/i-mapped-every-delay-on-the-british-rail-network-de6dfc5793c3 - shows 5 mins as average XC lateness on that CBG - SSD section.

I mapped every delay on the British rail network​

Mapping delays on the British railway network: two failures and the one that worked
​

Also just added to my own site: https://koyli.github.io/rail-speed/ - hovering over the fastest train from SSD to BHM (say) will now show route or crow-flies speed between each station pair. The CBG/SSD to BHM flow is ridiculously circuitous - not a bad average route miles speed, but Stansted to Brum is 100 crow-flies miles, or 160 route miles.. no wonder the car will beat that, if you're prepared to pay for the parking or the taxi.

 

[Magdalia]

Given the services from Cambridge into Stansted are quite long distance, any Cambridge to Stansted traveller is going to play careful with the reliability of catching a train. That'll play into how many services are timetabled too. Couldn't they do better with a shuttle from Cambridge and break the GA/XC services there?

No. Cambridge is by far the biggest one way flow via the Stansted North Curve, at 215k one way journeys in 2024/25. But second and third are Peterborough at 53k and Norwich at 47k. Fourth and fifth are Ely at 23k and Cambridge North at 20k. Birmingham and Leicester flows are about the same size as Audley End and March!

Ideally the Norwich service would run through to/from Stansted all day, but it is currently split at Cambridge in the peaks because of difficulty joining up the paths either side of Cambridge.

The other Stansted North Curve service needs to continue to run at least as far as Peterborough, and that's even more so now that Cambridge South is open. When trains run late from Birmingham, they often terminate at Cambridge, but without replacement as XC don't have any spare rolling stock at Cambridge. If everything was run by Greater Anglia then Cambridge-Stansted shuttles to replace late running inbound services becomes more feasible.

The CBG/SSD to BHM flow is ridiculously circuitous - not a bad average route miles speed, but Stansted to Brum is 100 crow-flies miles, or 160 route miles.

When EWR opens the shortest rail routes will be via Bletchley for Birmingham and Bedford for Leicester. But that's still further than the A14 via Huntingdon and Kettering.

 

[Snow1964]

It’s a common misconception that Ely itself is the only problem. Ely North Junction is a big part of it, but the level crossings all the way from Peterboro’ to Cambridge / Stansted and to a lesser extent Ely - Norwich are another major issue in running significantly more trains anywhere in this area.

Surely that's more a function of the level crossing control type and signalling choice, rather than existence of multiple level crossings.

Barnes-Richmond has multiple level crossings (and flat junction at Barnes) and regularly has 8-11 trains per hour each direction. Ely-Peterborough has nowhere near those frequencies. Which suggests it is funding choice, rather than not possible

 

[zwk500]

Apologies for catching up to this rather late, but:

As far as the argument that good rail services are necessary for expansion Northampton rather gives the lie to that. The population in 2011 was 212,000 (2011 census) so its population has increased by 17 1/2 % over those ten years. That's a bigger increase than Milton Keynes achieved over the same period with a much better train service. Possibly road access is more important - Northampton has dual carriageway roads to the West (A43) and mostly dual carriageway to the East (A45/A14). Perhaps that's a more important factor in growth?

The important factor in the relative growth of Northampton compared to Milton Keynes will have been the relative price of housing. And part of the reason for the lower price of housing will have been the relatively poorer rail connections.
Not that Northampton's rail connections are bad - it's a half-hourly frequency all-day taking 1hr to both Euston and Birmingham New Street, with additional faster trains to/from London at Peak times. Change at Rugby for the Trent Valley, MK for Intercity. First trains before 0700, last trains back from Birmingham after 2300, London after 0100.

Hopefully Northampton will get more destinations - it deserves them.

On what basis does Northampton 'deserve' more destinations? The market for travel to anywhere not already served on the rail network is very small outside of special events (mainly F1). All it needs is decent connections in to the LNR Trent Valley and Avanti Manchester at Rugby. My experience is that even travel to Birmingham is relatively low demand - the trains are orders of magnitude busier between Rugby and Birmingham than Northampton and Rugby.

 

[William3000]

Apologies for catching up to this rather late, but:

The important factor in the relative growth of Northampton compared to Milton Keynes will have been the relative price of housing. And part of the reason for the lower price of housing will have been the relatively poorer rail connections.
Not that Northampton's rail connections are bad - it's a half-hourly frequency all-day taking 1hr to both Euston and Birmingham New Street, with additional faster trains to/from London at Peak times. Change at Rugby for the Trent Valley, MK for Intercity. First trains before 0700, last trains back from Birmingham after 2300, London after 0100.

On what basis does Northampton 'deserve' more destinations? The market for travel to anywhere not already served on the rail network is very small outside of special events (mainly F1). All it needs is decent connections in to the LNR Trent Valley and Avanti Manchester at Rugby. My experience is that even travel to Birmingham is relatively low demand - the trains are orders of magnitude busier between Rugby and Birmingham than Northampton and Rugby.

Well Northampton is a large town of 220,000 people. It doesn’t have direct rail connections to nearby Leicester, Bedford, etc. it’s very poorly served for eastward travel.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Oct 2026 ==

I think you are being very over optimistic here. Usage will be higher than the Network Rail estimate, but they won't be out by such a large amount.

I look at demand from the Biomedical Campus, and it isn't growing a lot in the next 5 years. Current projects are:

• AstraZeneca (AZ) are nearing completion on the Rosalind Franklin building, but this is mainly for existing staff being relocated from offices near the main station. AZ have another building in planning but no commitment to build it yet.
• Discovery Drive will be built out by 2031 but mainly for GSK with employees relocating from Stevenage, hopefully some of these will use the train.
• The new Children's Hospital and Cancer Hospital do not have approved funding yet, the chances of either of these being completed by 2030/31 are diminishing.

Big numbers at Cambridge South are going to be at least partly people switching from the main station, not new traffic. I actually expect a dip in usage at the old station because of this (by way of comparison, I shall be looking out for how much Chelmsford falls in 2025/26 as a result of the opening of Beaulieu Park). Also, the only big development near the old station likely to complete before 2031 is Botanic Place.

At Cambridge North proposals to expand at the Business Park and the Science Park are still in early stages of consultation, much growth there before 2031 is unlikely.

In addition to employment, employees need houses to live in. Coming up between now and 2031 only Waterbeach is likely to deliver big numbers for the railway. Northstowe might generate some traffic between North and South, but that should be netted out for a Cambridge total.

I also look at supply. From the south side there is plenty of capacity, but it is difficult to exploit. From the north side, there is plenty of demand but capacity is constrained. Rail travel from/to the north can't expand that much without new capacity, and there isn't going to be much of that before 2031.






In the short/medium term, increasing capacity on the March/Peterborough and Newmarket/Bury St Edmunds services should be the priority. They are the routes that have capacity constraints for inbound commuting. What's needed is a timetable for Ely-Peterborough that prioritises Cambridge, and redoubling Cambridge-Newmarket, preferably with electrification and through trains to/from London. That would also help to accelerate the opening of Cambridge East.


Brighton is the most relevant here, because it illustrates the impact of geography. In the case of Brighton that's the South Downs and the sea. Brighton's high usage comes almost entirely from its one route through the South Downs to/from London (including Gatwick), and local traffic on the East and West Coastways. For Cambridge, the Fens are a geographical barrier too: there is only one rail route across the Fens and its capacity is limited.




What will prompt me to reassess my position is delivery of East West Rail, especially if there is a Bletchley North Curve too.

I’m not sure there will be a dip. Cambridge to Cambridge South is the 3rd biggest flow after Ely to Cambridge South and London stations to Cambridge South. Cambridge North is 4th, and Stansted Airport is 5th. This suggest many are using the train for intra-city travel - not surprising given the slow buses and traffic congestion.

 

[zwk500]

Well Northampton is a large town of 220,000 people. It doesn’t have direct rail connections to nearby Leicester, Bedford, etc. it’s very poorly served for eastward travel.

And how many in Northampton actually want to go to Leicester (when Saints aren't playing Tigers) or Bedford? Have a look at the quality of the respective road links for a clue.

My sense as a resident is that Kettering, Wellingborough, Rushden, and Towcester are all well ahead of Leicester or Bedford for travel demand to/from Northampton.

 

[A S Leib]

Have a look at the quality of the respective road links for a clue.

Granted, Northampton to Leicester doesn't have anything approaching mountains on the way, but I doubt demand between Manchester and Sheffield is as low as one may gather from looking at the roads there.

 

[bramling]

And how many in Northampton actually want to go to Leicester (when Saints aren't playing Tigers) or Bedford? Have a look at the quality of the respective road links for a clue.

My sense as a resident is that Kettering, Wellingborough, Rushden, and Towcester are all well ahead of Leicester or Bedford for travel demand to/from Northampton.

And Northampton has no rail links to any of those places either.

The reason why it has a perceived poor rail service is because the London service has tended to be quite poor - lots of stops, short trains, and especially during the London Midland franchise capacity choked by longer-distance passengers on cheap advance tickets that should really have been using the West Coast franchise.

Really, one can add Northampton to the list of new-town-type places that were developed in such a way that they were reliant on car and bus. It is only as they and their local road networks have become more congested over time that rail connectivity has become more of an issue. Until the last 10-15 years if you wanted to get from Northampton to Bedford you would just drive. Hence why the rail service is heavily London and Birmingham focussed.

I don’t really see much comparison with Cambridge, which will have a much more diverse set of travel patterns.

 

[zwk500]

And Northampton has no rail links to any of those places either.

It doesn't, but there are other reasons for that. The point I was making is that if you were to prioritise new rail destinations, you'd do so to the nearer towns than Leicester.

The reason why it has a perceived poor rail service is because the London service has tended to be quite poor - lots of stops, short trains,

The normal London service is 8 or 12 coaches (so hardly short) with 4 or 5 stops Watford Junction being somewhat inconsistent (hardly lots), and has been since I first moved to the area nearly 10 years ago (although I have lived elsewhere in between).

and especially during the London Midland franchise capacity choked by longer-distance passengers on cheap advance tickets that should really have been using the West Coast franchise.

North of MKC it hasn't had this in the time I've known it. Although by that time the Trent Valley stopper was running so that probably took quite a lot of this usage away by intercepting passengers at Rugby.

Really, one can add Northampton to the list of new-town-type places that were developed in such a way that they were reliant on car and bus. It is only as they and their local road networks have become more congested over time that rail connectivity has become more of an issue. Until the last 10-15 years if you wanted to get from Northampton to Bedford you would just drive. Hence why the rail service is heavily London and Birmingham focussed.

You absolutely can add Northampton to the list of car-dependent commuter towns. But the flow to Bedford is never going to be particularly heavy because there's very little reason to go there from Northampton.

I don’t really see much comparison with Cambridge, which will have a much more diverse set of travel patterns.

Agree.

 

[35B]

And how many in Northampton actually want to go to Leicester (when Saints aren't playing Tigers) or Bedford? Have a look at the quality of the respective road links for a clue.

My sense as a resident is that Kettering, Wellingborough, Rushden, and Towcester are all well ahead of Leicester or Bedford for travel demand to/from Northampton.

I'm confused. Having driven that way the odd once or twice, I'd have thought the M1 provided a pretty good link between Northampton and Leicester.

But that highlights an important point about journey options - many practical options are not the result of planned service links, but opportunity due to accidents of history. So Northampton/Leicester was probably not a planned for consequence of the M1 design, but a side effect. Just as, today, commuting to London from Grantham is a useful side effect of how the ECML was built through Grantham and given a junction station.

 

[Palmerston]

It doesn't, but there are other reasons for that. The point I was making is that if you were to prioritise new rail destinations, you'd do so to the nearer towns than Leicester.

This is why I think it could make sense to reopen the link to Market Harborough (which does then give access to Kettering and Wellingborough) and add stations at eg Rushden or Desborough, with Leicester at the end of the line. But that's a bit off topic.

 

[Bald Rick]

Surely that's more a function of the level crossing control type and signalling choice, rather than existence of multiple level crossings.

Barnes-Richmond has multiple level crossings (and flat junction at Barnes) and regularly has 8-11 trains per hour each direction. Ely-Peterborough has nowhere near those frequencies. Which suggests it is funding choice, rather than not possible

I don’t think I said it was not possible, apologies if I did. It is definitely a funding choice, but a flippin’ big one, much more than the cost of remodellign the junction.

MCB-OD crossings are not cheap. And there is also the downtime issue, which rears it’s head locally at just about every AHB that is upgraded. That’s why the Queen Adelaide crossings were proposed for full closure and a bridge.

Nevertheless, level crossing risk is a much, much more complex science than number of trains per hour.

There is also a headway issue from Ely to Peterboro’ (Whittlesea ‘box being particularly entertaining with Absolute block both ways), and finally of course even if you uncork the route from Haughley - Peterborough, the container trains want to go beyond Peterborough…

 

[Magdalia]

I’m not sure there will be a dip. Cambridge to Cambridge South is the 3rd biggest flow after Ely to Cambridge South and London stations to Cambridge South. Cambridge North is 4th, and Stansted Airport is 5th. This suggest many are using the train for intra-city travel - not surprising given the slow buses and traffic congestion.

The intra-Cambridge travel is the main reason why I expect the Network Rail projected usage at Cambridge South to be an under-estimate.

But, to begin with, a lot of the London, Ely and Stansted entries and exits at Cambridge South will be transfers from Cambridge, not new travel.

In the context of this discussion, more intra-Cambridge journeys has no consequence for longer distance travel.

And I do have concerns about short faring and doughnutting. One that I shall be looking at very carefully is whether there is a fall for Cambridge-Shelford.

Surely that's more a function of the level crossing control type and signalling choice, rather than existence of multiple level crossings.

I don’t think I said it was not possible, apologies if I did. It is definitely a funding choice, but a flippin’ big one, much more than the cost of remodellign the junction.

By way of example, Kings Dyke got a bridge that opened in 2022. It cost £32m, and there has been a lot of inflation in construction costs since. And building bridges in the Fens isn't easy, see here from 2024:

Whittlesey to Peterborough bridge cracks show within two years

One lane has been temporarily closed using two-way traffic lights as a precaution.

www.bbc.co.uk

A £32m road bridge built just two years ago has been partially closed following the appearance of cracks.

The King's Dyke bridge - connecting Peterborough and Whittlesey - was created to overcome delays caused by a level crossing.

finally of course even if you uncork the route from Haughley - Peterborough, the container trains want to go beyond Peterborough…

I'm much more concerned about commuters getting in and out of Cambridge for work than I am about boxes of imported goods from the Far East getting from Felixstowe to the Midlands.

Granted, Northampton to Leicester doesn't have anything approaching mountains on the way

It does have the watershed between the Nene and Welland valleys, which is more than 150m/500ft above sea level, with tunnels at Kelmarsh on the now closed railway. For Victorian railway engineers it was a significant obstacle.

And the main reason that the original London-Birmingham railway avoided Northampton was to avoid having to drop down into the Nene Valley and climb back out again.

And how many in Northampton actually want to go to Leicester (when Saints aren't playing Tigers) or Bedford? Have a look at the quality of the respective road links for a clue.

My sense as a resident is that Kettering, Wellingborough, Rushden, and Towcester are all well ahead of Leicester or Bedford for travel demand to/from Northampton.

More seriously. I'm interested in a local's explanation of the economic factors that drive population growth in and around Northampton. Looked at from the outside the superficial explanation is its excellent location on the road network for distribution.

I do know that Cambridge has inbound commuting on the A14 from as far out as Kettering, but Northampton seems unlikely?

 

[zwk500]

More seriously. I'm interested in a local's explanation of the economic factors that drive population growth in and around Northampton. Looked at from the outside the superficial explanation is its excellent location on the road network for distribution.

I do know that Cambridge has inbound commuting on the A14 from as far out as Kettering, but Northampton seems unlikely?

I'm far from an expert. However, my sense is that the 2 key factors are the relatively cheap housing in London Commuter terms, and the availability of entry-level or non-degree work in warehousing and manufacturing.

Commuters to London or MK are being priced out even from MK, Northampton is a half-hour drive or 10-minute train further, so even a modest drop in price for a 3-bed semi is quite appreciative. Add to this the fact that Northampton has an actual 'town feel' to it, rather than MK which feels inside-out with the shopping centre and business park in the middle of a series of disconnected estates. Not that Northampton's perfect, but it at least does feel human scale. The M1 provides the core road links, with the connection to the A14 being not great although the A45 is dual carriageway until the A14 junction. The train links to London, MK and Birmingham will also be key in this - last trains are quite late due to the presence of the Depot. Change at MK for Manchester, although with New Street being as long to reach as Euston, most routes to Yorkshire and the NE give you an itinerary via London.

There's a small market for commuting to Birmingham but I suspect (based purely on anecdotal evidence) this is more people already in Northampton moving jobs (or having jobs moved) taking advantage of hybrid working patterns, than a serious pull factor into the town. If you want to commute east, you'd live in a town better connected to the A14.

And then there's the availability of non-office jobs. Warehousing is key, although there's a decent sized manufacturing and heavy engineering (mostly rail-connected) sector. The logistics industry has expanded significantly, and Northampton has bus services (company and public) up to Rugby as well for Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal, so it's not just the Grange Park and Northampton Gateway sites providing jobs.

Northampton will also have an element of growth from being close to Silverstone, although Towcester is also expanding significantly so I don't know how much of the job growth at the circuit is splitting across the 3 towns.

Again, I am not an expert and most of this is a 'vibes' based sense of things from somebody who's not been looking too closely at what goes on.

 

[cle]

Commuters to London or MK are being priced out even from MK, Northampton is a half-hour drive or 10-minute train further, so even a modest drop in price for a 3-bed semi is quite appreciative. Add to this the fact that Northampton has an actual 'town feel' to it, rather than MK which feels inside-out with the shopping centre and business park in the middle of a series of disconnected estates. Not that Northampton's perfect, but it at least does feel human scale. The M1 provides the core road links, with the connection to the A14 being not great although the A45 is dual carriageway until the A14 junction. The train links to London, MK and Birmingham will also be key in this - last trains are quite late due to the presence of the Depot. Change at MK for Manchester, although with New Street being as long to reach as Euston, most routes to Yorkshire and the NE give you an itinerary via London.

MK has grown a ton and take a lot of the oxygen in this type of discussion, but Northampton has grown massively too. And you're right, it is more of a traditional town centre / big square type of feel with the market, older buildings inc housing stock, cobbler heritage etc. Not to mention walkable nightlife, restaurants, real pubs etc...

MK is not for everyone (but is definitely far better placed for London commuting) - so I am not surprised that Northampton picks up some of that drift for people who want a more 'recognizable' type of town and a lower price point.

 

[endecotp]

Connectivity at Nuneaton has improved again in the last couple of years.

Can you elaborate on that please?

I’ve just looked at what northbound connections are available on weekday afternoons. The Cambridge train arrives at Nuneaton at xx08. Departures go to Manchester at xx10 - a 2-minute or 62-minute connection - and to Crewe at xx54. If you want to go to Penrith, which is the sort of journey I used to do, you’d need to change at Crewe, and you’d end up on the same train you would have been on if you’d changed at Birmingham.

The only difference I’ve noticed is a Lumo service to Scotland which stops at Nuneaton at 1434 - that offers some useful connections.

 

[dk1]

Can you elaborate on that please?

I’ve just looked at what northbound connections are available on weekday afternoons. The Cambridge train arrives at Nuneaton at xx08. Departures go to Manchester at xx10 - a 2-minute or 62-minute connection - and to Crewe at xx54. If you want to go to Penrith, which is the sort of journey I used to do, you’d need to change at Crewe, and you’d end up on the same train you would have been on if you’d changed at Birmingham.

The only difference I’ve noticed is a Lumo service to Scotland which stops at Nuneaton at 1434 - that offers some useful connections.

I just meant that Avanti now serve Nuneaton all day everyday on the Manchester route and Lumo West Coast serve Nuneaton on their Stirling services. That’s quite an uplift in express departures compared to the original VHF timetable. Obviously some connections are better than others depending on where you are travelling to/from.