Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[Mikey C]

They are focused on Paris Bordeaux and Paris Nantes with a depot buildout in Bordeaux

Having travelled extensively in western France last month, it's the local trains which need competition, more than the TGV ones, but there's no money in them...

 

[signed]

Having travelled extensively in western France last month, it's the local trains which need competition, more than the TGV ones, but there's no money in them...

Having lived on that side of the country, this is where the competition need to happen

The service given compared to the demand is absolutely atrocious and means trains are going sold out in a pinch or going to skyrocket prices

Rennes especially is the worst offender

Issue is capacity, Montparnasse is well known to be a s** show on busy days, Rennes is already bursting to the point 2 trains on the same track had to be implemented

I wholly agree that we need more than 3 ICs but sadly yeah no money

 

[Snow1964]

Virgin exploring possibility of stopping International trains at other UK stations

A spokeswoman said: "We have recently been awarded track access on London St Pancras Highspeed and will be bringing investment and new skilled jobs to the Temple Mills depot in East London."

She stressed further: "Virgin's ambition extends beyond its initial launch plans and we've been actively engaging with stakeholders to explore future expansion.

"Virgin is looking forward to exploring additional stops, including Stratford International."

The company will also consider whether its trains should stop at Ebbsfleet and Ashford in Kent.

Sir Stephen first proposed international trains stopping at Stratford when he was chairman of Newham planning committee in the late 1980s.

In recent years, he has stepped up his calls for such a development as St Pancras Internationalhas struggled to cope with passenger numbers.

Sir Richard Branson's Virgin to 'explore' stopping trains to France at Stratford in east London

‘It's a big and fast growing commercial opportunity,’ says East Ham MP Sir Stephen Timms pushing the case for a Stratford International stop

uk.news.yahoo.com

 

[Sorcerer]

Virgin exploring possibility of stopping International trains at other UK stations

Sir Richard Branson's Virgin to 'explore' stopping trains to France at Stratford in east London

‘It's a big and fast growing commercial opportunity,’ says East Ham MP Sir Stephen Timms pushing the case for a Stratford International stop

uk.news.yahoo.com

As usual I don't expect this to come to fruition because of the cost of border security and checks needed at each intermediate station, though oddly enough Stratford might actually have the best catchment of the three intermediates as a major parkway station in east London rather than a rural Kent station despite having never received an international service in it's life. If Virgin can make it work then it'll genuinely give them one over on Eurostar despite being the underdog competitor.

 

[Snow1964]

As usual I don't expect this to come to fruition because of the cost of border security and checks needed at each intermediate station, .

One thing, I am not yet clear on, is who pays for the Border security, is it an infrequent user, the operator with most station calls, or the station owner. Would it actually be Virgin's problem to arrange Border staff, or someone elses problem.

I realise the station owner would be able to charge a usage fee, and pass on a cost, but are they able to dictate who calls, if an Operator has been granted track access on a route through the station.

 

[zwk500]

One thing, I am not yet clear on, is who pays for the Border security, is it an infrequent user, the operator with most station calls, or the station owner. Would it actually be Virgin's problem to arrange Border staff, or someone elses problem.

I realise the station owner would be able to charge a usage fee, and pass on a cost, but are they able to dictate who calls, if an Operator has been granted track access on a route through the station.

From the HS1 Network Statement:https://stpancras-highspeed.com/our-company/regulatory/regulatory-docs/

Station Access Charges
Train Operators wishing to stop at Stations along the HS1 route are required to enter into a Station Access Agreement (for each relevant Station). This provides the TOC with rights to stop at the defined Station and sets out the conditions of access and relevant charges. The applicable charges for services stopping at a Station are the Long-Term Charge ("LTC") and Qualifying Expenditure ("Qx").

Long Term Charge ("LTC")
LTC covers expected expenditure on asset repair and renewal activities at Stations over a 40 year horizon. The principle is that over 40 years, the LTC income will be sufficient to fund the necessary expenditure on these activities. LTC is a fixed annual amount 26 indexed annually by RPI. LTC for each Station is apportioned between the TOCs using the Station based on a combination of vehicle departures and the relative size of the international, domestic and common areas at the Station.

Qualifying Expenditure ("Qx")
Qx covers the station operating and maintenance expenditure incurred by TOCs (e.g. costs associated with maintenance, station staff, cleaning, security and utilities).
Qx is determined separately for each Station each year using a transparent best estimates process through which costs are estimated by the station operator and agreed with the TOCs. Payments are based on the annual best estimate with a wash-up every six months to reflect the difference between estimated and actual costs.
The costs are apportioned between the TOCs using the Station based on a combination of vehicle departures (in relation to Common Zone QX) and allocation by methods that are fair and equitable including by reference to relative size of each zone and the level of services provided within each zone.

So, if I'm reading it right - The security and immigration controls would be apportioned between all TOCs using the international facilities, "by methods that are fair and equitable" - although one would assume vehicle departures to be used as a benchmark or component of the formula.

Worth noting that London St Pancras Highspeed (LSPH, formerly HS1, and before that LCR) owns the concession for both the tracks and stations.

 

[Sorcerer]

So in this case Virgin would fronting the costs of Stratford International facilities? I think this would have to be an all-or-nothing then. If the cost of doing it for a trial to see how popular it is ends up being the same as just going all in from the beginning then you might as well try to maximise catchment, though my understanding isn't quite so sharp here. Stratford might be a bit of a white elephant but it arguably has the best potential of the three intermediates.

 

[TheGrew]

I would have also thought that Stratford would have the smallest time penalty for stopping at in regards to deceleration and acceleration times.

 

[Mikey C]

It would look a bit ridiculous though if another London station became the second stop, when the 2 Kent stops (which would add something genuinely useful) lay vacant, especially when the infrastructure is already there.

Ashford is the obvious one, as currently people in East Kent have to take a ridiculous journey back into London on domestic HS1 trains to take the Eurostar back out again. PLUS, it would also encourage trade and tourist links between East Kent and Northern France. Lille to Canterbury, Maidstone, Rye or Hastings via a change at Ashford.

 

[Bishops]

Ashford is the obvious one, as currently people in East Kent have to take a ridiculous journey back into London on domestic HS1 trains to take the Eurostar back out again. PLUS, it would also encourage trade and tourist links between East Kent and Northern France. Lille to Canterbury, Maidstone, Rye or Hastings via a change at Ashford.

I suppose Eurostar could then start stopping there again if Virgin did do Stratford. Why did they stop in the first place? I cant quite remember? Was it low usage?

 

[TheGrew]

Yep, low usage. I think it will be interesting to see how the increased competition dynamic shifts things.
Currently, Eurostar is very much focused on the business traveller market. If Virgin starts 'eating their lunch ', I could see both trying to appeal increasingly to leisure travellers to fill trains. Where Ebbsfleet and Ashford start to make more sense.
As an aside I have just checked Citymapper's jounrey times from Canary Wharf to St Pancras and Stratford International, and they were pretty similar.

 

[Sorcerer]

It would look a bit ridiculous though if another London station became the second stop, when the 2 Kent stops (which would add something genuinely useful) lay vacant, especially when the infrastructure is already there.

Ashford is the obvious one, as currently people in East Kent have to take a ridiculous journey back into London on domestic HS1 trains to take the Eurostar back out again. PLUS, it would also encourage trade and tourist links between East Kent and Northern France. Lille to Canterbury, Maidstone, Rye or Hastings via a change at Ashford.

Ashford is the better choice between the Kent stations but it's still only a rural station and doesn't justify limited stops for the cost of upkeeping border checks. Unless the UK joins the Schengen Area this will be a major hurdle in stations beyond dense urban centres.

 

[zwk500]

Ashford is the better choice between the Kent stations but it's still only a rural station and doesn't justify limited stops for the cost of upkeeping border checks. Unless the UK joins the Schengen Area this will be a major hurdle in stations beyond dense urban centres.

Worth considering though that according to the HS1 Network statement, Ashford's costs are approximately 1/3rd that of those for Ebbsfleet and Stratford International

Fee	St Pancras	Stratford International	Ebbsfleet International	Ashford International
Annual Qualifying Expenditure (QX)	£31.0m	£5.2m	£5.4m	£2.6m
Annual Long Term Charge (LTC)	£5.8m	£1.3m	£1.5m	£0.6m

(estimate of charge as of 2025/26)

The QX is the charge to cover day-to-day operating expenses of areas shared by operators at a station, the LTC is representing the long-term cost of maintenance and eventual need for replacement. Both charges are proportionate to the number of vehicle departures operated and the sizes of the respective zones utilised by each operator.

The QX does have this note:

The charge for a new international operator at St. Pancras International would be determined based on space taken and vehicles operated;

 

[Sorcerer]

Worth considering though that according to the HS1 Network statement, Ashford's costs are approximately 1/3rd that of those for Ebbsfleet and Stratford International

Fee	St Pancras	Stratford International	Ebbsfleet International	Ashford International
Annual Qualifying Expenditure (QX)	£31.0m	£5.2m	£5.4m	£2.6m
Annual Long Term Charge (LTC)	£5.8m	£1.3m	£1.5m	£0.6m

(estimate of charge as of 2025/26)

The QX is the charge to cover day-to-day operating expenses of areas shared by operators at a station, the LTC is representing the long-term cost of maintenance and eventual need for replacement. Both charges are proportionate to the number of vehicle departures operated and the sizes of the respective zones utilised by each operator.

The QX does have this note:

So does this mean Ashford would be the better intermediate station to bring back? I originally would've said Stratford because it's like a London parkway station with an urban catchment but your numbers have got me thinking it might be otherwise.

 

[Mikey C]

Ashford is the better choice between the Kent stations but it's still only a rural station and doesn't justify limited stops for the cost of upkeeping border checks. Unless the UK joins the Schengen Area this will be a major hurdle in stations beyond dense urban centres.

It's hardly a rural station. Especially when you consider the whole of East Kent which it serves. Clearly there is a cost to serving Eurostar, but one which should be met, even if needs government help.

Eurostar services only stopped serving the station in 2020 after Covid, and it was never a permanent closure. If HS1 services are to expand, then it would be bizarre to continue to not serve it.

So does this mean Ashford would be the better intermediate station to bring back? I originally would've said Stratford because it's like a London parkway station with an urban catchment but your numbers have got me thinking it might be otherwise.

Stratford International isn't a London parkway station, it's still very much inner London. Ebbsfleet is if anything the London parkway station, with massive and underused car parks.

 

[Trainlog]

It would look a bit ridiculous though if another London station became the second stop, when the 2 Kent stops (which would add something genuinely useful) lay vacant, especially when the infrastructure is already there.

Ashford is the obvious one, as currently people in East Kent have to take a ridiculous journey back into London on domestic HS1 trains to take the Eurostar back out again. PLUS, it would also encourage trade and tourist links between East Kent and Northern France. Lille to Canterbury, Maidstone, Rye or Hastings via a change at Ashford.

Exactly, Kent has already lost a lot of infrastructure in the past 30 years such as...

• crosscountry links
• Manston airport
• Ramsgate and Folkestone ferry services
• International rail links

It would certainly come across as rather ridiculous if London got a second international station, but Kent is still denied any international rail links back. As you have pointed out, Ashford would serve the vast majority of Kent mainlines (except the Chatham mainline) and, to some extent, Sussex down to Eastbourne on the Marshlink.

These areas have tourist attractions in their own right and, if advertised well, would interest those travelling from France or Belgium. I mean, if Ashford International had international services back, I would be interested in using them to see areas in Northern France or Belgium.

If there was a genuine declaration of 'Ashford or Ebbsfleet international are never set to return' rather than saying 'we shall see' every couple of years, and in such a case a declaration would include the redevelopment of the abandoned station sections for other purposes, and potentially the dropping of the 'international' part on Ebbsfleet or Ashford stations.

Then in such a case most residents in the double back zone, would take the decision a lot better if Eurostar or other operators offered a compensation incentive of 'if you live in the former catchment areas of Ashford International or Ebbsfleet (such a catchment area would only be valid Kentside and ouside the Oyster zone if Stratford international recieved international services), if you pre book a ticket with us and choose your location on the dropdown menu, you will recieve either a free or severley discounted ticket to St Pancras when you travel with us, as a cancel out of the double back up to St Pancras'.

Some might call that ridiculous as an idea; however, if barriers to Ashford and Ebbsfleet include the fact that it would be costly to run, new EU checks, getting in security and customs officers, and hire station staff to work there, then surely a double-back cancel-out scheme would be cheaper, especially if it was a prebooked scheme, but would be a good enough solution to those stuck in the now double-back zone of Kent and Sussex.

 

[zwk500]

So does this mean Ashford would be the better intermediate station to bring back?

On costs it does. Of course the pre-covid growth numbers would suggest it's still not a good idea, but then there's the argument about the fact it was a pretty sparse service for all that time.

I originally would've said Stratford because it's like a London parkway station with an urban catchment

Stratford doesn't make any operational sense, and is the station with by far the least penalty to the potential market for not serving it. It's also not the London Parkway, that's Ebbsfleet.

All 3 stations have the problem that they're only sized for a fraction of the capacity of each train, so you need to start the trains from St Pancras anyway and therefore intermediate joiners are costing you potential fare money (no churn because of border rules).

Stratford: The market is actually limited largely to East/NE London due to other areas having better connections to St P., is well connected to St Pancras with relatively quick journey times by SE. It's way too early a stop on the LDHS services - it'd be like stopping all Avanti trains at Wembley Central or all LNERs at Alexandra Palace. It adds way too much journey time for what it offers, especially if the annual charges are c.£7.5m.
Ebbsfleet: Good for North Kent/SE london, well connected by road for M25 parkway role. however very little immediate demand, connections to surrounding rail services are pretty patchy (Platforms 5/6 are a good hike away from the international terminal), and it's still quite close to London so the option to travel in and double back is still present.
Ashford: Good for East Kent/Sussex, decent road connections for M20 parkway but limited scope for that role given additional driving time. Local Rail connections are good and well integrated to the station, it's also further from London to make the option of the double-back a significant negative factor. It's also closer to france so the journeys are more attractive for a day-tripping market if the right stop combos can be offered.

IMO, it's about even between Ebbsfleet and Ashford, but as Ashford has 1/3rd the costs of Ebbsfleet (largely, I suspect, due to the station being shared with NR), it'd be the sensible one to focus on. The question is whether you can stop enough trains there in a sensible pattern to have efficient staffing costs and still build a market that will cover your £3m/yr payments to LSPH and your own additional costs, and then whether doing so is more profitable than simply filling the train at St P. and running non-stop.

I expect the final point to be the achilles heel of any proposal to operate Kent stops, at least while the current border regime lasts (which shows no sign of relaxing any time soon).

but your numbers have got me thinking it might be otherwise.

On a pedantic note, they're not my numbers - they're the numbers the Station Owner provides as part of it's documentation.

 

[Zomboid]

All 3 stations have the problem that they're only sized for a fraction of the capacity of each train, so you need to start the trains from St Pancras anyway and therefore intermediate joiners are costing you potential fare money (no churn because of border rules).

There's no reason why they couldn't charge the same (or even higher) fares for Ebbsfleet or Ashford, as the service on offer is international travel, and the distance within the UK isn't really important to that.

A £15 premium to get the train from Ashford or Ebbsfleet may still attract custom from people who don't want to go to St Pancras for any reason.

 

[zwk500]

There's no reason why they couldn't charge the same (or even higher) fares for Ebbsfleet or Ashford, as the service on offer is international travel, and the distance within the UK isn't really important to that.

That's a fair (geddit!) point - the fares from Ashford would likely be identical. And while LSPH might lose out on a bit of shopping revenue at St Pancras, the train operator would likely replaced the missed coffee shop/bar revenue at St Pancras with a similar opportunity at Ashford (although of course they'd have the additional cost of the 2nd shop).

A £15 premium to get the train from Ashford or Ebbsfleet may still attract custom from people who don't want to go to St Pancras for any reason.

I suspect paying more would put people off from travelling at all, but having the same fare would still allow marketing to highlight the saving on a normal train fare to London.

 

[Zomboid]

suspect paying more would put people off from travelling at all, but having the same fare would still allow marketing to highlight the saving on a normal train fare to London

Perhaps, but personally I am happy to pay more for a flight to go from a convenient airport (eg Heathrow or Birmingham) rather than go all the way to Stansted or Gatwick to save £20 each.

There's possibly a tipping point in this kind of thing.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Perhaps, but personally I am happy to pay more for a flight to go from a convenient airport (eg Heathrow or Birmingham) rather than go all the way to Stansted or Gatwick to save £20 each.

There's possibly a tipping point in this kind of thing.

I think a lot of people are happy to pay that premium up to a point. I’m flying to Hong Kong in December and it would’ve been a significant saving to fly via Delhi with an extra 16 hours travel time, but I’ve paid around £100 more to go via Frankfurt on a faster route instead.

 

[Sorcerer]

It's hardly a rural station. Especially when you consider the whole of East Kent which it serves. Clearly there is a cost to serving Eurostar, but one which should be met, even if needs government help.

Eurostar services only stopped serving the station in 2020 after Covid, and it was never a permanent closure. If HS1 services are to expand, then it would be bizarre to continue to not serve it.

It might be more of an interchange compared to a typical rural station but it's much closer to being one than it is to being an urban station which is where high-speed rail is intended to serve. HS1 services can easily expand without having international services serving them unless you want to include low-cost operations like Ouigo or Avlo that trade convenience for cheaper pricing. But nobody wants to front the cost to do so because the catchment simply isn't worth it.

On costs it does. Of course the pre-covid growth numbers would suggest it's still not a good idea, but then there's the argument about the fact it was a pretty sparse service for all that time.

Stratford doesn't make any operational sense, and is the station with by far the least penalty to the potential market for not serving it. It's also not the London Parkway, that's Ebbsfleet.

All 3 stations have the problem that they're only sized for a fraction of the capacity of each train, so you need to start the trains from St Pancras anyway and therefore intermediate joiners are costing you potential fare money (no churn because of border rules).

Stratford: The market is actually limited largely to East/NE London due to other areas having better connections to St P., is well connected to St Pancras with relatively quick journey times by SE. It's way too early a stop on the LDHS services - it'd be like stopping all Avanti trains at Wembley Central or all LNERs at Alexandra Palace. It adds way too much journey time for what it offers, especially if the annual charges are c.£7.5m.
Ebbsfleet: Good for North Kent/SE london, well connected by road for M25 parkway role. however very little immediate demand, connections to surrounding rail services are pretty patchy (Platforms 5/6 are a good hike away from the international terminal), and it's still quite close to London so the option to travel in and double back is still present.
Ashford: Good for East Kent/Sussex, decent road connections for M20 parkway but limited scope for that role given additional driving time. Local Rail connections are good and well integrated to the station, it's also further from London to make the option of the double-back a significant negative factor. It's also closer to france so the journeys are more attractive for a day-tripping market if the right stop combos can be offered.

IMO, it's about even between Ebbsfleet and Ashford, but as Ashford has 1/3rd the costs of Ebbsfleet (largely, I suspect, due to the station being shared with NR), it'd be the sensible one to focus on. The question is whether you can stop enough trains there in a sensible pattern to have efficient staffing costs and still build a market that will cover your £3m/yr payments to LSPH and your own additional costs, and then whether doing so is more profitable than simply filling the train at St P. and running non-stop.

I expect the final point to be the achilles heel of any proposal to operate Kent stops, at least while the current border regime lasts (which shows no sign of relaxing any time soon).

Okay, I'm convinced Ashford might be the better contender if we had to bring back any intermediates (for what it's worth 30 minutes between isn't entirely unusual for express passenger traffic compared to the 7-15 minutes for Stratford/Ebbsfleet). However I will reiterate that until the UK joins Schengen it's highly unlikely we'll be seeing any new services at them because the border costs means it's not worth it compared to the passenger catchment. Being outside Schengen really holds back a lot of Channel Tunnel potential.

 

[Mikey C]

Okay, I'm convinced Ashford might be the better contender if we had to bring back any intermediates (for what it's worth 30 minutes between isn't entirely unusual for express passenger traffic compared to the 7-15 minutes for Stratford/Ebbsfleet). However I will reiterate that until the UK joins Schengen it's highly unlikely we'll be seeing any new services at them because the border costs means it's not worth it compared to the passenger catchment. Being outside Schengen really holds back a lot of Channel Tunnel potential.

Before Covid, intermediate stops were there, despite the UK not being in Schengen and very unlikely to join it, even if we had stayed in the EU.

The problem parts of the southeast like Ashford face, is the incorrect impression that all of the southeast is wealthy, and that any money should go to other parts of the UK. That Kent, for example, is all leafy prosperity like Tunbridge Wells, when much of it is actually quite poor, and in need of help. The cost of reopening the international facilities would be peanuts in relation to the money given to other poor regions of the UK.

 

[BRX]

Eurostar also used to serve Calais Frethun of course. Was that something that existed for political reasons or did it make commercial sense?

 

[LoonyToon]

Without wishing to rain on anyone's parade.....

Its looking like Eurostar are completely pulling out of Ashford at the beginning of October, allegedly.

 

[Bishops]

The problem parts of the southeast like Ashford face, is the incorrect impression that all of the southeast is wealthy, and that any money should go to other parts of the UK. That Kent, for example, is all leafy prosperity like Tunbridge Wells, when much of it is actually quite poor, and in need of help. The cost of reopening the international facilities would be peanuts in relation to the money given to other poor regions of the UK.

I understand that from an investment in the area kind of way but if large parts of the county are poor then who will be riding any international trains? I could well imagine that some business people will live in kent and may make use of the service but how many would need to board per service to help it just wash its face in costs?

And how many of the Eurostar are full leaving st pancras anyway so who would be able to get on?

 

[TheWierdOne]

Without wishing to rain on anyone's parade.....

It’s looking like Eurostar are completely pulling out of Ashford at the beginning of October, allegedly.

Have they even had anyone there at all since 2020? Isn’t pulling out just going to consist of taking their branding down and handing keys back to HS1

 

[martin2345uk]

Up till now they have still had the right to take a train into the station; though I believe only the managers still retain the competence.

 

[zwk500]

Have they even had anyone there at all since 2020? Isn’t pulling out just going to consist of taking their branding down and handing keys back to HS1

They've had the odd empty down there, I remember a bit of a flurry on one thread about it although it was just a route retention run.

 

[LoonyToon]

Empties will no longer be allowed into Ashford International.