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If Grand Central's new Brighton service is approved Cambridge becomes the only station with 6m+ passengers per year without a service to "The North"

Failed Unit

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I remember years ago discussion about a Cambridge - Leeds services which was to be used as a stopping services to enable an hourly services stopping everywhere between Peterborough and Doncaster. It was concluded it was impossible to path,

As others have mentioned BR did operate the Cambridge - Manchester and beyond route when the 156s came along. Not sure how much through traffic it had. I think it also meant that Norwich - Birmingham could continue as direct flow. As stated on this very thread it wasn’t frequent as some of the Ipswich trains also continued North.

Going back an even further. BR did run a Cambridge - Doncaster services (via Lincoln and Spalding) - I suspect demand was low or why close the line. I am not sure even if the line had survived if the service would be a gold mine or not. I suspect not.
 
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Acathater

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Quite. I'm not sure that Cambridge would be the better off if the former Colchester-Barrow-in-Furness service were resurrected
It did make easy connections between several university cities - Lancaster/Preston/Manchester/Sheffield/Nottingham (with changes for Leeds/Bradford/Loughborough/Leicester/Northampton) and if you include the Blackpool starters then Norwich and Ipswich as well (possibly more)
A bit of thought and you could have had a UK academic rail network linking some of the UK's key academic centres. You'd want something better than the class 156s that ran the route though
 

35B

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It did make easy connections between several university cities - Lancaster/Preston/Manchester/Sheffield/Nottingham (with changes for Leeds/Bradford/Loughborough/Leicester/Northampton) and if you include the Blackpool starters then Norwich and Ipswich as well (possibly more)
A bit of thought and you could have had a UK academic rail network linking some of the UK's key academic centres. You'd want something better than the class 156s that ran the route though
The particular value of which is….?
 

dk1

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But Leicester and Birmingham aren’t the North - it’s a circuitous route on a 3-car train. Leicester and Norwich are virtually the same distance from Cambridge as the crow flies but while Norwich takes 78 mins, Leicester takes a circuitous route and 108 mins and is much more expensive. Birmingham takes about 2hrs 40! Very slow. Cheaper prices and faster speeds would increase patronage. Until about 2003, Cambridge didn’t have a direct service to Norwich but its become increasingly popular.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Cambridge has always had a direct service to Norwich. It was just very infrequent (just one or two trains daily) between the early 1990s and 2002 when the SRA funded the Anglia Railways bid for a regular link using four newly purchased 2-car 170s.
 

Magdalia

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Cambridge has 13 million across its 3 stations.
It doesn't. The 2024/25 numbers are 10.6m for Cambridge, 1.5m for Cambridge North, and zero for Cambridge South. Furthermore we have to net out the Cambridge-Cambridge North journeys which reduce the total by about 0.6m.

We only have a "first 4 weeks" figure for Cambridge South usage: we have no idea how much of that is abstracted from Cambridge, and not new traffic.

Your 13m figure is purely speculative.

Cambridge’s central station is busier than Newcastle, Sheffield, Bristol Temple Meads etc.

The Cambridge stations have high usage for two main reasons, the two way flows between Cambridge and London, and the short distance commuter flows into Cambridge. Long distance journeys to/from "the north" are a drop in the bucket.

But the huge traffic levels on the A14/A1 show there is a massive market for travel north - it’s just it’s all car based!
The A14/A1 route serves most of East Anglia, not just Cambridge. Furthermore, the A14 and A1 are far more direct than the rail routes to almost everywhere in "the north". Whatever the rail offer, most travel between East Anglia and "the north" is going to be by car.

Leicester and Birmingham aren’t the North
Leicester and Birmingham are nearer than "the north", and still the numbers are small.

While we have 24 cars an hour to Brighton and the South Coast.
Thameslink is primarily for the core stations and Gatwick Airport, not the South Coast.

Cambridge has always had a direct service to Norwich. It was just very infrequent (just one or two trains daily) between the early 1990s and 2002 when the SRA funded the Anglia Railways bid for a regular link using four newly purchased 2-car 170s.
Compared to the cities of the north, Norwich (and Ipswich) have a very different relationship with Cambridge. For them, Cambridge is one of their main destinations, whereas the northern cities are much more interested in trains to and from other northern cities than they are in connections to Cambridge. That's why the north has the Trans Pennine Upgrade.

You seen to have an aversion to increased services from Cambridge to the North and Midlands
What I look at is how the railway can best support economic growth in and around Cambridge, within the constraints of the existing infrastructure. Going north from Cambridge there is extremely limited capacity, notably at Ely, but also between Ely and Peterborough. The priority for using that scarce capacity is for commuting into Cambridge from stations within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, on the Fen Line, and on the Breckland line. In the words of the current government, it is bringing Cambridge's growth to the postcodes on those routes. What I have an aversion to is wasting that scarce capacity on long distance services that will bring much less benefit to Cambridge, and at the same time resulting in a sub-optimal service for the commuters into Cambridge that are going to generate the economic growth.

Furthermore, the top priority for any increased capacity between Ely and Peterborough is going to be freight traffic for building the Reservoir in the Fens near Chatteris. Economic growth will grind to a halt if we run out of water.

How much of that explains the difference with Oxford's service, given Oxford historically had Paddington to Birkenhead services?
This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.

Assuming that's from the population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined
The population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined was 308k in the 2021 census. This is the area that will be covered by the Greater Cambridge Development Corporation. Cambridge North is in South Cambridgeshire, as are Waterbeach, Shelford, Whittlesford, Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth and Ashwell.
 

fishwomp

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This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.
That only opened (Aynho to Ashendon Jct) in 1910 (the "Bicester Cut Off"), prior to that Oxford was the route ("Great Way Round").

http://www.greatwestern.org.uk/m_in_gwr_history3.htm has a good potted history:
1856​
2 Feb​
First Great Western goods trains arrive at Birkenhead followed by the first passenger trains on 1 May​
1892​
7 MarThe Paddington to Birkenhead service includes corridor trains with full lavatory facilities
1910​
1 JulyAshendon Junction to Anyho Junction route opens for passenger traffic (goods traffic used the line from 4 April)
.. so from perspective of 'is that why Oxford has a good service to Birmingham (but not to Liverpool since late '90s) - that's a no.. as there weren't services once that cut off opened!
 

JonathanH

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Personally I think Cambridge - (the three stations between them are likely to have 20 million passengers within 5 years) should have direct services to Newcastle and/or Leeds. Bear in mind also that Cambridge is set to grow hugely in the next decade.
I guess that is basically consistent with Oxford having a Bristol service, but I can't really see how it is going to be achieved, and whether it is the best use of the capacity north of Peterborough.
 

Merle Haggard

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There's been a couple of towns that haven't been mentioned at all, so far, although neither have very high figures of rail usage.

Neither Walsall (population 284,000 in 2021 census) nor Northampton (population 249,000 in 2021 census) have direct services to the North. The nearest is to Birmingham.

Both, however, are close to motorways; Walsall to M6 J10 and Northampton to M1 J15, J15A and for the North J16.

As far as the argument that good rail services are necessary for expansion Northampton rather gives the lie to that. The population in 2011 was 212,000 (2011 census) so its population has increased by 17 1/2 % over those ten years. That's a bigger increase than Milton Keynes achieved over the same period with a much better train service. Possibly road access is more important - Northampton has dual carriageway roads to the West (A43) and mostly dual carriageway to the East (A45/A14). Perhaps that's a more important factor in growth?

'Census' means Office for National Statistics Census', carried out every ten years and contacting every address in the country. I make that clear because, on another thread, my figures from the same source for another part of the country were dismissed as 'AI generated'.
 

Palmerston

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There's been a couple of towns that haven't been mentioned at all, so far, although neither have very high figures of rail usage.

Neither Walsall (population 284,000 in 2021 census) nor Northampton (population 249,000 in 2021 census) have direct services to the North. The nearest is to Birmingham
Agree that Northampton is poorly connected. Seemed to get a fairly raw deal from Beeching era cuts.

Walsall is really a part of the West Midlands conurbation so it's not too surprising you need to go via Birmingham or Wolverhampton.
 

A S Leib

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Putting Cambridge's growth into perspective, the total UK population up to 2019* was 20% up against 1981 and 14% higher than in 2000. In Cambridge, it was 24% from 1981-2019 and 8% from 2000-2019. East Cambridgeshire's growth from 1981 was 66%, beaten by only Tower Hamlets, Milton Keynes and Newham, and South Cambridgeshire saw growth of 46%.

Of course, the starting point's important as well, rather than pointing to 10% growth in the Isles of Scilly when that meant an extra two hundred people, and not assuming trends won't or can't change, such as Milton Keynes skyrocketing after the closure of East West Rail.

*the ONS spreadsheet I'm getting this from doesn't go any more recently; I think it was from an FOI request.
 

endecotp

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Having lived in Cambridge for a decade in the 90s/00s, with family connections in the North West:

- Yes there were Liverpool to Harwich trains, which I used frequently between Manchester and Cambridge. But they were so slow, you could often arrive an hour earlier by getting off at Sheffield and travelling via Doncaster to Peterborough, and joining the direct train that had left an hour before and wandered off to Leicester.

- Travelling to e.g. the Lake District used to be tolerable by changing at Nuneaton: horribly slow on a Sprinter from Cambridge to Nuneaton and then fast up the WCML. But then the WCML timetable was changed and next-to-nothing stopped at Nuneaton anymore, making it better to go via Birmingham and adding an hour to the journey.

- The most direct route to the ECML northbound would have been via Huntingdon, if they hadn't turned that disused line into a busway.

- ECML connections at Peterborough, for Newcastle etc., had their ups and downs, due to how many ECML trains stopped there and how well they connected. Still better than getting to the North West though.

All a bit depressing really.
 

fishwomp

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I guess that is basically consistent with Oxford having a Bristol service, but I can't really see how it is going to be achieved, and whether it is the best use of the capacity north of Peterborough.
I just discovered that Cambridge has a Bristol service ( https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G00841/2026-10-05/detailed ) - using my new speed league table https://koyli.github.io/rail-speed/ (I posted earlier today https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/uk-rail-speed-league-new-site.307830/)

It's the longest distance service to Cambridge (251 route miles Bristol to Stansted - average speed 47.9mph) - but only 125 miles as the crow flies (average speed 24.0mph!)

Services to the west/north from Cambridge are really circuitous - to Brum as the crow flies averages 32 mph, although route miles basis it's a respectable (ish) 50mph. Pretty poor really.
 

A S Leib

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I just discovered that Cambridge has a Bristol service ( https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G00841/2026-10-05/detailed ) - using my new speed league table https://koyli.github.io/rail-speed/ (I posted earlier today https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/uk-rail-speed-league-new-site.307830/)

It's the longest distance service to Cambridge (251 route miles Bristol to Stansted - average speed 47.9mph) - but only 125 miles as the crow flies (average speed 24.0mph!)

Services to the west/north from Cambridge are really circuitous - to Brum as the crow flies averages 32 mph, although route miles basis it's a respectable (ish) 50mph. Pretty poor really.
Even just between Cambridge and Peterborough, the route length's 15 miles longer than a more direct route nearer St Ives would be (without saying that would necessarily be a net positive for long-distance traffic, as Peterborough's a harder change than Ely for Norwich and King's Lynn).
 

William3000

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It doesn't. The 2024/25 numbers are 10.6m for Cambridge, 1.5m for Cambridge North, and zero for Cambridge South. Furthermore we have to net out the Cambridge-Cambridge North journeys which reduce the total by about 0.6m.

We only have a "first 4 weeks" figure for Cambridge South usage: we have no idea how much of that is abstracted from Cambridge, and not new traffic.

Your 13m figure is purely speculative.



The Cambridge stations have high usage for two main reasons, the two way flows between Cambridge and London, and the short distance commuter flows into Cambridge. Long distance journeys to/from "the north" are a drop in the bucket.


The A14/A1 route serves most of East Anglia, not just Cambridge. Furthermore, the A14 and A1 are far more direct than the rail routes to almost everywhere in "the north". Whatever the rail offer, most travel between East Anglia and "the north" is going to be by car.


Leicester and Birmingham are nearer than "the north", and still the numbers are small.


Thameslink is primarily for the core stations and Gatwick Airport, not the South Coast.


Compared to the cities of the north, Norwich (and Ipswich) have a very different relationship with Cambridge. For them, Cambridge is one of their main destinations, whereas the northern cities are much more interested in trains to and from other northern cities than they are in connections to Cambridge. That's why the north has the Trans Pennine Upgrade.


What I look at is how the railway can best support economic growth in and around Cambridge, within the constraints of the existing infrastructure. Going north from Cambridge there is extremely limited capacity, notably at Ely, but also between Ely and Peterborough. The priority for using that scarce capacity is for commuting into Cambridge from stations within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, on the Fen Line, and on the Breckland line. In the words of the current government, it is bringing Cambridge's growth to the postcodes on those routes. What I have an aversion to is wasting that scarce capacity on long distance services that will bring much less benefit to Cambridge, and at the same time resulting in a sub-optimal service for the commuters into Cambridge that are going to generate the economic growth.

Furthermore, the top priority for any increased capacity between Ely and Peterborough is going to be freight traffic for building the Reservoir in the Fens near Chatteris. Economic growth will grind to a halt if we run out of water.


This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.


The population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined was 308k in the 2021 census. This is the area that will be covered by the Greater Cambridge Development Corporation. Cambridge North is in South Cambridgeshire, as are Waterbeach, Shelford, Whittlesford, Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth and Ashwell.
We do - we know first four weeks was 100,000; second four weeks was 210,000; and third four weeks 340,000.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It doesn't. The 2024/25 numbers are 10.6m for Cambridge, 1.5m for Cambridge North, and zero for Cambridge South. Furthermore we have to net out the Cambridge-Cambridge North journeys which reduce the total by about 0.6m.

We only have a "first 4 weeks" figure for Cambridge South usage: we have no idea how much of that is abstracted from Cambridge, and not new traffic.

Your 13m figure is purely speculative.



The Cambridge stations have high usage for two main reasons, the two way flows between Cambridge and London, and the short distance commuter flows into Cambridge. Long distance journeys to/from "the north" are a drop in the bucket.


The A14/A1 route serves most of East Anglia, not just Cambridge. Furthermore, the A14 and A1 are far more direct than the rail routes to almost everywhere in "the north". Whatever the rail offer, most travel between East Anglia and "the north" is going to be by car.


Leicester and Birmingham are nearer than "the north", and still the numbers are small.


Thameslink is primarily for the core stations and Gatwick Airport, not the South Coast.


Compared to the cities of the north, Norwich (and Ipswich) have a very different relationship with Cambridge. For them, Cambridge is one of their main destinations, whereas the northern cities are much more interested in trains to and from other northern cities than they are in connections to Cambridge. That's why the north has the Trans Pennine Upgrade.


What I look at is how the railway can best support economic growth in and around Cambridge, within the constraints of the existing infrastructure. Going north from Cambridge there is extremely limited capacity, notably at Ely, but also between Ely and Peterborough. The priority for using that scarce capacity is for commuting into Cambridge from stations within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, on the Fen Line, and on the Breckland line. In the words of the current government, it is bringing Cambridge's growth to the postcodes on those routes. What I have an aversion to is wasting that scarce capacity on long distance services that will bring much less benefit to Cambridge, and at the same time resulting in a sub-optimal service for the commuters into Cambridge that are going to generate the economic growth.

Furthermore, the top priority for any increased capacity between Ely and Peterborough is going to be freight traffic for building the Reservoir in the Fens near Chatteris. Economic growth will grind to a halt if we run out of water.


This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.


The population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined was 308k in the 2021 census. This is the area that will be covered by the Greater Cambridge Development Corporation. Cambridge North is in South Cambridgeshire, as are Waterbeach, Shelford, Whittlesford, Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth and Ashwell.
Long distance services to the north are indeed very low - because there are no direct routes. We know people in Cambridge travel north because the A14/A1(M) are very busy

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It doesn't. The 2024/25 numbers are 10.6m for Cambridge, 1.5m for Cambridge North, and zero for Cambridge South. Furthermore we have to net out the Cambridge-Cambridge North journeys which reduce the total by about 0.6m.

We only have a "first 4 weeks" figure for Cambridge South usage: we have no idea how much of that is abstracted from Cambridge, and not new traffic.

Your 13m figure is purely speculative.



The Cambridge stations have high usage for two main reasons, the two way flows between Cambridge and London, and the short distance commuter flows into Cambridge. Long distance journeys to/from "the north" are a drop in the bucket.


The A14/A1 route serves most of East Anglia, not just Cambridge. Furthermore, the A14 and A1 are far more direct than the rail routes to almost everywhere in "the north". Whatever the rail offer, most travel between East Anglia and "the north" is going to be by car.


Leicester and Birmingham are nearer than "the north", and still the numbers are small.


Thameslink is primarily for the core stations and Gatwick Airport, not the South Coast.


Compared to the cities of the north, Norwich (and Ipswich) have a very different relationship with Cambridge. For them, Cambridge is one of their main destinations, whereas the northern cities are much more interested in trains to and from other northern cities than they are in connections to Cambridge. That's why the north has the Trans Pennine Upgrade.


What I look at is how the railway can best support economic growth in and around Cambridge, within the constraints of the existing infrastructure. Going north from Cambridge there is extremely limited capacity, notably at Ely, but also between Ely and Peterborough. The priority for using that scarce capacity is for commuting into Cambridge from stations within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, on the Fen Line, and on the Breckland line. In the words of the current government, it is bringing Cambridge's growth to the postcodes on those routes. What I have an aversion to is wasting that scarce capacity on long distance services that will bring much less benefit to Cambridge, and at the same time resulting in a sub-optimal service for the commuters into Cambridge that are going to generate the economic growth.

Furthermore, the top priority for any increased capacity between Ely and Peterborough is going to be freight traffic for building the Reservoir in the Fens near Chatteris. Economic growth will grind to a halt if we run out of water.


This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.


The population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined was 308k in the 2021 census. This is the area that will be covered by the Greater Cambridge Development Corporation. Cambridge North is in South Cambridgeshire, as are Waterbeach, Shelford, Whittlesford, Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth and Ashwell.
13 million isn’t speculative - it’s the figure Greater Anglia provided us. And it is likely to be 15 million within a couple of years and 17 million within 3 years across all three. The suppressed demand northwards must be enormous

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It doesn't. The 2024/25 numbers are 10.6m for Cambridge, 1.5m for Cambridge North, and zero for Cambridge South. Furthermore we have to net out the Cambridge-Cambridge North journeys which reduce the total by about 0.6m.

We only have a "first 4 weeks" figure for Cambridge South usage: we have no idea how much of that is abstracted from Cambridge, and not new traffic.

Your 13m figure is purely speculative.



The Cambridge stations have high usage for two main reasons, the two way flows between Cambridge and London, and the short distance commuter flows into Cambridge. Long distance journeys to/from "the north" are a drop in the bucket.


The A14/A1 route serves most of East Anglia, not just Cambridge. Furthermore, the A14 and A1 are far more direct than the rail routes to almost everywhere in "the north". Whatever the rail offer, most travel between East Anglia and "the north" is going to be by car.


Leicester and Birmingham are nearer than "the north", and still the numbers are small.


Thameslink is primarily for the core stations and Gatwick Airport, not the South Coast.


Compared to the cities of the north, Norwich (and Ipswich) have a very different relationship with Cambridge. For them, Cambridge is one of their main destinations, whereas the northern cities are much more interested in trains to and from other northern cities than they are in connections to Cambridge. That's why the north has the Trans Pennine Upgrade.


What I look at is how the railway can best support economic growth in and around Cambridge, within the constraints of the existing infrastructure. Going north from Cambridge there is extremely limited capacity, notably at Ely, but also between Ely and Peterborough. The priority for using that scarce capacity is for commuting into Cambridge from stations within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, on the Fen Line, and on the Breckland line. In the words of the current government, it is bringing Cambridge's growth to the postcodes on those routes. What I have an aversion to is wasting that scarce capacity on long distance services that will bring much less benefit to Cambridge, and at the same time resulting in a sub-optimal service for the commuters into Cambridge that are going to generate the economic growth.

Furthermore, the top priority for any increased capacity between Ely and Peterborough is going to be freight traffic for building the Reservoir in the Fens near Chatteris. Economic growth will grind to a halt if we run out of water.


This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.


The population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined was 308k in the 2021 census. This is the area that will be covered by the Greater Cambridge Development Corporation. Cambridge North is in South Cambridgeshire, as are Waterbeach, Shelford, Whittlesford, Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth and Ashwell.
Not if you’re one of the 40% of Cambridge residents without a car

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It doesn't. The 2024/25 numbers are 10.6m for Cambridge, 1.5m for Cambridge North, and zero for Cambridge South. Furthermore we have to net out the Cambridge-Cambridge North journeys which reduce the total by about 0.6m.

We only have a "first 4 weeks" figure for Cambridge South usage: we have no idea how much of that is abstracted from Cambridge, and not new traffic.

Your 13m figure is purely speculative.



The Cambridge stations have high usage for two main reasons, the two way flows between Cambridge and London, and the short distance commuter flows into Cambridge. Long distance journeys to/from "the north" are a drop in the bucket.


The A14/A1 route serves most of East Anglia, not just Cambridge. Furthermore, the A14 and A1 are far more direct than the rail routes to almost everywhere in "the north". Whatever the rail offer, most travel between East Anglia and "the north" is going to be by car.


Leicester and Birmingham are nearer than "the north", and still the numbers are small.


Thameslink is primarily for the core stations and Gatwick Airport, not the South Coast.


Compared to the cities of the north, Norwich (and Ipswich) have a very different relationship with Cambridge. For them, Cambridge is one of their main destinations, whereas the northern cities are much more interested in trains to and from other northern cities than they are in connections to Cambridge. That's why the north has the Trans Pennine Upgrade.


What I look at is how the railway can best support economic growth in and around Cambridge, within the constraints of the existing infrastructure. Going north from Cambridge there is extremely limited capacity, notably at Ely, but also between Ely and Peterborough. The priority for using that scarce capacity is for commuting into Cambridge from stations within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, on the Fen Line, and on the Breckland line. In the words of the current government, it is bringing Cambridge's growth to the postcodes on those routes. What I have an aversion to is wasting that scarce capacity on long distance services that will bring much less benefit to Cambridge, and at the same time resulting in a sub-optimal service for the commuters into Cambridge that are going to generate the economic growth.

Furthermore, the top priority for any increased capacity between Ely and Peterborough is going to be freight traffic for building the Reservoir in the Fens near Chatteris. Economic growth will grind to a halt if we run out of water.


This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.


The population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined was 308k in the 2021 census. This is the area that will be covered by the Greater Cambridge Development Corporation. Cambridge North is in South Cambridgeshire, as are Waterbeach, Shelford, Whittlesford, Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth and Ashwell.
Yes but Gatwick Airport has 24 carriages per hour compared to 3 max to Leicester and Birmingham. And fares on Cross Country are prohibitively expensive

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It doesn't. The 2024/25 numbers are 10.6m for Cambridge, 1.5m for Cambridge North, and zero for Cambridge South. Furthermore we have to net out the Cambridge-Cambridge North journeys which reduce the total by about 0.6m.

We only have a "first 4 weeks" figure for Cambridge South usage: we have no idea how much of that is abstracted from Cambridge, and not new traffic.

Your 13m figure is purely speculative.



The Cambridge stations have high usage for two main reasons, the two way flows between Cambridge and London, and the short distance commuter flows into Cambridge. Long distance journeys to/from "the north" are a drop in the bucket.


The A14/A1 route serves most of East Anglia, not just Cambridge. Furthermore, the A14 and A1 are far more direct than the rail routes to almost everywhere in "the north". Whatever the rail offer, most travel between East Anglia and "the north" is going to be by car.


Leicester and Birmingham are nearer than "the north", and still the numbers are small.


Thameslink is primarily for the core stations and Gatwick Airport, not the South Coast.


Compared to the cities of the north, Norwich (and Ipswich) have a very different relationship with Cambridge. For them, Cambridge is one of their main destinations, whereas the northern cities are much more interested in trains to and from other northern cities than they are in connections to Cambridge. That's why the north has the Trans Pennine Upgrade.


What I look at is how the railway can best support economic growth in and around Cambridge, within the constraints of the existing infrastructure. Going north from Cambridge there is extremely limited capacity, notably at Ely, but also between Ely and Peterborough. The priority for using that scarce capacity is for commuting into Cambridge from stations within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, on the Fen Line, and on the Breckland line. In the words of the current government, it is bringing Cambridge's growth to the postcodes on those routes. What I have an aversion to is wasting that scarce capacity on long distance services that will bring much less benefit to Cambridge, and at the same time resulting in a sub-optimal service for the commuters into Cambridge that are going to generate the economic growth.

Furthermore, the top priority for any increased capacity between Ely and Peterborough is going to be freight traffic for building the Reservoir in the Fens near Chatteris. Economic growth will grind to a halt if we run out of water.


This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.


The population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined was 308k in the 2021 census. This is the area that will be covered by the Greater Cambridge Development Corporation. Cambridge North is in South Cambridgeshire, as are Waterbeach, Shelford, Whittlesford, Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth and Ashwell.
And I have a huge aversion to those who think Cambridge shouldn’t benefit from access to the North that places like Taunton, Winchester, Exeter, Basingstoke, Bournemouth, Southampton, Oxford, Leamington, Cheltenham, Norwich, Thetford, Ely, Brockenhurst, Banbury, Plymouth etc do.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It doesn't. The 2024/25 numbers are 10.6m for Cambridge, 1.5m for Cambridge North, and zero for Cambridge South. Furthermore we have to net out the Cambridge-Cambridge North journeys which reduce the total by about 0.6m.

We only have a "first 4 weeks" figure for Cambridge South usage: we have no idea how much of that is abstracted from Cambridge, and not new traffic.

Your 13m figure is purely speculative.



The Cambridge stations have high usage for two main reasons, the two way flows between Cambridge and London, and the short distance commuter flows into Cambridge. Long distance journeys to/from "the north" are a drop in the bucket.


The A14/A1 route serves most of East Anglia, not just Cambridge. Furthermore, the A14 and A1 are far more direct than the rail routes to almost everywhere in "the north". Whatever the rail offer, most travel between East Anglia and "the north" is going to be by car.


Leicester and Birmingham are nearer than "the north", and still the numbers are small.


Thameslink is primarily for the core stations and Gatwick Airport, not the South Coast.


Compared to the cities of the north, Norwich (and Ipswich) have a very different relationship with Cambridge. For them, Cambridge is one of their main destinations, whereas the northern cities are much more interested in trains to and from other northern cities than they are in connections to Cambridge. That's why the north has the Trans Pennine Upgrade.


What I look at is how the railway can best support economic growth in and around Cambridge, within the constraints of the existing infrastructure. Going north from Cambridge there is extremely limited capacity, notably at Ely, but also between Ely and Peterborough. The priority for using that scarce capacity is for commuting into Cambridge from stations within Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, on the Fen Line, and on the Breckland line. In the words of the current government, it is bringing Cambridge's growth to the postcodes on those routes. What I have an aversion to is wasting that scarce capacity on long distance services that will bring much less benefit to Cambridge, and at the same time resulting in a sub-optimal service for the commuters into Cambridge that are going to generate the economic growth.

Furthermore, the top priority for any increased capacity between Ely and Peterborough is going to be freight traffic for building the Reservoir in the Fens near Chatteris. Economic growth will grind to a halt if we run out of water.


This isn't correct. The Paddington-Birkenhead service ran via High Wycombe.


The population of Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire combined was 308k in the 2021 census. This is the area that will be covered by the Greater Cambridge Development Corporation. Cambridge North is in South Cambridgeshire, as are Waterbeach, Shelford, Whittlesford, Foxton, Shepreth, Meldreth and Ashwell.
The figures we are using as of today are 327,000.

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I’ll take that bet.
A pint in the Old Ticket Office? Or just a sportsman’s bet? I predict that come 2030/31 we will likely be looking at:
Cambridge (Central) circa 14.1m;
Cambridge North circa 2m
Cambridge South 3.9m

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There's been a couple of towns that haven't been mentioned at all, so far, although neither have very high figures of rail usage.

Neither Walsall (population 284,000 in 2021 census) nor Northampton (population 249,000 in 2021 census) have direct services to the North. The nearest is to Birmingham.

Both, however, are close to motorways; Walsall to M6 J10 and Northampton to M1 J15, J15A and for the North J16.

As far as the argument that good rail services are necessary for expansion Northampton rather gives the lie to that. The population in 2011 was 212,000 (2011 census) so its population has increased by 17 1/2 % over those ten years. That's a bigger increase than Milton Keynes achieved over the same period with a much better train service. Possibly road access is more important - Northampton has dual carriageway roads to the West (A43) and mostly dual carriageway to the East (A45/A14). Perhaps that's a more important factor in growth?

'Census' means Office for National Statistics Census', carried out every ten years and contacting every address in the country. I make that clear because, on another thread, my figures from the same source for another part of the country were dismissed as 'AI generated'.
But Northampton has 2.9m and Walsall 1.3m; compared to Cambridge (Central) at around 11m

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We do - we know first four weeks was 100,000; second four weeks was 210,000; and third four weeks 340,000.

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Long distance services to the north are indeed very low - because there are no direct routes. We know people in Cambridge travel north because the A14/A1(M) are very busy

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13 million isn’t speculative - it’s the figure Greater Anglia provided us. And it is likely to be 15 million within a couple of years and 17 million within 3 years across all three. The suppressed demand northwards must be enormous

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Not if you’re one of the 40% of Cambridge residents without a car

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Yes but Gatwick Airport has 24 carriages per hour compared to 3 max to Leicester and Birmingham. And fares on Cross Country are prohibitively expensive

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And I have a huge aversion to those who think Cambridge shouldn’t benefit from access to the North that places like Taunton, Winchester, Exeter, Basingstoke, Bournemouth, Southampton, Oxford, Leamington, Cheltenham, Norwich, Thetford, Ely, Brockenhurst, Banbury, Plymouth etc do.

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The figures we are using as of today are 327,000.

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A pint in the Old Ticket Office? Or just a sportsman’s bet? I predict that come 2030/31 we will likely be looking at:
Cambridge (Central) circa 14.1m;
Cambridge North circa 2m
Cambridge South 3.9m

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


But Northampton has 2.9m and Walsall 1.3m; compared to Cambridge (Central) at around 11m
Hopefully Northampton will get more destinations - it deserves them.
 
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NSE

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I just discovered that Cambridge has a Bristol service ( https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G00841/2026-10-05/detailed ) - using my new speed league table https://koyli.github.io/rail-speed/ (I posted earlier today https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/uk-rail-speed-league-new-site.307830/)

It's the longest distance service to Cambridge (251 route miles Bristol to Stansted - average speed 47.9mph) - but only 125 miles as the crow flies (average speed 24.0mph!)

Services to the west/north from Cambridge are really circuitous - to Brum as the crow flies averages 32 mph, although route miles basis it's a respectable (ish) 50mph. Pretty poor really.
Is this the once a day from Bristol and nothing in reverse?
 

35B

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Long distance services to the north are indeed very low - because there are no direct routes. We know people in Cambridge travel north because the A14/A1(M) are very busy
I regularly drive on both those roads, so I know they’re busy. What I query is whether the traffic is from Cambridge, or whether it’s to “the north”. The A14 is the main trunk route out of East Anglia and it also takes northbound traffic off the M11. The A1M is also busy, but not made much busier by the A14.

I then see “the north” being used as a destination. I can only assume that this is because you don’t actually have experience of northern England and realise that, for this purpose, the term is meaningless. It covers a sweeping band from Chester to Newcastle, as far from each other as they are from Cambridge.

The comparisons between unfairly well served destinations are then, with two very minor exceptions, to places on long standing inter regional corridors that benefit not on their own merits, but because of accidents of geography*.

So, in short, we have meaningless data used to argue for something wholly undefined because other people get it.

Now, if there were some understanding demonstrated of where Cambridge has links with in “the north”, and how that might join up to form useable demand**, I could be interested.

* - to note, my local station (Grantham) is one such
** - please don’t just say switch the EMR service to Cambridge. Living in Grantham, it’s quicker (and often cheaper) to go to Sheffield via Doncaster rather than use the direct service.
 

Magdalia

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We do - we know first four weeks was 100,000; second four weeks was 210,000; and third four weeks 340,000.
13 million isn’t speculative - it’s the figure Greater Anglia provided us.

I have not seen these numbers, apart from the first 4 weeks at Cambridge South. Do you have a published source that you can quote please?

And who is "us"?

We know people in Cambridge travel north because the A14/A1(M) are very busy
One does not follow from the other. The A14 is busy, but that doesn't mean that it is busy with Cambridge people travelling north. The A14 is busy with people travelling to and from places all over Norfolk and Suffolk, and it is also busy with short distance journeys coming into Cambridge from surrounding towns and villages, especially commuting journeys. Many local journeys also use the A14 because it is the most convenient way to cross the River Cam. Long distance travel between Cambridge and "the north" is a very small part of the total.

Not if you’re one of the 40% of Cambridge residents without a car
I am one of those, but I look at the big picture for the Cambridge economy, not just how it affects me.

One fundamental misunderstanding in your argument is that what is driving rail growth in Cambridge is more Cambridge people wanting to get out. It isn't. What is driving rail growth in Cambridge is people from outside wanting to get in, especially for work. A key number is that Cambridge has a population of about 150k but more than 200k jobs. The Cambridge economy only functions and grows with inbound commuting, some of it by rail and some of it by road. Much of the road commuting is on the A14.

The figures we are using as of today are 327,000.
Much of the population growth is Cambourne, Northstowe and Eddington. All of them are near to the A14 but not near a railway station.


The suppressed demand northwards must be enormous
If there is suppressed demand northwards, then the major component of it is commuting journeys into Cambridge, not a few Cambridge people making long distance journeys to "the north".

Suppressed demand can only be exploited by increasing capacity. Look at a map. There is only one northwards way in and out of East Anglia, which is the line from Ely to Peterborough. There are no spare train paths, the only quick way (within 5 years) to increase capacity is longer trains, and changing the timetable so that more of them run to/from Cambridge (which means fewer to elsewhere, such as Ipswich and Norwich). Look at the numbers for Ely-Cambridge: it is only just outside the top ten of station to station flows where both are outside London, achieved by running 8 cars trains to/from the Fens. The quick win for increasing capacity is a decent commuting service from Peterborough and March that will allow people from all over Fenland to use it for commuting to work in Cambridge. That doesn't just require longer trains, it also requires a service where it is possible to arrive in Cambridge before 0800 and depart after 2100.

A pint in the Old Ticket Office? Or just a sportsman’s bet? I predict that come 2030/31 we will likely be looking at:
Cambridge (Central) circa 14.1m;
Cambridge North circa 2m
Cambridge South 3.9m

I’ll take that bet.
I'm not a betting person but I'm confident that Bald Rick will be the winner here. Even if we accept the 13m estimate for current annual usage, getting to 20m is an increase of 54%, implying a 9% per year increase over the 5 year period. Cambridge is growing rapidly, but not that rapidly. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the 2030/31 total for the three stations is above 16m.
 

dk1

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Having lived in Cambridge for a decade in the 90s/00s, with family connections in the North West:

- Yes there were Liverpool to Harwich trains, which I used frequently between Manchester and Cambridge. But they were so slow, you could often arrive an hour earlier by getting off at Sheffield and travelling via Doncaster to Peterborough, and joining the direct train that had left an hour before and wandered off to Leicester.

- Travelling to e.g. the Lake District used to be tolerable by changing at Nuneaton: horribly slow on a Sprinter from Cambridge to Nuneaton and then fast up the WCML. But then the WCML timetable was changed and next-to-nothing stopped at Nuneaton anymore, making it better to go via Birmingham and adding an hour to the journey.

- The most direct route to the ECML northbound would have been via Huntingdon, if they hadn't turned that disused line into a busway.

- ECML connections at Peterborough, for Newcastle etc., had their ups and downs, due to how many ECML trains stopped there and how well they connected. Still better than getting to the North West though.

All a bit depressing really.
Connectivity at Nuneaton has improved again in the last couple of years.
 

William3000

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I have not seen these numbers, apart from the first 4 weeks at Cambridge South. Do you have a published source that you can quote please?

And who is "us"?


One does not follow from the other. The A14 is busy, but that doesn't mean that it is busy with Cambridge people travelling north. The A14 is busy with people travelling to and from places all over Norfolk and Suffolk, and it is also busy with short distance journeys coming into Cambridge from surrounding towns and villages, especially commuting journeys. Many local journeys also use the A14 because it is the most convenient way to cross the River Cam. Long distance travel between Cambridge and "the north" is a very small part of the total.


I am one of those, but I look at the big picture for the Cambridge economy, not just how it affects me.

One fundamental misunderstanding in your argument is that what is driving rail growth in Cambridge is more Cambridge people wanting to get out. It isn't. What is driving rail growth in Cambridge is people from outside wanting to get in, especially for work. A key number is that Cambridge has a population of about 150k but more than 200k jobs. The Cambridge economy only functions and grows with inbound commuting, some of it by rail and some of it by road. Much of the road commuting is on the A14.


Much of the population growth is Cambourne, Northstowe and Eddington. All of them are near to the A14 but not near a railway station.



If there is suppressed demand northwards, then the major component of it is commuting journeys into Cambridge, not a few Cambridge people making long distance journeys to "the north".

Suppressed demand can only be exploited by increasing capacity. Look at a map. There is only one northwards way in and out of East Anglia, which is the line from Ely to Peterborough. There are no spare train paths, the only quick way (within 5 years) to increase capacity is longer trains, and changing the timetable so that more of them run to/from Cambridge (which means fewer to elsewhere, such as Ipswich and Norwich). Look at the numbers for Ely-Cambridge: it is only just outside the top ten of station to station flows where both are outside London, achieved by running 8 cars trains to/from the Fens. The quick win for increasing capacity is a decent commuting service from Peterborough and March that will allow people from all over Fenland to use it for commuting to work in Cambridge. That doesn't just require longer trains, it also requires a service where it is possible to arrive in Cambridge before 0800 and depart after 2100.




I'm not a betting person but I'm confident that Bald Rick will be the winner here. Even if we accept the 13m estimate for current annual usage, getting to 20m is an increase of 54%, implying a 9% per year increase over the 5 year period. Cambridge is growing rapidly, but not that rapidly. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the 2030/31 total for the three stations is above 16m.
So 2024/25 was 10.6m at Cambridge and 1.5m at Cambridge North so 12.1m. The figures for 2025/26 I’m expecting to be: 11.1m at Cambridge and 1.7m at Cambridge North. 2026/27 I think 11.6m at Cambridge, 1.8m at Cambridge North and 2.4m at Cambridge South (June to March); 2027/28 I think 12.1m at Cambridge, 2m at Cambridge North and 3.9m at Cambridge South.

Figures are from Greater Anglia.

I think the major growth in numbers will come from Cambridge South. It’s incredibly busy in the morning and evening peaks and was as I understand predicted to have 1.8m journeys per year but if initially indications are correct it will more than double that estimate. I’ve been travelling through Cambridge station every day for the past 12 years and anecdotally it feels (no science here, just my gut feeling) like we are now getting to the levels we were in 2019 before the pandemic. I take all your points about the key driver being people trying to get into Cambridge and of course that’s the priority. I just know from the many journeys I and many colleagues have to take for meetings in Leeds and Manchester the poor quality of service. I would estimate that 80% of those travelling to Manchester travel via London, and travelling to Leeds connections aren’t that great at Stevenage or Peterborough. Cambridge as we know has the highest passenger numbers of any station outside London, south of Liverpool aside from Birmingham New Street, Gatwick Airport, Reading, and Brighton. It’s hugely important city and that’s set to grow following the creation of the Development Corporation on top of the circa 50,000 homes planned in the Greater Cambridge Local Plan. These are massive numbers and require serious thought as to how one of the UK’s increasingly important cities will be connected to other parts of the country. In the short term half hourly trains to Peterborough and better connections there would be a start. I know the mayor has talked about trying to speed up these services but with 75mph limits and a circuitous route of three sides of a pentagon it seem hard to imagine with pathing getting Cambridge to Peterborough to much under 45 mins. I’ve always thought a through service to Leeds or Newcastle would really open things up. In your view does there come a point in terms of population size of Greater Cambridge and passenger numbers that you change your position? If Greater Cambridge’s population is to double say by 2060 then it would be reasonable to assume passenger numbers will double - and possibly increase by more as new services like EWR and stations along the Newmarket line are added. At what point does Cambridge become so important - the size of Bristol for example that a lack of through services becomes impossible to ignore?
 

Palmerston

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I'm not a betting person but I'm confident that Bald Rick will be the winner here. Even if we accept the 13m estimate for current annual usage, getting to 20m is an increase of 54%, implying a 9% per year increase over the 5 year period. Cambridge is growing rapidly, but not that rapidly. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the 2030/31 total for the three stations is above 16m.
Is it worth a whole new thread? It can get updated at least once a year so we can see who looks on track to win. 20m feels fairly punchy, but not impossible.
 

A S Leib

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In your view does there come a point in terms of population size of Greater Cambridge and passenger numbers that you change your position?
It's competing with London for paths*, and Cambridge isn't likely to have a larger population than that.

*though even with current infrastructure, diverting via Cambridge would add on ~50 minutes, and 70 minutes extra and cheaper advance tickets works for Euston – Birmingham – Scotland services (knowing the latter were bolted together, and with Birmingham having a much larger population and more connections). Maybe some King's Cross services could have been diverted via Cambridge had HS2's eastern leg not been cancelled and with Ely sorted.
 

fishwomp

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Is it worth a whole new thread? It can get updated at least once a year so we can see who looks on track to win. 20m feels fairly punchy, but not impossible.
I'd love to see a betting book (low stake, sportsmans or charity stakes only) channel on this forum. I've a crisp £10 that says East West Rail gets used for XC or WCML diversions before October 2032. Sadly I didn't contemplate that GWR might do it - that sounded too outrageous at the time.
 

317 forever

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Agree that Northampton is poorly connected. Seemed to get a fairly raw deal from Beeching era cuts.

Walsall is really a part of the West Midlands conurbation so it's not too surprising you need to go via Birmingham or Wolverhampton.
To reach the north from Walsall, we can also go via Rugeley Trent Valley.
 

Magdalia

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I think the major growth in numbers will come from Cambridge South.
I think you are being very over optimistic here. Usage will be higher than the Network Rail estimate, but they won't be out by such a large amount.

I look at demand from the Biomedical Campus, and it isn't growing a lot in the next 5 years. Current projects are:

  • AstraZeneca (AZ) are nearing completion on the Rosalind Franklin building, but this is mainly for existing staff being relocated from offices near the main station. AZ have another building in planning but no commitment to build it yet.
  • Discovery Drive will be built out by 2031 but mainly for GSK with employees relocating from Stevenage, hopefully some of these will use the train.
  • The new Children's Hospital and Cancer Hospital do not have approved funding yet, the chances of either of these being completed by 2030/31 are diminishing.
Big numbers at Cambridge South are going to be at least partly people switching from the main station, not new traffic. I actually expect a dip in usage at the old station because of this (by way of comparison, I shall be looking out for how much Chelmsford falls in 2025/26 as a result of the opening of Beaulieu Park). Also, the only big development near the old station likely to complete before 2031 is Botanic Place.

At Cambridge North proposals to expand at the Business Park and the Science Park are still in early stages of consultation, much growth there before 2031 is unlikely.

In addition to employment, employees need houses to live in. Coming up between now and 2031 only Waterbeach is likely to deliver big numbers for the railway. Northstowe might generate some traffic between North and South, but that should be netted out for a Cambridge total.

I also look at supply. From the south side there is plenty of capacity, but it is difficult to exploit. From the north side, there is plenty of demand but capacity is constrained. Rail travel from/to the north can't expand that much without new capacity, and there isn't going to be much of that before 2031.

I take all your points about the key driver being people trying to get into Cambridge and of course that’s the priority.

In the short term half hourly trains to Peterborough and better connections there would be a start.

stations along the Newmarket line are added.
In the short/medium term, increasing capacity on the March/Peterborough and Newmarket/Bury St Edmunds services should be the priority. They are the routes that have capacity constraints for inbound commuting. What's needed is a timetable for Ely-Peterborough that prioritises Cambridge, and redoubling Cambridge-Newmarket, preferably with electrification and through trains to/from London. That would also help to accelerate the opening of Cambridge East.

Cambridge as we know has the highest passenger numbers of any station outside London, south of Liverpool aside from Birmingham New Street, Gatwick Airport, Reading, and Brighton.
Brighton is the most relevant here, because it illustrates the impact of geography. In the case of Brighton that's the South Downs and the sea. Brighton's high usage comes almost entirely from its one route through the South Downs to/from London (including Gatwick), and local traffic on the East and West Coastways. For Cambridge, the Fens are a geographical barrier too: there is only one rail route across the Fens and its capacity is limited.



In your view does there come a point in terms of population size of Greater Cambridge and passenger numbers that you change your position?
What will prompt me to reassess my position is delivery of East West Rail, especially if there is a Bletchley North Curve too.
 

Bald Rick

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A pint in the Old Ticket Office?

Yep! (Mine’s a pint of Veuve Clicquot 8-) )


So 2024/25 was 10.6m at Cambridge and 1.5m at Cambridge North so 12.1m. The figures for 2025/26 I’m expecting to be: 11.1m at Cambridge and 1.7m at Cambridge North. 2026/27 I think 11.6m at Cambridge, 1.8m at Cambridge North and 2.4m at Cambridge South (June to March); 2027/28 I think 12.1m at Cambridge, 2m at Cambridge North and 3.9m at Cambridge South.

Those are your guesses though. There is going to be a material transfer of people from Cambridge to Cambridge South, although that might come through as much reduced growth at the former.

I’ll be more than happy to pay out on the bet, but very confident I won’t be. I’m also collecting on my first bet on these pages, made 15 years ago, in 2030.
 

TT-ONR-NRN

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What are the reasons EMR's Liverpool-Norwich train goes to Norwich and not Cambridge? If I had to guess it's a combination of lack of paths, service would be overwhelmed and the need to provide something fast/more capacity for Ely-Norwich.
You might equally well ask why the XC service goes to Cambridge rather than Norwich! Ultimately, they overlap, and (from experience) the EMR service is far from rapid
Norwich is considerably less of a tourist destination though, despite having very busy commuter passenger flows. I think if it were down to me I would indeed divert the EMR service to Cambridge, and have an hourly Peterborough Norwich GA service instead, fast from Ely as now -- calling only at Thetford and possibly Brandon.
 

ClivePage

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Well Luton and Luton Airport Parkway seem to have between them about 8 million passengers a year. There used to be regular services to Leicester, Derby, and Sheffield, and some trains through to Leeds. And on summer Saturdays a train all the way to York and Scarborough. But now (except for the odd train around midnight or in the early hours of the morning) nothing goes beyond Kettering or Corby. I'm sure there used to be lots of airport passengers from the Midlands using trains to get to and from the Luton Airport, but that has been severely discouraged in recent years by the need to change trains at Kettering and maybe also at Leicester. I think that's one of the benefits of privatisation.
 

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