They probably serve as commuter trains because that's what the demand is. Manchester to Prestatyn, Rhyl etc alone probably does not justify a regular express service (certainly not enough to justify a Castlefield path), but as a semi fast where there are a large number of station pairs it adds up to something worth running.
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TfW potential future rolling stock procurements
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
It's not just about how far it is, it's about the nature of usage too. The service is used primarily for overlapping short distance journeys with a significant turnover of passengers at Chester. It isn't primarily used for long through journeys. Even the idea that lots of people would do Manchester to Holyhead for the ferry is long gone, with most of those passengers heading for the airport instead (or driving to the ferry and taking their car on it).
It's more Liverpool-Norwich (regional) than Liverpool-London (IC).
A definition that leaves nothing on XC, MML or GWML as InterCity, and ditto any WCMLs with multiple calls south of Crewe MFK or LNERs with multiple calls south of York. It’s a proper slippery slope.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I disagree. MML, GWML, LNER and Avanti services are primarily used for medium to long distance journeys to/from London. This is very different from the TfW North Wales service.
XC is a bit mixed. Arguably these days it's (in classic German terms) more IR than IC. But the North Wales Coast, if you ignore "misuse" in the West Midlands, is hugely less intercity in usage than XC's Voyager service (their Class 170 services are without any doubt regional expresses).
Yes, there are Reading and MKC commuters but these are not the primary intended users of the service. They basically use spare capacity.
Try travelling north of Kettering or south from Derby without using InterCity services. Ditto GWML west of Reading or East from Bristol Parkway or Bath. Avanti may have a London focus but it’s Scotland via Birminghams are clearly not a to/from London north of Brum.
It would be a tragedy to see TfW’s bold IC-style service downgraded through sloppy definitions.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Birmingham-London is a bit of an exception with regard to the "intercityness" of Avanti, and to be fair I'm sure I read somewhere that Hendy was murmuring about considering a more integrated style of service on that route (which I guess might mean more of it operated by WMT recognising its more local role than most of Avanti).
The rest of it e.g. local journeys on intercity routes that lack local services because Beeching closed all the local stations (e.g. Wigan-Warrington and the likes) is de-minimis to the overall service.
The North Wales Coast has, aside from the London trains* and the 1-2 times a day Gerald which was always just a political project, never had an intercity service in even vaguely recent years. Even the 37 hauled services were not in intercity style, they were tatty old stock with old 37s - fun for enthusiasts but definitely regional. Manchester-Holyhead is a regional express. Liverpool-Llandudno is the local stopping service, albeit one with reasonable end to end demand. The intercity style service is Manchester-Cardiff, and this is all about getting it new intercity style rolling stock!
* My personal view would be that I'd cut Birmingham-Holyhead back to Chester and replace it with the London service running hourly all day and evening rather than that being laid on top in random hours, with the Manchester doing the request stops, but TfW might shout about the political nature of that. If they must have it, two of these paths could terminate at Chester and the "Gerald" run in its place.
The Mk4s are going to need replacing. TfW may have acquired them cheap, but they probably aren't cheap to keep running. Their availability is poor and too often get substituted by a 2- or 3-car 197. When the temperature goes above 30 degrees TfW pull them all from service.
The Welsh government isn't awash with money, but without a plan for more stock sometime in the 2030s they will be faced with some pretty stark choices.
Personally unless im in First Class I prefer a 197 over a MK4.
However I do agree that there needs to be a consistent fleet on the Manchester-South Wales. Currently one hour you have a train with First Class and Intercity style seating and the other hour a DMU without first class (aside from the Standard Plus section on certain services which was withdrawn before it got started). It must confuse passengers who are not in the know like us.
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I think the problem with the Marches is it can be used as an intercity service with people travelling from Swansea and Cardiff to Manchester but is also used for local journeys by the majority of passengers, with people getting on at the likes of Ludlow and Craven Arms and going to Shrewsbury for example. Or people travelling from Abergavenny and Cwmbran to either Hereford or Cardiff. There are definitely long distance passengers many of whom go all the way from Cardiff to Manchester or change at Crewe for other long distance service but id say 75% is local traffic.
TFW are trying to an extent to cater for this with 197s stopping at most stations one hour whilst the MK4 is more limited stop.
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I agree. Availability is still poor 2 or 3 years down the line. The last few weeks at least one diagram has been subbed for a 197 regularly and sometimes 2 diagrams. The quicker they get replaced the better IMO.
And the replacement should then cover all Manchester-Swansea services with the 197s replacing the 153s and 230s for example.
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They would need to consider the Stadler offerings, from my admittedly old experiences of TFW stations they suffer from many different platform heights, so something that can comply with the step free access requirements must be a front runner.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I wonder if Alstom could be persuaded to do a tri-mode version of that TPE 5 car 110mph unit? If so that would probably be perfect near enough as is for most of the TfW longer distance services such as Manchester-Cardiff. It might even be worth considering ETCSing them and giving Aberystwyth a proper intercity quality service with the Coast a connection.
Peter Sarf
Established Member
Nice idea but introduces another fleet type to look after and then send down the Cambrian (with 197s and lets face it 158 maybe) !.
(but then when did that sort of thought figure).
Flirts straying well away from South Wales is probably too much of a stretch so another unit type is also same problem. I think 197s will take over more services away from South Wales (ideal for portion working) with extra Flirts taking over some South Wales duties.
Does not address the loss of intercity mk4 comfort/ambience though. But then again when I was last at Crewe I saw the carnage the 67s + Mk4s cause. Two cancellations of Mk4s ex Manchester during the day (iirc) and the second was covered by the following service to Cardiff being 2car (presumably vice 2+3 car ?). Perhaps re-introduce that third class on the subset of existing 197s (what was it called Business second ?).
I wonder if hesitation and subsequent trying of another fleet type will be caused by the cost of Flirts ?.
Or, dare I say it, more 398s would not be another fleet type !.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I believe the lack of a wheelchair space and accessible toilet in that class was the barrier to it being introduced. Though other trains have first class without either of those things so perhaps TfW's lawyers just got nervous.
I feel unlikely, going with Alstom would likely require a new maintenance depot being established somewhere as I don't think TFW would be best pleased having their flagship units maintained in longsight. Though never say never.
I also feel like addding some discontinuous electrification on the route to provide charging opportunities might end up being more politically viable than fitting an engine into any new trains.
Surely those other trains are older though, and fitted before current equalities law was in place.
TfW’s peculiar logistics of maintaining vehicles away from places where a majority of daytime services start and finish, exacerbates their fleet reliability issues with defective vehicles needing to be swapped mid-journey.
EveningStarr
Member
The technology promised in the Adessia programme is exactly what TfW need. Discontinuous electrification, but lots of large gaps becomes a more workable situation for bi-modes when the battery range is up to 90 miles at 100mph (according to TPE in the Green Signals podcast interview). Not to mention the level boarding benefits they would bring. But how would the Adessias compare to the FLIRTs? Would it be better just to get another batch of 756s or similar to work longer-distance services too, seeing as TfW are already familiar with the fleet?
Inevitably, with any fleet expansion, TfW will need to have more maintenance and storage sidings regardless of what fleet they get, as currently there simply isn't the track space available to cope. They're not just replacing existing stock, they're increasing the number of vehicles too.
There are several ex-industrial sites around Wales close to the railway, which could be reused as sidings, maintenance sheds or even heavy overhaul facilities. Lots of investment needed of course. For example, the old bitumen plant site in Caerphilly was once rail connected and has had many housing projects rejected on various grounds. This could be an ideal FLIRT facility to free up space at Canton for overnight parking, servicing and potentially heavier maintenance too.
Inevitably, with any fleet expansion, TfW will need to have more maintenance and storage sidings regardless of what fleet they get, as currently there simply isn't the track space available to cope. They're not just replacing existing stock, they're increasing the number of vehicles too.
There are several ex-industrial sites around Wales close to the railway, which could be reused as sidings, maintenance sheds or even heavy overhaul facilities. Lots of investment needed of course. For example, the old bitumen plant site in Caerphilly was once rail connected and has had many housing projects rejected on various grounds. This could be an ideal FLIRT facility to free up space at Canton for overnight parking, servicing and potentially heavier maintenance too.
Snow1964
Established Member
The Stadler Flirts are fairly modular, it would be perfectly possible to have 5 or 6 or 7 car versions, even ones with double power car. And of course could have variations such as a power car with 2 diesels and 2 battery packs instead of 4 engines. Internally could be fitted out more as a regional or outer suburban configuration than the current units. I suspect it is also possible to lengthen existing units too.
Though TPE are installing chargers at the end even though 90 miles in most cases should be enough to get there and back, so I'd imagine if TfW did get stock with the same range they wouldn't want to go more than about 50-60 miles off-wire.
Elecman
Established Member
Best would be giving Alstom the Chester depot and buildings new depot for the 197s somewhere else
Personally I think Chester is a little far off route. Finding somewhere in Crewe to maintain them, or perhaps some former railway land in South Wales would be my pick. Possibly leaning more towards the latter. Would allow Welsh government to brag about job creation in Wales.
Where are the current MK4 sets maintained at present?
Arriva Train Care Crewe and 67s at DB Crewe
So surely Crewe would be the logical place to maintain the future replacement stock too then
It depends on the number of new trains taken on and if those Depots have capacity to take them on. I doubt with any new fleet order TFW will want to keep the current setup of the Mk4's that only do Cardiff - Manchester with the 7 sets they have. It will likely at least be Swansea - Manchester, and hopefully to become a consistent hourly product, meaning at least 10-12 sets required.
Topological
Established Member
This is my opinion too
I also never see enough people in first class to justify the loss of capacity and, more importantly, the fact that platforming a first-class carriage makes a standard class carriage unplatformed at many of the stops.
The aim should be to either (a) reduce journey times or (b) increase the number of stops at a given journey time. Both of these mean better acceleration and quicker boarding. The 197s deliver much better as a quick compare of the 08:50, 09:50 and 10:50 from Cardiff to Manchester would attest. My preference would be to give more of the towns on the route an hourly service to Cardiff and Manchester, rather than bringing journey times down.
If ordering stock then acceleration, reduced dwell and ideally an ability to spend the whole day running, would be on my list. The fact the Mk4 introduction required splitting services at Cardiff Central (a station known for problems because of terminating trains) says it all.
I understand the nostalgia of the Mk4 and the desire to pretend that there is a premier TfW route, but there is nothing about the Marches that commands the sort of train you get on Cardiff to London, Chester to London, or indeed many of the Holyhead to London.
Someone does need to build a bigger 197 depot though. Trying to fit them into a depot that used to service half the number of trains is leading to some pretty shocking maintenance queues.
I think the fact that it is unreliable what train will appear with first class puts people off buying a ticket. I for one wouldn't book a first class ticket if I had to check in advance what train had 1st class, potentially only have it booked for 1 direction of my journey (if say when I return, it is a booked 197) and even if after all of that, it's not uncommon for my train to be substituted for a 2 car 197 anyway, and have to pay 1st class prices for the privilege of standing Cardiff to Manchester. If TFW had a uniform fleet for the line, that was reliable, and could also attract growth, then there might be a much higher demand for 1st class fares
Topological
Established Member
I think that is true.
However, I would also say that the wider populace is better served by using the length of the train for capacity rather than the luxury of a few seats.
I have booked first today because I am happy enough to claim the money back on the tickets if there is a unit substitution. However, the fact I got an advance ticket so close to departure suggests that there are not many taking my stance. I suspect a lot more do indeed not buy first class in case a first class train does not come.
Worth remembering that there are 5 Mk4 diagrams to cover from 7 sets. So having the booked first class should be doable.
Snow1964
Established Member
To be fair some people are prepared to pay bit more for bit more space, a better view, and to avoid being with noisy kids etc. But when I say a bit more, I mean the old 50% more, not double or triple
But this is a problem of consistency, if First Class is going to be offered on a route, then it needs to be consistent standard on every service. The current might not be there once we have sold a ticket for it approach is just wrong. Exceptionally not available is understandable, regularly and randomly isn't
And if it's not, need to add First Class to the trains that regularly substitute
Topological
Established Member
I paid £6 more to get to Manchester in first and yet the carriage is still mostly empty.
You can get an on board upgrade for £21, which is much less than a 50% premium on most tickets. Again the carriage is still mostly empty.
Maybe people are willing to pay, but the evidence is somewhat limited.
Meanwhile the rest of the train is very full and now is where people chance sitting in first because there is unlikely to be any action taken between Wilmslow and Piccadilly.
It’s only a ‘loss’ of capacity in the world of rigidly fixed formations.
I’m certainly not yearning for a return to locos but flexibility of size and formation means that first/standard doesn’t have to be a zero sum game, something HST demonstrated in a multiple unit formation.
Topological
Established Member
Well, if TfW want to stick a 6th Mk4 onto the set then it would have been used on this morning's 1W11 and probably on the 16:30 and 18:30 south. However, that is because the train works as a commuter train for Manchester. I do not know what happens with Cardiff as I am never commuting there.
Generally speaking, standard class is much more flexible, as is having the ability to split trains West of Swansea where the 5 carriages are not needed.
I do understand there is a love of locomotive-hauled stock, but today reminded me why it is not a panacea. The carriages lurch forwards and backwards in a way none of the underfloor engined units I have used this summer did. (I drove all of my Manchester trips so did not use 1W11, but it was a 197 most of the time anyway)
Part of the new / future Class 777 trials recently awarded relate to Wrexham-Bidston-(Liverpool Loop). I believe part of one of the workstreams is understanding how the crewing of these works. Could well see Merseyrail stock operating TfW services - but in any event, it is hoped that this solution will allow the older rolling stock to be removed and comparatively soon. Extension to Liverpool is a bonus.
One 777 will be fitted with toilets during the trial too.
The other significant element here for TfW is Chester - if the DC electrification can be removed south of Hooton, this gives greater platform flexibility at Chester (not just limited to Platform 7). Will be interesting to see whether the Merseyrail services (on battery) can go beyond Chester (Warrington/Crewe?)
Reason I mention here is that it obviously could impact on the future TfW fleet - and free up/release existing units if successful.
One 777 will be fitted with toilets during the trial too.
The other significant element here for TfW is Chester - if the DC electrification can be removed south of Hooton, this gives greater platform flexibility at Chester (not just limited to Platform 7). Will be interesting to see whether the Merseyrail services (on battery) can go beyond Chester (Warrington/Crewe?)
Reason I mention here is that it obviously could impact on the future TfW fleet - and free up/release existing units if successful.