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Freight growth to 2040 - how might this be achieved)

matt99001

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Possibly more intermodal paths and large manufacturing facilities which need large quantities of bulk materials.

Rolls-Royce SMR and the Agratas battery plant in Somerset are considering rail freight.

And perhaps better use of the Channel Tunnel for transporting goods too!
 
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coppercapped

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The simple answer would be road-pricing. If hauliers were forced to pay the full costs of road construction, maintenance, pollution, congestion, policing, bridge-bashing and other accidents they would be less-able to undercut the railways for freight rates. When Ernest Marples launched the motorway network he was careful to insist that there would be no toll-booths (as seen in other countries) so as to help his friends in the road haulage industry grab vast amounts of traffic from BR. Perhaps that policy should now be reversed.
Oh dear, this is incorrect in many ways so some fact checking is in order.

In common with many other countries discussions about the construction of specialised ‘motor roads’ started in the UK in the 1920s. Specialised ‘autostrada’, ‘autobahnen’ and ‘freeways’ were built from the late 1920s and 1930s in Italy, Germany and the USA among others but it wasn’t until the passing of the ‘Special Roads Act’ in 1949 that construction of ‘Motorways’ became possible because certain classes of traffic could be banned - herds of cattle, flocks of sheep and bicycles were not considered compatible with motor traffic…

The Preston By-pass was the first stretch of motorway to be built, construction commenced in 1956 and it was opened in December 1958 although planning began in 1937. The ‘Ross Spur’ was built between 1958 and 1962

For all the conspiracy theorists it should be pointed out that that demon personified, Ernest Marples, had nothing whatsoever to do with any of this. He became Transport Minister in October 1959 long after all these and many of the other motorways had already been planned and indeed after the company he ran (Marples Ridgway) had completed the Chiswick Flyover.

It is also interesting to note that it was Clement Attlee's Labour government of holy memory which proposed and passed the Special Roads Act in 1949, just after it had nationalised the railways.

As for the toll booths - this is nonsense. Only those countries, for example France and Italy, which gave concessions to private companies for the construction and operation of motor roads have toll booths in one form or another to collect the fees for using the roads. Motor roads in Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany are paid for out of taxes and are free at the point of use for motorists[1]. There are no toll booths.

[1] In the meantime Germany now charges tolls for lorries because so much of the traffic is international, Roumania to Antwerp for example.
 

Oxfordblues

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Oh dear, this is incorrect in many ways so some fact checking is in order.
Thank you coppercapped. I stand corrected and apologise for the inaccuracies.

But I stand by my assertion that road hauliers should be made to pay the full costs of the use of the roads, even if this is passed-on to consumers. They've had it far too easy for far too long.
 

Bald Rick

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But I stand by my assertion that road hauliers should be made to pay the full costs of the use of the roads, even if this is passed-on to consumers. They've had it far too easy for far too long.

I would be very surprised if the total amount paid by road hauilers in direct taxes on ‘motoring’ (duty on diesel & road tax) was less than the entire highways budget of all the highways authorities in the country.
 

coppercapped

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Possibly more intermodal paths and large manufacturing facilities which need large quantities of bulk materials.

Rolls-Royce SMR and the Agratas battery plant in Somerset are considering rail freight.

And perhaps better use of the Channel Tunnel for transporting goods too!
The trouble with this argument is that most of the facilities in your first paragraph are in China.

Many goods already come through the Channel Tunnel...!

Thank you coppercapped. I stand corrected and apologise for the inaccuracies.

But I stand by my assertion that road hauliers should be made to pay the full costs of the use of the roads, even if this is passed-on to consumers. They've had it far too easy for far too long.

How do you know what the ‘full costs’ of the use of the roads are? Are you referring to the trunk road network alone or all the roads in the country? And what sort of vehicles are you referring to: HGVs; mid-sized lorries; refuse vehicles; local delivery trucks and vans or all of these?

To get some idea of the size of the issues a quick on-line search shows that there are some 625,000 HGVs registered in the UK and some 5 million vans. In comparison there are about 35 million cars.

All of these have a part in the running of the economy, but what is important for your argument is how you allocate costs transparently and fairly to these disparate types of vehicle, their numbers and uses. Indeed, what are the ‘costs’? Bridge bashes are covered by the vehicle operators’ insurance and congestion is a natural result of movement. Look at films of herds of wildebeest passing through a narrow valley or cattle passing through a farm gate. Or football spectators arriving or departing from a stadium.

They all have to queue. The basic issue is that paths or roads or railways can be infinitely[1] long but they can’t be infinitely wide. Congestion goes with movement - and the costs are borne by those moving.

Trying to get an idea of the costs involved UK Government Departmental accounting reported via HM Treasury shows that in 2024/25 the public sector’s spending on transport included about £6.5 billion on national roads and £6.4 billion on local roads, producing roughly £12.9 billion of recurring annual road expenditure. There are other expenditures under other headings which may or may not be classified as ‘road spending’ so if we say that those I have missed are half of the above figure the total costs of the road network cannot exceed some £18-20 billion per year.

On the other hand the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) states that
Fuel duties are levied on purchases of petrol, diesel and a variety of other fuels. They represent a significant source of revenue for government. In 2025-26, we expect fuel duties to raise £24 billion. That would represent 1.9 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to £835 per household and 0.8 per cent of national income.

Fuel duty is levied per unit of fuel purchased and is included in the price paid for petrol, diesel and other fuels used in vehicles or for heating. The rate depends on the type of fuel: etc., etc.
See: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/fuel-duties/

So, fuel duty alone covers the costs of the roads. However identifying the amount of fuel duty paid solely by HGVs will require longer than I am prepared to spend but don’t forget that those 5 million vans also pay a lot. On the basis of these figures it is difficult to answer the question accurately of whether the road transport industry covers all its costs - but these figures show that on fuel duty alone[2] it is very likely that it does so. If it doesn’t then the difference is marginal.

[1] For some value of ‘infinite’…

[2] VAT is also paid on fuel and the road hauliers also pay NI, income tax, insurance tax, road tax and so on which also contribute to the pot.
 
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HSTEd

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I would be very surprised if the total amount paid by road hauilers in direct taxes on ‘motoring’ (duty on diesel & road tax) was less than the entire highways budget of all the highways authorities in the country.
The last time I tried to calculate this, I came to the conclusion that fuel duty, fuel VAT and the HGV Levy was somewhat more than the budget of National Highways - in other words HGVs certainly pay the full costs of the trunk road system in England.
 

mickey

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That’s really not ‘very easy’ in most cases. Two reasons:

1) the end destination of the boxes landed isn’t suitable for rail. Eg anything landed at London Gateway heading inside or close to the M25 (which a lot of it is).

2) there isn’t capacity for more intermodal trains. E.g. the route via Ely, and the route from London Gateway to anywhere.
I didn’t say it wouldn’t need work for capacity upgrades! But more infrastructure will be needed regardless, whether it’s road or rail, so just prioritise the latter. Make it a condition of development for whichever port wants to expand - one or other of them will see it as a commercial advantage to agree. It also can’t be beyond total imagination for container trains to be longer either, even if they need to be double-headed and passing loops extended. Or even just for them not to run half-empty as they often do.

Agreed about London-bound traffic from Gateway, but there are still large flows by road from ports that take boxes halfway across the country and really shouldn’t do. I used to have stats for this - they’re well out of date now (was about 15 years ago) but some ports were shockingly low for long-distance % by rail. I’d deliberately set the targets as % of anything moving more than (for example) 50 miles.

Where there’s a will, there’s a way. If we wanted to, we could.
 

Bald Rick

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Make it a condition of development for whichever port wants to expand - one or other of them will see it as a commercial advantage to agree.

London Gateway and Felixstowe both already have consent for their expansion and are building now. Southampton is in development, and part of that facilitates longer trains.
 

matt99001

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The trouble with this argument is that most of the facilities in your first paragraph are in China.

Many goods already come through the Channel Tunnel.
Both those facilities are in the UK, i was also thinking of industries that are already here that use road for transport.

And not many goods do come through the tunnel, it is known that that the tunnel hasn't been utilised as much as originally planned and its only DB Cargo who use with with 3-4 trains per day
 

coppercapped

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Both those facilities are in the UK, i was also thinking of industries that are already here that use road for transport.

And not many goods do come through the tunnel, it is known that that the tunnel hasn't been utilised as much as originally planned and its only DB Cargo who use with with 3-4 trains per day

The way I parsed your post was that your first paragraph stated:
Possibly more intermodal paths and large manufacturing facilities which need large quantities of bulk materials.
As I wrote, many of these large scale plants are now in China and they supply the whole world. I’m struggling to think of large manufacturing plants in the UK which need trainload quantities of bulk materials. And even if they did bulk materials are very cost sensitive.

The second paragraph stated:
Rolls-Royce SMR and the Agratas battery plant in Somerset are considering rail freight.
It was not clear - at least to me - that you were including these possibilities in the first paragraph. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Is there any information available concerning the quantities of materials which will be received at and subsequently shipped to customers from these plants? As far as I know Rolls-Royce is working the supply of some four reactors for a go/no-do decision in 2029. So don't expect any freight on rail in the immediate future!
Modern freight trains have to be long or heavy (or both!) to be economic so will these plants fill a 750m long train? How often? How many destinations will they have to serve?

I can’t see wagonload freight being the answer because of the cost of double handling and containers are unlikely because of their high tare weight so the question is whether the traffic will be suitable for swap bodies.

And perhaps better use of the Channel Tunnel for transporting goods too!

The Channel Tunnel, as I wrote, already carries large quantities of freight. It’s in lorries carried on Le Shuttle so maybe it doesn’t count?!
 
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HSTEd

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I think, rather than going for wagonload freight with shunting, it would be cheaper to go for containers and simply swap containers between trains.

But I think the only way to get a freight system that can cover its costs would be to spend a huge amount of capital on Chunnel gauge or better freight railways.
I could see getting a lot of business on a Lorry/Car Shuttle that ran between the M11/M25 junction and Calais, skipping over the Thames Crossing and making the journey long enough to qualify as a break. I think it'd probably drive a lot of the remaining Channel ferries out of the market.

But that kind of expenditure seems very unlikely.
 
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Harpo

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I suspect FOCs would say they need capacity, faster paths, lower costs, and suspect NR would say they need capacity & faster freight trains.

Government will facilitate this by writing strategies, setting targets and er, that’s it.
 
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squingo44

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What brand new freight-only railways could be built to have the most effect? Something that gets freight off the mildmay line would make a huge difference, that line needs 100% of its capacity dedicated to passenger service at this point.
 

Harpo

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Something that gets freight off the mildmay line would make a huge difference, that line needs 100% of its capacity dedicated to passenger service at this point.
That’s probably the TfL view too, but in reality it’s the North London line with Mildmay services part of the mix.

Mayoral support and lobbying for the overdue Ely upgrades might help.
 

The Planner

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What brand new freight-only railways could be built to have the most effect? Something that gets freight off the mildmay line would make a huge difference, that line needs 100% of its capacity dedicated to passenger service at this point.
None.
 

Dr Hoo

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What brand new freight-only railways could be built to have the most effect? Something that gets freight off the mildmay line would make a huge difference, that line needs 100% of its capacity dedicated to passenger service at this point.
A ‘straight bat’ answer could be a new tunnel from North Thamesside, picking up a branch from the GEML (Felixstowe) and then delivering freights to all of the ECML (upgraded Hertford Loop), Midland Main Line south of Radlett and WCML. Possibly a further South > West link from the WCML to East West Rail.

The Channel Tunnel might be linked in with another Thames Tunnel to connect, together with an East-West tunnel under Redhill.

All unimaginably expensive of course.
 

AHBD

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The last time I tried to calculate this, I came to the conclusion that fuel duty, fuel VAT and the HGV Levy was somewhat more than the budget of National Highways - in other words HGVs certainly pay the full costs of the trunk road system in England.
What about external costs such as the aftermath of collisions, ie immediate hospital costs, ongoing treatment costa, the human cost of such injuries, deaths etc ..
 

HSTEd

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What about external costs such as the aftermath of collisions, ie immediate hospital costs, ongoing treatment costa, the human cost of such injuries, deaths etc ..
HGV collisions cause approximately 175 fatalities in other vehicles/on foot per annum.
That is approximately 11% of total road fatalities.

However, externalities are notoriously hard to disentangle, so I'm not sure how feasible it is to do that without an academic study that is far beyond my resources. The railway does have some pretty serious externalities on its own back, things like suicide fatalities are the obvious example, plus pollution from the diesel engine designs from the 1960s-1980s still in use. We are now in a position where the average freight locomotive has considerably higher pollution emissions per unit energy delivered than a typical HGV on the road today.
 

Brewer66

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To get this level of increase in tonnage - when the railway is already dominant in what it does best, hauling heavy bulk goods (there is probably only one emerging opportunity - Steel Scrap to South Wales), it is going have to do what it already does better by lowering it's costs or offer something new to the market.

Doing better is sweating it's existing assets. Longer Loops is one option, the other is faster transit times which allows the same assets to do more. For example, if you can get from Daventry to Coatbridge in 6 hours, that rake of container flats could do 2 trips per day rather than 1. Faster entrances and exits to loops may help, but the recent highspeed trials with Class 93s is probably the way forward.

Something new to the market is either;
a) Distribution Centre to Market, i.e. A38 corridor to City Centres
b) Unaccompanied road trailers from Eastern Europe through the tunnel to East London. This is already happening into Germany.

How these get the push from Government that encourages further investment, I don't know. Hopefully this isn't just a headline and there will be some action behind it.
 

furnessvale

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We are now in a position where the average freight locomotive has considerably higher pollution emissions per unit energy delivered than a typical HGV on the road today.
I would be interested to see that figure if you have it.

I would also like to see the figure that actually matters........emissions per tonne/km of freight moved. I know some locos can appear dirty, especially from a cold start, but you have to consider that one loco can be replacing 75+ HGVs in bulk haulage.
 

squingo44

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lol
A ‘straight bat’ answer could be a new tunnel from North Thamesside, picking up a branch from the GEML (Felixstowe) and then delivering freights to all of the ECML (upgraded Hertford Loop), Midland Main Line south of Radlett and WCML. Possibly a further South > West link from the WCML to East West Rail.

The Channel Tunnel might be linked in with another Thames Tunnel to connect, together with an East-West tunnel under Redhill.

All unimaginably expensive of course.
Yeah but how necessary is it going to be to hit the ambitious targets set out for freight?
To get this level of increase in tonnage - when the railway is already dominant in what it does best, hauling heavy bulk goods (there is probably only one emerging opportunity - Steel Scrap to South Wales), it is going have to do what it already does better by lowering it's costs or offer something new to the market.

Doing better is sweating it's existing assets. Longer Loops is one option, the other is faster transit times which allows the same assets to do more. For example, if you can get from Daventry to Coatbridge in 6 hours, that rake of container flats could do 2 trips per day rather than 1. Faster entrances and exits to loops may help, but the recent highspeed trials with Class 93s is probably the way forward.

Something new to the market is either;
a) Distribution Centre to Market, i.e. A38 corridor to City Centres
b) Unaccompanied road trailers from Eastern Europe through the tunnel to East London. This is already happening into Germany.

How these get the push from Government that encourages further investment, I don't know. Hopefully this isn't just a headline and there will be some action behind it.
Sounds like new railways might be needed for this
 

AHBD

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HGV collisions cause approximately 175 fatalities in other vehicles/on foot per annum.
That is approximately 11% of total road fatalities.

However, externalities are notoriously hard to disentangle, so I'm not sure how feasible it is to do that without an academic study that is far beyond my resources.
Ignoring them creates a bias agaibst railways.
The railway does have some . on its own back, things like suicide fatalities are the obvious example,

I dont think its fair to include suicides.

Unfair to rail to include those trying to die while ignoring road users killed whilst expecting to live..

plus pollution from the diesel engine designs from the 1960s-1980s still in use. We are now in a position where the average freight locomotive has considerably higher pollution emissions per unit energy delivered than a typical HGV on the road today.
But thats very new.



Also old and new engined HGVs are going to near to people more of the time I would think, so again this seems unfair.
 

HSTEd

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Ignoring them creates a bias agaibst railways.


I dont think its fair to include suicides.

Unfair to rail to include those trying to die while ignoring road users killed whilst expecting to live..
I ignored neither, I merely noted the calculation problem.

But a lot of research indicates that suicide is often impulsive to the point that a lot of people who are deprived easy access to means will not spend effort obtaining one.
Consequently, some portion of the impacts associated with those deaths should be assigned to the railway because a substantial portion of those people would live if it did not exist.

But thats very new.
It's been like that for quite a while - ever since Adblue vehicles became common.
The bulk of the railfreight fleet is using two stroke EMD diesels or very old British diesel engines, all of which predate modern emissions controls. Class 66 engines could only meet Euro Stage IIIA after all.

The railway industry has taken a lot of trouble to do things like recover engines from wrecked or written off locomotives to use under "grandfather rights" principles. So I can't see that changing any time soon.

The HGV fleet is considerably younger, there are very few HGVs on the road today that were on the road in 2000.
The average HGV vehicle is only a decade old (see DfT statistics), which mean the bulk will be Euro 5 V and 6 VI.
Also old and new engined HGVs are going to near to people more of the time I would think, so again this seems unfair.
Something like two thirds of HGV mileage in England occurs on the Strategic Road Network, which comprising motorways and long distance dual carriageways is predominantly in a rural environment.

We don't tend to build railways that bypass major urban areas at the end of the day!

EDIT:
Edited to correct using 5 and 6 instead of the correct V and VI (luckily this split between cars and goods vehicle standards ends next year with Euro 7)
 
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matt99001

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Pollution from the diesel engine designs from the 1960s-1980s still in use. We are now in a position where the average freight locomotive has considerably higher pollution emissions per unit energy delivered than a typical HGV on the road today.
Really disappointing and out of touch opinion expressed here.

As others have pointed out, using rail reduces 70 HGV movements per train. So please give your head a wobble!
 

furnessvale

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It's been like that for quite a while - ever since Adblue vehicles became common.

Something like two thirds of HGV mileage in England occurs on the Strategic Road Network, which comprising motorways and long distance dual carriageways is predominantly in a rural environment.
1. Around 20% of HGVs have been found with illegally fitted adblue emulators which enable the operator to avoid the expense of using the stuff. A "minor" side effect is that it increases emissions by a factor of 20, far more than the benefits to the environment we gain from honest operators.

2. The fact that two thirds of HGV mileage is on such roads, demonstrates that the potential for road to rail transfer should not be exhausted if we ever get a government willing to encourage it.
 

Bald Rick

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1. Around 20% of HGVs have been found with illegally fitted adblue emulators which enable the operator to avoid the expense of using the stuff. A "minor" side effect is that it increases emissions by a factor of 20, far more than the benefits to the environment we gain from honest operators.

That’s astonishing; is there some research about that?
 

JohnofWessex

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There is clearly an issue about enforcement and safety in the Road Haulage Industry with incidents ranging from 'unfortunate' to downright criminal

Clearly if enforcement was stepped up and operators closed that might have an impact on costs to the consumer making rail less unattractive
 

Dr Hoo

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There is clearly an issue about enforcement and safety in the Road Haulage Industry with incidents ranging from 'unfortunate' to downright criminal

Clearly if enforcement was stepped up and operators closed that might have an impact on costs to the consumer making rail less unattractive
Fair enough but it’s worth bearing in mind that most casualties involving HGVs do not occur on trunk roads, rather they tend to happen in urban areas with delivery legs rather than on long hauls. It is far from clear that increasing rail freight will make much of a dent in this. One only has to stand near Landor Street container terminal or by a city aggregates terminal to realise this.
 

furnessvale

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That’s astonishing; is there some research about that?
If you google adblue emulator vosa you will get some information from 2018 when the problem was first identified.

VOSA promised a crackdown but information then becomes sketchy as to any success in that crackdown. Obviously HGVs are not presenting for their MOT with the adblue emulator, tachograph magnet, or any other cheat device left in place for the test to find.
 

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