Open access Settle Carlisle line

[philthetube]

I was wondering if there are any through routes via the Settle Carlisle line which would be of interest to an open access operator.

 

[JonathanH]

I was wondering if there are any through routes via the Settle Carlisle line which would be of interest to an open access operator.

There are regular open access services on the Settle to Carlisle line (ie charters), but previous evidence shows that timetabled services aren't going to pay their way.

 

[Sorcerer]

Rural lines like Settle to Carlisle aren't really the sort that make a profit, so no matter how scenic it is, it's unlikely that open access operators will take interest in them. There's a reason why the ones we see now are all intercity services along trunk routes connecting to London, Heathrow Express being a notable exception. So unless it was part of that kind of service I wouldn't expect to see them bidding for track access along that line anytime soon.

 

[Bald Rick]

There's a reason why the ones we see now are all intercity services along trunk routes connecting to London, Heathrow Express being a notable exception.

On the basis that Heathrow has an economy the size of a small city, it’s understandable!

 

[A S Leib]

On the basis that Heathrow has an economy the size of a small city, it’s understandable!

As of 2014, the most populous travel-to-work area* was London. The fourth most populous, ahead of everywhere else bar Manchester and Birmingham, was Slough and Heathrow, with 1.66 mn people.

*I think a measure of whether the majority of people living in an area also work in that area.

 

[Sorcerer]

On the basis that Heathrow has an economy the size of a small city, it’s understandable!

Indeed, and quite often an airport express can be lucrative by itself as long as there isn't an Elizabeth Line to eat into the profits of the premium fares they often charge. It's certainly more attractive to private enterprise than a rural line like Settle-Carlisle which might get some more tourist revenue than your typical rural railway but otherwise won't be raking in a great deal.

 

[A S Leib]

If Grand Central hadn't gone for London to Bradford Interchange, would anybody have likely tried a London to S&C line stations service, possibly splitting at Leeds or Shipley for Bradford? I don't know how much of GC's revenue is from Pontefract and Wakefield (of the Bradford route, I'd guess mostly Doncaster due to speed, then Pontefract as no other direct services), and I doubt getting paths for that would have ever been easy.

 

[The Planner]

If Grand Central hadn't gone for London to Bradford Interchange, would anybody have likely tried a London to S&C line stations service, possibly splitting at Leeds or Shipley for Bradford? I don't know how much of GC's revenue is from Pontefract and Wakefield (of the Bradford route, I'd guess mostly Doncaster due to speed, then Pontefract as no other direct services), and I doubt getting paths for that would have ever been easy.

No. Why would they chuck all the money they would make from the ECML on an extension to some shacks.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Perhaps Bradford Forster Square or Leeds to Glasgow via the Glasgow South Western line and Settle & Carlisle line would be feasible, operated by an operator like Grand Central or Lumo.
Yorkshire to western Scotland is something that is largely unserved by a direct service.
A route stopping at Shipley, Keighley, Skipton, Settle, Ribblehead, Appleby, Carlisle, Dumfries and Kilmarnock could attract reasonable loads at the right price.
The major issues as I see them are as follows:
1) capacity at the southern end especially - is there room for a few trains a day on the section from Bradford or Leeds to Skipton, and at what time can those paths be found?
2) rolling stock - you'd probably want something like a 221 or 222 for a good compromise between speed and availability, but can a 22x utilise 15x line speeds on the Settle and Carlisle/Glasgow South Western? You'd also need to consider whether the 222s or 221s that Grand Central/Lumo WCML are currently using are going to become available any time soon.

 

[A S Leib]

No. Why would they chuck all the money they would make from the ECML on an extension to some shacks.

I didn't suggest abandoning the ECML. I was asking how realistic it would have been in the absence of the GC West Riding service.

Perhaps Bradford Forster Square or Leeds to Glasgow via the Glasgow South Western line and Settle & Carlisle line would be feasible, operated by an operator like Grand Central or Lumo.
Yorkshire to western Scotland is something that is largely unserved by a direct service.

I'm sure there's demand from Leeds to Glasgow; less so that there's enough for an open-access operator, especially taking an hour longer than via Lockerbie (though the northern WCML timetable can be annoying enough at times from a passenger perspective that as long as it's direct, that may not matter).

 

[ox_chap]

As this is a speculative forum article, you could almost imagine a future where a new service runs the length of the country and over major reopened (or saved, i.e. S&C) lines. London, Oxford, Bedford, Derby, Matlock, Manchester, Hellifield, Carlisle, Hawick, Edinburgh. Two trains a day each way maybe? Top notch rolling stock....

 

[Iskra]

There are regular open access services on the Settle to Carlisle line (ie charters), but previous evidence shows that timetabled services aren't going to pay their way

I don’t think you can draw that conclusion from such a small and poor sample size. The previous attempt didn’t cover the full line and ran a handful of times a day, without connecting Leeds or Carlisle, was expensive and was difficult for solo travellers (or anyone really since it wasn’t in the main booking systems) to book.

The fact that Northern services are doing a good trade, is much better quality evidence for an opposing view. As is the amount of tickets for the Bradford area to Glasgow on the Blackpool services to Preston. LNER’s fare trial means the market is more ripe than ever.

I believe a Glasgow-Carlisle-Leeds-Nottingham (and maybe onwards to Cambridge) service would do a decent trade.

 

[AlastairFraser]

I'm sure there's demand from Leeds to Glasgow; less so that there's enough for an open-access operator

Depends if the open access operator is pre existing or not - Lumo has expanded from the East Coast Main Line to the West Coast Main Line, and now the Great Western Main Line.
The more routes they operate, the more routes they can spread admin costs across.

I can't see LNER or any other franchised TOC operating this service - they don't really have suitable rolling stock for a start, and I don't think Transport Scotland would consider a ScotRail service extension as far south as Leeds to be within ScotRail's remit (although the idea of a few ScotRail 222 operated services on the Glasgow South Western to Carlisle may be a concept worth exploring, if there is enough flexibility in the fleet.)

especially taking an hour longer than via Lockerbie (though the northern WCML timetable can be annoying enough at times from a passenger perspective that as long as it's direct, that may not matter).

There's a trade off between cost and speed there that British rail passengers are not always opposed to, especially with open access operators.
For example, on Monday, the 0658 GC Bradford Interchange to London takes 3hr 5 mins to Kings Cross, while the 0630 LNER Bradford Forster Square to London takes only 2hr 29 mins to Kings Cross.

From my (admittedly rough) estimate, Bradford Forster Square to Glasgow Central via the route I've outlined would take around 4.5 hours, while apparently the fastest current itinerary from any Bradford station to Glasgow takes 3hrs 54 mins.
If (and it's a big if) you could achieve the 4.5hr timing, that would be reasonably competitive compared to the existing options.

As this is a speculative forum article, you could almost imagine a future where a new service runs the length of the country and over major reopened (or saved, i.e. S&C) lines. London, Oxford, Bedford, Derby, Matlock, Manchester, Hellifield, Carlisle, Hawick, Edinburgh. Two trains a day each way maybe? Top notch rolling stock....

Unlike most speculative open access proposals, this would link areas of significant population that are currently unserved by direct services.
The Glasgow City Region (East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City itself, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, and West Dunbartonshire) contains 1.8 million residents, and that's excluding the 366k population in Ayrshire, which would mostly be within 45 mins-1hrs commute from my proposed Kilmarnock stop.

Whereas the Yorkshire and Humber Region has approximately 5.6 million residents, with around 2.435 million of those in West Yorkshire - again mostly within 45 mins to 1hrs commute from stops at Bradford Forster Square/Keighley/Shipley.
This isn't Go-Op meandering between small towns in the South West, this service would connect quite a few large population centres.

 

[A S Leib]

The Glasgow City Region (East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City itself, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, and West Dunbartonshire) contains 1.8 million residents, and that's excluding the 366k population in Ayrshire, which would mostly be within 45 mins-1hrs commute from my proposed Kilmarnock stop.

Whereas the Yorkshire and Humber Region has approximately 5.6 million residents, with around 2.435 million of those in West Yorkshire - again mostly within 45 mins to 1hrs commute from stops at Bradford Forster Square/Keighley/Shipley.
This isn't Go-Op meandering between small towns in the South West, this service would connect quite a few large population centres.

Some large population centres, but I don't think it's fair to count people outside catchment areas of the stations directly on the route if a selling point is that it's a direct route. There's also the fact that end-to-end Leeds to Glasgow services would be competing with a (more or less) bihourly CrossCountry service from February again, even if XC isn't necessarily their preferred choice.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Some large population centres, but I don't think it's fair to count people outside catchment areas of the stations directly on the route if a selling point is that it's a direct route. There's also the fact that end-to-end Leeds to Glasgow services would be competing with a (more or less) bihourly CrossCountry service from February again, even if XC isn't necessarily their preferred choice.

Well, I did some calculations, and nearly 2.1 million of 2.4 million in West Yorks are within 1hr of the Bradford to Glasgow via Shipley option.
1hr to the station isn't exactly close, I understand what you mean, but it's also not uncommon for people to travel 1hr+ to the airport for a domestic flight, and Yorkshire to western Scotland is in a similar sort of journey category as Birmingham to Glasgow.

Are XC actually going to be able to operate those services? Have they been confirmed?

 

[Bald Rick]

Perhaps Bradford Forster Square or Leeds to Glasgow via the Glasgow South Western line and Settle & Carlisle line would be feasible

Feasible, as in possible, of course.

Economic enough for an open access operator? no.

My back of envelope suggests that the existing S&C service costs around £30m pa to operate in marginal cost terms. A putative Bradford or Leeds to Glasgow would cost about twice that for a 3-4 return trip daily service, assuming you want something more than a sprinter. And that’s a service that is going to take well over 4 hours.

few people would use it

 

[YorksLad12]

Perhaps Bradford Forster Square or Leeds to Glasgow via the Glasgow South Western line and Settle & Carlisle line would be feasible, operated by an operator like Grand Central or Lumo.
Yorkshire to western Scotland is something that is largely unserved by a direct service.
A route stopping at Shipley, Keighley, Skipton, Settle, Ribblehead, Appleby, Carlisle, Dumfries and Kilmarnock could attract reasonable loads at the right price.
The major issues as I see them are as follows:
1) capacity at the southern end especially - is there room for a few trains a day on the section from Bradford or Leeds to Skipton, and at what time can those paths be found?
2) rolling stock - you'd probably want something like a 221 or 222 for a good compromise between speed and availability, but can a 22x utilise 15x line speeds on the Settle and Carlisle/Glasgow South Western? You'd also need to consider whether the 222s or 221s that Grand Central/Lumo WCML are currently using are going to become available any time soon.

You are Ian Yeowart, and I claim my £5.

 

[AlastairFraser]

You are Ian Yeowart, and I claim my £5.

Haha

Feasible, as in possible, of course.

Economic enough for an open access operator? no.

My back of envelope suggests that the existing S&C service costs around £30m pa to operate in marginal cost terms. A putative Bradford or Leeds to Glasgow would cost about twice that for a 3-4 return trip daily service, assuming you want something more than a sprinter. And that’s a service that is going to take well over 4 hours.

few people would use it

Only time would tell in terms of passenger numbers.
The Northern S&C services themselves only serve a sparsely populated area with no real intercity connections by design, and the passenger environment is uncomfortable.
Let's see what happens

 

[A S Leib]

Is there a particular reason why the daily LNER Skipton service survived when the Sunderland, Glasgow and starting Stirling services were cut?

 

[quantinghome]

Feasible, as in possible, of course.

Economic enough for an open access operator? no.

My back of envelope suggests that the existing S&C service costs around £30m pa to operate in marginal cost terms. A putative Bradford or Leeds to Glasgow would cost about twice that for a 3-4 return trip daily service, assuming you want something more than a sprinter. And that’s a service that is going to take well over 4 hours.

few people would use it

That sounds off to me. Lumo's annual revenue is about £54 million, so assuming it's turning a profit, its operating costs must be a good chunk lower, and running costs for a Leeds-Glasgow service would surely be lower than that.

It needn't take over 4 hours. I'd think you'd want a limited stop Leeds-Carlisle plus non-stop on the WCML to Glasgow to get the fastest end-to-end journey - which would be comfortably 3h45, and so quicker than the ECML. This is admittedly a bit slower than Liverpool-Glasgow (the closest equivalent I can think of) but it can't be that different in terms of passenger demand.

 

[A S Leib]

but it can't be that different in terms of passenger demand.

If anything, maybe larger (in terms of total demand, not necessarily for routes via Carlisle), as Manchester and London services provide options for Southport etc. in hours without the Liverpool service; Glasgow services from Yorkshire are much thinner.