Does Northern Use Dynamic Pricing for Advances?

[xotGD]

Hi All,

I thought that with Advances, there was a ticket quota at each price level, and once they've been sold, the price rises to the next tier. So the earlier you book, the cheaper the fare

However, is this actually the case? Looking ahead for my regular commute, the ticket prices are the same for each train 5, 6, 8, 10 weeks ahead. And none at the lowest price level that I sometimes manage to grab. This is looking at multiple services in each direction. However, checking for next week, there was at least one service with a lower price point than for future weeks.

So, does Northern drop the price of Advances, if the number being sold for a specific service is lower than desired? Is it sometimes better to delay purchase to get a last-minute(ish) bargain?

Have others had similar experience?

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's not unlikely that prices on commuter timed trains are lower in August because there is less commuting due to the holidays.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I thought that with Advances, there was a ticket quota at each price level, and once they've been sold, the price rises to the next tier. So the earlier you book, the cheaper the fare

It's not dynamic pricing as such, but I would expect availability to reflect anticipated demand. Commuter demand is noticeably weaker in August so cheaper tiers may be made available. Commuter demand is also noticeably weaker on Fridays so you may find that the cheaper tiers are only available on certain days of the week.

They don't have to make every tier available for every train- the quota for a specific tier on a specific train can be zero. If they know their train will be busy they'll zero off the lowest tiers.

 

[xotGD]

Thank you for your replies.

So it looks like the fares won't be falling if I wait, so I might as well grab what is available now. Still around 1/3 cheaper than walk up.

 

[Rover]

So it looks like the fares won't be falling if I wait, so I might as well grab what is available now. Still around 1/3 cheaper than walk up.

I'd keep en eye on them over the next few weeks as well and see how the prices move.

 

[30907]

Thank you for your replies.

So it looks like the fares won't be falling if I wait, so I might as well grab what is available now. Still around 1/3 cheaper than walk up.

IME prices move upwards but only fairly last minute (that might depend on the route though.

 

[setdown]

With Northern, I have seen multiple times where an advance ticket for a traditional commuter service is cheaper an hour or two before, compared to the night before. (Both advance tickets, just a cheaper tier available in the morning).

 

[gray1404]

I fell for this with Northern by booking an advanced ticket a couple of months in advance. Even on the day of travel the price had gone right down so I am never booking too far ahead with them again.

 

[xotGD]

I have just checked the Advance prices for me normal commute tomorrow and Tuesday, and they come in at only 20p cheaper than a flexible return. So no sign of last minute bargains in Airedale.

 

[Sonic1234]

I fell for this with Northern by booking an advanced ticket a couple of months in advance. Even on the day of travel the price had gone right down so I am never booking too far ahead with them again.

This is one situation (maybe the only one ) where TrainPal has an advantage, they'll refund the difference if this happens.

 

[Rail Ranger]

Note that in TfGM land Northern advances are not available on the day.

 

[xotGD]

This is one situation (maybe the only one ) where TrainPal has an advantage, they'll refund the difference if this happens.

Do you have to actively spot the reduction and claim, or do they do it automatically?

 

[Sonic1234]

Do you have to actively spot the reduction and claim, or do they do it automatically?

Automatically, it's called Price Hunter.

- only reference I could find quickly was a YouTube video from Trainpal. I used them once because of a promo code and I got £3.50 refunded because it found a cheaper advance, didn't know at that point this was a feature they had.

 

[Adam Williams]

It's unclear to me how TrainPal's "Price Hunter" functionality complies with the Advance Ticket Terms & Conditions which explicitly include a requirement not to refund the difference when an exchange involves a lower-priced fare.

I wonder if RDG are aware of it.

 

[Haywain]

It's unclear to me how TrainPal's "Price Hunter" functionality complies with the Advance Ticket Terms & Conditions which explicitly include a requirement not to refund the difference when an exchange involves a lower-priced fare.

Seems to me that they are not issuing a replacement (cheaper) ticket and refunding the difference but operating a form of price promise where they are footing the bill for that 'refund' without it affecting the money that goes to the train companies. In the same way that they will give a 15% discount an any tickets bought by someone who has 'invested' in their Traincard.

 

[Adam Williams]

Mmm. Entirely legitimate if they actually do eat the loss (though also entirely unsustainable in the long term).

 

[Haywain]

(though also entirely unsustainable in the long term).

You'd think so. I don't understand how they see it as a viable thing to offer but they must do.

 

[Sonic1234]

It's unclear to me how TrainPal's "Price Hunter" functionality complies with the Advance Ticket Terms & Conditions which explicitly include a requirement not to refund the difference when an exchange involves a lower-priced fare.

Are retailers themselves restricted to when they can refund a ticket, or is it only customers who have to comply with the rules and the retailers are the arbiters of this? There is variation on admin fees across retailers.

Could TrainPal be saying the customer has cancelled their journey, and we've determined them to have "valid reasons" to do so, and then they resell it at the new price?

Despite my reservations about them, and their unpopularity on here, they do seem quite popular. Maybe it's the next Trainline, they can bend the rules because they bring in the money.

These Chinese companies (also Shein, Temu, JoyBuy....) do seem to be willing to spend a lot building market share, they all have frequent sales, loyalty schemes, promo codes, cashback and have a gamified style e.g. "spin the wheel to get 2% off your next ticket......" type stuff.

 

[Adam Williams]

Are retailers themselves restricted to when they can refund a ticket

Yes, and a random sample is audited by RDG to assess compliance with the industry's rules.

 

[alistairlees]

These Chinese companies (also Shein, Temu, JoyBuy....) do seem to be willing to spend a lot building market share, they all have frequent sales, loyalty schemes, promo codes, cashback and have a gamified style e.g. "spin the wheel to get 2% off your next ticket......" type stuff.

I wonder, would any TOC do any of the things you have highlighted TrainPal as doing? I mean frequent sales, loyalty schemes, promo codes, cashback, or similar? Or even prize draws for free tickets?

 

[Haywain]

Maybe it's the next Trainline, they can bend the rules because they bring in the money.

What are you suggesting Trainline are doing?

 

[Sonic1234]

What are you suggesting Trainline are doing?

They don't follow other retailers on what can be sold as e-tickets.

 

[Haywain]

They don't follow other retailers on what can be sold as e-tickets.

That's pretty minor in the great scheme of things. And nothing like the possible financial impropriety by TrainPal that has been hinted at.

 

[Alex-B]

With Northern, I have seen multiple times where an advance ticket for a traditional commuter service is cheaper an hour or two before, compared to the night before. (Both advance tickets, just a cheaper tier available in the morning).

I have seen price changes on the day as well. I would guess that what is happening is that Advance Purchase on the Day (APOD) quotas for different price points can often be different than normal advances - they can be lower if they've got empty trains they weren't expecting, but can also be higher than an advance bought the day before. Generally (there may be exceptions during the holidays like this month) I've seen APOD tickets at commuter times into Manchester almost always tend to be the same or more expensive than the day before, or even not much cheaper than an anytime day return.

 

[mmh]

This is one situation (maybe the only one ) where TrainPal has an advantage, they'll refund the difference if this happens.

Do they check that it's happened and let you know?

 

[Sonic1234]

Do they check that it's happened and let you know?

Yes, it's automatic. There's some discussion above about how compliant with industry practice it is and who funds these refunds, but that's not your concern as a customer.

Trainpal have a bad reputation for giving invalid itineraries and poor customer service, particularly around refunds. They are an accredited retailer, so you are entitled to rely on any itinerary they give.

I wonder, would any TOC do any of the things you have highlighted TrainPal as doing? I mean frequent sales, loyalty schemes, promo codes, cashback, or similar? Or even prize draws for free tickets?

I can think of TOCs doing these things, although not as frequently. Most notably was the long spell of LNER cashback from Covid onwards and still available on Lloyds cards, with a lower rate and minimum spend now. Can't say I'm a fan myself of TrainPal's marketing, but I can see how the hype, game-style promotions and zany marketing of TrainPal does appeal to some customers (the TikTok crowd). It has the same issue as Domino's Pizza where there's always a deal and you expect there to be a deal but you worry if you got the best deal.

 

[em81]

If you look at the Buxton or Mid Cheshire lines there's better availability of Advance fares on the services booked as 4 carriages, than the ones booked as 2. Maybe they make them available for a fixed percentage of the total capacity?

 

[Fawkes Cat]

If you look at the Buxton or Mid Cheshire lines there's better availability of Advance fares on the services booked as 4 carriages, than the ones booked as 2. Maybe they make them available for a fixed percentage of the total capacity?

Or experience has shown more free seats on a four-car train than a -car? Or that any train will sell (say) 100 full price tickets and so there's more spare capacity to sell as advanced?

There are, no doubt, other possible explanations but I don't think the evidence we have is enough to point to one in particular.

 

[em81]

Or experience has shown more free seats on a four-car train than a -car? Or that any train will sell (say) 100 full price tickets and so there's more spare capacity to sell as advanced?

There are, no doubt, other possible explanations but I don't think the evidence we have is enough to point to one in particular.

Well I think there's another point about strengthened services. What I initially referred to was a scanerio where the 4pm train might get a max loading of 170 but still only 2 cars, while the 5pm would get a max loading of 220 but has spare seats throughout as it's strengthened. Another service part of the same diagram as the 5pm might still get 4 carriages but a maximum loading of only around 80.

There is another factor to consider too. Some Advance fares are for the first station to the last station. Others might be the 7th to the last station. In the case of my 4pm train with a max loading of 170, that might be the loading between the 2nd and 3rd stations, so by the 7th there might typically be some unoccupied seats.

 

[317 forever]

I fell for this with Northern by booking an advanced ticket a couple of months in advance. Even on the day of travel the price had gone right down so I am never booking too far ahead with them again.

I got caught out for the August Bank Holiday. I was considering 2 trains an hour apart, the one slightly earlier than I wanted was IIRC around £1.50 cheaper. Now it has gone down and matches the price of my later train I had settled for.

Journey is Manchester Piccadilly - Huyton in case you're curious. Admittedly there would have been fewer buses had I arrived earlier so I don't particularly mind.