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The cost of the welfare state - challenges posed and solutions

Broucek

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Unless the water company CEOs or tech barons have broken any specific laws (which specify jail sentences before they committed them), they can't be sent to jail. The more that jail is threatened for CEOs the harder and more expensive it will get to recruit such people.
Thank you. Came here to say this. There are some jailed CEOs - for example Shaun Thaxter from Indivior (related to drug safety). But, as you say, they have to have broken laws *as they were at the time* (as opposed to how they perhaps should have been drafted). Simply "taking too much risk" isn't worthy of jail. And it's hard to set laws that would see executives jailed - intent is hard to prove and mostly it's poor judgement rather than deliberate intent that leads to corporate failure (and most executives have significant shareholdings in their employer and therefore "skin in the game").

And often the consequences are not played out in the public domain. The individual agrees to "go quietly" having lost £millions in variable pay and is quietly ignored when the head-hunters draw up a shortlist for senior vacancies. I personally came accross one Board Director who couldn't get future appoinrments due to a high profile perceived governance failure (rather harshly in my professional view)

[edited for typos]
 
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Tetchytyke

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The more that jail is threatened for CEOs the harder and more expensive it will get to recruit such people.
I think we're going to need a smaller violin. Won't someone think of the CEOs. Does anyone have a GoFundMe for them?

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And it's hard to set laws that would see executives jailed - intent is hard to prove and mostly it's poor judgement rather than deliberate intent that leads to corporate failure (and most executives have significant shareholdings in their employer and therefore "skin in the game").
Executives don't have genuine skin in the game, though, that's the issue. They have sold their share options and ridden off into the sunset long before the effluence meets the ventilation device.

Maybe it is "poor judgement" rather than fraudulent intent (I'm sceptical, most of these corporate failures have more in common with a crypto pump-and-dump than anything else), but there are no consequences- criminal or otherwise- for this "poor judgement." Fred Goodwin- remember him- is receiving a pension of £600,000 a year from RBS despite the fact that his "poor judgement" cost us taxpayers ten billion quid. He got to bang his senior colleague whilst running the bank into the ground and waltz off into the sunset without even the merest financial scratch against his name. Iceland jailed the executives who destroyed Kaupthing, we couldn't even take his knighthood off him without a five year battle!

Thames Water is the same, the executives at Macquarie who ran the company into the ground are long gone and it's now the likes of the UK university pension scheme who are taking the hit. And if we just let Thames Water go bust then the taxpayer is on the hook for reimbursing those executives. Make it make sense.

The UK fully subscribes to the Thatcherite principle of privatising profit and nationalising loss. It's all about the private sector free market until they lose money, at which point the executives are tripping over each other in their rush to get the begging bowl out. Look at the railways, it was all about the glory of private entrepreneurship when they were making money and Ann Gloag was spending millions of pounds of our money on her birthday parties at her Scottish castle, but when Covid happened she couldn't get her snout in the trough fast enough. Go Ahead defrauded the taxpayer of £80 million and the only sanction was for Go Ahead- and not the executives responsible- to pay the money back. If I embezzled £80 million I'd not be given the option of just paying it back and calling it quits.

But sure, some poor guy with no legs who treats himself to a BMW with his PIP is the real villain.
 
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Cdd89

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But sure, some poor guy with no legs who treats himself to a BMW with his PIP is the real villain.
Something can be worth bringing under control without needing to cast society into some needless distinction between "good guys" and "villains". Emotion has no place in public policy, IMO.
 

GusB

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Not only that, certain big employers like Tesco don't offer full-time work at all (at least at entry level). Pretty much anyone who's been working in a Tesco supermarket for less than 15 years now will be on a part-time contract.
It was happening 30 years ago when I had my first supermarket job. While there were a few full-timers on the shop floor (not counting supervisor or department managers), most people were on part-time contracts. I started out on 16 hours and regularly worked 38.5 (15 minutes short of the 39 that would have entitled me to time-and-a-third for Saturdays, funnily enough...).

For someone to work full-time hours these days they often need to have two or more jobs. That's all fine and dandy if you're able to get fixed shift patterns and are able to slot them together, but employers often require staff to be available across the full range of operating hours and they're generally not too happy if you explain that the rota they've given you clashes with your other job.

This is where "job creation" type schemes might help. if the Council is down a few cleaners at a time it's probably not that great an issue. We get cleaner streets and people in this position get better self esteem.
What's this obsession with getting people to clean streets, bogs and parks? I'm not denigrating anyone who does these jobs, but it'd be far better to find someone an employment placement that matches their skills and could possibly lead to further qualifications.

I think that may be worth accepting, though how we make people accept it is an interesting challenge. But think of it this way - there's no real reason I in IT (say) should be paid more than a bricky in terms of effort, but I am. Taxing me and subsidising the bricky just evens out some unfairness (as well as building more much needed houses :) ).
A bricklayer is a skilled tradesperson and probably earns more than you think. Or are you just assuming that they get paid less than you because they're working class?

A perfectly normal family is one who brings up civil, well educated children and which behaves civilly in public e.g. not effing and blinding at their offspring all the way round Asda (and don't pretend that stereotype doesn't exist, as if you go to Asda on any Saturday morning there will be at least one such family). We shouldn't pretend that there are an awful lot of families living in Council estates to whom this does not apply. Plenty who it does of course who often have a hard time of things as a result!
Funny you should mention the word "stereotype", because that's all you have to go on. How do you know that the family you see in Asda lives on a council estate? Uncivilised behaviour in public isn't limited to the "underclass". There are plenty of "perfectly normal families" who live on council estates and who would also be appalled at such behaviour.

I don't agree. Council estates as a concept have been proven not to work for years. That's why interspersing social housing among owned estates is pretty much the only system used these days, except a few edge cases.
Citation, please. While there are clear examples of bad housing estates, they're not all no-go hellholes. I've been to plenty of places where tenants take pride in their houses and you would hardly know the difference between them and houses that were owner-occupied. In any case, just because a house has been purchased from the council doesn't mean that it's actually occupied by the owner; quite often these places are buy-to-let where the tenants tend to be a bit more transient and aren't as invested in keeping the place looking as nice.

That's the problem and you can't write it off. In middle class areas of owner occupation these things aren't rife, in social housing they very often are. This shouldn't just be accepted - we need to find ways to prevent it, which is going to be a combination of education, improving prospects but also stronger policing and strict punishment.
Addiction isn't limited to council estates and to suggest that it simply doesn't happen in middle-class areas is just rubbish; they just have middle-class addictions instead. As for anti-social behaviour, it's certainly not the preserve of the lower classes; Bullingdon club, anyone?

Most processes can be circumvented or avoided but that doesn't stop us implementing them. The amount of people who dodge car insurance for example is eye-watering - but we don't abandon it. In this case, I am sure with the threat of significant sanctions there will be a deterrent. Perhaps the use of the card can be limited to the main supermarkets so close tabs can be maintained on what such individuals are buying - AI could be used to do a 100% review of all purchases.
Good grief! This is proper Big Brother stuff. Is there anything else that you'd like to restrict? Now that people can't relax with a beer, maybe they'll just have a wee biscuit or a cake to go with their cuppa. Oh no, you've banned them too, along with the cuppa.

What sanctions are you proposing and to deter what, exactly? Someone trying to buy a bottle of beer? Who is going to police it? Oh, AI...

How much is this AI system going to cost? It won't be cheap, that's for sure. Who is going to pay for DWP staff to manually carry out reviews when the AI system inevitably hallucinates and someone ends up being sanctioned for buying a product that isn't on the banned list?

Your idea of limiting the card to "main supermarkets" is also ludicrous. Are we just talking about the big four (Asda, Morrison's, Sainsbury's and Tesco)? Are people to be permitted to shop at Aldi or Lidl, where goods are a bit cheaper? Is the Co-op allowed? What happens if your nearest "main shop" is 20 miles away? Does this card permit online shopping? Is it accepted on public transport?

It would get them out and about so probably a good thing?
Wow. How patronising can you get? Of course, in your world everyone is glued firmly to the couch watching Sky on their massive tellies.

Real life is going to work and getting paid. Not getting free handouts paid by others who are going to work.
You'd better tell those whose only income is the state pension, then. :)

Have you considered the possibility that some people do voluntary work while they're between jobs, or perhaps can't do paid work because they're caring for elderly or sick relatives? In the first instance it's not paid work, but it's still contributing to society. In the latter case people can claim carers' allowance, but it's a pittance; it very much is contributing to society and actually saves the state a fortune (an absolute bargain at maximum of £2.47 per hour).

I think it's you who needs to get out and about. I mean in the real world, not cloud cuckoo land.

Something can be worth bringing under control without needing to cast society into some needless distinction between "good guys" and "villains". Emotion has no place in public policy, IMO.
Agreed, but the problem is that too many people are willing to apply the "villain" tag without having any grasp of reality. If it was that easy to get people into work, we'd have done it by now. Until we can get people re-trained or get the medical treatment that people need to get into the workplace, it's simply not viable to cut, cut and cut some more. Cutting someone's benefit by 30% isn't going to magically find them a job; if anything it'll actually make finding a job more difficult as folk have less money to spend on things like internet access and travel costs.

Unfortunately, it's very difficult to keep emotion out of the equation when people like Kemi Badenoch come up with hare-brained ideas and others rub their hands with glee and say that it's not enough!
 

Tetchytyke

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Emotion has no place in public policy, IMO.
Agreed, alas the politicians haven't got the memo. It's always workers versus shirkers, "hard working people" against those who "want something for nothing." I'm joking but not joking when I ask what about those of us who aren't hard workers, what about those of us who do the least we can get away with at work?

There is an argument about whether benefits such as PIP should be means tested. I don't think so, in the same way I think the NHS should not be means tested. But there is an argument to be had.

But instead of that we got all the nonsense about people on PIP getting "free BMWs" and we have politicians deliberately conflating PIP (which is a benefit paid according to disability) with benefits which are only paid to people not in work. Not to mention the likes of Streeting opining, without any evidence, that the real issue is that neurodiversity and mental ill-health is being over-diagnosed because middle class people want to cheat at exams.

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If it was that easy to get people into work, we'd have done it by now.
The awkward truth is that some people are unemployable. You can hit them with as many sticks as you want but nobody in their right mind would ever employ them. So why the desire to come up with ever-more ridiculous and convoluted ways to hit them with sticks? What's the point of it all?

I'm increasingly of the opinion that a universal basic income is the way to go. The amount of bureaucracy you could cut in one fell swoop would save tens of billions. You could get rid of 80% of the entire DWP in one go, not to mention all the private contractors like Serco or ATOS or APM who are paid billions to achieve bugger all.
 
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GusB

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The awkward truth is that some people are unemployable. You can hit them with as many sticks as you want but nobody in their right mind would ever employ them. So why the desire to come up with ever-more ridiculous and convoluted ways to hit them with sticks? What's the point of it all?
Being the woolly leftie that I am, I really don't want to agree with you on this point but I will reluctantly concede. Having said that, I'd ask whether it is the system that has failed rather than the individual. Why are people unemployable? If it's because of some undiagnosed or untreated health condition or disability we should be getting to the bottom of that before writing anyone off, more for the sake of the individual rather than with a view to getting people back to work. This does require a rather more joined-up approach.

I once worked with a lad who had gone from job to job and never lasted very long at any of them. He was slower to learn, but give him a repetitive task and he'd end up being as good, if not better, than anyone else. He was always on time and would do anything he could to help. His downfall was that he couldn't handle the customer-facing element of the job and was deemed not flexible enough for the business; I suspect it was a deliberate attempt to set him up to fail. I don't know whether he had been diagnosed with any learning disability, but today we'd probably be looking at case of discrimination on those grounds. It was heart-breaking to see someone get thrown under a bus like that and I dread to think what became of him after that.

I agree that using a bigger stick only shoves the problem elsewhere. You run the risk of increased homelessness and all the negative outcomes that brings and there will be more crime as people are forced to steal in order to survive. How is potentially forcing someone into having a criminal record going to improve their employment prospects?!

I'm increasingly of the opinion that a universal basic income is the way to go. The amount of bureaucracy you could cut in one fell swoop would save tens of billions. You could get rid of 80% of the entire DWP in one go, not to mention all the private contractors like Serco or ATOS or APM who are paid billions to achieve bugger all.
UBI would be beneficial in many ways, especially in a world where "gig economy" jobs are more prevalent. It'd be useful in areas where there are a lot of seasonal jobs but employers can't recruit local staff because of the impermanent nature of the work, much of it relying on immigrant labour instead. It also might encourage a few unscrupulous employers to buck up their ideas; those who impose rubbish terms and conditions will soon find themselves with no staff and no business. It'd also allow people to take some time out to re-retrain if they decide to a have a career change. The system is largely in place; with a few tweaks the Universal Credit system could be adapted to allow UBI. Arguably it could be improved now by having a proper taper, rather than docking a large lump from someone's benefits long after the money they've earned has been spent.

As for those parasites that you mentioned, I'd also dearly love to see the back of Serco etc. Sometimes individuals only need an up-to-date CV and bit of encouragement to boost confidence and they're able to find work on their own; "JobCo" claims a nice job outcome fee and a pat on the back for getting another one off the dole back into work, while those who are more difficult to employ go back to square one feeling that they've failed (again). There's no reason why the DWP couldn't bring this in-house and utilise the skills of its own staff, most of whom are now reduced to performing a fortnightly box-ticking exercise in a building that's largely empty and costs a fortune to heat! There's so many more things that could be done with that empty space; joined-up thinking clearly isn't one of them!
 

martin butler

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Trouble is a basic universal income would be manna from heaven, for those who feel that others should be made to suffer more, so that they can feel better about their own insecurities, the Right-wing media, and personalities would be queuing up to appear on GB News to complain about undeserving people getting help.
 

Snow1964

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There is an argument about whether benefits such as PIP should be means tested.

But instead of that we got all the nonsense about people on PIP getting "free BMWs" and we have politicians deliberately conflating PIP (which is a benefit paid according to disability)
Means testing is probably not right for something like PIP, but should be dependent on geography.

Totally reasonable that a person in a rural area might need a basic car (not a luxury one at taxpayers expense), but hard to justify giving PIP and a free bus pass to someone with good frequency accessible buses / trams etc. Getting both is unreasonable.

There needs to be more either / or with benefits (not both) where they are doing same function.

It's understood quite well. A lot of people are on longer term sickness benefits because the UK is a place with declining living and health care standards. You can't fix that with a stick. There are a lot of people with SAD (stress anxiety or depression)
Long term benefits are bad, and often done on a poorly thought through rolling basis. There is no real attempt to invest in people in sense of get them private health (when NHS doesn't have capacity), have the treatment and benefits stop.

Seems to be a policy allowing people to continue on waiting lists, continue paying benefits, instead of fixing the illness promptly and stopping benefits because fit to go back to work. Really needs to be more focus on anyone who hasn't done at least 35 years full time work getting them pay to work and paying tax.

This is true - there needs to be wholesale cuts to benefits across the board - but clearly the State Pension and WFA are seemingly untouchable.
The State pension needs to lose triple lock. But for those on new state pension (2016 on) there really ought to be no other benefits for first 5 years of pension age. If haven't done your 35 years then there should be more encouragement to continue working (even if it's part time) rather than topping up those who haven't saved enough for retirement.
 

Krokodil

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Being the woolly leftie that I am, I really don't want to agree with you on this point but I will reluctantly concede. Having said that, I'd ask whether it is the system that has failed rather than the individual. Why are people unemployable? If it's because of some undiagnosed or untreated health condition or disability we should be getting to the bottom of that before writing anyone off, more for the sake of the individual rather than with a view to getting people back to work. This does require a rather more joined-up approach.
If you look at petty criminals as an example of one part of the underclass, you'll find a high prevalence of Foetal Alcohol Syndrome.
 

martin butler

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If you look at petty criminals as an example of one part of the underclass, you'll find a high prevalence of Foetal Alcohol Syndrome.
When I was growing up, on a council estate, back when some did have a good reputation, in the middle 60's to early 70's, There were certain families, where you could almost guarantee the sons would follow their fathers (When they were not locked up) into a life of crime, and Daughters would often become single mothers with several kids, each by a different father,

See families who didn't value education, or community, are not likely to install those values in their kids, more often than not, the ones with half a brain left home, often to join up to learn a trade away from family pressure.
 

Tetchytyke

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Totally reasonable that a person in a rural area might need a basic car (not a luxury one at taxpayers expense), but hard to justify giving PIP and a free bus pass to someone with good frequency accessible buses / trams etc. Getting both is unreasonable.
People would likely just give up the bus pass, especially as the higher rates of PIP mobility element are really only awarded to people who can’t walk very far. A bus pass isn’t much use if you can’t make it to the bus stop.

As for the car thing, cheaper cars don’t necessarily cost the taxpayer less than more expensive cars. Motability lease costs are based on the anticipated depreciation of the vehicle not the initial purchase price; a nice car costs more to start with but sells for more afterwards. Some of the worst depreciation is seen on some of the more popular budget options like the Vauxhall Corsa.
 

Yew

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As for the car thing, cheaper cars don’t necessarily cost the taxpayer less than more expensive cars. Motability lease costs are based on the anticipated depreciation of the vehicle not the initial purchase price; a nice car costs more to start with but sells for more afterwards. Some of the worst depreciation is seen on some of the more popular budget options like the Vauxhall Corsa.
As someone who owns a large Citroen, that is very certainly true.
 

starlight73

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public transport can also be unusable for disabled people if it’s standing room only. Eg I’ve occasionally seen wheelchair users waiting for a bus, but it’s crush-loaded with standees. At that time the driver just carried on and they had to keep waiting. I have a non visible disability, but I almost always wait for the next tube/bus if it’s that crowded because of the difficulty in finding a seat. My record is over 1 hour waiting at West Brompton, trying to board a Mildmay line train in rush hour

(There are some areas of London which are not close to bus stops, never mind other parts of the country which feature regional bus roulette™.)

Not criticising anyone because it is an important discussion to have, just wanted to offer a viewpoint :)

And also the energy levels needed to use public transport, and ability to get to the nearest stop
 

Bletchleyite

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What's this obsession with getting people to clean streets, bogs and parks? I'm not denigrating anyone who does these jobs, but it'd be far better to find someone an employment placement that matches their skills and could possibly lead to further qualifications.

Absolutely - if there is a job, get them in it, training them if necessary. But we would also have to create some jobs, and this sort of job (which improves the public realm) can be created very easily.

A bricklayer is a skilled tradesperson and probably earns more than you think. Or are you just assuming that they get paid less than you because they're working class?

IT is overpaid compared to every other industry pretty much, even comparable stuff like engineering. Some trades are paid very well, yes, but the comparison is valid simply because of that "IT inflation" thing.

A quick AI based Google suggested around £20/hour for an employed bricklayer in the UK by the way. Contractors get more but they do in IT too. That's about £40K PA, and yes, I'm paid a fair whack more than that.
 

Bald Rick

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A quick AI based Google suggested around £20/hour for an employed bricklayer in the UK by the way. Contractors get more but they do in IT too. That's about £40K PA, and yes, I'm paid a fair whack more than that.

Trades earnings vary widely around the country. Round here you’ll be paying £400/day for a contract Brickie.
 

Bletchleyite

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Trades earnings vary widely around the country. Round here you’ll be paying £400/day for a contract Brickie.

And certain IT skills can command that or more.

I don't think it detracts from my overall point, though, which is that some jobs are paid more than others and that difference does not necessarily reflect how hard the work is - indeed often it does not.
 

Bald Rick

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And certain IT skills can command that or more.

I don't think it detracts from my overall point, though, which is that some jobs are paid more than others and that difference does not necessarily reflect how hard the work is - indeed often it does not.

Generally speaking pay is not about how hard the work is, but about how specialised / rare the skill/competence is.

And, of course, the definition of ‘hard work’ varies by individual!
 

Sorcerer

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I don't think it detracts from my overall point, though, which is that some jobs are paid more than others and that difference does not necessarily reflect how hard the work is - indeed often it does not.
Quite so. People nowadays might look at trades as a means of earning a decent wage but if everyone starts getting into them then you might well end up with a race to the bottom regardless of how back-breaking the work is. Forensic science is an actual real world example where the wages are low relative to the work required to get into it because there's more people wanting the job than there are vacancies available. Train drivers are a counterexample where the skillset is very specific and specialised and thus well paid despite not needing further education and the amount of people who apply for every vacancy.
 

Bletchleyite

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Generally speaking pay is not about how hard the work is, but about how specialised / rare the skill/competence is.

Indeed. And there is an argument that as that's a bit unfair it's not a bad thing that benefits redress the balance to some extent.

Care would probably be a better example than bricklaying. This is almost always paid at minimum and is without any doubt, both physically and mentally, much harder than a mid range IT role paying many times the sum.
 

Broucek

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Care would probably be a better example than bricklaying. This is almost always paid at minimum and is without any doubt, both physically and mentally, much harder than a mid range IT role paying many times the sum.
I work in pay.

Some skills attract a premium because they are not easy to acquire. Either because the aptitude required occurs rarely or because it takes a long time to acquire the relevant skills. In some cases, both (e.g. Doctors).

Pay levels can be lower or higher depending on the extent to which people wish to join a profession or industry (e.g. forensics is low as discussed above while tobacco pays high).

Pay is often higher if the industry has a high profit margin (e.g. luxury goods) or lower if margin is small (e.g. supermarkets). It is also impacted by the extent to which labour costs are a significant part of the cost base (e.g. pay is low in hospitality which is labour intensive)
 

Cdd89

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Indeed. And there is an argument that as that's a bit unfair it's not a bad thing that benefits redress the balance to some extent.

Care would probably be a better example than bricklaying. This is almost always paid at minimum and is without any doubt, both physically and mentally, much harder than a mid range IT role paying many times the sum.
Based on equivalent salaries at entry level, the market is telling us that we need more people working in IT and fewer people offering these services as carers/bricklayers.

IT work also doesn't need expensive training, I work in the sector and I got my first job (paying £30k in London in 2011) with zero computer science qualifications or courses, didn't even do an IT GCSE. Just playing around with computers from a young age which anyone could have done.

In relation to the effort disparity, that's already reflected in salaries for IT work which are reduced compared to what they would be if it were a physically and mentally exhausting role.
 

Class 317

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Good to see that Labour are tackling the burden placed on earners from the biggest benefit by modifying the triple lock.
 

JamieL

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Good to see that Labour are tackling the burden placed on earners from the biggest benefit by modifying the triple lock.
Yes, a bold decision. I am amazed a politician has grasped that nettle but Burnham has done so without hesitation.
 

Yew

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I'm not certain that I would have chosen average earnings as the one to get rid of though, 2.5% was the real cause of above inflation rises throughout the 2010s. I guess it means he must be backing wage growth as the leader for the next few years.
 

JamieL

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I'm not certain that I would have chosen average earnings as the one to get rid of though, 2.5% was the real cause of above inflation rises throughout the 2010s. I guess it means he must be backing wage growth as the leader for the next few years.
I suspect Burnham will be smart enough not to label this the "double lock" and they will call the package something new and catchy. This will allow for more political flexibility to raise and lower the pension in the future as well as defusing the downgrade accusations that will be leveled at them at the next election.
 

JamesT

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I'm not certain that I would have chosen average earnings as the one to get rid of though, 2.5% was the real cause of above inflation rises throughout the 2010s. I guess it means he must be backing wage growth as the leader for the next few years.
I don't think there's any chance of returning to that level of inflation any time soon. Even if they do manage to get back down to the 2% target, then it's only a 0.5% real terms increase which is probably manageable. The problem with adding in average earnings is it tends to give a double whammy. If you get a spike of inflation in year one, then employees will demand a matching payrise in year two to compensate, even if inflation has come back down. But those on the triple lock get both.
 

Broucek

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I don't think there's any chance of returning to that level of inflation any time soon. Even if they do manage to get back down to the 2% target, then it's only a 0.5% real terms increase which is probably manageable. The problem with adding in average earnings is it tends to give a double whammy. If you get a spike of inflation in year one, then employees will demand a matching payrise in year two to compensate, even if inflation has come back down. But those on the triple lock get both.
Yes - you'd hope someone in the Treasury would understand that. I don't understand why it's not just inflation...
 

JamesT

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Yes - you'd hope someone in the Treasury would understand that. I don't understand why it's not just inflation...
Once upon a time it was. But then you had 1999. Gordon Brown was Chancellor and inflation was only 1.1%. There were howls over the state pension rising by a mere 75p a week. Funnily enough, the following year's increase was £5 a week, well ahead of inflation.

But even though you could argue that if you're keeping up with inflation you're no worse off, perception is key. Politicians will do almost anything to avoid looking bad.
 

SuspectUsual

Established Member
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11 Jul 2018
Messages
6,861
I'm not certain that I would have chosen average earnings as the one to get rid of though, 2.5% was the real cause of above inflation rises throughout the 2010s. I guess it means he must be backing wage growth as the leader for the next few years.

It seems perverse to have an arbitrary number at all, and really it should just be CPI so buying power is maintained, but if you are going to have a number surely it should be the same one the bank use for the inflation target?

I've had a look at the base data and, stripping out 2021 and 2022 because of the Covid-related distortion and the two year suspension of the triple lock, and over those 14 years the highest feed into the triple lock has been:

Price inflation - 6
Earnings growth - 5
2.5% minimum - 3

To a base of 100.0 in 2010, the relative pension growth by 2026 is this:

Triple lock - 179.2
Removing price inflation - 162.8
Removing earnings growth - 170.3
Removing 2.5% minimum - 176.2
Just price inflation - 154.0

[EDIT]

The one thing that might be useful in selling this is some sort of pensioner-centric inflation measure, if such a thing could be calculated, for the optics as much as the numbers.
 

speedy1

Member
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1 Sep 2023
Messages
461
Location
Mossley
Anyone who discusses the state pension – especially how it affects the poorest – without discussing the fuller package of Housing Benefit, Attendance Allowance/PIP and Council Tax Benefit that the poorer or more disabled pensioners (can) claim is not discussing the full picture.

I know pensioners with some mild mobility issues and other ailments and no savings, who were on PIP when they reached pension age, so got a 10 year award of PIP (but would otherwise get Attendance Allowance quite likely) who get ~£2,500/mo total in benefits (state pension, housing benefit, council tax benefit, PIP, winter fuel payment) and that's with very very cheap rent, so nearly £2,000 in actual cash. And many don't spend it on their 'extra' needs - they refuse to pay for a cleaner, meal deliveries etc.

I wonder too if the proposed reduction in the triple lock will prompt pensioners to look to claim benefits they don't currently claim, and what the cost of that may be. A pensioner eligible for but not currently claiming Attendance Allowance is a decent saving to the treasury: up to nearly £6,000 per annum
 

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