The problems arise if either, the temperature goes above the designed "stress free" temperature (as any further rise in temperature may eventually cause the rail to buckle) or the rail stressing was not done when it should have been done or was not done correctly.
It’s not a problem if the temperature goes above the SFT (Stress Free temperature). The desired SFT in nearly all circumstances is 27C.
What
is a problem is the Critical Rail Temperarture, CRT, of the rail. There are three levels of CRT:
CRT (W) which means ’Watchman’ (Watchperson now I guess), ie someone needs to be out there checking the temperature (can be done remotely).
CRT (30/60) means a 30/60mph Emergency Speed Restriction ESR must be applied
CRT (20) means a 20mph ESR must be applied.
Each and every rail has a CRT.
For undisturbed track, on good ballast well consolidated, the CRT (W) is SFT +32C, ie 59C. CRT 30/60 is another +5C (64C) and CRT 20 a further 5C (69C). To get to CRT 30/60 with a rail temp of 64C requires an unshaded rail in an airtemp of 44/45C in full sunlight on a high summer afternoon. Note there is no ‘block the line’ CRT. Also note these ESRs serve two purposes, a) to reduce the force on the rail thereby reducing the risk of a buckle, and 2) to reduce the consequence of any derailment.
There are then various adjustments made to the CRTs if the track
is not undisturbed on good ballast, well consolidated. Mostly downwards.
For example, recent minor tamping reduces CRT (W) to SFT +22C (30/50mph another +4C, 20mph a further +3C) Major tamping is lower still. Recent renewals with new ballast all in place CRT (W) is SFT+15C (30/60mph another +3C, 20mph a further +2C). These CRTs rise over the days immediately following the work, assuming of course trains are passing over to consolidate the ballast.
There are other reductions to CRT for short radius curves, eg all CRTs are reduced by 4C for curves of radii 800m - 1500m, and more for lower radii. Similarly for non-concrete sleepers (-9C) or bullhead rail on any sleeper (-9C). There are many other factors to apply given localised site conditions.
The upwards adjustments are for where sleeper spacing is 28 per length (60foot) +2C, and 30 per length +4C.
So for the vast majority of track in this country, the CRT (W) is 59C (SFT 27C +22) and not an issue even on the hottest days. However on tightly curved sections, or after recent works, or with less robust components, the temperature can be much lower. As it can be where the SFT is not 27C, for whatever reason. It is the job of the relevant Rail Management Engineer in each Maintenance Depot to retain the Stressing records for every site, and to hold the CRTs, and action any mitigations. The exception is sites still under the control of renewals colleagues, where it will be the responsibility of the relevant engineer in that organisation.
I have mentioned before how I had to impose heat ESR in February for a renewal job. The track and rail was installed on a cold (lets say -4C) February night, we had to get out without stressing to avoid an overrun, it was on curve and naturally the ballast wasn’t consolidated. SFT was -4C. CRT was SFT -4C +15C for unconsolidated ballast, and -4C for the curve, so CRT = 7C. Weather next day was sunny with an airtemp of 13C. Rail temp the same. 20mph Speed restriction imposed, and I basically had to explain what I have written above in a long email to the then TOC MD.
This is all per my (old, but still this century) copy of the Pway maintenance manual. Some elements may have changed, but not much, as the laws of physics haven’t, as far as I’m aware. Finally, I should say that although this is based on decades of science, research and investigations following buckling incidents, it is still about risk management. Putting speed restrictions on does not eliminate the risk of buckles, but it does reduce the probability and consequence to a reasonable level. Sometimes other factors come into play, which means the risk control measures are ‘overtopped’ so to speak.
I hope this helps to explain what is a fairly complex subject.